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April 11, 2005

United States
Skating on incredibly thin ice

Altogether, the circumstances seem to be as dangerous and intractable as any I can remember, and I can remember quite a lot. What really concerns me is that there seems to be so little willingness o…

January 8, 2005

Has the broad dollar fallen enough

A standard rule of thumb, mentioned by Paul Blustein in his excellent look at the impact of a falling dollar on US trade last week, is that a 10% fall in the broad dollar leads to a $100 billion fall…

June 30, 2005

Capital Flows
CNOOC (once again)

The CNOOC bid presumably is motivated by two things. One, Beijing has plenty of cash, and already holds more Treasuries than it wants, so it wants to diversify its portfolio. As I argued earlier, C…

June 19, 2005

China
Two articles on China. One good. One not so good.

Reuters has done a nice wrap up of what we know -- and more importantly what we don’t know -- about how China manages its reserves. They correctly note that the TIC data misses so much that it, alon…

June 22, 2005

Capital Flows
The joys of being a creditor nation

China is on track to add between $250 and $300 billion to its reserves this year. That is a lot of money. Enough to have an impact on global bond markets. Enough to buy several oil companies. As…

November 13, 2004

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Will partial privatization of social security pass the global test?

This post is primarily about the implications of partial privatization of social security on the budget, not about its overall merits. For what it is worth, I personally think good old pay-as-you-go …

August 8, 2005

United States
Once again, trade deficits do matter — and they really do have to be financed

Brad DeLong and the folks over at Angry Bear have already beat up on this rather ridiculous Donald Luskin argument that the US does not take on debt when it runs a trade deficit.   I hardly need to …

October 2, 2005

Europe
Germany 1, France 0? Plus some musings about the politics of globalization

I agreed with a lot of what Fareed Zakaria wrote about Germany - certainly I would agree that Germany has done a lot more reform than France over the past few years.Compare Germany with France. In Ge…

August 19, 2005

Capital Flows
Iraq: What happened to US plans for an extreme makeover of the economy?

I agree with Mark Thoma more often than naught.   I certainly share his concern about the shifting sectoral composition of output (translated from economese to English, more jobs in housing), and, li…

October 16, 2005

China
Is Tim Adams a closet Democrat? And some other musings on Snow’s trip to China

Clearly not, given his role in the Bush/ Cheney 2004 campaign. But he also seems to think China should develop a social insurance system to help spur domestic consumption.   Read Friday's Wall St…