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April 25, 2018

Ireland
Irish Flag and Apple Logo Tax Avoidance and the Irish Balance of Payments

At this point, profit shifting by multinational corporations doesn’t distort Ireland’s balance of payments; it constitutes Ireland’s balance of payments.

May 24, 2018

Turkey
Turkey Could Use a Few More Reserves, and a Somewhat Less Creative Banking System Turkey Could Use a Few More Reserves, and a Somewhat Less Creative Banking System

Turkey’s currency initially rallied after the central bank raised interest rates yesterday. Perhaps a bit more orthodoxy is all it will take to restore a modicum of stability to Turkey’s markets. The…

May 21, 2018

Argentina
Argentina: Sustainable, Yes, with Adjustment.  But Sustainable with A High Probability? Argentina: Sustainable, Yes, with Adjustment. But Sustainable with A High Probability?

Probably only connoisseurs of IMF Access Policy debates understand the importance of being judged “sustainable with a high probability” by 19th Street. That’s what unlocks the keys to the kingdom,…

May 18, 2018

International Economic Policy
A Bad Deal on Currency (with Korea) A Bad Deal on Currency (with Korea)

Korea has indicated that it will, very gradually, start to disclose a bit more about its direct activities in the foreign exchange market. The Korean announcement presumably was meant to front-run it…

May 16, 2018

Argentina
How Many Reserves Does a Country Like Argentina Need? How Many Reserves Does a Country Like Argentina Need?

The IMF’s reserve metric tends to overstate the reserve needs of current account surplus countries with little external debt, and understates the reserve needs of current account deficit countries wi…

May 11, 2018

Eurozone
Ireland Exports its Leprechaun Ireland Exports its Leprechaun

Irish tax distortions have a material impact on aggregate eurozone economic data.

May 8, 2018

China
Disaggregating the Fall in China's Current Account Surplus Since 2007 Disaggregating the Fall in China's Current Account Surplus Since 2007

China's current account surplus is almost certainly about $100 billion larger than officially reported, and the falling current account surplus masks a persistent manufacturing surplus.

May 3, 2018

China
The Rising Bilateral Deficit with China and the Negotiations Over China 2025 The Rising Bilateral Deficit with China and the Negotiations Over China 2025

A short review of the March U.S. trade data and a lot of speculation about the arc of the Sino-American economic relationship in light of the non-negotiability of Made in China 2025.

April 24, 2018

International Economic Policy
Asia's Central Banks and Sovereign Funds Are Back Asia's Central Banks and Sovereign Funds Are Back

East Asia (China, Japan, and the NIEs) ran a $600 billion current account surplus in 2017. "Official" (central bank and sovereign fund) outflows accounted for about half of that. Asia's foreign excha…