Reported Plan to End Ukraine War

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Top of the Agenda

U.S. and Ukrainian officials are meeting in Kyiv today following a reported new U.S. peace proposal for Ukraine. Axios, which first reported the story, noted the plan was initially crafted with Russian, but not Ukrainian, input. Multiple news outlets have confirmed the existence of the U.S. plan, which was reportedly spurred by Washington’s twenty-point peace plan for Gaza. The plan for Ukraine would require the country to make significant concessions—including ceding areas of the eastern Donbas region to Russia, reducing the size of its armed forces by half, and stopping the use of certain types of weapons—in exchange for a U.S. security guarantee against future Russian aggression. Today’s talks aim “to discuss efforts to end the war,” a U.S. army spokesperson said.

What they’re saying. Ukraine did not immediately comment on the details, but President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on social media yesterday that Kyiv has supported “every strong and fair proposal aimed at ending this war.” Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister suggested that Moscow was pushing “a factory of unrealistic plans,” though he did not directly reference the U.S. proposal. The Kremlin declined to comment when asked about the reports. Despite the plan’s heavy demands on Ukraine, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote that “achieving a durable peace will require both sides to agree to difficult but necessary concessions.” European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas warned that any successful peace proposal would need “Ukrainians and Europeans on board.”

The context. A flurry of diplomacy throughout the year has so far failed to yield a ceasefire or meeting between the Ukrainian and Russian presidents. President Donald Trump, who campaigned on the promise to end the war on “day one” of his second term, recently imposed new U.S. sanctions on Russia’s oil sector meant to pressure Moscow toward peace. It also comes as Ukraine grapples with the fallout of a corruption probe at home and as European countries say Russia has stepped up aggression across the region, including alleged airspace violations and attacks on a Polish railroad for which Moscow denied responsibility.    

“Putin’s war in Ukraine is not just about territory—it’s a calculated move rooted in history to reclaim Russia's global influence and potentially redraw Europe’s borders. To safeguard European security, the West needs to revive its proven strategy: build a strong deterrent while pursuing dialogue to ensure long-term stability.”

—CFR Distinguished Fellow Thomas Graham in an Ukraine Policy Brief

Across the Globe

Israeli strikes in Gaza, Lebanon. Israeli strikes in Gaza killed at least twenty-five people yesterday, testing the ongoing truce. Israel said it was responding to fire against its soldiers. Israel also carried out air strikes in southern Lebanon yesterday, a day after its forces struck a Palestinian refugee camp in the country and killed thirteen people. The Israeli military said without evidence that the strikes targeted Hezbollah positions and that it had warned people ahead of time to depart certain villages.

U.S.-Saudi deals on AI... Saudi Arabia’s state-backed artificial intelligence (AI) company Humain will work with Elon Musk’s startup xAI to build a data center in Saudi Arabia that could be the company’s largest outside the United States. Humain also reached deals with Nvidia and Amazon this week that would provide chips for data centers in Riyadh. The announcements were made as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visited Washington.

…and rare earths. U.S. mining company MP Materials will partner with the U.S. military and Saudi Arabia’s state mining company to build a plant in Saudi Arabia that will process and refine rare earth minerals sourced from several countries. The U.S. government took a stake in the company earlier this year.

U.S. mediation in Sudan. The United States will step up efforts to mediate an end to Sudan’s war after a request from bin Salman, Trump said yesterday. The United States has backed a truce proposal that Sudanese paramilitaries agreed to earlier this month, but the Sudanese government did not. 

2030 forecast for G20. By the end of this decade, economic growth among Group of Twenty countries will fall to 2.9 percent, down from 3.2 percent in 2025, according to a new forecast by the International Monetary Fund. That’s the weakest growth since the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. The IMF said strained public budgets and aging populations in advanced economies were factors contributing to the expected drop.

U.S. military sales to India. The State Department approved the sale of around $93 million worth of Javelin anti-tank missile systems and Excalibur precision-guided artillery munitions to India, the Defence Security Cooperation Agency said in two separate notices. It is the first major sale of defense equipment to New Delhi after the U.S. hiked tariffs on India earlier this year, straining ties. 

Arrest in Mexico murder case. Mexican authorities arrested a suspect accused of orchestrating the killing this month of mayor Carlos Manzo, an outspoken critic of drug cartels. Manzo’s killing prompted countrywide protests calling for the government to do more to counter violent crime. 

COP31 compromise. Turkey will host next year’s UN climate conference, but Australia will lead the negotiations, Australia’s climate minister said yesterday at COP30. The two countries had been in a protracted dispute over hosting rights. Turkey will be the latest in a string of Middle Eastern countries that have recently hosted COP, including Azerbaijan, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates.

What’s Next

• Today, the funeral of former Vice President Dick Cheney is held in Washington, DC.

• Today, Tonga holds general elections.

• Tomorrow, the COP30 summit is due to conclude in Brazil.