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December 2, 2016

Financial Markets
Global Economics Monthly: December 2016

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn writes that financial markets rallied following the U.S. election, on hopes that President-Elect Donald J. Trump’s fiscal stimulus and deregulation initiatives would spur corporate profits and growth. Perhaps so, but a strong case could be made for the opposite: that Trump’s economic agenda will prove disruptive to trade and growth, face growing headwinds in Congress, and exert a contractionary impact on the U.S. economy.

November 22, 2016

Cybersecurity
Creating a Federally Sponsored Cyber Insurance Program

The U.S. federal government has long debated using insurance as a tool to create incentives for better cybersecurity in the private sector, and has tried to prod the insurance industry to offer cyber…

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November 2, 2016

Economics
Global Economics Monthly: November 2016

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that the Group of Twenty (G20) policymakers agree on the importance of stronger and more inclusive growth to address growing populism, but disagree on who—central banks, treasuries, or legislatures—should take the lead. This standoff all but guarantees that the global recovery will continue to disappoint.

September 26, 2016

Trade
A Winning Trade Policy for the United States

Overview The once-bipartisan consensus favoring agreements that reduce barriers to trade and investment has broken down, largely because of a decades-long failure of policy to facilitate the adjus…

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September 12, 2016

G20 (Group of Twenty)
Global Economics Monthly: September 2016

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that at the Group of Twenty (G20) Summit in Hangzhou, China, leaders called for governments to do more to support growth, but offered little in the way of new measures. Quietly, and away from the G20 spotlight, fiscal policy is becoming more expansionary, but current policies are unlikely to provide a meaningful boost to growth or soothe rising populist pressures.

August 22, 2016

Brexit
Global Economics Monthly: August 2016

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that markets have absorbed the initial economic shock from Brexit, but navigating the new landscape will remain a challenge. Two months after the vote, the politics of Brexit is producing a lengthy and uncertain renegotiation of Britain’s place in Europe and the world. Such extended uncertainty is likely to produce a long-lasting drag on both UK and European economies, which could ultimately threaten the viability of the European Union (EU).

July 18, 2016

Russia
Global Economics Monthly: July 2016

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that summer has seemingly brought a new optimism about the Russian economy. Russia’s economic downturn is coming to an end, and markets have outperformed amidst global turbulence. But the coming recovery is likely to be tepid, constrained by deficits and poor structural policies, and sanctions will continue to bite. Brexit-related concerns are also likely to weigh on oil prices and demand. All this suggests that Russia’s economy will have a limited capacity to respond to future shocks.

May 4, 2016

Venezuela
Global Economics Monthly: May 2016

Bottom Line: The crisis in Venezuela continues to escalate, with no recovery or relief in sight. A messy and chaotic default looms, and the rescue will likely involve a tough adjustment program, larg…

April 13, 2016

G20 (Group of Twenty)
Global Economics Monthly: April 2016

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that the case for strong and effective Group of Twenty (G20) leadership is as compelling as ever. But if the G20 is to be as effective in noncrisis times as it was in 2008–2009, it needs stronger Chinese leadership, working informally yet closely with the United States—a Group of Two (G2) within the G20. Debt policy is one area where China and the United States should cooperate this year.

March 1, 2016

Economics
Global Economics Monthly: March 2016

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) deserves credit for effectively responding to the global and European financial crises. However, the institution will face different and potentially more difficult challenges in the next five years as it struggles to come to terms with a changing international power order and lending rules that are not well suited to address future crises.