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June 29, 2007

Monetary Policy
Where is China? The puzzling q1 COFER data on global reserve growth

China reported a $135.7b increase in its reserves in q1.    China doesn’t report the currency composition of its reserves to the IMF.  Its reserve total consequently usually appears in the “unalloc…

china_v_cofer

December 11, 2007

Emerging Markets
The new financial superpowers (part 2)

Sovereign wealth funds are hot.   A senior JP Morgan Chase banker, quoted in Time: "SWFs ... are the new 'it' girl of global finance. Everyone wants a piece of them."  Almost every investment bank …

December 17, 2007

United States
A strong October TIC data release, but the BEA’s data only deepens the mystery of how the US financed its current account deficit in the third quarter

NOTE: THIS POST WAS EXTENSIVELY REVISED ABOUT 5 HOURS AFTER IT WAS INITIALLY POSTED.  I DIDN’T HAVE TIME TO DO A FULL ANALYSIS IN THE MORNING.     The big story of the October TIC data is, obviously…

February 18, 2008

Monetary Policy
SAFE, SWF?

A number of oil exporters have, through their sovereign funds, effectively invested some of the fiscal surplus from high oil prices in troubled US and European banks. The Abu Dhabi Investment Authori…

March 11, 2008

China
China always poses data puzzles in February

Chinese inflation soared to 8.7% -- above expectations. An ominous sign, particularly given how fast reserves are growing and the potential difficulties sterilizing all the "hot money" flowing into…