166 Results for:

March 9, 2005

United States
Beware, should Norway ever diversify its petroleum fund: more than you want to know about the market for US debt

The fastest growing US export: Debt, without a doubt.Exports of long-term debt securities have grown from $404.5 billion in 2001 to $890 billion in 2004. That is an impressive 120% increase over fou…

May 27, 2005

Economics
Housing bubbles, the great plains and the coast

Not all parts of America are enjoying a housing bubble. $65,000 will buy a brick home with three bedrooms and a two car garage in Stafford Kansas, though maybe not ten acres of prairie as well. Low…

June 30, 2005

Capital Flows
CNOOC (once again)

The CNOOC bid presumably is motivated by two things. One, Beijing has plenty of cash, and already holds more Treasuries than it wants, so it wants to diversify its portfolio. As I argued earlier, C…

August 26, 2005

United States
Dollar crashes, interest rates fall?

Alan Greenspan's legacy may hinge on whether that headline is written, or whether the headline reads: "Dollar crashes, interest rates surge." From Reuters:Although a dollar crash is unlikely anyt…

November 28, 2005

China
China still pegs to the dollar …

And it intervenes in a big way in both the spot and the forward market.  But it doesn't manipulate its currency.  At least not technically.   The US Treasury - in a widely telegraphed move - deci…

February 8, 2006

Monetary Policy
The central bank (and oil fund) bid

I am constantly amazed by the concern well paid Wall Street economists display for poor Chinese peasants.    China, you see, cannot revalue the RMB without devastating rural China.  A revalued RMB wo…

April 18, 2006

China
Not working — China’s attempts to rebalance its economy

China's leaders talk of rebalancing the basis for Chinese growth, shifting from exports and investment to consumption.   That makes a lot of sense to me.  China's economy is every bit as unba…

March 27, 2006

United States
Good thing Michael Mandel read my 2004 paper, not my 2005 paper -

With the 2004 paper on US external sustainability, there is at least some possibility that Nouriel's and my dire forecasts will prove to be right.   The core argument of that paper is that the co…

February 21, 2006

Emerging Markets
Frederick Kempe of the Wall Street Journal gets an awful lot of things wrong

As, I suspect, does Joseph Quinlan of the Bank of America- the source of much of Kempe's analysis.   Kempe's core argument: consumers in emerging markets are driving global demand.   Hi…

January 28, 2006

China
Another great irony of history: The Chinese Communist party is a very profitable real estate company

Max Sawicky noted that key source of recent job creation in the capitalist United States has been the US government, which itself is financed, in no small part by the People's Bank of China.  The…