The q2 US current account data poses two puzzles. The first is the sharp drop off in official inflows in q2.   They fell from $150b in q1 to $70b in q2.   That fall was, incidentally, offset – mechan…

Many analysts believe – extrapolating from the q4 data and the stabilization of the non-oil trade deficit – that the US current account deficit has peaked.  Stephen Jen is the most prominent example,…

Mark Whitehouse highlighted the deterioration in the US income balance in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal.   The US paid more in interest and dividends on its external borrowing (and foreign equity i…

As Michael Mandel has noted, the US income balance improved in the first quarter – contrary to the expectations of “pessimists” like me.  I would say “realists” – rising debt usually implies rising i…