June 25, 2009
In October 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in Ukraine. Read the update.
Ukraine continues to face internal political turmoil and tense rela…
March 18, 2010
Sudan faces the prospect of renewed violence between north and south over the next twelve to eighteen months. Overwhelmingly in favor of independence, the south will either secede peacefu…
July 12, 2010
There is growing concern of renewed war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant Islamist group. Since the last major Israel-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon in the summer of 2006…
September 21, 2010
In February 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in Nigeria. Read the update.
Elections in Nigeria scheduled for January 2011 may well be the fi…
May 18, 2011
Crisis in the Congo describes the Democratic Republic of the Congo's near-term vulnerability to convulsive electoral violence and renewed rebellion on its periphery. In this Contingency P…
April 11, 2012
In April 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in the South China Sea. Read the update.
The risk of conflict in the South China Sea is signif…
August 9, 2012
Iraq remains a fragile state deeply traumatized and riven by thirty years of war, sanctions, occupation, and civil strife. Although there are numerous positive signs of progress in Ir…
September 6, 2012
In March 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in Venezuela. Read the update.
In the coming months, Venezuela could experience significant po…
January 9, 2013
Kenya is at risk of repeating the violence that marred its 2007 presidential election, during which 1,133 died and nearly 600,000 were displaced from their homes. Political order in K…
April 22, 2013
Tensions have risen to dangerous levels between Japan and China over a small group of uninhabited islands in the East China Sea, called the Senkaku by the Japanese and the Diaoyu by t…