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    Iran Isn’t the Only Country With Morality Police
    Multiple countries have special police that enforce Islamic moral codes. Here’s how Iran’s morality police compare to other forces with the same goals.
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    Religion and Foreign Policy Webinar: The Protests in Iran
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    Fatemeh Haghighatjoo, CEO of the Nonviolent Initiative for Democracy, and Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar, associate professor at Texas A&M University’s Bush School of Government and Public Service, discuss women’s role in the Iran protests, the political and religious aspects of the movement, and what it means for the future of political Islam and Iranian women. Ray Takeyh, CFR’s Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow for Middle East studies, moderates. Learn more about CFR's Religion and Foreign Policy Program. FASKIANOS: Thank you. Welcome to the Council on Foreign Relations Religion and Foreign Policy Webinar Series. This series convenes religion and faith-based leaders in cross-denominational dialogue on the intersection between religion and international relations. I’m Irina Faskianos, vice president of the National Program and Outreach here at CFR. The webinar is on the record, and the audio, video, and transcript will be made available on CFR’s website, CFR.org, and on our iTunes podcast channel, Religion and Foreign Policy. As always, CFR takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. We’re delighted to have Ray Takeyh with us to moderate today’s discussion on the protests in Iran. Ray Takeyh is the Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow for Middle East studies at CFR. His areas of specialization are Iran, U.S. foreign policy, and the modern Middle East. He served as a senior advisor on Iran at the U.S. State Department, a fellow at Yale University, and has held other positions. He’s the author or coauthor of six books. Most recently, his last one was The Last Shah: America, Iran, and the Fall of the Pahlavi Dynasty. So, Ray, thank you very much for doing this. I’m going to turn it over to you to introduce our speakers and to moderate the conversation. TAKEYH: Yes. Thank you very much, everybody, for joining. Today we have two terrific speakers. Fatemeh Haghighatjoo, besides having a very timely last name, was a former parliamentarian in Iran, of the reformist variety. And today she’s the CEO of the Nonviolent Initiative for Democracy. Professor Tabaar is a professor at Texas A&M’s Bush School. His specializations are international security and Middle East politics. He’s the author of many timely and important books. I want to delve right into this discussion. And I want to begin with Parliamentarian Haghighatjoo. In forty-two years since its inception, the Islamic Republic has faced many different kind of protests from many different kind of factions. And the question that usually comes up is why are the current protest that began in September, with the death of Ms. Amini different—or, are they different in any way? Please. HAGHIGHATJOO: Hello, everyone. Thank you so much for inviting me. And thank you, Ray, for introducing me. I believe this movement is different from the previous movement for several reasons. First of all, as many may know, that Iran’s constitution is a discriminatory constitution. It discriminates against minority groups, including women, ethnic groups, and religious groups. So women have faced difficulty for the past forty years. And I think in, recent events before September 2022, the morality police violated women, brutally cracked down on them on enforcing the hijab law. And I think women reached the point, after the death of Mahsa Amini in the custody of the morality police, that enough is enough. So one important aspect has been women’s issues. Women have been the face of the movement. Also, the majority of people in the country are dissatisfied with how the regime runs everyday life, has been deteriorated. And I think everyone, to some extent, felt the anger. And different groups came together. There is very limited space on social, economic, political area in the country. So youths also joined with women and the movement [women] have created. I think another point is that the current movement, I believe, calls for fundamental change, which we can read as a call for a regime change. Even though different people joined the movement for different reasons, and some may want improvement of rights they would like, I think a great number of people really want fundamental change. TAKEYH: Thank you. Professor Tabaar, do you see this movement this same way? And do you believe that it can be durable? What is your perspective on the nature and the resilience of the movement? TABAAR: OK. Thank you. First of all, thank you, Irina and Ray, for the invitation and for the introduction. It’s great to be here on this panel with Fatemeh. I agree with Fatemeh that this is a very radical and widespread movement. It’s multiclass. It has affected different segments of the society, different strata in the society, different parts of the country we see being involved in this movement. Also, she’s absolutely right that this is probably one of the most radical movements that the Islamic Republic has been facing since 1979. There’s no call for reform, for gradual change. If anything, the protesters are calling for a completely different political system. So in that sense, it’s quite different. Another element that is very different in this movement, which is kind of related to this section of CFR, Religion and Foreign Policy, is the role of religion in this movement. There doesn’t seem to be any role for religion in this movement, which is quite astonishing for a country in which religion always played a major role. This time around, we don’t see any reference to religion, or very few, in the slogans, in the protesters’ platform. Not much. We don’t see clerics to be an influential part of this movement. So that’s another element. In fact, many social scientists in Iran have been writing commentaries and organizing events discussing this phenomenon, that why is it that suddenly the society has become so secular? And in some ways, some of them even argue that this could be potentially a far more significant development than even the ’79 revolution. So in that sense, this is quite remarkable, what you see. To what extent this is temporary or not, this role of religion, we have to see. But in that sense, it is different. But the question that is this going to lead to any major change? In the short term, if by change we mean political change, a change in the regime, probably not. We have already witnessed that the street have—that protests have kind of declined in the past couple of weeks. So in that sense, maybe not. But this is a long-term challenge. This is a long-term challenge between the state and the society. And even the strategies of the regime understand and they’re quite outspoken that this is going to be a long-term issue that they have to deal with. What they’re going to do to amend or to reduce this tension with the society, we’ll have to see. But, as I said, this is long-term. But let me just say one final point. And that is, the challenge that the protesters have faced is that they were not—or, they haven’t been able to bring the silent majority out. This hasn’t happened. This is the majority that sympathizes with the protesters but, for a variety of reasons, has decided not to come out yet. That’s why we haven’t seen the political changes that many people were expecting. TAKEYH: It is often suggested when you’re looking at this movement, and I’ll start with Ms. Haghighatjoo, it is suggested that it lacks organization, it lacks structure, and it lacks leadership. I’m going to ask you two questions. I think that’s true. Is that necessary for the movement at this stage? And second of all, is—does it need to have that at some point? And how will it have that in an internally repressive society? HAGHIGHATJOO: Yes. I think the main shortcoming of the movement is lack of leadership. Clear, united leadership. That doesn’t mean that at the street level there is no leadership. There are several reasons for that. The one main issue is the regime cracked down heavily. Over thirty thousand people got arrested. Many of them are those who have a potential [for] leadership. So if I look at any prison in Iran, we could see those who have leaders. So basically one scenario can be seen as leaders are forming from within prison. Just to name a few, I can say Narges Mohammedi can be one of those really who has a great potential vision, aspiration to be leader. Outside of the country, as we’ve seen—and it’s unique for the past seventy years—diaspora has played an important role in supporting the movement. But as we know, eighty thousand people attended the Berlin rally. Over fifty thousand people rallied in Toronto in October. But basically, still we don’t see a unified leadership because of different issues. One is historical fear, which goes back to 1979 leadership that Khomeini and its allies that have a long-lasting network throughout the country, could take over and purge these ideological differences, personality differences, and sometimes lack of a great leadership, and also the Iranian security forces manipulation. A combination of these several factors do not allow the opposition outside of Iran to come together and get united. Even if there have been some efforts, I don’t see it. So for now, because the regime for the past two decades has invested on security forces literally to crack down on political parties, organizations, civil society, journalists, press. So they have been trying to monitor everything, to question them, make them silent. So I think because of the level of repression, as you mentioned, it is difficult to form a leadership corps inside the country. So there are dots. People are working around the country. But they are not able to connect together because of that. So for now, maybe that is OK. Also, I don’t see it is necessary that in a daily or weekly pace people come to this different way of non-cooperative behaviors, actions, can also help the movement to grow in next couple of years. But I think if we want—if we want to see this movement to continue, it has to have leadership. And I think it is important, those who are in diaspora get together for leadership, but I feel the main leadership has to come from within Iran. I don’t want to separate between Iran—inside Iran, outside Iran. This is a way that the security forces in Iran like to do. But connection inside Iran is very important because they know daily things. Outside, they can create a strategy for this—a shared strategy that people inside Iran can understand as well. So, I believe at some point in the near future really we need to have a leadership for the movement to succeed. TAKEYH: Thank you. Professor Tabaar, I want to ask you about the performance of the regime for the past three months. Because there is a record of its performance. And it seems to me that the regime has—in some way, has lost its footing, has lost its narrative. It’s for the hijab, it’s for a loose hijab, it’s for restriction of hijab. Different people are saying different things. The prosecutor’s saying one thing, the head of judiciary another thing. If you can assess the performance of the regime, particularly focus on the security services? Because at this point, the Islamic Republic has only security services as a means of its prolongation in power. But this is also, in many ways, a conscript force. How do you assess the performance of the regime and the reliability of the security services as it continues to face domestic dissent? TABAAR: First of all, you’re absolutely right. They have lost the narrative. They know this. And that’s why they are trying to come up with a long-term solution to fix this problem. And that is, instead of relying on religion they’re using other forms of narratives—national security, nationalism, patriotism, and other things. And they keep saying this is not about veiling. This is not about hijab. And by losing narrative, it’s not just within the opposition. Losing narrative, as you said, even among their supporters. But the security forces, there have been some signs of tensions within the security forces, but overall we do not see any crack within the security forces, which is the key for any revolutionary movement to succeed. We don’t see that. And they’re not conscript. They are actually well-paid members of the regime. So, so far, yes, there are some supports that security elements have been tried and they have been criticized even by their own family members. But so far, they have managed to crack down on protesters. But again, this may not be a long-term issue. But here is what the regime is doing to reduce the tensions and the reliance on security forces in the short term. And that’s exactly what you were saying about how they are framing this—the tension about veiling and hijab. That’s why we’re seeing different signals from the regime because they want to reduce the state-society confrontation. They don’t want to have the morality police in the street having tensions, physical conflicts, with the citizens that sparked the very movement a few months ago. They want to reduce this. So in order to do that, they’re trying to redefine the veiling issue. And a few days ago—so, a few weeks ago, you were right—I think it was the Justice Department announced something—made a statement that basically they put an end to the morality police. It was not clear exactly what they meant. And I think it was ambiguous by design. And then a few days ago, the supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei said that the compulsory veiling is very much part of the core part of Islamic law, and the state has to enforce it. Yet, he actually lowered the bar by saying that those who are not properly veiled, partially veiled, or he used the word—he said a hijab is ayefa and they have—they’re veiled weakly, or whatever, however you can translate this. And they are—they should not be seen as subversive or anti-regime elements. Which is interesting because up until recently the morality police were after anyone who was not following this strict dress code. But now Khamenei is reducing that and saying—basically signaling that only those who are defiantly unveiled, those who come out and are not veiling, they should be targeted. Which is—again, it’s a new development. We’ve seen in the past couple of weeks, past few months, when the movement started, more and more women are coming out completely unveiled, which is very new. And so the regime is now trying to target these citizens, those who are completely unveiled coming out. But even in targeting its citizens, it’s trying not to do it directly through the morality police, but using different enforcement mechanisms, including forcing businesses not to provide service to women who are not veiled. So they are coming up with different ways. So going back to your main question, they are making some tactical adjustments. You can see this as concessions, but they’re not really concessions. The regime is very careful to make concessions without being seen as making concessions, because they don’t want to do what the shah did, that basically giving an inch that would embolden the population. And yet, they are trying to be flexible, come up with different ways to divide the protesters and reduce potential tensions in the short term, until they can figure out that war of narratives that you mentioned earlier. TAKEYH: I’d just one more quick question to Parliamentarian Haghighatjoo. The opposition may not need the clergy, but the regime does. And they keep going to Qom looking for it. Have the general Ghalibaf, the head of parliament, was there talking to Ayatollah Javadi Amoli, Jeralzi, Hamdani, and they’re not getting it. What they’re coming back is criticism. At the end of the day, their security forces, if they’re loyal to regime, they’re loyal to the religious ideology of the regime. Can the regime afford not to have a clerical community that is very critical? And one of the parliamentarians, I think it was Abbasi or whoever, says, look, you got to stop criticizing us and offer a solution. You mentioned the resilience of the movement. How is the resilience of the security forces if clerical approbation outside the national government is not offered? HAGHIGHATJOO: This is really important point, as you mentioned. Clergy— TAKEYH: All my points are important. This is a particular important one. HAGHIGHATJOO: Yes. (Laughter.) Absolutely. I mean, clergy has been a key element and key supporter of the regime, basically the foundation of the regime. And Khamenei himself, other people around him, have tried directly, indirectly, to engage them, to bring them to the core of supporting the regime. But they did not lead the support to them. And this is very important. Unfortunately, for several reasons. First of all, they don’t listen to people. For instance, even Ayatollah Sistani, who is a great marja al-taqlid for Shia community. So I felt indirectly that he has been trying to provide some advice, but he says, unfortunately, nobody listens. Or other people, other clergy, so they have been requesting reform. Not only clergy. Even within the system, within the security forces, [there is a] call for the reform. But unfortunately, the supreme leader, as a key decision maker, doesn’t basically accept those—doesn’t accept calls for reform. Which is this call for reform is—ranges from simple reform to wider reform. And I think that is—clergy now [are now in a] very hard position. In one point clergy have been targeted by the movement. And young—especially young people see them as an ally of the regime itself. So they are targeted by the activists, protesters. On the other hand, they have been targeted by the security forces, by the leaders. So they originally have been placed in a very hard position. So maybe this is one reason also they are absolutely silent. They try to be—not support the regime, not support the—basically the protesters, because of the different position they have. I think gradually the regime try to move from the clergy to the security forces. For instance, if we see the combination of the government—and when I say government, as a general, the parliament, the executive office, even the judiciary—we see more and more military people compromise those institution. So they also—the regime will rely less. But definitely the regime needs clergy. And this is a hard position for the regime and for the clergy themselves as well. TAKEYH: Thank you. I’ll open it up for questions. If you have questions, Irina can direct you to how to go ahead and pose questions to our two speakers. OPERATOR: Thank you, Dr. Takeyh. (Gives queuing instructions.) We will take our first question from Azza Karam from Religions for Peace International. KARAM: Thank you very much, indeed, to the distinguished speakers—Dr. Tabaar, Dr. Haghighatjoo, and Dr. Takeyh. A very, very interesting and stimulating presentation. I request, if I may, for two specific clarifications. The first is, I heard a very clear point made by Dr. Mohammad Tabaar that religion has no role to play in this space and is not what has been motivating. At the same time, I thought that the whole point was about the veil, and imperative behind it, and therefore that created that whole setup. And then I heard very compelling conversations about the role of the clergy. So what is it? Is there no relationship? Is there some relationship? If there is, what is it? And sometimes being against the religion current in and of itself is a critical aspect of the religion engagement, or lack thereof. But the other question that I had is really more nuanced if you could please, Dr. Fatemeh, highlight the point about the potential for leadership, alternative leadership, not only within the country. Because one of the questions I heard some of our Iranian colleagues and friends say as well, they’re arguing for regime change. They want the downfall of the regime. But who would it be then? If this regime falls, well, who’s going to take—what would it be? So that is a question I’m curious about your own read on. But the other is, if we lack potential leaders from within or without, or ones who are obviously within and aligned with those diaspora, is that not a situation very similar to other contexts? I think of my own context in Egypt, with the conflict, and therefore how easy it was for the military to step in because of this so-called gap in leadership. Would anything like that—what would that actually imply for what’s going to happen now? Thank you. TAKEYH: What does the day after look like? Dr. Haghighatjoo. HAGHIGHATJOO: Yes. Thank you so much. First on veiling, unfortunately, unlike many other Muslim-majority countries, this regime tied hijab to its own existence, which is very bad idea in general. And even though other people, even within religious community, clergy community, wanted to ease—there is tension on that really. Some call that as an important point. Some, they say it should not enforce hijab. So there is tension on being needed to have hijab or not. But the final vote is for Khamenei. So Khamenei clearly stated hijab is mandatory and has to be enforced. Yesterday, the judiciary issued a statement. Even though their statement was absolutely illegal, they pointed out to several articles—legal articles, which are highly studied and those are really fake, not relevant to hijab. But anyhow, this is not the first time they do illegal action, right? So because the