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July 20, 2006

Financial Markets
Is bad news for the world good news for the dollar …

I have long been puzzled by the notion that the currency of a country with a 6% of GDP trade deficit and a 7% of GDP (maybe a bit less in q1 … ) constitutes a “safe haven.”   Safe havens are supposed…

Blog Post by Brad W. Setser Follow the Money

January 11, 2007

Financial Markets
Cracks in the GCC’s commitment to the dollar peg?

From Simon Derrick of the Bank of New York. Reuters reports that central bank governors of the UAE will meet in March to discuss currency pegs. The agency cites Governor Sultan Nasser al-Suweidi wh…

Blog Post by Brad W. Setser Follow the Money

February 2, 2007

Financial Markets
A trillion dollars gets my attention, whether it comes from the PBoC or the yen carry trade

Tim Lee of Pi Economics estimates that about a $1 trillion of private money is now betting that the yen will stay fairly weak.    Tim Lee, of Pi Economics, reckons as much as $1 trillion may be stake…

saudiusjapan
Blog Post by Brad W. Setser Follow the Money

April 11, 2007

Emerging Markets
It is hard for the world to diversify away from the dollar when the world’s holdings of dollars need to rise by about a trillion a year

OK, I probably should strike “world” and insert “the world’s governments” instead.  It is pretty clear that central banks and oil investment funds provided the bulk of the financing the US needed in …

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Blog Post by Brad W. Setser Follow the Money

September 17, 2007

Financial Markets
The first true twenty-first century financial crisis?

Larry Summers – picking up on a phrase perhaps first used by Michel Camdessus -- liked to call the Mexican crisis the first financial crisis of the 21st century.   Mexico’s decision to exhaust its re…

Blog Post by Brad W. Setser Follow the Money