China in the Indo-Pacific: March 2025

Normalcy at the Ladakh Border: In a recent interview, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi commented that India and China have achieved “normalcy” at the border. India and China notably clashed in 2020 on the Ladakh border, which resulted in the deaths of twenty Indian and four Chinese soldiers—the deadliest conflict between the two countries since the 1962 Sino-Indian war. Modi acknowledged the border dispute in the interview, saying that it created “significant tensions.” However, Modi expressed optimism regarding the India-China relationship, particularly after he met with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the BRICS summit, their first in-person talks since the clash.  

Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning welcomed Modi’s comments, saying they were a “positive statement on China-India relations” and that the two countries should be “partners that contribute to each other’s success.” The statements follow recent diplomatic engagements and an expected meeting between Modi and Xi indicating a warming of India-China relations.

Growing Bangladesh-China Ties Among Tensions With India: Bangladeshi leader and Nobel Laureate Mohamed Yunus embarked on his first visit to China from March 26 to 29. The trip coincided with the fiftieth anniversary of diplomatic relations between Bangladesh and China and is said by both countries to be the “most important visit by a Bangladeshi leader in fifty years.” The trip’s priorities included Bangladesh’s hopes to build a “revolution” in the manufacturing sector, with increased Chinese factories in Bangladesh. Yunus also met with Xi and was awarded an honorary doctorate from China’s prestigious Peking University.

Yunus’s visit highlights Bangladesh’s closer alignment with China while Bangladesh-India ties deteriorate over India’s sheltering of Bangaldesh’s ousted leader, and long-time ally of India, Sheikh Hasina. The worsening relationship between Bangladesh and India has hurt the vast medical tourism industry: India cites declining ties and staffing shortages as reasons for not issuing normal volumes of medical visas to Bangladesh. In 2023, most of India’s more than two million visas issued to Bangladesh were medical. Since August 2024, following the ouster of Sheikh Hasina, visas issued each working day went from between five and seven thousand to fewer than one thousand. The reduction in visas affects thousands of patients who visit Indian hospitals for critical care.

Meanwhile, China has stepped in to fill the gap that India has left. In early February, China announced the preparation of three hospitals designated for Bangladeshi patients. Furthermore, Chinese ambassador Yao Wen said that at least fourteen Chinese companies have invested more than $230 million in Bangladesh since August—the most of any country in that period. China overtook India as Bangladesh’s biggest trading partner in 2015. In 2024, bilateral trade reached $24 billion, $22.88 billion of which was Chinese exports.

Space Cooperation Between Pakistan and China: China and Pakistan have announced that the first foreign astronaut to visit China’s Tiangong Space Station will be Pakistani. The choice of Pakistan as the first guest reflects China’s partnership with Pakistan and the key project of its Belt and Road Initiative, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Additionally, China recently announced that its 2028 Chang’e-8 moon lander mission will carry a Pakistani rover.

The China Manned Space Agency (CMSA) expressed that Pakistan’s cooperation in the China Space Station program reflects the “deep-rooted ties between the two countries.” China’s Tiangong Space Station and the International Space Station (ISS), which is managed by fifteen countries, are the only two space stations orbiting Earth. The ISS is set to be retired in 2030, leaving Tiangong Space Station as the only official government-based space station. As such, for developing countries, Tiangong presents an opportunity for collaboration. The CMSA emphasized that China’s space program offers “cooperation opportunities to the global community.”

Submarine for Chinese Ally: A Chinese shipyard has completed another Hangor-class submarine for Pakistan’s navy, the second of eight in a 2015 agreement between the two countries. The submarines are believed to be an export version of China’s advanced 039A Yuan submarine, equipped with anti-ship missiles, torpedoes, and low acoustic signatures for its stealth capabilities. The Pakistan navy’s statement said the submarines will play a “pivotal role in maintaining the balance of power and maritime order in the region.” The project is part of Pakistan’s efforts to modernize its naval forces and reinforces China and Pakistan’s extensive military cooperation. Data from the Stockholm Institute of Peace found that from 2019 to 2024, 63 percent of China’s total arms exports went to Pakistan.