leader said the hijab is mandatory and has to be enforced, judiciary jumped in, even though there is no—there is only one law about seventy lashes, up to twenty—up to two months imprisonment. But the judiciary has created something new, which is needed a parliamentary legislation. Without parliamentary legislation, they issued something which is, as I said, all of their action has been illegal for the past hundred days or so. So this is on religious side, which it’s not easy to really analyze that section. On the leadership, yes, I think one reason that maybe not the majority of people joined to this current movement is fear of tomorrow, what tomorrow would look like, who is going to take over. Still the generation, this generation, has a memory of Pahlavi’s dynasty, that they thought, yes, by the revolution they are going to have freedom. And then from secular dictatorship country become a theocracy, another way even the worst form of dictatorship. But not now, knowing that what is going to happen in the future, I think this fear, plus the fear of crackdown on the people, prevent everybody to join. So I see—I believe Iranians are so talented. I believe Iranians have a leadership capacity inside the country and outside of the country. But still, everybody has its own narrative, its own ideology. Some people want return of dynasty. Some others want republicanism. But the reason is, basically, I think we have experience of religious dictatorial system and authoritarian regime. And this will be one great lesson that allows the next state to become a secular estate. I think this is the minimum agreement. Everybody has failed, even those who are inside the country. There is now a great call for not having supreme leadership out of the constitution or next regime. But I think there have been efforts to create that leadership and create a clear future for post-transition Iran, which I believe and I’m hopeful that that will be shaped. But it may take at least a year to reach to that point that we have a clear leadership and united leadership. TAKEYH: Professor Tabaar, do you want to take a crack at what comes next, and what does the day after look like? TABAAR: Sure, but let me quickly respond to the first question on the issue of religion, that how can this not be about religion? This is about religion, but what I was trying to say is that for the protesters, religion is not being used to mobilize the masses, as it was the practice for a long time in Iran, going back to the tobacco movement in the nineteenth century, and later the constitutional movement, and the Iranian revolution in ’79. All until recently, every time there was a movement, you saw either the clerics played a leading role or religion in general was very much part of the language and discourse of the protesters. But this time around, what we see is that this generation, this new generation of the protesters who came out in the past few months—this doesn’t not necessarily reflect the view of the silent majority that I said. But for those who came out, based on their slogans, what we saw was that they did not formulate their political actions and demands in religious terms. And again, this is a remarkable shift, at least according to many observers inside Iran. And you look at even the reform movement that Fatemeh was part of, you look at the Green Movement in 2009, religion and religious discourse was very much part of that. Trying to use this to mobilize the masses and also to undermine the cohesion of religion, for the very reason that Ray said a few minutes ago, that you need that in order to undermine the cohesion of the security forces. So, and again, there was this belief that only a diamond can cut a diamond. You need to have this kind of a discourse. But for this generation of protesters, they seem to have just gone way beyond this. They don’t even bother to engage with this, not to mention the anti-clericalism that we see rising. A lot of clerics have been attacked. And that is why many pro-regime clerics this time decided to remain silent, because they don’t want to increase the resentment and the anti-clericalism that they see in the society. So that’s what I meant. I didn’t mean this is not about religion. It is about religion. But it is no longer being used, at least for the time being, by the protesters, the way it was in the past. And then in terms of what is after. So, very quickly, this is the issue, that no one has been able to articulate a viable alternative so far. And that is why a lot of people—that is partly why a lot of people did not come out to join the protesters. There is a diaspora movement. As Fatemeh said, it was widely—it was divided for a long time. But they seem to have shown some form of unity in the past few months and weeks, some of them, some activists, and journalists, and athletes, and artists have gotten together, forming a coalition. But the question is, if we don’t know if they can translate that into a bigger political organization that is seen as legitimate inside Iran, that is credible, that can create—basically call for political action inside Iran. So we haven’t seen this. If that happens, then yes. So far, it seems that this coalition has been more influential outside Iran, trying to change policies of European and Canadian and American governments, than affecting inside Iran, because it just started. So we’ll see. We have yet to see to what extent it will be successful. But again, the lack of an alternative, a viable alternative, is what keeps a lot of people at home. TAKEYH: Thank you. Next question, please. OPERATOR: Our next question is a written submission from Chloe Breyer from The Interfaith Center of New York. Who asks: If you could speak about the connection between or the influence on Afghanistan and Iran right now. TAKEYH: Professor Tabaar, you want to start with that? TABAAR: I’m not an Afghanistan expert but, quickly, yes. So it is—I think is one of the most important and understudied developments as far as it’s connected to Iran. The rise of the Taliban, a group that went almost into war with Iran in 1998, coming back to power now is going to be an important development in the long term. So based on the commentaries we saw when the Taliban came to power two years ago coming out of Iran, it seemed Iran had a completely—at least, the conservative establishment had a very different view of the Taliban this time around. They did not see them as the enemy that the group was twenty years earlier. This time they saw the Taliban as a potentially—as a potential anti-American ally. So they kept emphasizing that the Taliban was an anti-American group. They defeated the Americans. And therefore, they could be a potential partner. Which is very interesting, because ideologically and ethnically the Taliban could not have been farther from Iran. At the time when Iran could have—and there was a cause, especially from the more moderate elements within the regime—that Iran could try to back the Persian-speaking ethnic groups, or the Hazaras, the Shia Hazaras. The regime decided not to, because they didn’t want to antagonize the Taliban and, more importantly, because it did see the Taliban as a potential partner. At some point, I even heard some regime strategy saying the Taliban could be a potential member of the axis of resistance. That’s how they see the Taliban. But so far, it hasn’t materialized. And there have been some tensions between Iran and the Taliban because of what is happening—border issues, and the Taliban crack down on their own population, and other things. But it is an important development. And it can go both ways. Taliban could be a very serious threat to Iran in the long term. It’s a potent force. But at the same time, as I said, Iran—the current regime, the current ruling faction, is trying to cultivate a partnership based on anti-Americanism. So we’ll see if that will materialize. TAKEYH: Thank you. I’ll go to the next question. OPERATOR: Our next question comes from Charles Randall Paul from the Foundation for Religious Diplomacy. PAUL: Hello. Wonderful conversation. I have two quick questions. One, has there in the last few years ever been a public opinion poll that could be considered legitimate for the citizens of Iran? And, number two, has anyone worked on a coalition of, shall we say, traditional, very strongly religious believers in Iran, and what we might call the liberal agnostic group, who merely want religious freedom? If you sense an American tilt on that question, you’ll see that the original Bill of Rights came about mainly because of a compromise between the adamant Baptists, who wanted to pitch their religion strongly in America and wanted to be allowed to do that, and the agnostics who did not want religion to control the government. And so they came up with the great compromise of “you can practice whatever you want, but you can’t be involved in government.” I’m wondering if there’s any thought at all going on in Iran of saying yes to religion with great enthusiasm, but also yes to freedom to not be religious. TAKEYH: Let me piggyback on that, Dr. Haghighatjoo. It is also said that the regime enjoys 20 percent of support among the population. I have no idea where that figure comes from. How would you—and I realize it’s dynamic. It changes. How would you assess the core supporters of the regime? I mean, I see opinion—Etana does opinion polls all the time. I have no idea if they’re reliable. But how do you assess what—if at all possible—what level of support the regime continues to enjoy? And from which segment of the population? HAGHIGHATJOO: Thank you. So on public opinion, yes, there have been some reliable public opinion [polls] many have done inside Iran and also outside Iran. General understanding from that public opinion showed a trend that Iranians have become less and less religious. And we’ve seen footage of videos. We hear stories that compare that polling. And some of these polls have been done by the regime itself. And regarding yes to religion and yes to freedom of religion, I think we see that very interestingly. Mr. Abdul Hamid, leader of Sunni in Sistan and Baluchistan, has played a great role in the past hundred days. Which is this very unique role. I haven’t seen any other religious leader play the role he has played. And every week they come out after Friday prayer. In his speech many times he supported Iran is for all citizens, regardless of if they are religious or not. And even he mentioned name of Baha’is, that Baha’i has a right to practice, and that right has to be preserved. Which, in some religious communities, Baha’is don’t have the right. And even if we look at today the Iranian constitution, Shia has absolute right. And to some extent, Abrahamic religion has some right. But some religions, such as Baha’ism, has no right at all. Even if they confess they are Baha’i, they will be barred from going to school, as simple as that. Or have a profession, or so on or so forth. It’s a very basic thing. They are denied—they seek a right. I think in general in society, we see people are more tolerant toward different type of religious spectrum. On core supporters of the regime, I think analyzing elections in the past twenty years shows almost what is the core element of the regime. Which is if we analyze election results, which we have done before a couple of times, that number comes to 10 to 15 percent. But this 10 to 15 percent, some are traditional religious people. They feel support of the regime is part of their religious duty, basically. They buy what—they buy regime’s narrative on use of religion. Some supporters of the regime who have benefitted financially, also I think that is another part. And as we see one reason that security forces especially—(inaudible)—have been a great core for the regime is because of these financial and political gain that they have gained throughout these twenty-plus years. This is the core, from my point of view. TAKEYH: Professor Tabaar, do you agree that it’s 10 to15 percent? And is it situated in a socioeconomic class, or it’s more diffused, as Dr. Haghighatjoo suggested? TABAAR: So there have been some public polls, and some government-sponsored polls. And there were some reports that, based on some government-sponsored news agencies such as Fars, that were classified but they were kind of hacked. A few weeks ago they came out. And they showed that—we see different figures, but something about 15 percent, the regime has the core supporters. Again, it kind of fluctuates. Sometimes it’s less. Sometimes it’s more based on what kind of threats they feel, religious or political. But I don’t think this has necessarily any specific, let’s say, social base. I think it’s widespread, fragmented. Different parts of the society, different parts of the country. But I do think a significant portion of it is among the core, basically, those who get the financial support from the regime—the families of the Revolutionary Guards, the security apparatus, and those who have specific, vested interests. So this is more about the just political and economic interests that they have connected directly to the regime. I don’t think it’s necessarily ideological, unless they fear that the day after could be an anti-regime government. At that point, yes, we do see, as Fatemeh said, some traditional religious segments of the people, they show some reluctant support for the regime because they fear an alternative. But relatedly, let me just say that this was a—this was—the second question was really, really important. And that is, if we see the alliance between more religious people and the liberal/agnostic people. We do see the rise in resentment among many religious people who are kind of apolitical. And they see that they go out to the streets and they see that a lot of people hate them, because they see them as being part of the regime. They’re not part of the regime, but they’re being part of the regime. So there’s a lot of anecdotal evidence that shows more and more religious people are actually advocating for a secular government, precisely because they want to be left alone. They don’t want to be seen as part of the regime when they are not. And also, they are tired of the state control of their religiosity. It’s widely said that when the revolution happened one of the famous figures, clerics, at the beginning—right after the revolution said: The first casualty of this—in this revolution is Islam itself. And this is true, because a lot of clerics, a lot of religious institutions, they lost their independence. Because suddenly you have an Islamic government that wants to control the official narrative. So, I mean, in that sense, we see a rise. But recent—one of the figures who came out during this movement a few months ago was Fatemeh Sepehri, a religious figure. And she was very critical of Ayatollah Khamenei. And she’s now in prison. She’s fully covered with shutters. So there are a lot of religious people who are part of this movement, precisely because they want to be left alone in their religiosity. So they’re advocating for a secular government and for freedom, so. TAKEYH: Thank you. I’ll take the next question, as we’re wrapping up. So, next question, please. OPERATOR: Our next question is an anonymous submission. They ask: There is a critique in some quarters that the protests inside Iran have lacked the necessary intellectual and ideological rigor to persuade and invite the more learned layers of Iranian society to itself. There has been violence, vulgar language, lack of informed intellectual figures. Reliance has been on celebrities, stars, sportsmen, et cetera. Outside Iran, the discourse has similarly been divisive and pretty violent, plagued with personal attacks, defamations, et cetera. What is the way out of this? TAKEYH: Thank you. Please, Dr. Haghighatjoo, if you— HAGHIGHATJOO: Yes. I think there was also another question that what we can do—what NGO outside of Iran can do to support. I think to answer these questions together is, advocating for nonviolent action, strategy, and tactic. Exactly once people advocate for violence, that is basically super problematic. First of all, that creates fear of future, like some of these who have been engaged even in cracking down on the people. They may continue to crack down because they think what will happen to them after the regime. So they would try to fight to the last person. This one point. The second point also encouraging violence, as Erica Chenoweth research shows, that 55 percent of nonviolent—first of all, 55 percent of movement in general got succeed to change a regime. And nonviolent movement succeeded twice than violent. So encouraging peaceful transition to democracy is very important. And I think opposition outside of the country has to advocate for peaceful transition. Absolutely I disagree with those who advocate for eye for eye understanding and usage of violence. At the end of the day, the Iranian government has the upper hand on use of violence. And basically they try to find a way and excuses to crack down more on people. And that really is in favor of the regime itself. And it’s not provided any support for the protesters. TAKEYH: As we wrap up, let me ask Professor Tabaar and also Dr. Haghighatjoo, tell me how this ends? HAGHIGHATJOO: I could not understand the question. TAKEYH: I’ll start with Professor Tabaar. Tell me how this ends? TABAAR: Let me just start by saying that the last point that was raised is very critical, very unfortunate. And that is how this movement—part of this movement gradually became vulgar and has no intellectual—I would even go further, and say part of it is very anti-intellectual. And many of—some of the leaders outside or some of those activists inside, they even kind of brag that this is an anti-academic, anti-intellectual movement or approach that they have adopted. And the kind of language, as I said— TAKEYH: By the way, there was plenty of vulgarity in the 1979 revolution. TABAAR: But not—maybe it’s because of the social media, I don’t know. But this level— TAKEYH: I saw a lot of things about Pahlavi and others during the 1979 revolution. But go ahead. TABAAR: But I don’t know if people attacked each other the way they are doing now. I mean, as soon as somebody’s coming out and saying something that the other side sees as a little bit too moderate, or people are being accused of being different things. So this is—this is pretty vicious. And actually, I think that this has partly affected those silent majority, again, not to come out. And again, even in the media, people are just broadcasting this, which is surprising. So what is the way out? So—(laughs)— TAKEYH: No, how does this end? TABAAR: How does it— TAKEYH: What happens? TABAAR: From who’s perspective? I’m not super optimistic, as this is becoming more violent, I think the regime has an upper hand in the short term. But in the long term— TAKEYH: So in your perspective, it ends with the regime restoring its authority in some respects? TABAAR: In the short term. But, no, in the long term, no. There is no easy out for the regime this time around. So how’s this going to end? Let me just very quickly say, my fear is this could—there could be a diversionary war in the region that is caused by either the regime or neighboring countries miscalculating, like 1980 Saddam Hussein, and that could help the regime to restore order. That is my fear. TAKEYH: Dr. Haghighatjoo, very quickly, how does this end? HAGHIGHATJOO: Well, I think the current situation will continue unless the opposition is able to form a core leadership to convert it to post transition. I don’t see any chance for reform from within the system because Khamenei and—Khamenei blocked it. So I think this cat and mouse fight will continue for a while. This is a long-term trouble. I think at least will take two years to go. TAKEYH: Just a brief follow-up, Ms. Haghighatjoo. Do you see a role for your former reformist colleagues—Abdul Nouri, Tajzadeh—do you see a role for them in this movement and in the future of Iran? HAGHIGHATJOO: (Laughs.) I don’t know for future of Iran. As you know, that right now the regime itself and the opposition try to tack to the middle, which is the reformist. And that places them in a hard situation. For instance, as you say, Abdul Nouri a couple of weeks ago issued a letter criticizing the leader. And he was called to the security forces for interrogation, even though he has defended. I think—I doubt Khamenei will basically compromise. If Khamenei would compromise, I would see a role for the reformists. But I think as many activists, politicians, journalists, including former Speaker of the Parliament Mehdi Karroubi stated, maybe the best opening for change occurs in the days and months after Khamenei dies. TAKEYH: Thank you. I’ll turn it over to Irina to wrap us up. FASKIANOS: Thank you all very much for doing this. We really appreciate it. It was an excellent conversation. And I’m sorry we couldn’t get to all of your questions. We will just have to reconvene. Just a reminder, you can follow Ray Takeyh at @raytakeyh, and also on the CFR.org website. We also encourage you to follow CFR’s Religion and Foreign Policy program on Twitter @CFR_religion. And do email us at [email protected] with any suggestions or questions for future webinars. And just a quick announcement, we will have our next webinar, our Social Justice Webinar, on U.S. immigration and repatriation on Thursday, January 26, at 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time (EST). So keep a look out for that invitation. Thank you all, again, for being with us and thank you to our distinguished speakers. HAGHIGHATJOO: Thank you, Ray. Thank you, everyone, for inviting me. TAKEYH: Thank you. FASKIANOS: It was a pleasure.
