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August 20, 2018

Turkey
Framing Turkey’s Financial Vulnerabilites: Some Rhymes with the Asian Crisis, but Not a Repeat Framing Turkey’s Financial Vulnerabilites: Some Rhymes with the Asian Crisis, but Not a Repeat

Turkey has some similarities with the Asian crisis countries back in the 1990s, but also important differences. When emerging-market crisis typologies are updated to reflect the events of 2018, Turke…

July 30, 2018

International Economic Policy
Gone Fishing

I am planning to take the next few weeks off—no blogging. That at least is the plan, barring a major financial surprise. It thus seems a natural time to look back at the topics I have covered in t…

July 26, 2018

Vietnam
Is Vietnam the New China? Is Vietnam the New China?

Vietnam appears to be taking a page out of China's post-WTO playbook by intervening to keep its currency weak and its exports strong.

July 23, 2018

China
China’s Currency Is Back in Play China’s Currency Is Back in Play

China's currency is getting awfully close to some key levels, levels where in the past China has resisted further depreciation. The signals China sends from here on will be critical.

July 26, 2018

NAFTA
Oil Production Has Moved North, and Auto Production South Oil Production Has Moved North, and Auto Production South

Both Mexico and the U.S. are in a sense adjusting to (mild) oil shocks ...

July 16, 2018

Puerto Rico
Looking Back on Fiscal 2018 as Puerto Rico Starts a New Fiscal Year Looking Back on Fiscal 2018 as Puerto Rico Starts a New Fiscal Year

Sales tax revenues have recovered. Fiscal year 2019, which started in July, should be a good year thanks to Federal disaster aid. The real question though is what happens when Federal aid starts to f…

April 25, 2018

Ireland
Irish Flag and Apple Logo Tax Avoidance and the Irish Balance of Payments

At this point, profit shifting by multinational corporations doesn’t distort Ireland’s balance of payments; it constitutes Ireland’s balance of payments.

July 10, 2018

China
My Latest Take on China's Foreign Exchange Intervention Proxies My Latest Take on China's Foreign Exchange Intervention Proxies

This one is for my currency trading friends...

July 9, 2018

China
Staff members set up Chinese and U.S. flags for a meeting between Chinese Transport Minister Li Xiaopeng and U.S. Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao at the Ministry of Transport of China in Beijing, China April 27, 2018 U.S.-China Trade War: How We Got Here

Background reading for the trade war with China.

July 2, 2018

China
Devaluation Risk Makes China’s Balance of Payments Interesting (Again) Devaluation Risk Makes China’s Balance of Payments Interesting (Again)

A deep dive into the details of China's balance of payments over the last few quarters of data. During the dollar's depreciation in 2017 and the first quarter of 2018, it looks like China was adding …