Fish-Aggregating Devices in the Indian Ocean: Discussions have begun between China and the Maldives regarding the possibility of installing fish-aggregating devices (FADs) in the Indian Ocean. Sparked by a dip in the Maldivian fishing industry, the FADs seek to collect data on the ocean’s chemical and physical composition and track fish movements. The Maldivian Fisheries Ministry stated that discussions with China were focused on strengthening cooperation but did not disclose further details. The installation of the FADs exemplifies China’s increased engagement in the Indian Ocean and raises alarms for Indian authorities, who were displeased with the Chinese vessel Xiang Yang Hong 3’s stop in Maldives in January 2024. The Maldives’ position in the Indian Ocean gives it strategic proximity to both Chinese and Indian interests.

Earthquake Hits Myanmar and Thailand: On March 28, a 7.7 magnitude earthquake hit central Myanmar and Thailand; the death toll currently sits at over two thousand and is expected to rise. After the disaster, China announced it would donate $14 million to relief efforts, including 1,200 tents, 8,000 blankets, and 40,000 first-aid kits. China’s state-run news agency said the government had sent 126 workers to assist with rescue efforts. By March 31, Chinese rescuers had saved six people. The Donald Trump administration’s cuts to humanitarian aid have left the United States absent from the scene, in contrast to the traditional role the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) has played in previous natural disasters in Southeast Asia, such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

Military Activity and Energy Exploration in the South China Sea: Satellite imagery showed that China deployed two long-range bombers near the Scarborough Shoal ahead of U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s visit to the Philippines, according to Reuters. The atoll has been a frequent site of confrontation between Beijing and Manila. During Hegseth’s visit, the United States held joint naval drills with Japan and the Philippines near Scarborough Shoal while a Chinese military vessel monitored from afar. A few days later, China National Offshore Oil Corporation discovered an oilfield in the eastern part of the South China Sea containing more than one hundred million tons of oil.

Malaysia Restricts Export of U.S. Chips to China: Under pressure from the United States, Malaysia’s Trade Minister Zafrul Aziz announced his country would attempt to curtail the illicit flow of Nvidia semiconductors to China. The advanced chips are crucial to developing artificial intelligence and subject to U.S. export controls. The Trump administration is concerned that Nvidia imports intended to service Malaysia’s growing data-center sector are being rerouted to China to develop its domestic artificial-intelligence innovation efforts. Earlier in the month, Singaporean police raided twenty-two locations and arrested nine people over the fraudulent sale of servers with Nvidia components to Malaysia. Two Singaporeans and one Chinese national were charged in the case. An investigation found the chips never made it to the Malaysian data center, prompting U.S. concerns of export-control circumvention.

Vietnam Approves Purchase of Chinese-Made Aircraft: Vietnam’s Ministry of Transport amended its approval procedure to facilitate VietJet Air’s purchase of a Chinese-made passenger jet produced by the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China. Vietnam’s first purchase was a win for China as it seeks to generate export interest in its domestic passenger jets. Carlyle Thayer, a professor emeritus of politics at the University of New South Wales, suggested Vietnam was currying favor with China amid heightened trade tensions with the United States.

Nine-Dash Line Controversy Pulls Toy Off Shelves: As the Vietnamese government sought to boost relations through trade, a Chinese-made toy generated its own geopolitical controversy. The Baby Three doll has been a commercial success in Vietnam since last fall. However, an observant netizen suggested that a marking on the doll’s face resembled China’s “nine-dash line,” a map of the South China Sea that Beijing uses to legitimate its expansive and invalid territorial claims to the waters. The resemblance and resulting viral outcry spurred Vietnam’s trade ministry to launch an investigation, saying it “affect[ed] national security and territorial sovereignty.” Sales of the Baby Three doll plummeted in a patriotic boycott.