  • Health
    Social Justice Webinar: Healthcare Equity and Accessibility Around the World
    Play
    William Hsiao, K.T. Li professor of economics emeritus in the department of health policy and management and department of global health and population at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, and  Ellen L. Idler, director of the Religion and Public Health Collaborative and Samuel Candler Dobbs professor of sociology at Emory University, discuss the equity and accessibility of the U.S. healthcare system and other healthcare systems around the world, and the intersection of religion and global health. Holly G. Atkinson, affiliate medical clinical professor at the CUNY School of Medicine, moderates. Learn more about CFR's Religion and Foreign Policy Program. FASKIANOS: Welcome to the Council on Foreign Relations Social Justice Webinar Series. I’m Irina Faskianos, vice president of the National Program and Outreach here at CFR. Today’s webinar series explores social justice issues and how they shape policy at home and abroad through discourse with members of the faith community. This webinar is on the record, and the audio, video, and transcript will be available on CFR’s website, CFR.org, and on the iTunes podcast channel, Religion and Foreign Policy. As always, CFR takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. We are delighted to have Holly Atkinson with us to moderate the discussion on “Healthcare Equity and Accessibility Around the World.” I will just give you highlights from Dr. Atkinson’s bio. She is an affiliate clinical professor at the CUNY School of Medicine. Previously, she was director of the human rights program at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. Dr. Atkinson is currently an associate editor of the Annals of Global Health, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. We’ve dropped a link to her bio and the speakers’ bios in the chat, so you can look there. But I’m going to turn it over now to Dr. Atkinson to introduce our distinguished panelists, and then start the conversation. So, Holly, over to you. ATKINSON: Thank you, Irina. And good afternoon, everyone. I’m really delighted to be moderating this very distinguished panel. Let me introduce you to them. William Hsiao is K.T. Li professor of economics emeritus in the department of health policy and management and the department of global health and population at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. He received his PhD in economics from Harvard University. Dr. Hsiao is a leading global expert in universal health insurance, which he has studied for more than forty years. He has been actively engaged in designing health system reforms and universal health insurance programs for many countries around the world. Dr. Hsiao developed the “control knobs” framework for diagnosing the causes for the successes or failures of national health systems, and he has shaped how we conceptualize national health systems. He’s published several papers and books and served on editorial boards of professional journals. Dr. Hsiao served as an advisor to three U.S. presidents, the U.S. Congress, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the World Health Organization, and International Labor Organization. Ellen Idler is the director of the Religion and Public Health Collaborative and Samuel Candler Dobbs professor of sociology at Emory University. Previously, she taught at Rutgers University. Dr. Idler received her PhD and MPhil from Yale University, her B.A. from the College of Wooster, and attended Union Theological Seminary on a Rockefeller Brothers Fellowship. At Emory, she holds appointments at the Rollins School of Public Health, the Center for Ethics, and the Graduate Division of Religion. She is a fellow of the Gerontological Society of America. Dr. Idler studies the intersection of religion with public health at the individual, population, and organizational levels. She is the editor of the Oxford University Press book, Religion as a Social Determinant of Public Health, and author of numerous studies on religion’s role in health. She is also an associate editor for PLOS One. Welcome to you both. Bill, let’s get started with you. We have a gathering of individuals today, many of whom are from the faith-based organizations and institutions. And I’d like for you to describe what the control knobs approach is to formulating health policy. And of course, particularly in the context of what we’re talking about today, which is equity and accessibility to health care. HSIAO: Control knobs is a new analytical approach for health policymakers and analysts, as well as for the public, to understand health policy. Let me give a brief history. Traditionally when we look at health care, we look at the inputs—how many doctors, nurses we have, and how many hospital beds, and community centers we have. That’s the input. This new control knobs framework is saying, no, let’s look at the output, the outcomes, that’s what we care about. And such as equity in health outcomes, equity in reducing the poverty caused by health expenses. And to look at how these outcomes are produced, we identified major so-called “control knobs” that determines the outcomes. That’s including financing how you organize health care—for example, do you rely on the market, or do you rely on the government—and the payment system, how do we incentivize the providers, and the regulation. And here, my last point, to determine the outcomes there you want to look at the equity of the health outcomes and the reduction of impoverishment due to health expenses. ATKINSON: Well, let me stop you right there, Bill, for a moment. And can you give us a working definition of what you mean by equity? And how do measure that? It’s obviously an ideal that we have as an outcome, but how do you actually measure equity across a national health plan? HSIAO: Well, not being a philosopher, like Ellen, because I work more on the practice side, that equity is a principle made very well known by John Rawls, the theory of justice. That under a veil of ignorance, we want to give more resources and health services to the most disadvantaged people. It can be the poor people, the handicapped, the ill people. But these people could be disadvantaged for genetic reasons, social reasons, and environmental reasons. So it’s very hard to classify them, to say really what is due to their circumstance versus their free will, let’s say, to control their weight. Therefore, in the health policy world, we actually change that word “equity” in practice to “equality.” We want to give everyone equality regardless of income, gender, race, region, education, and so forth, to see whether they have equal outcome in health—like, their health status, as well as how many of them get impoverished because of health expenditures. So with that, we can actually measure it, because you can measure the health status of people regardless their circumstances. So in practice, we actually practice equity translated into equality. And Ellen may disagree with that. ATKINSON: Well, you’ve really raised the issue of what we call the social determinants of health. And Ellen, of course, in the introduction, I mentioned this marvelous book that you’ve edited, which is Religion as a Social Determinant of Public Health. Before you talk about religion as an SDH, as we call them, tell us what a social determinant of health is. IDLER: Sure. Thank you. I’d be happy to. (Laughs.) It is really the paradigm for public health and epidemiological research these days that you think about the most upstream factors that determine the health status of individuals. It’s not the close-in kind of health care or health behaviors that are the most important. It is those social determinants of health that have everything to do with income, and wealth, and education. And the World Health Organization had a commission on the social determinants of health in 2007. The concept was around for a while there, but it really got a very official designation with that WHO commission that was led by Michael Marmot. And the definition from their report is social determinants of health are the circumstances in which people are born, grow up, live, work, and age. And I love that definition because it captures the life course aspect of health. But it does begin at birth. I think about these social determinants’ circumstances of birth and I always think about the parable of the sower in the Gospel of Matthew. The sower sows the seeds. And some of the seeds are scattered onto rocks. And some of them are scattered to very dry ground and they can’t grow. But other seeds fall on fertile ground, and they have sunshine, and they have enough rain to grow and thrive. And the point about that parable and the point about the definition here is that people don’t choose the circumstances of their birth. We are born, some of us, into very advantaged situations, and others of us into very disadvantaged ones. And we didn’t choose those. We were given them. And for some of those people, religion is present in the social world that they’re born into, and for other people it isn’t. So our purpose in that book was to take a look at religion among the social circumstances of birth. I will mention that the World Health Organization did not include anything about religion in their report, which struck me as a notable absence, being how important it is as a circumstance. ATKINSON: It is an interesting oversight, isn’t it? Well, tell us how you conceptualize this. In the introduction I also spoke about the fact that you published and thought about this on an individual, population, and organizational level. Tell us about how you conceptualize religion as a social determinant of health. IDLER: Sure. I’ve been thinking about this for a long time. And I was really helped out by a group of researchers at Harvard, who published in July in the Journal of the AMA a big, systematic review and meta-analysis of studies on religion and health. There were two panels. One of them studied religion and spirituality in serious illness. So those were mostly patient studies. And the other study, the other panel, was for, they called it, health outcomes. So those were more epidemiological population-based studies with representative samples, so that the estimates could apply to a larger group. And that second group found a really, really strong evidence of association between how often people attended religious services and their rates of survival. So the higher the frequency of attendance at—the attendance part is critical. It’s the social part—(laughs)—of joining with a group of people on a regular basis. And people who had that social tie were much more likely than people who did not have that social tie. And there’s what epidemiologists call a dose response relationship. So the higher the frequency, the greater the survival. And at various steps along the way, survival declined. But that was one of the findings. There were many findings. But that was certainly one of them. And it was the one for which the researchers said there was the strongest evidence. So I would call that the evidence at the microlevel. It’s a way to think about the way religion plays out in the health arena. And in the lives of individuals, the presence of a religious community and attachment to it is definitely protective of health. That was really strong evidence with respect to mortality and many other health outcomes that they look at. But there are other levels. We can think about it at the institutional and also at the state level. But I don’t know if you want me to stop there and—(laughs)—or talk a little bit about those two. You let me know. ATKINSON: Yes, we’ll get to that. Bill, I want to get you in the conversation here about how do you see that religious faith fits into this control knob framework? You’ve worked in numerous countries, over twenty countries, working on revision of their healthcare systems. And what’s been your experience of how religious faith fits into the control knob framework? HSIAO: It fits very closely and tightly because we have to—we asked the countries to define their goals for health care. And where equity is the principal, equity or equality of health outcomes and a reduce of impoverishment. So what determines the equity part? Well, in the books I’ve coauthored with three others, we emphasized the ethics, ethical values, of a nation. We show you how important this is. For a country, when my team and I go in, the first thing I ask them to do is, one, to form a steering committee to define their equity principles based on ethical principles, values. But of course, ethical principles are influenced strongly by religious faith. And now also we ask them to allow us to have focus groups with the public, or even large public meetings. Again, common people’s values of equity is influenced by religion. So in my work under the control knob is that actually religion has a very close tie and strong influence on the goals a country sets for itself. But it’s different between countries, though, because their values and their religion can differ greatly. ATKINSON: Well, I think this is an area here in the United States that we certainly could pay more attention to in terms of the ethics of equity in health care. And, Ellen, I want to return to—you and I had a conversation the other day, and I wanted to return to something we were talking about. We were talking about what faith-based organizations bring to partnerships. And I wonder if you can expand upon that for us, about what do you see as the real skillsets and advantages that FBOs bring to movements of social justice, particularly in the context of equity in health care? IDLER: That’s a great way to put the question. Faith-based organizations in the United States and around the world play an incredibly important role in health. And I’ve just been reading for a chapter that I’ve been working on about the amount of aid that goes to more and more faith-based organizations around the world, and accounts for a good amount of global health spending, especially by philanthropic organizations like the Gates Foundation. And in the United States, there have been many examples of real, I think, sort of organized efforts in crises, especially, to respond to them. And in April 2019, we did a special section of the American Journal of Public Health featuring the work of faith-based organizations as partners with public health in meeting public health goals. And one of the chapters, just to lift up one example, was by my colleague at Emory, Mimi Kiser, who was one of the principals in the interfaith health program that began at the Carter Center in the 1990s, and then moved to Emory around 2000. And the interfaith health program in 2009 worked together with federal government agencies to organize faith-based organizations’ vaccine drives for the H1N1 influenza response. And from that, they developed ten sites around the country where vaccinations were given to especially hard-to-read populations. That was the title of the article was, “Faith-Based Organizations Role in Accessing Hard-to-Reach Populations.” One of the sites provided over four thousand vaccinations and more than 40 percent of the people who were getting them did not have health insurance. And this is after the Affordable Care Act. So they were getting flu vaccines, for free, into communities. And, for example, one story was about how well one particular group could go out to vaccinate migrant farm workers by being there at the crack of dawn before they went out into the fields to work, and then also being there in the evening when they returned. So reaching hard-to-reach populations is important, and is possible, from faith-based organizations because they play a trusted role in their community. And this particular drive that they might want to be working on is only one piece of the overall mission of that faith-based organization. So it has the context of being a known quantity that has social capital in its community and can really play on the assets of that community. ATKINSON: Bill, can you give some concrete examples of how religious faith has shaped health policy? And in particular, what population groups were affected? HSIAO: Well, I can give a couple concrete examples around the world. Well, one—let’s say, in another country. And the obvious way is gender inequality. And some faiths actually do not treat women as co-equal. And when they invite us in to design their health policy, to formulate policy, they reveal that preference towards males, and for sons, and so forth. And we had to struggle with that and try to persuade them that’s not what WHO or UN Declaration of Human Rights, and so forth. That’s one example of it. But in United States, the obvious example is on abortion. And abortion is so closely tied with religious faith of different groups, and I don’t need to explain how that shapes the politics of it and even court rulings, and then—so. But putting in a more positive light, faith, usually I find—regardless if it’s Christianity or Judaism or Islam or Hinduism or—(inaudible)—because I work in all of these countries—they really all embrace certain fundamental beliefs about human beings. And they expect a basic principle that every human being may have some part which is given by God. So there’s a divine part. Usually it’s defined as goodness part of ourselves. And so in using the control knob that we’re trying to say, OK, you want to create equity or equality in the health outcomes of your people? Then which group has been mostly neglected, OK? And Ellen just pointed out, you have interfaith groups. Yes, I observe many interfaith groups doing very good work globally. However, I will just say they don’t cover that many people, I’m sorry to say. You really need government to take a major role to deliver basic health care and basic education to people. You cannot just rely on charity and the faith-based dedicated people. They can make a difference, but it doesn’t make it universal. ATKINSON: Before we turn to you now, how do we move forward in terms of partnerships to improve equity to health care, Bill, I just want to check in with you. So how many nations that you’ve worked with have used this control knob framework to redesign their healthcare systems? And how successful have they been? HSIAO: Actually, I personally got involved with nearly twenty countries around the world. But including the two largest ones, China and India. Together, they have 40 percent of the population of the world. I’m also working in Africa, the Middle East. So among the twenty, the program we actually designed for them, I’m sorry to say, did not take into account the social determinants. So there, let me explain. All the WHO, and the world now, is talking about social determinants of health, which is important. But government structure is not built that way. The minister of health doesn’t control housing, food. There you have to talk to the prime minister or president. They usually pay attention to creating jobs for people. Even President Biden. It’s, how do I control inflation? How do I reduce war? The top person doesn’t get into these issues about social determinants, where he or she has to bring all the ministers together. (Inaudible)—in human rights. It’s a determinant of health. Education is definitely. Environment, income, general equality. And I don’t need to bore you with how many ministers, as far as consensus, you have to bring. So I applaud people who really push for social determinants. And I know—(inaudible). However, the practical world, I discover you really have limitations because the governance structure of the government make it very difficult to make that a reality. And WHO, which I serve on the advisory council, knows that. So I call it a noble vision, but I will argue, let’s pay attention and make a real difference rather than just put out noble vision. ATKINSON: So before we open it to the floor to receive questions, Ellen, how do you see us going forward from here in terms of partnerships that could be established to really help move forward equity and accessibility in health care? IDLER: Well, my long-range plan on that—(laughs)—is to educate students to understand the structures and missions of other organizations so that they can work together. At Emory, we have a dual degree program between the Candler School of Theology and the Rollins School of Public Health. And we have a certificate program. And so we have a structure that allows students studying for a master’s in public health, for example, to sit in a classroom for a semester with students who are studying at the Candler’s School of Theology to work in some faith-based organizations or in local congregations. And because they can influence each other’s thinking about this and make the presence of that other structure real. And I feel like while they’re students now, they will be leaders of their organizations. And ten years from now, fifteen years from now, they could be in a position to see a situation where the possibility of partnership is made much more real because of the fact that they had this educational experience that’s going to carry with them. So that’s my long-term plan. (Laughs.) ATKINSON: And, Bill, from your vantage point as an economist working on healthcare reform for forty years, how do you see that the faith-based organizations could help move the agenda forward? HSIAO: I really think the faith-based organizations actually have a tremendous amount of influence. But you have to go through the intermediate step, apply to your faith, your religious faith, translate that into a set of ethical standards, which I call values, which then can be used in policy. Because policy, including the United States believing we should provide health care through the market, OK? That’s a policy decision. And if you understand through the teaching of the faith that you want to have greater equality, markets cannot achieve that for you. You’ve got the exact opposite. The poor people cannot afford it. And insurance companies will not insure the elderly people and disabled people. So I would urge faith organizations to really understand what criteria that are the control knobs. Which is used, by the way, now close to 36,000 policymakers around the world. The ministry of finance, ministry of planning, the ministry of health. This is through an executive program financed by World Bank that’s done by WHO. So you want to do that translation, that would be what I hope. ATKINSON: Well, thank you, both. I just want to invite our participants now to ask a question. You can either put it in the chat or you can click on the raised hand icon. And we will call upon you. FASKIANOS: Yes. That is correct, Holly. (Gives queuing instructions.) And I’m looking now for raised hands, to see if anybody—oh! We have our first raised hand from Galen. GUENGERICH: Thank you, Irina. And thank you to the panel for a fascinating discussion. I have one very quick question and then one that perhaps a little bit more discussion. FASKIANOS: And, Galen, introduce yourself, please. GUENGERICH: Oh, I’m sorry. I’m Galen Guengerich, senior minister of All Souls in New York, and a member of the Council. A question for Ellen. Do you have a percentage of the decrease in all-causes mortality between the most active participants and the nonparticipants in religious communities? So that’s a simple question. The other question is probably for Bill. You’ve talked a lot about the importance of policy, and the importance of getting government at various levels to do what they need to do policy-wise, so that the inequities are reduced. When it comes to the role of individual religious communities, where is the greatest point of leverage? In other words, it's pretty simple for me to open our buildings and get volunteers to do something like have a vaccine clinic. Where do I point people to effect policy most effectively? Thank you. ATKINSON: So, Ellen, percent decrease in all-cause mortality? IDLER: I can take the first one. It’s easy. So there was a systematic analysis that, if I could just quote a study of my own that was in PLOS One in 2017, we analyzed data from the health and retirement study. And so people who attended weekly or more often were 40 percent less likely to have died by a twelve-year follow-up period—ten, sorry—ten years—compared with people who never attended. And then it was—so it was a 40 percent reduction and then, like, 30 and 20 percent reductions for people who had some ties to faith communities, but yeah. And that’s from fully adjusted models. That’s after taking account of the health status of people at the beginning of the study, and other kinds of health behaviors. And so it’s—and income, and education, and all of those things. So that’s the final most adjusted model, 40 percent difference. HSIAO: My answer to you is that I believe there are two vehicles where the individual religious organization can make the most difference. One is actually, particularly here in the United States, is to get people to discuss the ethical value for health care. And then they can influence other social determinants, as well as the direct health care itself. The second part is to actually engage in some political organizations, like Boston has the Great Boston Interfaith Council, which then they promote political action. They’re very effective because religious organizations have a moral standing. And the people really listen to religious organizations and groups organized by religious groups. Those are my