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August 13, 2019

China
On Designating China as a Currency Manipulator…

China really did manipulate its currency before the global crisis.  It really doesn't do so now.   But how China's manages its currency still matters for the global economy.

On Designating China as a Currency Manipulator…

August 13, 2019

United States
Election 2020: Beto O’Rourke, Democratic Presidential Candidate

When Richard Nixon lost California’s governor’s race in 1962, political pundits declared his dream of becoming president dead. After all, winning presidential candidates usually come off of electoral…

Beto O’Rourke

August 12, 2019

United States
$500 Billion in Dividends out of the Double Irish with a Dutch twist (with a bit of Help from Bermuda)

Tax is often the biggest factor in the balance of payments. U.S. firms operating in Bermuda paid $229 billion in dividends back to their U.S. parents in 2018. That’s more than the United States earne…

$500 Billion in Dividends out of the Double Irish with a Dutch twist (with a bit of Help from Bermuda)

July 30, 2019

United States
Election 2020: Jay Inslee, Democratic Presidential Candidate

The two dozen candidates competing for the Democratic presidential nomination are all hoping to get to Washington. But so far no U.S. president has come from Washington. Governor Jay Inslee hopes to …

Jay Inslee

July 30, 2019

Economics
Summer Holiday

I am taking a few days off— If you are desperate for analysis of China’s balance of payments, I would recommend my disaggregation of China’s current account adjustment last year—and my analysis of…

July 24, 2019

International Economic Policy
The IMF (Still) Cannot Quit Fiscal Consolidation…

The IMF's country-level fiscal advice has an adding up problem. The IMF (over time) wants most countries to match the euro zone and head toward fiscal balance. That though would leave the world short…

A woman walks past the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington, U.S., May 10, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas

July 18, 2019

China
The Continuing Chinese Drag on the Global Economy

Trump's trade policies aren't the only reason for the slowdown in global trade …

The Continuing Chinese Drag on the Global Economy

July 17, 2019

North Korea
Can North Korea Be Deterred?

The United States’ deterrence record is spotty vis-à-vis North Korea, and a judgement of its success or failure hinges on how the behaviors or actions targeted by deterrence are defined. 

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July 16, 2019

Ireland
Finding Ireland in the U.S. Balance of Payments Data ...

Turns out a small and very green island dominates financial flows from "other euro area countries."  Ireland's impact, of course, is a case study in the role that "trade-in-tax" plays in driving g…

Finding Ireland in the U.S. Balance of Payments Data ...

July 16, 2019

Cybersecurity
Building Resilience in the Fifth Domain

The time for new cyber strategies is over. The United States should work to achieve "cyber resilience," in which we actively manage the risk posed by even the most persistent nation-state actors.

A researcher of Hauri, an IT security software company investigating computer viruses, works at a lab of the company in Seoul March 22, 2013.