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October 30, 2006

Financial Markets
Can David Rosenberg out-Roubini Roubini?

Nouriel “If you are going to be a bear, might as well be a grizzy” Roubini has a bit of competition.  Merrill’s David Rosenberg now puts the odds of a recession at up to 80% “HSBC, US Bank ... now pe…

August 16, 2006

PIMCO is betting on the continuation of Bretton Woods 2

At least that is how I read the latest Paul McCulley/ Andrew Balls paper.   By the way, Andrew Balls, welcome to the world of financial opinion journalism … otherwise known as economic analysis and m…

July 9, 2006

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
A fringe benefit from over-paid CEOs

CEOs do still pay taxes.Edmund Andrews in the New York Times: The main reason [for the smaller than expected deficit] is a big spike in corporate tax receipts, which have nearly tripled since 2003,…

February 4, 2007

Financial Markets
The mechanics of the carry trade, revealed … (sort of)

Andrew Rozanov of State Street knows a thing or two about how official institutions manage their money (that is a big part of his current job) and a thing or two about Japan (he was based in Tokyo fo…

April 13, 2007

China. On track to add $500b to its reserves in 2007, heading toward $2 trillion fast …

Please allow me a bit of latitude.  China won’t add $500b to its reserves in 2007 for the simple reason that the central bank will sell some of its reserves to the state investment company.  Moreover…

April 22, 2007

China’s macroeconomic policy dilemmas

Like many with strong opinions, I sometimes criticize (politely, I hope) press coverage of topics that I follow closely.  For example, I have long thought that coverage of China’s consumption boom sh…

August 11, 2007

Emerging Markets
Russian ruble, safe haven in times of trouble?

Russia let the ruble appreciate against its euro/ dollar basket this week.   Not by all that much.   But this was also a week many emerging market currencies fell against the dollar, as part of a gen…

October 25, 2007

Monetary Policy
Central banks are buying — not selling - dollars.

Central banks are not selling dollars.  Some analysts tend to put a bit too much emphasis on changes in the dollar’s share of global reserves – and a bit too little emphasis on the increase in total …

August 5, 2007

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Taxing the kings of private equity like the rest of us

Cheers to the New York Times,  the Financial Times, the Economist,  Charlie Rangel, Robert Rubin, Alan Blinder, Paul Krugman, Warren Buffet (I think it is implied here), Bill Gross, Greg Mankiw (extr…

January 12, 2008

Capital Flows
Wall Street, the new development frontier …

The children of China’s revolution have turned into capitalists. The China Development Bank now apparently aspires to be a commercial bank, not a policy bank limited to helping finance investment in …