quick comments. ATKINSON: Hmm. Ellen, that reminds me of an opinion piece that I believe you wrote in the American Journal of Public Health about best practices for faith-based organizations and religious institutions to engage in these kinds of partnerships. Can you review some of those for us, that you’ve really been able to identify as those top best practices for an institution to engage in? IDLER: Uh-oh. This is a test. I don’t have that piece of paper on my desk right here, but I will call up some things from memory. I think that mutual respect is one of the most important lessons that come from partnerships. There is some history of distrust by religious groups of public health. And some of the Tuskegee studies and other things that I’m sure we could all mention of very, very bad public health processes that have resulted in even more injustice. So the role of public health as a social justice warrior in our culture—(laughs)—we might think of that as fairly recent. And in the past, it wasn’t always so. And so there are—there is mistrust. And I think that in public health, a lot of times we talk about getting religious groups to do this for us. And there’s an instrumentality to the idea of using faith communities to accomplish some public health goals that doesn’t recognize the importance, fullness, and much broader mission of those public health—of those faith-based organizations or religious congregations. So I would say mutual respect and care in working out and finding where the common ground is is really a big message. Because faith-based organizations or congregations and public health have—they both have missions. And their missions may overlap at times, but most of the time their missions don’t overlap very much. And so finding where there can be common ground is a lot like what we talk about as bipartisanship in politics. Find where you both want to work together on something to accomplish it, and leave the other parts aside. And so it really requires strategy, and being willing, I think, to find where that area of common ground is, even if it’s not obvious at first. ATKINSON: Thank you. FASKIANOS: Thank you. And the next question is, right, from Lawrence Whitney. WHITNEY: Hi. Lawrence Whitney. I’m a research associate at the National Museum of American History and a fellow at the Center for Mind and Culture in Boston. Question about the ways you see different religions interacting in public health situations around the world. And I’m thinking particularly when COVID started there were a number of folks claiming that Confucian societies were better able to handle the pandemic. And then a group of policy experts in Global Policy Journal noted that arguing that Confucianism explained East Asia’s success would be as implausible that Europe and the United States’ failures stem from their Christian roots. No serious study has yet offered evidence for such claims. Of course, two months later Andrew Whitehead and Sam Perry came out with a study pointing out that Christian nationalism actually has been a key factor in limiting our ability to handle the pandemic here in the U.S. So I’m wondering if you could comment on the ways different religions interact differently in these spaces and can be helpful, but also detrimental, to the goals of public health. HSIAO: So you’re asking me or Ellen? (Laughs.) WHITNEY: Yes. ATKINSON: Either. IDLER: Well— HSIAO: Well—go ahead, please, Ellen. IDLER: OK. I’ll jump in. I will say that I was very attuned to the headlines about religion during the COVID epidemic, especially at the start of it. And there were a lot of negatives here in the United States, but around the world too. And some of the outbreaks occurred in religious settings initially. People sing—(laughs)—very often when they are in worship services. And singing is a really bad way to project a lot of aerosols. So I did, with a couple of grad students, a text analysis of articles on religion and COVID in the New York Times, from January 2020 through July 2020. And we also looked at the text for the guidelines for faith communities from the World Health Organization and the CDC. And finally, went to the websites of every religious group around the world I could find that had a COVID statement on it, and analyzed all this text together. It definitely was different from the headlines. The New York Times—we did two things. We did a sentiment analysis, which is based on emotion kind of words, and saw a very strong trend from the quite negative to the reasonably positive sentiment in the New York Times for articles on COVID and religion. And we also did a topic analysis, which showed a considerable overlap between the topics of—that were present in the CDC and World Health Organization documents and the COVID statements that were on the websites of religious groups. And that was fascinating. It wasn’t like they posted the text from the WHO guidelines at all. These were very much faith-based organization statements about their own group’s response. So the message from the actors themselves was a lot more positive than what might have appeared in the headlines. However, I certainly would not want to ignore the fact that religious liberty arguments were being made about the freedom from wearing masks, and not wearing—not getting vaccines. And so, yeah, there was the Christian nationalism, and Perry and Whitehead are great. That was a really, really good contribution from them. So certainly, that was there. But on balance, there was a much more positive response of the organizations on their own websites, but also big webinars that the National Council of Churches ran repeatedly. And so it was a mixed, but on the whole positive, kind of analysis that we got from our analyzing all that text. ATKINSON: Bill, do you want to add to that at all? HSIAO: Yes, because the question is about Confucianism. And I came to the United States at age twelve, but I take a deep interest in Chinese philosophy. So I read some Confucianist writings. I think that Confucianism—Confucianists do not emphasize God or a supreme being. It’s really more a philosophy. And the one major point of philosophy influence this COVID or public health is for the—people who rule, they must actually preserve their position. That means they are looking after the welfare of the people. So in the COVID pandemic, you see the East Asian countries that embrace Confucianism—that’s including Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore—these countries’ leaders took action very quickly, unlike the democracy, democratic form of government, like the United States. And then, of course, there are tradeoffs. China has autocratic government. Originally, policy was very good, but then they make the wrong policy with the—as the COVID, the virus, mutated. And so there are tradeoffs under that Confucianist teaching. However, I just want to emphasize, if they were really practicing what Confucius taught, it’s to be a political leader you have to be observant. You show to people you actually can bring them benefit. And I would say you can say there is some compatibility with democracy here. FASKIANOS: Thank you. We have several questions in the chat. So I’m going to take the first one, read the first one from Lai Sze Tso from Gustavus Adolphus College. The translation process for FBOs sounds fascinating. Would there be feedback from local, national, non-FBO health and government administrators? Or are we targeting international charities/USAID? I don’t know who wants to take that. HSIAO: I think that’s for you, Ellen. (Laughs.) IDLER: I’m not sure I understand the question’s point. So I’m—is it about the leverage points, or? I’m not sure I— FASKIANOS: Lai, are you in a position to unmute and clarify for us? If not, we can go to the next question. IDLER: I’m sorry. (Laughs.) FASKIANOS: No, that’s OK. That’s OK. Sometimes with the written questions it’s a little bit more challenging. SZE TSO: Hello? FASKIANOS: Oh, hi, yes. SZE TSO: Hi. So the translation process was referring to when Bill said that for faith-based organizations instead of directly doing work that is charitable with limited effect in a community, that it would be even more effective to translate ideals and goals and ethics into a set of standards. And I was hoping for additional clarification on if that was just at the local and national level, or are we also engaging more widely with international charities, as well as strong influences from organizations like USAID? HSIAO: Oh, I’m sorry. I misunderstood the question. And sorry I throw that hot potato to you, Ellen. (Laughter.) Let me offer my quick comment. I think actually you want to influence health policy decided by the domestic government. And I would consider that the main avenue. So you want influence in a country, the local churches or even mosques can actually influence how people think and express their views about health, about equity, and access to health care. That’s domestic. Internationally, well, actually, the United States under President Bush did this, which I experienced. Any country to even mention, use the word “Planned Parenthood” cannot receive U.S. foreign aid. And during this administration, actually, the population, the birth control and so forth, really took a major hit. So we can look through the government channels. But through the NGOs, with interfaith organizations, they continue to do very good work. However, let me just say this. Historically, the Christian missionaries went overseas offer free education or free health clinic and drugs. (Inaudible)—I’m trying to draw you into my faith. That history is still there. It makes the local people very suspicious when they hear it’s an interfaith organization doing something. They wonder what’s the other motive behind it. And so some interfaith organizations were able to overcome that very successfully, but others may not. Because there’s a variety of interfaith organizations working in the world. Literally tens of thousands of them. That’s all. SZE TSO: Thank you. FASKIANOS: Great. So we have several questions. The next question I’ll take is from Heather Laird. I appreciate the discussion on ethics. I found in the work of mental health, ethical humility is needed. Oftentimes, collective values are missed completely in many charters and ethical codes. Do you find this to be the case across health care in general? This is a question for both of you. As you are looking at social determinants, how do you account for diverse views of equity? And how do you ensure voices are represented? And Dr. Heather Laird is at the Center for Muslim Mental Health and Islamic Psychology. HSIAO: Do you want to go first, or do you want me to? (Laughs.) IDLER: I think we can both try to answer this question. Great question. So the social determinants of health framework originated with researchers in the UK. And that’s somewhat ironic, isn’t it, because of the National Health Service and the provision of universal health care to people that is free at the point of service and has been since 1948. And so I think that was somewhat of a surprise to people, to find out that income and education and the other social determinants play such an important role in health status of the U.K. population, given that they already had a very robust system of health care in place that was equitable and accessible to everyone. In the United States, we understand that people do not all have health care. And still, 10 percent of our population remains without insurance, and many people are underinsured. And we also know that medical bills are a big cause of bankruptcy. So it’s—health care is actually driving poverty, driving inequality in a really bad way. So I guess we sort of know that. And the social determinants of health framework makes sense all around us here in the U.S. But even in other countries, where there is equitable access to health care, quality health-care services, there is still inequality with health. HSIAO: If I understand your question correctly, you want to know about mental health. Is that correct? Let me comment about what I observed around the world. Around the world, the awareness of mental health is not at such a high level as the United States or European countries. And usually, it’s out of ignorance. And because their education level is very low. As Ellen pointed out, that’s a social determinant of health too. And so therefore mental health is neglected. But meanwhile, physical illness is so visible—the pain, or the fever, or disability is so—mental health has lagged behind. Partly, though, I would say religion also has something to do with it, if I may just say. The question is, in your religious faith do you believe psychology is an important part of the human makeup? Let’s say Russia’s system, Russia and the materialism doesn’t believe psychology has any role. That’s not part of our human makeup. And so I work in China trying to overcome that. And they are now trying psychiatry. And they do not—and the social stigma for the mental health is so severe that you have to overcome all these barriers to be able to bring in really medical health. And the educational part actually becomes the first—as far as really educating the public as well as the policymakers—to say how important mental health is. And that that would draw on the literature, really studies, evidence from the United States and from European countries. ATKINSON: Well, thank you, both. Unfortunately, we are out of time. It has gone very quickly. And I am going to turn it now back to Irina. FASKIANOS: Great. I’m sorry that we couldn’t get to the additional questions but, as Holly said, we are out of time. Thank you all for today’s hour discussion. It was very insightful. We encourage you to follow Bill’s work at hsps.harvard.edu and Ellen’s work at sociology.emory,edu. And you can also follow CFR’s Religion and Foreign Policy program on Twitter at @CFR_religion. Please do email us with suggestions for future topics and speakers. You can send us an email to [email protected]. Wishing you all very happy holidays. Our next Religion and Foreign Policy Webinar will be in the new year on protests in Iran, on Wednesday, January 11, at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time. So we will reconvene in 2023. And again, wishing you all happy holidays. Stay safe and well.
  • Religion
    Religion and Foreign Policy Webinar: Religious Freedom and U.S. National Security
    Play
    Peter Mandaville, senior advisor for the religion and inclusive societies program at United States Institute of Peace, and Knox Thames, visiting expert at United States Institute of Peace, discuss their recent report, “Maintaining International Religious Freedom as a Central Tenet of US National Security.” Azza Karam, secretary general at Religions for Peace International, moderates. Learn more about CFR's Religion and Foreign Policy Program. FASKIANOS: Thank you. Welcome to the Council on Foreign Relations Religion and Foreign Policy Webinar series. I’m Irina Faskianos, vice president of the National Program and Outreach here at CFR. This webinar series convenes religious and faith-based leaders in cross-denominational dialogue on the intersection between religion and international relations. Today’s session is on the record and the audio, video, and transcript will be made available on CFR’s website, CFR.org, and on the iTunes podcast channel Religion and Foreign Policy. As always, CFR takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. We are delighted to have Azza Karam with us to moderate today’s discussion on religious freedom and U.S. national security. Dr. Azza Karam is secretary general of Religions for Peace International, and professor of religion and development at the Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam, Netherlands. Previously, she served as a senior advisor on culture at the United Nations Population Fund, coordinator and chair of the United Nations Interagency Task Force on Religion and Development, and president of the Committee of Religious NGOs at the United Nations. And before I turn it over to Azza to moderate this conversation, I want to thank her and Peter Mandaville, who is one of our speakers, for serving on CFR’s Religion and Foreign Policy Advisory Committee. We appreciate all of their guidance over the past several years to help us with our programming and activities. So with that, Azza, over to you to introduce Peter and Knox. KARAM: Thank you very much, indeed. It is a true privilege for me and a real pleasure to be able to moderate this session with two scholars and practitioners who have done a great deal not only in the space of religious freedom, but actually assessing and looking at the nexus of freedoms, democracy, human rights, and religions writ large—which, as we all know, is a very topical and temporal issue. But we also know that religious freedom is a very critical aspect of—increasingly a critical aspect not only for the United States’ foreign policy, but as it intersects with foreign policy and domestic policies of many countries around the world, and certainly with the engagement of religious organizations and interreligious actors in many places and spaces. So we’re in a good moment, so to speak, to discuss religious freedom. But we’re also in a very appropriate space at the Council on Foreign Relations to be able to assess and understand together from two leading experts in this space on precisely how and why international religious freedom should be a main tenet of U.S. foreign policy. And I am quoting their singular report, which was very recently issued after a great deal of debate and research, within and under the auspices of the United States Institute of Peace. I have the privilege to introduce these two giants of this space. Peter Mandaville is a senior advisor for the Religion and Inclusive Societies team at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP). He has twenty-five years of academic think tank and government experience, focusing on the intersection of religion, international affairs, and the Muslim-majority world. At USIP, Dr. Mandaville leads an initiative focused on the security and peacebuilding implications of religion in the external relations of great powers. He’s also a professor of international affairs, and director of the AbuSulayman Center for Global Islamic Studies at George Mason University, and a fellow at Georgetown University’s Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs. Previously, Dr. Mandaville was a member of the United States State Department’s Policy Planning Staff, where he was involved in shaping the U.S. response to the Arab Spring, and a senior advisor in the Office of the Secretary of State. He is the author of many publications, amongst which Islam and Politics and Transnational Muslim Politics: Reimagining the Umma. Knox Thames is a visiting expert with the Middle East and Religion and Inclusive Societies team at the United States Institute of Peace. He joined USIP after twenty years of government service, including at the U.S. State Department, and two different U.S. government foreign policy commissions. Most recently, Mr. Thames served across two administrations as the special advisor for religious minorities in the Near East and South and Central Asia at the U.S. Department of State. In addition to his work at USIP, he is a senior fellow with the Institute for Global Engagement. Previously, Mr. Thames served on the U.S. Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, the U.S. Commission for International Religious Freedom, AmeriCorps, and is an adjunct research professor at the U.S. Army War College. Welcome to both of you. And I would like, before any detailed questions come up, I’d like very much to give the floor to each of you, starting with Peter, to describe a little bit the background to this incredible report, and what prompted it. How did you go about such a report? We understand you, in other conversations, have mentioned the word “bipartisan effort” repeatedly. Tell us a little bit, Peter, about this—the process of this report, and what you actually, in an ideal context, want to see achieved with it and by it? MANDAVILLE: Yes, great. Absolutely. Thank you very much, Azza. And let me just greet everyone who is joining us today, and to thank Irina and CFR for hosting us, and particularly to you, Azza, for moderating and navigating us through this discussion today. We’re honored and privileged to have someone who, as many of our participants will know, is herself as a towering figure, and someone who’s really shaped the way that many of us do this work, think about it, both in scholarship and in practice. So thank you, Azza. The origins of this report date back to a conversation that Knox and I had several—almost four years ago now, I think. He and I have known and worked together for two decades now. And while we have always had certain differences in terms of how each of us thinks about the question of religious freedom and appropriate approaches to it in U.S. foreign policy, I think it’s also fair to say that we’ve always deeply respected each other and the way that we go about the work that we do respectively. And in that conversation, we both registered some concern about the ways in which intense political polarization in U.S. domestic politics appear to be leaking into the way that we think about and work on questions of international religious freedom around the world. And so we agreed that it would be helpful to try and create a process and a space in which we could have and convene conversations about ways of finding common ground in this work, regardless of where one sits on an ideological spectrum. Are there certain aspects of international religious freedom promotion in U.S. foreign policy that we can all agree on? In late 2020, we both found ourselves taking up new affiliations at the U.S. Institute of Peace, and courtesy of an invitation from the former director of the Religion and Inclusive Societies team at USIP, Susie Hayward, and someone who I’m sure is known to many in the audience today. Susie encouraged us to move forward to create an experts working group focused on these questions. And so we were able to bring together about twenty leading figures on questions of international religious freedom. They represented a variety of sectors and professional backgrounds—some former government officials, some civil society practitioners and activists, and with them thought leaders and scholars on international religious freedom. They represented a wide range of political and ideological orientations. And we sat together with them. This was during the height of COVID, so much of the group’s interaction and discussion was virtual. But we convened this working group in a series of small group consultations to talk through a number of sort of essential questions, looking into how people view the politicization and political polarization in international religious freedom, and their ideas about how we might minimize it and find that common ground. We were, I want to add, supported invaluably in this work by USIP Research Assistant Emily Scolaro, who’s currently in the PhD program at UNC Chapel Hill. Her contributions and helping to manage, move this work forward, were incredibly important. We were also able to benefit, I think very importantly, from the participation, the active participation and endorsement of the work, from the two most recent past ambassadors-at-large for international religious freedom, Sam Brownback and David Saperstein. Obviously, individuals who served in two very different administrations, but who I think in their interaction with each other, in the way that they helped to shape the conversation space, modeled the very kind of bipartisanship and the sort of spirit that we were hoping would characterize their conversations, even when at times we began to talk very openly and frankly about partisan differences in terms of how people on different sides of the political aisle perceive the issue of religious freedom abroad, and how they perceive each other in their efforts and commitments to advance this work. The remarkable diversity that I just mentioned that characterized the group might suggest that we would have difficulty reaching consensus on a lot of issues, and certainly on any policy recommendations that we might want to put forward. And indeed, there were a couple of issues that came up where there were simply very respectfully articulated differences of opinion that meant that we were not able to come up with a recommendation that people were able to express comfort with. For example, one of the issues that came up, and one that will be familiar to many who work in this space, is the question of whether promoting religious freedom should be a function that stands on its own within the portfolio of U.S. foreign policy, or whether promoting religious freedom should be approached as a right that is nested within a broader approach to international human rights. And we just had a wide variety of opinions on that issue. That said, we were able to come up with eight or nine quite concrete recommendations that the vast majority of our working group members from—again, from a diverse range of ideological and political perspectives, felt comfortable with and were willing to endorse. And we’re looking forward to having the opportunity to talk through some of those with all of you today. Thanks. KARAM: Thank you very much, Peter. I think you’ve, indeed, painted the picture, and the aspiration, and the actors very, very nicely and