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Russia’s early setbacks in its invasion of Ukraine could have foreclosed on some of President Vladimir Putin’s sweeping war objectives, but he is unlikely to relent given the conflict’s momentum.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine—the largest and most destructive war in Europe since World War II—has dramatically heightened tensions between Russia and Western countries. Since the war began in February 2022, Washington and its allies have armed and funded the Ukrainian government while imposing a suite of sanctions and other measures aimed at isolating Moscow from global trade and financial markets.
Now in its third year, the war has triggered renewed concerns about European security and reinvigorated the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which has since expanded to include Finland and Sweden. It has also led to a major adjustment in global trade patterns, pushing Europe to reduce its economic dependence on Russian energy exports and forcing Russia to find new buyers. Momentum is also growing in the United States and elsewhere to seize sovereign Russian assets held in European banks and use them to pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine, the cost of which could potentially exceed $1 trillion.
Experts say Ukraine’s battlefield achievements—which have far exceeded initial expectations—are critically dependent on U.S. aid. But despite ongoing congressional support for aid to Ukraine, partisan divisions on the issue seem likely to persist. Many Republicans, souring on the prospect of what they say is a losing battle, have turned against providing continued assistance.
The war has also deepened Russia’s relationship with China and reoriented Russian foreign policy toward new partners in the Global South. In a growing number of African countries, the private military company Wagner Group—part of Putin’s efforts to expand Moscow’s sphere of influence—provides security services and military support to governments. Russia has also developed closer military relations with Iran and North Korea, both of which have supplied Moscow with weapons and ammunition for its war effort. Meanwhile, Russia’s cyber operations campaign against Ukraine has raised broader fears among Western governments about information safety and security.
Compare Candidates on Russia–Ukraine
Kamala Harris
Harris says the United States will back Ukraine’s defensive efforts against Russia for “as long as it takes” to counter the threat that a Russian victory would pose to the rest of Europe. She has represented the United States at peace talks on Ukraine and encouraged Congress to give Kyiv tens of billions of dollars in financial assistance.
Donald Trump
Trump says that he wouldn’t commit to approving additional U.S. aid to Ukraine if reelected. As president, he cultivated warmer relations with Russia, though he also extended sanctions on Moscow over its 2014 annexation of Ukrainian territory and withdrew from a major U.S.-Russia arms control treaty.
More on Russia–Ukraine
Ten charts illustrate the extraordinary level of support the United States has provided Ukraine in its war against Russian invaders.
The new U.S. aid package will reestablish a critical flow of weapons to Ukraine’s military, but the war will hinge greatly on which side can ramp up and sustain its firepower and troop numbers in the months ahead.