2,146 Results for:

February 15, 2018

United States
Trump’s Tax Success Is at the Expense of His Trade Agenda Trump’s Tax Success Is at the Expense of His Trade Agenda

It looks like a combination of tax cuts and spending increases will raise the U.S. fiscal deficit by about 2 percentage points of GDP (that’s the number Krugman used; Goldman’s US economics team puts…

February 12, 2018

China
The Belt and Road Initiative Didn't Quite Live up to its Hype in 2017 The Belt and Road Initiative Didn't Quite Live up to its Hype in 2017

China's balance of payments data doesn't show any material increase in the pace of offshore lending.

February 9, 2018

United States
The Impact of Tax Arbitrage on the U.S. Balance of Payments The Impact of Tax Arbitrage on the U.S. Balance of Payments

I sat down with the FT's Matt Klein for an Alphachat podcast on the international provisions in the December tax reform.

February 7, 2018

United States
Do Not Overlook the December Trade Data Do Not Overlook the December Trade Data

The increase in the non-oil trade deficit in December should be getting more attention. It matters more than the year-over-year rise in the 2017 trade deficit.

January 24, 2018

United States
Adjustment Is Hard, Especially if it Involves the Dollar Adjustment Is Hard, Especially if it Involves the Dollar

Trump’s tax cut has not, to date, unleashed a wave of global demand for U.S. dollar assets. In fact, the dollar weakened as prospects for the tax cut—and associated rise in the U.S. federal budget…

January 17, 2018

China
A Few Words on China’s Holdings of U.S. Bonds A Few Words on China’s Holdings of U.S. Bonds

A primer on China reserve watching.

January 16, 2018

Thailand
Thailand is Really, and I Mean Really, Close to Meeting the Treasury’s Manipulation Criteria Thailand is Really, and I Mean Really, Close to Meeting the Treasury’s Manipulation Criteria

The Treasury's April foreign exchange report should be interesting. Thailand hasn't been included in past foreign exchange reports.  Yet it is likely to meet all three of the criteria set out in t…

October 17, 2017

China
Bitcoin and the Yuan Bitcoin and the Yuan

This is a guest post by Cole Frank, a research associate at the Council on Foreign Relations. China watchers are always looking for new ways to gauge capital flows and pressure on the yuan. The mo…

January 3, 2018

China
China’s Impact on the U.S. Bond Market Gets Too Much Attention.   And Europe's Too Little China’s Impact on the U.S. Bond Market Gets Too Much Attention. And Europe's Too Little

The ECB has almost certainly had a bigger impact on U.S. rates over the last three years than the PBOC, without buying (or selling) any Treasuries.

December 15, 2017

United States
Why The Trade Balance (Still) Matters Why The Trade Balance (Still) Matters

It is a useful indicator (even for the U.S.)