succinctly. Knox, did you want to add anything to what Peter described in terms of the process of getting this, and putting this together as a report, and your own sort of aspiration there too? Go ahead. THAMES: I’d just add my thanks to you, Azza, and Irina, and CFR for hosting this. And also thank USIP for supporting the working group. These recommendations are recommendations from Peter and myself based on the input from the working group. They’re not working group recommendations, but they were certainly informed by the process and the vigorous debate that Peter referenced. When we were starting this, our—as any American knows, or any observer of U.S. politics knows, our domestic political space is really supercharged. It’s about how do you find the wedge issue that can rally the base. It’s about disagreement. And we were concerned that this issue of international religious freedom would be a partisan football in the way—or wedge issue—in the way that domestic religious liberty debates have become. We wanted to find, where are the areas that we agree, right left and center, drawing from experts from academia, former government appointees and civil servants, people of all faiths and none. I’m proud of what we were able to put together. And we’re hopeful that the recommendations we outlined will begin a new conversation and try to solidify a safe space where we can continue to think about ways to advance this fundamental human right that doesn’t jeopardize the work for future administrations and advocates. KARAM: One of the things that you’ve both spoken to is the extent to which there seems to be an understanding that is accepted on all sides, in spite of the polarization, that international religious freedom matters, it is important, and it should be an aspect of U.S. foreign policy. So it sounds as if there wasn’t much agreement necessarily on the what, but perhaps more of a different nuancing and perhaps open disagreement on the how this could or should be undertaken. Is that a correct understanding? And if so, what—in addition to the example that Peter raised, were there other issues where you felt there was not necessarily a common understanding on the how too? MANDAVILLE: I think we all went into this discussion with the awareness that promoting international religious freedom is something that the United States would continue to do. It is, after all, a matter of law. The International Religious Freedom Act of 1998 mandates that the U.S. Department of State undertake this work. So it’s not as if we could make recommendations to, say, a particular secretary of state, that they decide to stand down from advancing U.S. religious freedom abroad. It is a value that the United States Congress has committed the executive branch of the United States to carry forward. And so our question was more, what are the most effective ways of doing this? And how can we do this in ways that generates the broadest swath of support from the widest range of champions and advocates for this work? So certainly, that question of whether promoting religious freedom should be a stand-alone function, with its own specific structures, whether that’s the most effective approach in advancing this cause, or whether it’s most effectively approached as a broader—as one aspect of a broader U.S. commitment to human rights, which has tended to be the approach that many of our international partners, particularly in Europe, have taken. Although, there has been a notable trend in recent years of even our close European partners also creating their own dedicated special envoys and positions focused on freedom of religion or belief. And so that right there I think starts to point towards another area where there’s debate and discussion. Which is the distinctly American framing of religious freedom or religious liberty—something that I think is in part a function of the American story and American history—versus an international commitment, as enshrined in, for example, the UN’s Universal Declaration of Human Rights, to promoting freedom of religion or belief, FoRB as it’s commonly called. And these are terms that imply different kinds of framings and different understandings of the scope and breadth of what we’re talking about and what we’re championing. So I think that’s another concrete example of some of the terrain that we wandered across. THAMES: I would add, you’d also see in the recommendations we—the question of how does the United States accomplish this goal through foreign policy? And we have two different recommendations that talk about two different approach vectors. One is using the power of the United States to sanction, to penalize through the country of particular concern status, which the State Department and Secretary Blinken just released their designations on Friday. Versus a softer approach that’s looking to work at a community level to build capacity, to build space for, and appreciation for, diversity and tolerance. Sort of a step removed from the pure human rights advocacy approach. I think, unlike the “is it a holistic or an individual approach to the issue,” which the report couldn’t really—didn’t speak to, because we couldn’t really find a common approach to that question. There was a sense that we can do both, which due to the pure human rights advocacy to leverage the power the influence of the United States to be that force for good, to be the voice for the oppressed, while also using our resources to develop space for diversity of thought, appreciation for pluralism, which is a key building block to respect for human rights. KARAM: Just curious, because I’m not sure—I hope that everybody who’s listening in has managed to read the whole report. But for those who may not have had a chance to read it in full, what would you say are some of the key recommendations you want to make sure that everybody listening knows you made, that you feel are very important? What would you highlight or nuance? MANDAVILLE: Yeah, sure. Thanks for asking that, Azza. And I believe that there’s a link—or, will be a link to the report in the chat box, so that those who are joining us today who haven’t had the opportunity to download the report will be able to do so. There’s also a sort of tl;dr, too long; didn’t read, blog post version of it that is a very efficient 750 words, but kind of hits on our greatest hits in terms of the recommendations. So there are a couple that I would want to highlight briefly. One is a recommendation we have that is about expanding the range of partners and advocates within international religious freedom constituencies more broadly. There is certainly already, particularly in Washington, DC, a very well developed infrastructure for—within civil society, within political structures—for advocating for, funding, and supporting international religious freedom work. And I know that, for example, the State Department’s Office of International Religious Freedom, the U.S. Commission for International Religious Freedom—Knox, of course, has worked at both— relies enormously on this community to support their work. But this is a community that tends to be focused on the idea of religious freedom as a value, as a right, that should be advanced unto itself. And that makes sense. Religious freedom, freedom of religion and belief, is a key constituent element of international human rights commitments. But I think there are also opportunities—and we argue that there are opportunities for expanding the range of partners and champions for international religious freedom, by drawing attention to the ways in which discrimination against certain populations and communities on the basis of religion, the oppression and suppression of those communities, can at times in certain settings be immediate sources of instability and violence. In other words, there is a national security rationale. There’s a relationship between dynamics of stability and instability, and international religious freedom. And we can point to any number of conflicts around the world—in South and Southcentral Asia, in the Middle East, in sub-Saharan Africa, where those kinds of dynamics are at work. And so we are encouraging our colleagues who work in the broader national security community to understand that in addition to being a core human rights issue, advancing religious freedom, advancing and protecting the rights of religious minorities, for example, can be directly related to efforts to generate greater stability and to foster positive peacebuilding, and enduring peacebuilding outcomes, in a number of settings around the world. A second recommendation that we focus on—and I’ll register this as actually a bit of a surprise for me, in terms of where our discussion with the group came out. We at one point in the discussion took up the question of the relationship between promoting international religious freedom as a foreign policy function and engaging with religious actors more broadly as a foreign policy function. Those of you who are familiar with the bureaucratics, the ambient bureaucratics around this question in U.S. foreign policy, will know that in 2013 under former Secretary of State John Kerry, the State Department created a new office called the Office of Religion in Global Affairs, that understood itself to be working on the broader effort to raise awareness among American diplomats of the importance of religion as a force in societies around the world. And to increase the capacity of American diplomats to engage routinely with religious actors as they go about pursuing whatever their diplomatic objectives might be, and to make the point that that kind of work is separate and distinct from promoting religious freedom, which is tied to a particular normative commitment. It’s a values-based effort. And so we wanted to say that these are two complementary, and to some extent related, but also quite separate functions. The Trump administration made the decision to take that Office of Religion in Global Affairs and to put it under the existing Office of International Religious Freedom. And so it became what is today known as the Strategic Religious Engagement Unit within the State Department’s Office of International Religious Freedom. We found broad support—and this is a point that Knox and I also both agree on—on the idea that it would be better to take the strategic religious engagement function out of the Office of International Religious Freedom, in order to give it more space to forge its own unique working relationships with other relevant offices and bureaus at the State Department. And for these two functions to proceed in parallel, in cooperation, and working together in the many occasions when it would be appropriate to do that, but also to have their own space to pursue their own distinct roles. THAMES: And I would add that there are a few that resonate with me. One is sort of obvious but needs to be said. Organizations and individuals who work to promote international religious freedom should avoid the temptation to politicize it. That they need to just have a rock-solid commitment to advancing this issue, and leaving politics at home, here at home, and not trying to muddy the waters by throwing stones at advocates from a different political party. So just don’t do it. But two other ones I’ll speak a bit more about. One is just recognizing the difference between the debates here at home, which are important, and situations internationally, which are generally life and death. We know that the cases before the Supreme Court stir great passions. They’re very important. But they’re generally about the finer nuances of how to prefect the protection of religious liberty here at home. The issues confronting advocates and religious communities regarding international religious freedom are about violence, they’re about the lack of justice, they’re about persecution, death, even genocide, as we’re seeing in places like China and Myanmar. So we need to keep that perspective. So don’t politicize it. Don’t blur terminology with what we’re doing—what’s happening here at home, with the situation that’s drastically different overseas. And then, lastly, we talk about there is a community of suffering. Different belief groups that are being persecuted for trying to pursue as their conscience leads. They’re converts, members who are of the humanist community, atheists and agnostics. But then also, members of sexual and gender minorities, the LGBT community. They’re often facing many of the same social and legal challenges that can lead to severe persecution. But those communities aren’t in conversation with each other. So we talk about how to address this pandemic of persecution that we see confronting so many parts of the world, building new alliances between unusual or unconventional allies can start to elevate the issue in new ways, and hopefully bring about results. Because if we can improve the conditions for one community, it’ll often have positive reverberations for others. It’s not that we’re asking them to endorse issues that they would disagree with, but rather a common commitment, a common belief in just the dignity of the human person. And on that ground alone, we should be advocating for the fundamental human rights of every individual. And that’s a possibility that I think has yet to be fully explored. KARAM: I’m glad you said that, because not to preempt what I’m sure will be some very pertinent and important questions from the audience, but just to raise a couple of issues for your consideration that perhaps may also help you pull up other recommendations and nuances from your report. The first issue, to me, is you mentioned China. And I’m thinking, OK, working with civil societies, the U.S. to work with civil society, or impose sanctions. And I’m thinking, I don’t see that happening exactly in the context of a country like China, which is oppressing, or at least is on the record for having, oppressing, certain religious minorities. So in cases where it’s beyond arguing about politicizing, it is being politicized. It is a political issue. (Laughs.) It is very much politicized. So how then would you, speaking to your fellow colleagues in the State Department and others, what would your advice be, given that particular country dynamic, and the relationship that exists at the moment between the United States, China, and Russia? What then would your report actually say as a recommendation for promoting international religious freedom in that context? That’s one question. So please just let me know your thoughts. THAMES: We specifically elevate what’s happening in China as evidence of an opportunity to build a broader coalition around a very dire situation. Of course, from the religious freedom advocacy perspective, China is one of the worst countries of the world for the genocide against the Uighurs, the cultural genocide and physical repression of the Tibetan Buddhists, the limitations on Christianity, Falun Gong, the list goes on. But we know, as we’ve seen China start to flex its economic muscles internationally to promote a global system that I think is antithetical to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights but also other core strategic interests, it presents an opportunity to build that broader tent. To where it’s not just religious freedom advocates raising concerns about China, but it’s also folks who want a free and fair-trade relationship, organizations that are concerned about Taiwan and its independence. It’s an interesting opportunity to build that broader tent. But also, I would say, just having worked in the State Department advocating for human rights as an American diplomat is hard. You’re constantly confronted with all the different challenges a superpower faces. So of course, we carry our values into these conversations. I’m proud that our country does that. But it’s also we balance them with security, energy, trade, counterterrorism. So it’s hard work as well. And there’s always the risk of hypocrisy. So part of our—and this isn’t so much covered in the report. This would be more my own personal view is challenging our country to make sure that we’re a consistent advocate for our values, and that we’re consistently carrying those into every conversation, and they don’t get shifted down to the third or fourth talking point, and thus never raised. MANDAVILLE: And I’ll add to that, and I’ll also be going beyond the boundaries of our report here, but also touching on some work that I’m doing here at USIP as well as in my academic perches. I think that there is a broader kind of new geopolitics of religion that we are all confronting right now. It has very much to do with the ways in which we see in operation today transnational networks grounded, at least in part, in religion, in which some of the major strategic rivals of the United States—certainly Russia, China less so, but countries like India, certain domestic groups even here in the United States as well—are all looped into this. And a lot of it has to do with a struggle between inclusivists versus exclusivist understandings of religion and religious identities in ways that have fairly intense human rights implications. So it’s not just a set of individual cases and a matter of U.S. bilateral relations. I think there’s a broader transnational geopolitical construct of religion working behind a lot of today’s geopolitics. We’re finding it expressed through multilateral spaces, such as the G20. We’re finding it expressed through, for example, the Organization for Islamic Cooperation, that the United States has had some level of, at times, direct representation through a special envoy. But there are countries—there are emerging powers in Asia, such as China, that have identified the OIC, usually a neglected multilateral space in the eyes of the United States, as a useful platform for advancing certain agendas. And so I think it’s important for us to be aware of these dynamics and to engaged with them. And I think that the kind of combined space of religious engagement and international religious freedom are part and parcel of how we do that. KARAM: Thank you. You both answered this very, very well. And in a way, it kind of begs the concern, the question which is also a concern, that it is already a politicized domain. I mean, geopolitics of religion is a reality that we are living in the midst of today. So trying to keep politics out of it may well be much easier said than done. And in that case, I think one of your recommendations that you make becomes particularly important to understand and appreciate, which is keep the international religious freedom space, office, and engagement—separate from engagement with broader religious issues. Because, in a way, you’re also trying to reduce the politicization dynamics that already exist. And you stand a better chance, perhaps, of pushing for international religious freedom if you’re trying to keep it outside of the—of the contentiousness of the political and geopolitical debates. And perhaps—I’m actually begging the questions that you raised, in addition to also, in a sense, asking us to be very understanding of the complexities that are already in action. And I think—I think one of the many advantages of your report is that you’ve looked at it from a myriad of different angles, and you’ve presented something that even though it is fundamentally about positioning international religious freedom as a main tenet of U.S. foreign policy, you’ve also made the case very critically for how the United States foreign policy can continue to support and protect human rights as a whole. And I want to make sure that that gets underlined and understood. Because you could have—it could have been exclusively about international religious freedom. But one of the many advantages, and I think very wise things, that your report does is you show that intersectionality with broad human rights issues. And you underline the commitment of the United States to the defense of human rights, which in and of itself is a strategic move that you have made with the report. So I want to commend you both on that. Very, very quickly, I just want us to—want your opinion, your read, on the aspect of civil society, the role of civil society in the promotion of this. Because we tend, all of us, to presume that civil society is sort of monolithic space. And you know better than anyone else how fraught civil society is, and how sometimes civil society mirrors the challenges within a government structure, or an administration itself. So what were your thoughts on that when you were putting forward one of the soft approaches of engaging civil society? But what if civil society itself is torn about this issue? What then? THAMES: We highlight some emerging networks of civil society activists that I think are very positive, as someone who’s been in this space for a couple of decades now. The movements of international religious freedom, the roundtables, the networks of parliamentarians, and now governments. But the roundtables, bringing together people of all faiths and none, you go to these events, and you see Baptists sitting next to atheists next to Muslims next to Buddhists. These are gatherings that just weren’t happening twenty years ago. And it, I think, adds strength to the issue, to show that it’s not just about one group advocating for their own. It’s about all groups recognizing this issue’s important for everyone. If one group doesn’t have religious freedom in a certain environment, does anyone really have it? So that’s a positive step. And we elevate them as an example of—to be emulated and to be expanded upon. But I think when you’re looking at communities in the broken countries, where there is persecution, there’s often a fracturing that makes it very difficult to know how to engage, how to advocate. You see this in numerable country contexts, that I’m sure we’re both familiar with. Many are coming to mind. And there’s no quick solution to that, unfortunately, because we know that the oppressor—the oppressive governments often play upon those divisions as well to lessen the impact of their voice. MANDAVILLE: And I’ll add just this briefly, if I may, Azza. You’re absolutely right, of course, that civil society organizations that work in this space, many of whom receive funding from governmental sources and therefore have baked into the DNA of their work some of the contradictions and tensions that are present in government policy approaches. Civil society is, of course, also reflective of broader society, which means that some of that polarization, some of those political biases and orientations are present in civil society as well. I think a recognition of that reality is precisely the pretext for this report. I have often joked with Knox when we looked at the recommendations at the end that, wow, this is really boring stuff. (Laughter.) Like there is nothing particularly interesting and intriguing and profound here. This is all pretty commonsensical stuff. But our idea was that we had just come out of a period of particularly intense political polarization as we started the process. I have no reason to believe that we are not likely to go through another round of that in another couple of years. These sorts of differences of opinion politically, and with respect to this work more specifically, have always been part of its story and always will be. So what we wanted to create was a reference point, a safe harbor, if you will, such that when those polarizing winds begin to blow, and blow strongly again, there’s a reference point that we can turn to remind ourselves of certain core things that we do all agree upon, no matter where we sit politically around these issues. KARAM: Beautifully put. And I just want to now make sure to give a chance to our audience, who I’m sure you’ve provoked and enthused enough for questions. But just one small point to that last point, to both of you, to take into consideration perhaps if you were to do a follow up or maybe the other 750 word postscript to this report. Which is to continue to harness the experiences of working multi-religiously to defend religious freedom as a community of diverse religious leaders. And some of those experiences go underground and are not necessarily noted, when in fact I think, Knox, you were also already mentioning you see varied people coming around the table. But when religious leaders from different religious currents are actually sitting together in defense of one another, not of their own respective community, there is a very potent strategic and almost spiritual strength in that, that I think even not having—this doesn’t have to serve as part of the U.S. foreign policy, but U.S. foreign policy needs to be respectful of that particular dynamic, and fully aware and conscious of it. And I think that is an important footnote to what you’re both trying very eloquently and powerfully to articulate. THAMES: That’s more than a footnote. That should be the headline. Yes, that’s an important point. KARAM: Great. So I’m not sure whether it’s—this is a good now time for me to inquire of our colleagues in the CFR, Irina and colleagues, to perhaps let us know what the Q&A situation is like? OPERATOR: Yes. Absolutely. Thank you, Azza. (Gives queuing instructions.) Our first question comes from Sarah Shabbir at the U.S. Department of State. Please accept the “unmute now” prompt. Looks as though we are having technical difficulties. So we will take our next written question from Guthrie Grave-Fitzsimmons from the Baptist Joint Committee for Religious Liberty, who says: Do you believe Christians face religious freedom threats in the United States? Because this is such a big issue in the news, do you think the idea of Christian persecution in the United States is possibly making progressives conditioned to be wary of international religious freedom, when they should be natural allies of human rights concerns? THAMES: That is a great question, and one that was a context in which all of the discussions took place. And we had an interesting conversation that didn’t make it into the final version of the report between sort of different sides of the issues about framing, about terminology, and how the superheated domestic debate can turn people off from the international work because there’s sort of a lot of assumptions that come along with it when there are people who are not following what’s happening overseas as closely as those of us on this call are. We notice a difference in terminology. A lot of times Republicans or conservatives are very interested in international religious freedom. Democrats or liberals are more interested in religious minorities. Those different approach vectors sort of end at the same point, but the framing matters to folks who are not initiated into the nitty gritty of this work. So, yeah, the domestic context is an issue, a challenge. And how we talk about it is something I’d be very careful with. Again, going back to my—the foundational point is don’t politicize international work. Let’s leave our domestic debates here, have those robust conversations, but remember what’s happening overseas is literally life and death. And it’s just incomparable to what we’re discussing here at home.  