209 Results for:

December 10, 2004

Emerging Markets
Why Argentina should do its bond exchange, ASAP

Yields on Latin American bonds have not been this low for a long time. It is hard to believe that Brazil’s 20 year dollar bond trades at a yield of only 8%, and most long-term Brazilian bonds are in …

November 6, 2004

Will Japan be able to stay on the sidelines for long?

Some facts: 1) In 2003, Japan increased its reserves by $200 billion, emerging Asia by $245 billion. The world as whole increased its reserves by $500 billion, so Asia accounted for most of the worl…

December 18, 2004

2004 and 2005 current account deficits

Now that we have three of the four data points for 2004, it is worth trying to make a (well) informed guess about the end of the year current account deficit -- and to peer into 2005. This post of c…

January 26, 2005

Financial Markets
China reads the Economist. Is the Renminbi undervalued?

While China’s delegation to Davos seems a bit less than enamored with the dollar, the People’s Bank of China seems have read last week’s Economist, and concluded that there is no need to change the …

December 19, 2004

The Teutonic Monetary Policy Tradition

My recent travels took me to old Europe -- and reminded me that the rest of the world is, in many ways, still unprepared for changes set to hit the world economy -- a world economy where the US trade…

January 2, 2005

United States
Bretton Woods Two Lives

The Fed has started to tighten, Greenspan said anyone who has not hedged their interest rate risk desires to lose money. Yet higher short-term rates have not led to higher long-term rates. In the j…

January 8, 2005

Has the broad dollar fallen enough

A standard rule of thumb, mentioned by Paul Blustein in his excellent look at the impact of a falling dollar on US trade last week, is that a 10% fall in the broad dollar leads to a $100 billion fall…

January 10, 2005

United States
Apparently, like budget deficits, trade deficits do not matter anymore

Kevin Drum brought the latest National Review "trade deficits do not matter" article to my attention today. I learned a few things, namely that Steven Roach is part of a media misinformation campaig…

February 8, 2005

Chairman Greenspan: Do Not Worry, Be Happy

The Chairman gave policy makers a green light not to worry about the US current account deficit: the dollar’s existing fall will lead the deficit to turn around. The Chairman’s remarks also seem to …

December 16, 2004

Will Americans lose confidence in the dollar before foreign central banks …

There are two groups of investors that are massively overweight US assets: the world’s central banks, who still hold most of their reserves in dollars, and US domestic savers. US residents keep the …