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April 25, 2018

Ireland
Irish Flag and Apple Logo Tax Avoidance and the Irish Balance of Payments

At this point, profit shifting by multinational corporations doesn’t distort Ireland’s balance of payments; it constitutes Ireland’s balance of payments.

June 14, 2018

Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets Under Pressure Emerging Markets Under Pressure

Emerging markets have come under a bit of pressure recently, with the combination of the dollar’s rise and higher U.S. ten year rates serving as the trigger. The Governor of the Reserve Bank of India…

June 11, 2018

Canada
O Canada

A trade war with Canada makes no strategic sense.

June 7, 2018

Germany
Merkel and Scholz Have Put the IMF in a Pickle Merkel and Scholz Have Put the IMF in a Pickle

Germany seems to have ruled out all the mechanisms for eurozone fiscal expansion that the IMF liked…

June 5, 2018

China
How Durable is China’s Rebalancing? How Durable is China’s Rebalancing?

I increasingly suspect my view on Chinese “rebalancing” is at odds with the current consensus (or perhaps just with a plurality of the investment bank analysts and financial journalists who watch Chi…

June 4, 2018

United States
Italian flag over Quirinal Palace. Trade Deals or Macroeconomic Shocks?

With ongoing euro uncertainty in Italy, financial turmoil in Argentina and Turkey, and potential fiscal risks to demand in Asia, does the Trump administration's focus on trade deals miss the larger m…

May 24, 2018

Turkey
Turkey Could Use a Few More Reserves, and a Somewhat Less Creative Banking System Turkey Could Use a Few More Reserves, and a Somewhat Less Creative Banking System

Turkey’s currency initially rallied after the central bank raised interest rates yesterday. Perhaps a bit more orthodoxy is all it will take to restore a modicum of stability to Turkey’s markets. The…

May 21, 2018

Argentina
Argentina: Sustainable, Yes, with Adjustment.  But Sustainable with A High Probability? Argentina: Sustainable, Yes, with Adjustment. But Sustainable with A High Probability?

Probably only connoisseurs of IMF Access Policy debates understand the importance of being judged “sustainable with a high probability” by 19th Street. That’s what unlocks the keys to the kingdom,…

June 19, 2018

Cybersecurity
NSA The Theft and Reuse of Advanced Offensive Cyber Weapons Pose A Growing Threat

Almost exactly a year ago, North Korea and Russia reused a vulnerability stolen from the U.S. government to conduct the WannaCry and NotPetya ransomware attacks. Is the theft and reuse of vulnerabili…

May 18, 2018

International Economic Policy
A Bad Deal on Currency (with Korea) A Bad Deal on Currency (with Korea)

Korea has indicated that it will, very gradually, start to disclose a bit more about its direct activities in the foreign exchange market. The Korean announcement presumably was meant to front-run it…