OPERATOR: Great. Our next question comes from Shaarik Zafar. ZAFAR: Hi, everybody. Azza, it’s amazing to see you. Knox, really amazing to see you. Peter, I guess it’s OK to see you as well. This is Shaarik Zafar, formerly Peter’s intern at the State Department and now at Meta, where I lead our foreign policy and national security engagement. Congratulations on this amazing report. I think it’s very timely and very important. What do you think the role of the private sector should be, broadly, in supporting religious freedom? Having spent a little bit of time in the private sector now, when we talk about business and human rights it’s often what we traditionally think of as human rights. And religious freedom doesn’t always rise to the same level of importance. Is there a particular role that you’d like to see businesses here in the United States and elsewhere? THAMES: Thanks, Shaarik. And thanks for tuning in today. I feel like a radio show. I think leveraging the power and influence of the private sector outside of the human rights space is a really unexplored and an area of vast potential. Just looking at the company that you’re working for now, and the whole Metaverse and Facebook and the ability to use social media to promote—to share beliefs, to worship collectively through a digital interface, but also social media is—the problematic aspects of it, to promote hate speech, promote violence. And we’ve seen that happen in a lot of contexts where social media is used to actually abet or instigate severe instances of persecution against religious minorities. So bringing the private sector alongside as partners, trying to find ways to encourage them to walk with advocates, not out of you better do it or we’re going to sue you, but more of a commonsense approach that freedom of thought, conscience, religion and belief, all the different components of religious freedom, if they are fully respected and protected, then that’s going to be a better environment for creative thought, for businesses, for academia, for all the different components of society. And that makes a better business environment. So there could be a sort of a long-term monetary incentive that could hopefully bring these companies and institutions alongside this work. MANDAVILLE: So let me also add, briefly, so, Shaarik, I guess it’s kind of nice to see you too. Shaarik, everyone, you should all know, was the former State Department special representative to Muslim communities. One of the principal political appointees in the Office of Religion and Global Affairs that I had the honor to serve in. And what I really appreciated about the way that Shaarik did his work is that even though his mandate naturally brought him to deal with issues related to Islamophobia and anti-Muslim sentiment around the world, he always engaged that work in ways that really, I think, embodied the spirit of the recommendation that we make in our report, to make sure to do that work as part of a broader effort to champion those who are vulnerable, whether or not they happen to hold the particular religious identity that his position was focused on. And I know that the technology sector where he hangs his hat now professionally has benefitted enormously from his work. I think what I would add is just that I do think that the tech sector is particularly important here, just because social media and technology platforms, the broader phenomenon of digital hate, is really at the heart of how these dynamics play out today. And so obviously debates and questions we’re having today about the content moderation policies of social media platforms that raise enormous dilemmas that I’ve heard you, Shaarik, speak so eloquently about in public forums. But I think, again, it’s not just the naming and shaming in the sense of finding bad material and pulling it down. I know that social media platforms, of which Meta obviously holds quite a few, Twitter, have the capacity to proactively help to push forward messages of inclusivity. And so I think if there is an ethical commitment to those kinds of values on the part of these platforms, then the more of that we can get the better. We know that it’s just a matter of the business model sometimes, that the algorithm privileges messages that generate certain kinds of responses. And controversial messages tend to generate those kinds of responses. And so I think helping to counterbalance that by proactively making space at minimal cost for others kinds of messages, I think is a very valuable tool. KARAM: Can I just quickly interject that I think, to honor a little bit more Shaarik’s question, because I think he mentioned the private sector. And we honed—you zeroed in on the tech space. And the private sector is tech, plus, plus, plus. (Laughs.) So I do believe that it might be valuable to ask for a little bit more of a comparative reflection of how have the private sectors in their diversities in the United States, for instance, contributed to other human rights issues that are part of U.S. foreign policy? And maybe look at that a bit critically, and compare and contrast, before passing any particular judgement on the value-added for international religious freedom. I think it sort of behooves us to maybe want to study that a bit more, and listen to the experiences of people like Shaarik, but also other private sector actors in this space, before we sort of pass a judgement too quickly. OPERATOR: Great. Our next question comes from Razi Hashmi from the U.S. Department of State. HASHMI: Hey, Knox and Peter. It’s good to hear and see you. I am a former bag handler to Knox Thames and chai aficionado with Peter. So in terms of my question, so I work at the Department of State in the Office of International Religious Freedom, where this report is very pertinent. But I’m also a term member, so I care about these issues in multiple reasons. You had talked about—in your recommendations—about exploring common challenges for at-risk communities. And really, like, broadening the pool of people that are confronted with these issues. Now, one of the common threats in terms of things that we see is the rise of religious and ethnic nationalism. And I’d be curious to hear how you would envision approaching those kind of larger issues, that do connect with those other communities that are at risk. And then the second part of my question is engaging the youth and bringing young progressives that may not be as connected to their religious identity as maybe some other communities. So welcome your thoughts on both those. Thank you. THAMES: I would say on the first part, Razi, the work of strategic religious engagement becomes—I think, rises to the forefront when you’re dealing with these broader movements that have great relevance for religious minorities or belief minorities, whether minority communities, but not them alone. How do you understand the religious landscape of society? How do we prepare our diplomats to interpret what’s going on, not just between politicians or the leadership of a country, but the broader society that is also influencing how they make decisions, how they position themselves, the voices that are coming to the top of their inbox, so to speak. And that’s where increasing the religious IQ of our diplomats, our USAID colleagues, our service members, I think is really important. So that we can see the trend lines that are moving a country in a particular direction or not. This gets into religious and ethnic nationalism. Who are the key players? The people of great influence may not be in government. They could be spokespersons or religious leaders. How do we engage them? How do they impact U.S. foreign policy goals for human rights, but also a range of other issues? And this is where I think training becomes really important. How do we institute a training requirement for all our diplomats, aid workers, and service members so they understand this? They don’t have to get a PhD in comparative religion, but they are equipped with sort of the basic tools to understand these dynamics, and also feel comfortable doing it, that it’s not going to be a violation of the First Amendment, that this is actually a smart way to engage civil society holistically. That religious actors are part of civil society, like any other actor, and smart diplomacy would understand all the different drivers that are moving a country in a particular direction or not. MANDAVILLE: And I would just add to that—Razi, also, it’s great to have you with us today. It’s, I think, been a challenge in U.S. government engagement with religious actors to kind of move beyond an understandable focus on religious figures who tend to hold certain kinds of formal titles and roles within certain kinds of institutional hierarchies, just because the U.S. government is an institution. It’s used to dealing with entities like it, which means that we naturally gravitate towards those kinds of institutionalized spaces of religion. And they matter, but there are also—there’s a vast ecosystem of religious voices and experiences that are not captured by that institutionalized practice of religion, whether we’re talking about younger religious leaders, whether we’re talking about women as religious leaders, whether we’re talking about indigenous and traditional religions that sometimes disrupt our very concept of what constitutes religion in the first place. And I think the sort of heart of doing the kind of work that you’re asking about really relates to and exists in those kinds of spaces. And so I think finding the capacity to do that kind of work, it’s what we’ve sought to make the hallmark of the religious engagement paradigm that we’ve developed here at the United States Institute of Peace. What we call inclusive religious engagement is really the answer there, and not least of all because, harking back to that geopolitics of religion that I alluded to earlier, in so many settings those institutionalized manifestations of religions have incredibly complex relationships with state authorities and state structures themselves, which in various ways often make them an extension of that state. And, as we loop back to the point that you raised about religious nationalism, contemporary manifestations of religious nationalism are often not just about seeking to articulate a very specific relationship between a given national identify and a specific religion, but often a particular way of understanding and practicing the religion in question. It seeks to put certain kinds of parameters around what counts as an authentic expression of that specified religion. And for that reason alone, I think this immediately finds itself in the terrain of protecting freedom of religion or belief.  This is why I think these kinds of issues are an integral part of our efforts to address that very real challenge today. OPERATOR: Our next question comes from Lawrence Whitney, who writes: How do you see the dramatically changing religious landscape, especially in Western liberal democracies, toward increasing religious unaffiliation impacting the dynamics around international religious freedom? MANDAVILLE: Yeah. There was the headline about the United Kingdom after some survey work was done or since this work being a Christian-minority country; that more people are identifying as nonreligious, agnostic, or atheist than identify as Christian. And in the context of the work of international religious freedom I thought it’s interesting to compare the situation for nonbelievers in the United Kingdom that survey work was sort of greeted with a general shrug and everyone moved on. No one’s life is impacted by not believing in the Church of England, not being a member of the Church of England. There’s no social or legal ramifications for walking away from faith. But that is not the case for nonbelievers, atheists, and agnostics in many, many other countries. And in some places, they’re even labeled as terrorists for the sin or the crime of walking away from faith. So for me, it just sort of placed in direct contrast where—the space that’s been developed for a diversity of beliefs in some countries and the incredibly constricted space in many others, and the severe penalties that can fall upon people if they decide to step outside of the very narrow permissible lanes of religious activity. If they challenge that, if they do a different direction, they can be in for a world of hurt. OPERATOR: Our next question comes from Adem Carroll from Justice for All, who writes: Though not every religious leader embraces a rights-based framework, how can a focus on justice be fully integrated into the religious freedom and faith community engagement conversations rather than seeing these in the service of social order or business as usual? MANDAVILLE: It’s a great question, and I think that is one that has endlessly plagued those of us who try to keep questions of social justice at the forefront of the work that we do, understanding that rights-based frameworks have a certain cultural provenance and a background and story of their own, which means that they sometimes don’t travel well. There are any number of challenges that this faces. For those who want to find ways of having conversations about the rights of LGBTQI people in settings where there are enormous and deeply-wrenching debates going on within society about those kinds of issues, this is something that one comes up to—one comes up against very quickly. And it’s one where simply walking into that context with a copy of the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights that you then treat as a form of scripture unto itself and reading it at people and expecting, quote/unquote, “compliance” just doesn’t even allow you to start the conversation. You need to find other vocabularies. You need to find other framings. And I think that there are present and available to us in all religious traditions, including for lack of a better term the most conservative variants of those religions, there are basic concepts about the dignity and inviolability of the person that provides spaces to begin to have these conversations in ways that opens space. Contested space, difficult space to be sure, but allow you to at least begin a conversation. But we also happen to have with us in this session in the form of Azza literally, I think, one of the world’s foremost experts given her former work at the UN Population Fund, where these kinds of issues and struggles I know were front and center to things you had to deal with, Azza. So I really think you are by far the best-placed among us to answer this question. Please. KARAM: No, I—thank you. Thank you for that, Peter, but I think expertise is something that we all pool into and all benefit from. So thank you for that—for the wisdom that you’ve shared. I would say very, very quickly as an answer—before I hand over to Irina to bring us to summary and closure, I would say that some of the most critical agents of this work who—one of them—one constituency has already been named in an earlier question, which is young people—young people, some of whom are part of the far right of the religious spectrum but many of whom are actually in the counter movement. Especially when they’re willing and ready and able to work together across their different religious communities, they stand as awesome champions for one another’s religious freedom against the far right. But the other agency—actors or agents that we haven’t mentioned at all and that absolutely deserve a mention are women of faith. And we see in this work where so many of the most sensitive issues intersect into political issues—social issues in particular are intersecting this dimension of religious freedom—we see women of faith at the forefront of so much activism in this space, where they stand as champions of one another and of very specific vulnerable communities. It would, honestly, be very critical for us to honor that engagement. And I can tell you not from UNFP but from Religions for Peace’s five decades of engagement around many of these issues that it is women of faith and youth who are leading so much of this work to realize fundamental human rights and the intersectional human rights simultaneously. And ironically the COVID pandemic actually gave those kinds of movements a boost. So whereas we were complaining that we don’t see much multi-religious engagement in response to the COVID crisis, actually, when we looked at some of the incoming proposals to the multi-religious humanitarian fund at Religions for Peace, we found that it was women and faith and youth—interfaith youth groups who were doing the most remarkable work in that space. And so just to acknowledge that effort and to make sure that we don’t forget that activism. Thank you. Irina, back to you. Thank you so much. FASKIANOS: Azza, thank you very much. And Peter and Knox, this was a fantastic hour. We really appreciate you and all of the great questions and comments. I regret that we could not get to all of you, but there will be more opportunities. You know where to find our distinguished speakers and moderator, but you can follow Peter Mandaville’s work on Twitter at @PMandaville, Knox at @KnoxThames, and Azza at @Mansoura1968. We also encourage you to follow CFR’s Religion and Foreign Policy program on Twitter at @CFR_religion. And write to us at [email protected] with any questions or suggestions. Again, we will send out the link to the transcript and the video of this discussion, as well as a link to the report that we were discussing. And I just want to say our next Religion and Foreign Policy Webinar on Health-Care Equity and Accessibility Around the World will be on Tuesday, December 20, at 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time. We will send out an invitation for that. So, again, thank you all. Have a great rest of the day.
  • Human Rights
    CFR Religion and Foreign Policy Program Luncheon Panel: Human Rights Around the World
    Podcast
    Shadi Mokhtari, assistant professor at the School of International Service at American University, and Ebenezer Obadare, the Douglas Dillon senior fellow for Africa studies at CFR, discuss how different regions around the world approach safeguarding human rights. Jennifer Butler, founder in residence at Faith in Public Life, moderates. This discussion took place at the 2022 Annual Meetings, hosted by the Society of Biblical Literature and American Academy of Religion in Denver, Colorado. Learn more about CFR's Religion and Foreign Policy Program. FASKIANOS: It’s great to be back at the SBL and AAR Annual Meetings in person. We haven’t done this lunch since 2019, so we’re excited to be here. I’m Irina Faskianos, vice president for the National Program and Outreach at CFR. So thank you for being with us. This luncheon is hosted by CFR’s Religion and Foreign Policy program, which serves as a resource for faith leaders and policymakers, and offers a forum for congressional leaders, seminary heads, scholars, religion, and representatives of faith-based organizations to discuss global issues in an interfaith environment. If you’re not already a participant in our activities, we hope you will join us. Our programming includes two webinar series—a Religion and Foreign Policy Series and a Social Justice Series— roundtables, tailored briefings by subject experts, and a monthly bulletin. After the conference, we will send you an invitation to our next webinar, so look out for that. It will be on religious freedom and U.S. national security. And in the meantime, if you haven’t already, please visit us at our booth. The booth number is 127. I’m delighted to introduce our moderator who will facilitate today’s discussion—Jennifer Butler, founder in residence at Faith in Public Life. We have extensive bios in the programs at your seats, so you can look more there. I’m going to turn it over to Jennifer to introduce our panelists. Jennifer, over to you. BUTLER: Thank you. Thank you so much. (Applause.) Welcome, everyone. And a big thank you to the Council on Foreign Relations for pulling together such cutting-edge topics, such important discussions. I know we all benefit from these on a regular basis. This topic could not be more pressing today—if we’re going with the AAR theme of catastrophes—looking at the state of democracy and human rights around the world, we’re facing a downright recession in human rights, globally, and in democracy, which safeguards many of those rights. Over a quarter of the world’s population now lives in a backsliding democracy. Countries such as Brazil, now the United States by some measures, fit into that backsliding category—Hungry, Poland, Slovenia. And then, together with those living in nondemocratic regimes, they make up more than two-thirds of the world population. So two-thirds of the world population are living either in what is categorized as a backsliding democracy—hence where human rights are under threat—or in a non-democracy regime. And religion, of course, is playing a complex role in that as part of civil society, both in terms of fostering or weakening human rights. It plays an even more complicated role when it becomes a political ideology, as we see in the rise of religious nationalisms around the world, but also when religion is exploited as a tool of Western hegemony as well. And so there’s a lot of complicated dynamics that these two scholars are going to be incredible at helping us to unpack. We are very lucky to have them. And with that, I would like to introduce these astonishing professors here. Shadi Mokhtari is an assistant professor at the School of International Service at American University in Washington, DC. Her teaching and research focus is on the politics of human rights, the dynamics of political change in the Middle East, and on political Islam. And she is the author of After Abu Ghraib: Exploring Human Rights in America and in the Middle East, which was with Cambridge University Press, and that book was the co-winner of the 2010 American Political Science Association Human Rights Section Best Book Award. From 2003 to 2013, she served as editor in chief of the Muslim World and Journal of Human Rights. Her current research develops a typology of Middle Eastern experiences of the international human rights framework and is entitled, Experiencing Human Rights as ‘Mockery of Morality’, ‘Manifesting Morality,’ and ‘Moral Maze’: The Resonance of Human Rights’ Rhetorical Promise and the (Un)Persuasiveness of its Practice to Middle Eastern Populations. That is a mouthful, but a critical, critical theme for today and one we will be discussing in depth. Dr. Ebenezer Obadare is the Douglas Dillon senior fellow for Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Before joining CFR, he was a professor of sociology at the University of Kansas. He was a political reporter for The News and TEMPO magazines from 1993 to 1995, and he is the author of numerous books. Dr. Obadare’s most recent book just came out this year from University of Notre Dame Press, and it’s entitled, Pastoral Power, Clerical State: Pentecostalism, Gender, and Sexuality in Nigeria. He is the editor of the Journal of Modern African Studies and a contributing editor to Current History. He was the Ralf Dahrendorf Scholar and Ford Foundation International Scholar at the London School of Economics. And these two have so many accomplishments I will not read them all off, but they are in your bio. So our first question today, to open up this conversation, is going to be—and I think I’ll start with you, Dr. Obadare, because you’re looking straight at me, and we’ve been bantering beforehand. OBADARE: I should have not done that. (Laughter.) BUTLER: Never make eye contact, right, then you end up going first. I wanted to start off with both of you just asking, what is the current state of human rights in the area that your expertise is in? And then, we’re going to delve deeper