Welcome to Climate Realism

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Welcome to Climate Realism, the flagship newsletter of the Climate Realism Initiative at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). Each month, we’ll share the latest insights and analysis from CFR’s climate and energy experts, recent events and podcasts, and the news we’re watching from across the country and around the world.  

The Climate Realism Initiative seeks to reset a policy conversation that has become worryingly captured by magical thinking on both the right and left.  On the right, this often takes the form of blindness to the costs of climate change. U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, for example, speaking at a major energy conference earlier this year, pledged that, “The Trump administration will treat climate change for what it is—a global physical phenomenon that is the side effect of building the modern world.” Of President Joe Biden’s climate policies, he went on to say, “The cure was far more destructive than the disease.” 

Though Secretary Wright described himself in the same speech as a “climate realist,” his statements waved away the very real economic, humanitarian, and environmental devastation that will occur in the wake of a warming world.  

Magical thinking is hardly the sole preserve of the right, however. One of the rallying cries common among climate activists is “Keep 1.5 Alive,” a reference to the global commitment to limit overall warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. That goal— already considered a stretch when it was enshrined in the 2015 Paris Agreement—has become even more challenging after another decade of rising emissions.  

Reaching it now would demand historic levels of public and private investment, rapid technological development and deployment, vast construction projects, reshaped heavy industry, and majority public and political support in both current and future major emitters. However desirable these things may be, none of them are forthcoming on anything close to the requisite scale.

Ground Truths 

The time for magical thinking on climate change is long past. The reality is that the planet is on pace to warm by 3°C by the end of this century—double the most ambitious Paris goal. But this level of warming can’t just be ignored, baked in as the cost of doing business. A 3°C world will pose immense risks to the United States and other countries, threatening economic growth, international security, ecological stability, and human health and well-being. The fact that the world is set to blow through its climate goals should be a cause for alarm, not complacency. 

Scaling deployment of increasingly affordable clean energy technologies and boosting investment in innovation are critical steps for minimizing future climate risks. But even though the climate benefits of a global transition to zero-carbon energy are clear, the geopolitical reality is more complicated for major oil and gas producers like the United States. China already dominates global manufacturing for solar panels, lithium-ion batteries, and certain wind energy technologies, and it’s not taking its foot off the accelerator. Beijing drew more than three-quarters of global clean energy manufacturing investment last year. If the United States is going to continue to enjoy the foreign policy and economic benefits of being an energy exporter, it will need to find a way to compete in the energy industries of the future.  

Finally, emissions reductions in the United States cannot solve the climate challenge on their own. No individual country—even a large emitter like the United States—accounts for anywhere near a majority of global emissions on a cumulative or annual basis. To avoid the worst consequences of climate change, the reality is that the United States will need to find new foreign policy levers to pull to catalyze emissions reductions beyond its borders.  

These are the climate realities that American citizens and policymakers alike will need to grapple with to have an honest conversation about the perils and opportunities facing the United States in the coming decades. The Climate Realism Initiative is dedicated to fostering that conversation, capitalizing on the range of perspectives and areas of expertise of its affiliated fellows and inviting views from experts outside CFR. I hope you will follow along on our website and through this newsletter in the months to come, and participate in the discussion by sharing your thoughts at [email protected].