into some very complicated questions. What is the state of human rights, and what role are religious organizations playing in this struggle? And what are the tensions between religion and human rights, broadly? OBADARE: Yeah, thank you for that. Good to be here. Thank you for attending this panel. So my work is on Africa so I’m going to speak generally about the human rights struggle in Africa. I think the first point to sort of get out is that you can’t understand the human rights struggle in Africa unless you put it within the broader context of the struggle for the integration of liberal democratic norms across the continent. So for the last three to four decades many African countries have been involved—forced in the struggle to remove the military from power in different countries, and then, consequence upon that, in a struggle to institute democratic norms in the continent. The language of human rights itself has to be inserted within the broader struggle to remove the military from power, first and foremost, but also to have liberal democratic norms be the modus operandi in different African countries. And you could say that, to a large extent, considerable progress has been made in different parts of the continent, even though—if you’ve been reading the news about the last five to six months—you also see that there’s cause for disenchantment because of the speed of coups d’état that we’ve had especially in some West African countries—Guinea, Mali, Chad, Burkina Faso, come to mind. So some of that points to the fact that some of the good things that we’ve experienced with respect to the consolidation of human rights and democratic norms, you start seeing a reversal of some of those norms especially with those military coups. And to sort of give a sense of the condition in the continent right now, from a high of about twenty-five, thirty in the mid-1990s—consequent upon the fourth wave of democratization of the continent—Freedom House now says that only eleven African countries can broadly be categorized as free. And Freedom House—I don’t know if you know about their index—they use free and fair elections, freedom of the press, property rights, different things like that as a barometer to measure the progress of different countries, on the road to democracy. The other part of your question is the role that those agents are playing in this struggle. And I think you could—it’s an extremely complex subject, where you could sort of divide that into two. One is the way in which different religious organizations are really just institutions—basically turned the mosque or the pulpit, as the case may be, into religious platforms, right. So religious agents—pastors, imams—especially when the continent was under the control of the military, they turned those platforms into political platforms. So religious agents or religious organizations of various sorts were part of the campaign to integrate human rights and liberal democratic norms on the continent. But the much more important contribution that I think religious agents or religious institutions perform was in the very philosophizing of the struggle itself—the way in which the struggle to institute human rights was turned into a demon vs. saint kind of thing, where the military was the demon and all the other forces within civil society that raged against them became the saints. So that philosophy was actually much more important than the actual work that some of them did on the pulpit or inside the mosque. And I think, to close on a maybe a more skeptical note, it’s also to point out that even though religious agents or religious institutions have been so central to the work of Britain’s liberal democratic norms and human rights on the continent; that some of the more recent patients of sexual and reproductive rights sort of call us back to the fact that while we ought to celebrate the involvement of religious agents and actors in politics. Oftentimes, when you now see some of the other things happening, especially over the last five to ten years with respect to LGBT rights, sexual rights, pregnancy, echoes of Roe v. Wade, on the continent—you sort of see a different kind of—maybe a much more conservative role for religious agents, so. I’m good to stop there. BUTLER: Interesting. Yeah, thank you for that complex picture. Dr. Mokhtari, what would you say? MOKHTARI: Yeah, so if we were to think of the big picture of human rights in the Middle East and North Africa, it is at once very dire and promising as well—with caveats, of course. So on the side of very dire conditions, repression essentially reigns in most parts of the region. You have—if we were to think of human rights in civil and political terms alone—and of course, there are social and economic rights, there’s the right to an environment—all of these are also very much compromised right now. But just on the repression level there, widespread repression, right, a lot of authoritarian regimes who ruled through repression—the very promising 2011 Arab Spring—many of those movements have kind of taken a very dark turn. Three civil wars, tremendous human toll in Syria and Yemen, and Libya as well, and then, the second wave of protests, which took place around 2019, in Algeria, Sudan, Lebanon, and Iraq—which didn’t get much coverage, unfortunately, in the West—but those are kind of this very stalemate state where we don’t know where they’re headed. But the other side of it, what is really promising, in my view, is that, there are broad segments of these societies—and of course, there’s diversity in the region—and then I really can’t speak of the Gulf region much because it’s not my area of expertise—but in many of these other contexts, the norms of the human rights project and democratic liberal norms have broadly been embraced and overlap considerably with both the grievances the aspirations of large segments of the population. And in particular, the younger generations seem to be really driving the various protest movements. They are up against a lot of structural barriers and also kind of twenty-first century divide and rule devices through the means of social media, which has been a very effective means for authoritarian regimes in the region to divide and rule in a sense—or divide and conquer, and rule. So in any case, there’s a lot I can say about these protest movements and kind of the underlying promise, and I would say, new generation of human rights activism. But I think I’ll dig deeper with some of the other questions, so I’ll leave it there. BUTLER: Good. Yeah, you’ve piqued my interest there. Maybe we could stay with you for a minute just to continue in that vein. The Middle East has been thought to be a place where there is cultural and religious resistance to human rights, but your research has really challenged that. So can you help us understand? MOKHTARI: Yeah, so what I would say is that I’ve been visiting different countries in the region for over twenty years, and inevitably I’d be in a taxi somewhere or in a situation where someone would strike a conversation. They ask me what I am there for, and I say my research relates to human rights. And as soon as I use—it’s usually not an expression that’s used internally, I had noticed, but when I bring it up—almost kind of on key—the response would be, what human rights? Human rights don’t exist. And so over the years, I have come to the conclusion that while there may be these kinds of religiously-rooted, culturally-rooted, socially—social-norm rooted rejections of specific human rights norms, it’s not really the content, by and large—I mean, the bigger picture is that, by and large, people do not object to the core emancipatory promise of the human rights project. What it is that really makes them keep a distance from it is that, the practice, as they see it around them, is so widely corrupted, and that’s what I mean by experiencing human rights as a mockery of morality. So you can look at the way Western governments—and particularly the United States—have deployed human rights in conjunction with a host of very problematic geopolitical policies and essentially their hegemony in the region, and that what human rights—“there are no human rights” retort I heard the most right after 9/11, right, and after Abu Ghraib, and Guantanamo, and all of this came out. And so, there is this de-politicization of the human rights conditions in the region that the West contributes to—I mean, in addition to kind of the commissions that take place after 9/11. There’s a host of other ways that human rights discourse becomes a discourse that’s widely corrupted in the region. The focus on just women’s rights as if attributing all the human rights ills of the region simply to backwards culture and religious practices, right, as a way to de-politicize. So in any case—I mean I could go on about this quite a bit, but this is what I think often kept—people wanted to keep a distance from that discourse. Now what I then go on to discuss is how that shifts in a lot of places after 2011, and that (un)persuasiveness of human rights. The “un” is in parentheses because it can be persuasive if it’s practiced in a way that’s considered not disingenuous, which is the way that it’s widely been experienced, not only because of the Western role and kind of the hollowness of Western rhetoric on human rights, but also the way their own authoritarian regimes are able to game the system, because of the way there’s an NGO sector that has conferences in five-star hotels and trainings, but in the end nothing changes, right. And it seems like everyone’s kind of—it’s almost a farce. There’s this discourse that promises so much and delivers so little to them, but that changes after 2011. And I don’t want to go on too long here. BUTLER: That’s Abu Ghraib. Yeah, back to Abu Ghraib? Is—(inaudible)? MOKHTARI: No, no, no. The uprisings in the Arab world, right. BUTLER: I got you. MOKHTARI: So then you have this new generation of human rights activists and social activists—social movement activists who are deploying human rights very differently than it had primarily been deployed in the past. And it’s about challenging the structures of power—economic and political—in a very—in a much more meaningful way than it had been in previous human rights discourses. Now, of course, then I talk about the moral maze, which is where the polarization comes in, the disinformation, misinformation comes in, and then there’s just endless contestation. And so the kind of moral clarity that you get at the inception of some of these protest movements gets more and more foggy. If people are interested I could elaborate on that. It’s certainly something I’m worried about in terms of what’s happening in Iran. BUTLER: Why don’t we move on to Africa for a bit, and then we’ll come back to some of the— MOKHTARI: I just want to say one last sentence on the—because I didn’t bring in the religion part in the initial answer. So I do think that political Islam is on its way out as an ideology—not religiosity within the different societies. Different societies are different places, but I think that political Islam as a project—certainly in Iran, but also in a lot of Arab contexts was quite a force to reckon with up until 2011. And then you had—I mean, I can get into kind of the key points where there’s a shift going on, but essentially at this point there are a lot of—well, overall it’s considered an experiment—an ideological experiment that’s kind of run its course. I’ll leave it there, and if we want to pick up on it— BUTLER: Wow. And that’s a big assertion and a very exciting one, so I’m sure—we will have a time of Q&A, so prepare your questions now. Dr. Obadare, similarly you’ve studied a very similar concept in African studies—the recent decolonial turn has targeted Western ideas and epistemologies, and as part of this movement some scholars have even branded the idea of human rights as a Western construct. So what’s your attitude toward this intellectual development, and do you see human rights as a Western construct? OBADARE: I certainly do not. I think this is one of those moments when we have to be very careful. I think there’s a tendency to conflate human rights with Western countries and the hypocrisy of Western countries. I could write three books on the hypocrisy of Western countries. I’m sure we all could. America has not always—I mean, the West in general has not always matched its rhetoric with its action, but that has nothing to do with human rights. Human rights—there are two components. I think we talk about rights we forget about the first word, human. Human rights are universal. They transcend race. They transcend gender. They transcend sexuality. They transcend religion. They are rights that pertain to you because you’re human. Whatever corner of the world you live in, whatever historical oppression you’ve been exposed to, no matter legitimate—how legitimate your grievances, that has nothing to do with the fact that human rights are human rights. There’s no such thing as African rights. There’s no such thing as Arab rights. To the extent that those subcategories of rights exist, they exist under the broad rubric of human rights. It is the only thing that is left to the oppressed, in different societies. So I was a journalist in Nigeria in the early 1990s, and when you live under military rule, you appreciate what it means to be denied your human rights. So I think—I mean, the idea that human right is a Western construct I think it’s absolutely—it’s ridiculous. But the other point is this, I think people also fixate on the genealogy of ideas, and then make inferences on the basis of those genealogies. So if I say, oh, women have every right to be the equal of men, nobody in this room is going to ask me, where did that come from? Is that from Mongolia? No, it just seems intuitively right. I think the problem with de-colonialist scholarship—and  there’s no time to go into it in-depth here—the problem is the failure to separate the genealogy of the concept, or even the hypocrisy of someone pushing a concept from the soundness of the concept or the principle itself. So when it comes to human rights, for me the question is, is not whether the United States or the West has been hypocritical. The question is—and this is the same question I ask about every other principle—does it tend to human flourishing? Does it allow me to make a case for equality between men and women in an African context? It does. Human rights are not the property of any specific region or culture. Human is what we should focus on. To be human is to be universal. BUTLER: Now you’re preaching, I have to say. (Laughter.) OBADARE: I’m preaching. I’m sorry. (Off mic)—right now, so. BUTLER: And I had to do like one of those kind of internal amens for a minute because this concept of human flourishing, or human dignity, is one we’ve been using a lot at Faith in Public Life as we find human rights in America questioned—or in the United States, I should say—and even voting rights under question. And it leads me to this next question. You two have already commented a bit on the connection between what’s happening in the United States, and the United States and its legacy in history, and your respective regions—I wonder what impact the faltering of American democracy in human rights has, if any, on your regions? But also, are there any other connections between the U.S. role in human rights in your regions that you wanted illuminate for the participants here? Either one can go first. MOKHTARI: Yeah, I mean, I could build on what was just said. I’m sure you’ve seen Matua’s Savage-Victim-Savior metaphor of human rights. So it’s an article from the early 2000s that really kind of illuminates the traditional—what I’ve called the East-West geography of human rights, where there’s this one-way traffic, right, and you have the savages in Matua’s formulation are non-Western states, but really kind of underlying their savage culture. And then the victim is usually women and children in those non-Western contexts, and the savior is Western actors, states, NGOs, and in his formulation, these principles—Western values. And it really does shed light on—I mean, it exists. This dynamic has been longstanding, and if you ever want to see an example of it, look at Barbara Bush’s radio address when the U.S. is entering Afghanistan and she talks about American troops saving Afghan women. I mean it’s a textbook example of Matua’s Savage-Victim-Savior. Now what happens is that increasingly people are conscious of what saviorism—a kind of formulation of human rights—and so what we then get is a brand. So when you take that, in conjunction with states like Iran, and Syria and Russia—that claim to be anti-imperialist—and Venezuela—where the state or the government is essentially saying we are against the West’s imperialism—people who see Savage-Victim-Savior then start focusing on Western hegemony in a way that then obscures the non-Western population’s experiences of suffering vis-à-vis their own governments, right. So we’re so fixated on Western imperialism—which exists and has been very problematic—that we then engage in a different kind of saviorism. What I tried to develop as a progressive form of saviorism, where—and I’ll wrap it up very quickly—the savage is Western governments, and the savior is the population and the state—excuse me, the victim is the population and the state which are conflated—and the savior is kind of sometimes this anti-imperialist leftist factions and their thought. And I think that is just as essentializing as the original form of Savage-Victim-Savior, and it essentially obscures the lived experience of these populations who sometimes will say—as in Iran—yes, we understand what the U.S. has done to us and how the U.S. has been responsible to where we are today, but at the same time our biggest battle right now is with our own regime. But that gets obscured. BUTLER: Wow. MOKHTARI: So there’s a lot there. BUTLER: Hard to believe the complexity, right? MOKHTARI: I said that it was—(laughs)— BUTLER: (Laughs.) MOKHTARI: —I tried to make that as brief as I could, but there’s a lot to say. BUTLER: No, I’m feeling it over here. I’m feeling the complexity of it all. MOKHTARI: OK. BUTLER: Dr. Obadare, you had a lot to say on this. OBADARE: I actually—I find the travels of the United States instructive for a different set of reasons. I think it’s actually something that—maybe not to be applauded, but it’s something that we should—that—so there are no perfectly democratic societies. There are democratizing societies, and different societies have achieved different levels of progress. I think there’s no way of escaping the kind of trouble that the United States is going through—a very multicultural country spread across such a wide geographic space with people divided—North and South, East Coast and West Coast. If there’s anything for me to take away, it is to tell people who look at the United States as a beacon of democracy and say, the United States remains a beacon of democracy. The fact that it’s struggling does not make it less of a beacon. Look at what it’s done right. Look at what it has done to get to where it is right now. Keep in mind that, as you go along your own journey, maybe not the same thing, but the variants of the same thing will happen to you. Why? Because democracy is work. If there is anything that we ought to blame the United States for, it is the hubris that gallivants, and—(inaudible)—and says we are a democracy, period; we’ve nailed it. I think the good thing about what has happened to us over the last five, six years is we are realizing that it—timeout like vigilance is the price of liberty—that even when you think you’ve done it all, because it’s a democracy there is always more work ahead. And I’m taking that tact because I’m leery of—either people, on the extreme right or the extreme left of the spectrum, on the extreme right people would say, I told you democracy does not work; we prefer a theocracy. And those on the extreme left who will say, I told you this thing doesn’t work; we prefer some form of collectivization. Liberal democracy works. The United States is the perfect testimony to that. The fact that it is struggling is only a confirmation that it is not perfect. It is—it does not mean that we should abandon democracy. If anything, it’s what—the messiness itself is what recommends democracy. BUTLER: Oh my gosh. That gives me great encouragement, actually. It reminds me of what John Lewis said right before he died about how democracies don’t just exist. You have to work for them. You have to struggle for them, and that’s essentially what they are. OBADARE: It’s a lot of work. BUTLER: So thanks, again, for preaching here. (Laughter.) You’re both preaching. But it’s helpful because I think in these times, we need some encouragement. And so as we look to close and kind of open things up to the audience, we’ve talked about the impact of the U.S. on your regions, but what are the implications of the struggles in your regions for the future of human rights? What lessons do you bring for the rest of the world? And what are the implications? And I know both of you want to comment on Iran, too, and you might weave that into the context of that question, and what’s happening there. MOKHTARI: I think I’m not even going to start on Iran. OK. Very briefly, I would say that it is incredible to see women leading protests and men following their chants, and that says something—I mean there’s this really extraordinary shift in norms that’s taking place, which does not mean patriarchy has been eradicated in Iran, as it has not been eradicated anywhere else. But there’s something really, really very inspirational that speaks to the human quest for justice that is very powerful coming out of Iran. Pay attention to that. There’s also a lot of, I think, what’s being talked about in kind of popular discourse in the U.S. is noise. So there’s all sorts of contentiousness amongst diaspora groups, and polarization and state-sponsored polarization, and all sorts of actors in the region who would like to see Iran weakened and—but are not necessarily committed to meaningful political change. So it’s going to be a very uphill battle, but I don’t think the population is going to give up, and I don’t think that’s the case in Iran or a lot of the other places where we’ve seen protests—particularly the second wave. It’s just covered up by the repression right now, but it will resurface when it can in other places. That’s my own personal view. And I’ll just say briefly about the contribution to human rights—just to connect it to what I said earlier—that human rights was a discourse that was dominated by, again, the kind of hollow disingenuous alienating politics and practice and discourses that encompass Savage-Victim-Savior in a sense. And it gave rise to a lot of cynicism, and I think the way that it’s being practiced by protest movements in the Middle East breathes new life to the project. It makes it something that’s much more meaningful and kind of resonates with people beyond the region, and I must say that after 2011, we saw the rise of protest movements in a lot of places beyond the region. And these are protest movements that essentially have some element of rights—demands and rights consciousness embedded in them. For years we’ve been seeing scholarship talking about the impending demise of the human rights project. There’s a book called The End of Human Rights, and a lot of the problems with human rights—which, I mean some of them are very valid critiques—but I think the sense that human rights was out the door is—it’s not, right. And it’s interesting to think of it in the sense that human rights was supposed to be something that saves the Middle East, according to the traditional kind of formulations, and it may just be that the Middle East, and broader Global South, end up saving human rights. (Laughs.) So that’s just something to think about. BUTLER: That’s beautiful. Yes, Dr. Obadare. OBADARE: So quickly, Iran—I think a couple of things about Iran. One is to put it in the wider context of similar protests that have been going on in different parts of the world over the last five, seven years. The protests against the monarchy in Eswatini, in Southern Africa; the anti-monarchy protests in Thailand led by a human rights activist—I’m blanking on some of the other protests that are going on out there now—but the Iranian struggle for women’s liberation, for human rights has to be put in that context. To appreciate that context, please pay attention to the slogan: woman life freedom. I love all those things. There’s nothing not to like in all three. What the women in Iran are saying is that they are tired of conservative religious persistent supervision of their lives. They want to have control over their bodies. You know where else they say that? In the United States in the context of Roe v. Wade. So, again, the universality of human rights. And part of what I think—I find disappointing is that there hasn’t been as much attention to the struggle in Iran and for all kinds of reasons I probably don’t want to get into here. But if we say we care about human rights and gender equality, the struggle of the people of the women of Iran that’s our struggle. That’s absolutely our struggle. And it’s one of those contexts in which the United States ought to play a leading role. I’m aware of white superiority. The problem with white superiority is that it means it verifies every attempt to intervene in the problem of another country. It’s interpreted as white superiority. No, if we believe in the universality of human rights, some forms of intervention are legitimate. There must actually be times when you back people up with muscle. I’m not saying we should back Iranian women up with muscle. I’m saying we should be as vocal and expressive enough in the United States to support what’s going on, to give the women in Iran every bit of our support. And this takes me to the question about—maybe a couple sentences about the United States itself. The most important thing—so over the last twenty, twenty-five years, the United States has given material and moral support to pro-democracy and human rights advocacy groups in Africa. We should continue to do so. But much more than the material support, what we ourselves represent is important. We cannot go abroad championing democracy if we can’t have elections that are credible. We can’t keep sending election monitors abroad to determine whether those elections are free and fair when our own elections are riddled with doubt, cynicism, and skepticism. The United States is the beacon of democracy in the world. It should not let this side down. Thank you. BUTLER: OK. Wow lots to think about, and now it’s your turn in the audience. So when you’re ready just raise your hand, and we’ll bring the mic over this way. We’ve got a question and one here on the edge. Yup. OK. I saw you next, and then here in front after that. RICHARDSON: Thanks very much to the panel. I’m Kurt Richardson. I lead an academic philanthropy called Abraham’s Bridge, Institute for Abrahamic Relations, and we work to build capacity within universities and professional lives in the Middle East—so Lebanon, Iran, and Israel. They all have an obligation to each other, if they only knew. But one of the things I think that’s extremely important about the work that is human rights, in many ways if you can be in a partner attitude, if you do have access, then you are a shared co-laborer in the constant project that is democracy and human rights formulations. It’s extremely important that a culture—a larger culture, multicultural, formulates their own document. So while things were downgrading so severely in Iran in the last decade, Rouhani fulfilled a promise of Khatami from—prior to Ahmadinejad, that a formulation—an Iranian—authentically Iranian formulation would be produced. He gathered 180 Iranian scholars. It was not produced by the government, and there is now a statement in Farsi, Arabic, and English. The divisions between Shia and Sunni are more acute than they’ve ever been. All of the fault lines are along religion, and so although I’m a Protestant, I would—I do commend, most highly, the work of Vatican II on Dignitatis Humanae on religious freedom of conscience. There is a special theological contribution born out of the religious wars of the seventeenth century that produced the basic theological foundations for liberty of conscience that produces religious liberty, not merely toleration—that’s majoritarian religious supervision of what is tolerable and what is intolerable—but rather on the basis of negative liberty. Then an individual culture needs to appropriate an educational document, which is what the U.N. statement of forty-eight really functioned as but over the generations it’s produced the human rights courts in Canada. And the big question over and over is the separation of the religious court and the civil court. But until a culture has that acumen to—they will not be able to educate their own people in human rights principles that have been contextualized, but in agreement with the universal humanity that you were describing. Thanks very much to this panel. BUTLER: Thank you for that contribution. Let’s also take a question over here so we can get a couple things on the table for the panelists to respond to. And then we got a gentleman down front, and there’s a woman way here in the back. So I can get each corner of the room, at least. Go ahead. BLOOM: Hi. Thank you so much for the panel. My name is Mia Bloom. I’m a professor at Georgia State, and I wanted to direct my question specifically to Dr. Obadare. So I do research on Boko Haram. And I work with Faktina Akelo in Abuja, and I work with Maji Peterkson in Kaduna. And one of the things that has happened with the women who were freed, rescued from Sambisa, is that the military forces turned around and did to them what Boko Haram did to them. And so when we’re talking about human rights and we understand that it’s usually clear who are the bad guys and who are the good guys, what do we do in a case like Nigeria when you have either the peacekeeping force, which isn’t really keeping peace, or you have the soldiers in the military that are the ones also abusing human rights? And so this is why the women are running back to Sambisa to their Boko husbands. OBADARE: Thank you. There is no problem there. You are describing a situation in which women are caught between male power from the point of view of Boko Haram and male power from the point of view of Nigerian soldiers. When you come for the woman, you’re screwed. There is no conflict there. The way to get out of that—and I was going to ask the gentleman who spoke earlier about the document in Farsi, which connects to this—did you read the document? What does it say about the rights of women? You can’t say you want universal right and then not respect women. How are you going to do it? You want universal right as long as it suits men. The people— RICHARDSON: It includes men and women. OBADARE: It guarantees for rights for women—the right for them to dress the way they like, to dispose—to own and dispose of property. Really? To marry whoever they want? Let’s stop kidding around. Look, the argument for culture who lapses once at a certain point you cease to make progress with the argument for culture. Look, the argument for culture, you know why it affects me and where I’m coming from? It basically says I have a right to marry as many women as I like. I own them as property. The women have no right. I love that culture, right? What about the women? Culture has to bow to the universal. It does not matter who is saying it. If a white person is saying it, the argument is still sound. The problem I think people face is because they say it’s an American that is saying it, so the argument is flawed. Remove the person saying it. Go to space and say, I want men and women to be equal. It sounds right to me. BUTLER: All right we had a question—I promised down here in the front, and then we’re going to go to the back of the room here on the right. And then I’ll watch for the other hands, if we have time after that. Trying to get everybody in. CHARNES: Thank you. I am Rabbi Joe Charnes and I have a question for Dr. Obadare. I appreciate your focus on the human dimension of human rights because, sadly, I think we often, all of us, focus on the rights part and forget that there’s a human being that those rights are supposed to inspire, and give dignity and meaning and hope, too. I often speak of the humanity of rights. And my question for you is, when you spoke of human rights transcending race and culture and gender and society and religion, there’s one area, unfortunately, that I don’t think it transcends, and I wonder, what is your—at least attempted solution—or both of your solutions to this because we’re all in the same boat. Human rights, unfortunately, don’t transcend politics. What do we do? I’m not looking for saviors, but I’m looking for some hope. OBADARE: The key—the word is not transcend. The operative word is underpin, right? If we are going to have a robust public sphere of deliberation—a deliberative democracy—where I am Muslim and I am free to speak to the rabbi, where the rabbi is free to associate with one of the nuns. It has to be predicated on mutual respect. Where does that respect come from? It means I have to see you beyond your color. I have to see you beyond your gender, beyond your location, beyond your class. I see you as a human being is the most important attribute that we all bear. The human, that’s where our dignity comes from. That’s why certain things are forbidden. That’s why we say you can’t do that to fellow human being. There’s no problem here. Human rights is the very foundation of my own conception of politics. BUTLER: Dr. Mokhtari, you want to tackle that one? MOKHTARI: Well, let me actually go back to the Iran document that was mentioned. So I think part of the problem is the conflating of—in well-intentioned kind of progressive attempts, and peace and conflict resolution type attempts—the conflating of the state and the population, right, and states that claim to speak for—and this is kind of cultural relativism more broadly, too. So I always tell my students take cultural relativism claims seriously, but do not concede them on face value because usually you have to ask, who is it that’s making this claim? And cultures are usually contested. Religious interpretations are contested internally. They’re dynamic. And so cultural relativism claims a lot of them can be responded to by looking at who it is that’s making the claim and what are their interests in that. So if you are at the helm of power and if you are a—in the case of Iran, a male-dominated regime that constructs its ideology in opposition to the West by bringing in Islam and listing Islam—that’s not where the real work needs to be done in terms of bridging cultures and norms, I think. It has to really be done—and Khatami and Rouhani played an important role. In the end, their project failed. There’s a lot to be said about them and kind of post-Islamists and attempt to have Islamic reformist movements within the state in Iran. But in the end, the population was in a very different place it seems like, normatively. There are religious segments of society that need to have that kind of engagement in terms of human rights and where they feel that it does not coincide with their religious and cultural sense of morality. Another debate we have in my human rights classes—when is shaming effective, and when do you need to have an engagement strategy? And calling in versus calling out—when is each more appropriate, and when is shaming going to backfire? And we talk about when people hold—I mean, FGM is a great example. People holding the belief that what they’re doing is in line with their moral code. And you come in and you pass judgment on them and say you are being misogynist, you’re a terrible, that’s where we should have engagement with people. But I would just caution against conflating—essentially doing what these states that claim to be anti-imperialist through their ideology want you to do, which is to conflate them and their agendas with that of their population. And in terms of sectarianism in the Middle East, a lot of that is fueled by political actors who would rather the population is focused on sectarian divisions then the grievances they have against the authoritarian regimes in power. BUTLER: Interesting. All right we had the question here in the back, and I promised back here so let’s get to the back of the room. MOTHOAGAE: Thank you. Thank you. My name is Professor Itumeleng Mothoagae from University of South Africa. I just want to ask a question—I must say, I think it’s Dr. Obadare—there’s somewhere that I actually differ with you completely—on the issue of universalism and the idea that says, look, United States is a beacon of hope. I actually completely differ with you on that. And in South Africa, for example, the land is in the hands of the minority, who happen to be white, number one. Number two, the economy is dictated upon by whites. So how do we speak of human rights in a context where the majority that live beyond poverty line are Black? So how then? Because the South African image of segregation was taken from the United States. If you compare the conditions of a Black American in the United States, you have to compare it to South Africa. That’s number one. Number two, I have also another problem is that we’ve got to look at existential experiences because it is experiences of the people that should be translating into how we ought to translate and understand the notion of human rights. Now we look at the ideas of the human rights charter. They came when a white man started killing another white man. Prior to that, the notion of human rights did not exist—slavery continued, disenfranchisement of Black people continued without any problem. But when a white man started killing another white man, then we started talking about human rights. At exactly the same time, South Africa went into an apartheid system when here in the United States in San Francisco the human rights charter was launched, where Black people were further dislocated from their homes. Now post-1994 in South Africa, we are told about these notions of human rights, which if you look at the South African Constitution—chapter one of the South African Constitution talks about the bill of human rights. Yet, the people who do not benefit from that are still the ones who did not benefit even during apartheid. Now, I need to ask you this question. Britain saw it and tempted fate together with the United States to see to it that they put sanctions on Zimbabwe because Robert Mugabe refused to abide to them, regardless of the benefits and whatever that was going to affect the people of Zimbabwe. Rwanda becomes an example, in which we can say, opposite the United States, opposite Western democracy, Rwanda gives us an alternative democracy, where the cultural system is incorporated with Western system. So I would like you to respond to that, please. Thank you. OBADARE: Thank you. There’s a lot to unpack there. I’m just going to say maybe three or four sentences because—and maybe you and I can continue over coffee or something. Rwanda is no democracy. It’s totalitarianism pretending to be a democracy. You should look beyond culture. You’re not seeing properly because of your affection, because you like Mugabe, too. I thought Mugabe was a monster right away. And if you don’t believe me, check the economic indices under Mugabe. Look at what happened to the people of Zimbabwe under Mugabe. I don’t care about Mugabe. I care about Zimbabweans. I insist that the United States is a beacon of democracy, of course. The United States is by no means perfect, and it has not always reconciled its creed with its actions, but that creed is sound. You don’t believe me? Look at Venezuelans. Look at Mexicans. Look at Paraguayans. Look at Nicaraguans. Thousands of people are dying struggling to come to the United States. I came here out of my own volition. I love the United States. I am aware of historical injustices in the United States, and I think that if you’re going to have any problem at grasping—grappling with those injustices, human rights is your friend. It’s not your enemy. The fact that an advocate for a good has been disreputable does not change their focus itself. You are mixing categories here. Human rights are universal—even in South Africa, right. So you talk about economic disparity between Black people and white people, and then I will challenge you. South Africa has been under Black rule since 1994, right. Let Black people in South Africa take possession of their own destiny. If they are going to do that, you know what’s going to help them? The language of human rights. The human in human rights. If you focus on the human in human rights, it makes you pay attention to the economy. It means you pay attention to the infrastructure. One of the things that the intelligentsia outside the United States has to stop doing is to stop holding outsiders responsible for their own problems. I saw that trope in your questions. MOKHTARI: Can I add, maybe, a couple things here? BUTLER: Yeah. MOKHTARI: I mean, I must say that I also would not completely agree with a couple of statements here. One, that the U.S. should be viewed as a beacon of democracy. Now, I would definitely accept that the U.S.’s relationship with the human rights paradigm has been complex and there have been times where it’s had a positive impact, but there’s also a lot of problems there that we don’t have time to kind of really get into. And the other is the statement that was made earlier that it doesn’t matter who it is who’s invoking human rights. I think that it does sometimes matter. It doesn’t always, but sometimes it does matter, so. There’s an image I showed my students of—and I forget the name of the U.S. congresswoman from New York who had worn a burka where she did the speech in front of Congress— OBADARE: (Off mic.) MOKHTARI: I’m sorry? OBADARE: Is it one of—(inaudible)—I think? I’m trying to jog your memory. MOKHTARI: So she wore a burka, did a speech on Afghan women and their oppression. So I showed that image—and this is in the context of the U.S. wars, right—and then an image of an Iranian woman who’s holding up a scarf she’s taken out. Both of those people are challenging a mandatory hijab in a sense, and I asked my students to think about what’s the difference, right. And I think that there is a lot of difference there because there’s a lot of baggage and civilizing mission with goes with the first picture. And there’s—it’s an active agency in the second picture that’s not there in the first. So there’s a lot of layers there. Now I do believe that you have to try to make your tent big, as big as you can, and bring in people and engage with people even though there may be some disagreements, but it does matter. I mean, there’s a very political context that can be brought in with someone invoking sympathies for human rights in this place or that place. So what is happening that I think is very interesting is increasingly there’s South-to-South human rights learning, right. So Chile is a place where there’s—if you don’t know about Chile, there’s tremendous advances taking place that incorporate social and economic rights. And I guess it also goes to the last question we had in the sense that traditionally—again, Western-driven human rights discourses have been very neoliberal, right, and have—and in South Africa you had the truth and reconciliation process that dealt with civil and political rights violations and nothing about the economic structures, right. But what’s happening I see in the Global South is a new generation of human rights activists who are very attuned to these dynamics and are changing what we mean by human rights so that it’s not in the forms that have traditionally been as problematic. Now will they be successful in making human rights a more politicized—and politicized in the sense that looks at political structures and more meaningful discourse? I don’t know because they’re also up against a lot in that project. But I think the South-to-South learning is also very interesting—and cooperation. BUTLER: Exciting. All right we have a little time for some more questions. Someone down in the front and then over here. Perhaps we could take two at a time? Yeah, right here in the front. It came up first. I’m trying to get them as they come in and go around the room. Q: Thank you very much. This has been terrific. I’m wondering—and I’m asking out of my own guilt—should we have left Afghanistan, or should we have stayed? (Laughter.) BUTLER: Big one. Big one. Since that’s a big one, let’s also take this one over here on the—right behind you in the gray sweatshirt just so we can get in as much as possible. ALEXANDER: Thanks. My name’s Laura Alexander. I’m at University of Nebraska at Omaha. I teach a course called Religion and Human Rights, so this one of those deceptively simple questions I want to know what to talk to my students about. In your work with communities on the ground when you see folks who are protesting against unjust structures who are protesting for their rights to control their—I shouldn’t say right—protesting to control their own body—do you see folks using language other than the language of rights, or of human rights? Or do you primarily see those groups really continuing to use the language of human rights so that that remains that kind of fundamental language that folks will talk about? Thanks. BUTLER: Do you want to go ahead and— MOKHTARI: Yeah, so—so I mean, again, this is why I said the Middle East has moved on from the project of political Islam. In Iran we had several cycles where people were pursuing reform from within, and that entailed making the case for rights through religious discourses, couching rights claims. And in Iran it’s somewhat unique because that’s what you had the space to do. The government—you didn’t have much more space to use secular framing. But in any case, I mean this was also happening in other Arab countries, where you try to bring in religious communities through religious framing. But I think that these societies—definitely Iran is in a different place right now, and by and large the move is more towards secular couching of rights at this point. In Iran, I’m paying careful attention to the slogans being used. I don’t see—the only reference to religion that I saw was one slogan that says, “rape in prisons, where is that in the Koran?” And it's an indictment of, obviously, this regime that claims religious morality. But beyond that people have moved on to very secular discourses, so. In terms of Afghanistan, I mean it’s such a difficult—I mean, so much of the problems in Afghanistan as in Iran it’s like Western intervention played such a critical role in the rise of the mujahideen in Afghanistan historically and kind of religious politics in Afghanistan. And so then everything that happens post-9/11, I mean, so—ultimately, I say, yes, the U.S. had to leave because it couldn’t be there forever and it’s a fight. The Afghan people and Afghan women—it’s a fight they’re going to have to create the space for, but again, I mean just as in Iran, I don’t think it’s something that outside—now outside forces can be somewhat supportive in certain ways. But ultimately, it’s a fight for the people themselves. And it’s fascinating to see Afghan women protesting, even though they are now subjected to much—I mean and replicating some of the same slogans in Iran—even though they are subjected to much more brutal repression right now, and have much less space to try to push forward a movement like this. I mean I think part of the reason Afghan women suffer from, again, what I call the double curse of Western hegemony. So, the Savage-Victim-Savior formulation and then the overcompensation for that, which obscures what people on the ground experience at the hands of, again, forces that claim to be furthering religion, right. I think if Iran goes in the direction that we hope—I hope that it does—it’ll open up space for a lot of other places in the region and maybe one day Afghanistan, too. I don’t want to say it’s just because of Iran, but I think it’ll have a positive influence, I think. BUTLER: Did you— OBADARE: Afghanistan, I think it depends on the question of why you think—what’s your sense of why we went to Afghanistan in the first instance, right. If you think we went there for the sake of oil and geopolitical reasons, maybe. If you think we actually have anything to do to help countries, another culture of different kinds of autocracy, maybe you say yes. But what I want to say is, I really don’t think we should give up on intervention. The word has attracted so much problem of late, understandably. Because the United States is not always covered itself in glory, but it will be the wrong lesson to take from that to then say we will never intervene in the affairs of other people. We will not go—there are different kinds of trouble. There are trouble that come looking for you, and you find that that you have to actually—I mean, so should we intervene in Ukraine? Of course we should. We’re doing the right thing. The people of Ukraine are repelling an odious dictatorship. The moral line for me couldn’t be clearer. We should be there. We should commit resources. We should fight it to the last. And it’s the same way I think about what we do outside the United States. There are times we’ve behaved—look, I could—I know more about the history of American misbehavior—probably more than anyone else in this room—but we shouldn’t give up on the agents of the United States to do good. This is the only country that can muster the kind of resources that it only can muster. Let me swing at your heart a little bit here. Do we all remember Malala Yousafzai, the young woman? Do you think it’s OK to help people like that go to school? Don’t you think it’s OK to repel regimes that prevent women from going to school? And you’re going to hold back because of accusations of your intervening in another country? Not all interventions are alike. There are good interventions. There are bad interventions. The West should commit to the good type. The West should renounce the bad type. BUTLER: All right. Room for two quick— MOKHTARI: Let me just say one— BUTLER: Go ahead. MOKHTARI: —I think that’s a very—there’s a lot to dissect there because who decides what’s a good intervention and what’s a bad intervention, right—(applause)—and how do we define—I mean, the intervention—I mean, are we talking about military interventions here, or are we talking about— OBADARE: No, no, no, no, there are different kinds of intervention. There are times when the United States and the West are the only agents that people suffering can call upon. Don’t pretend that you don’t know that because it’s coming next week or the week after. And it’s going to be a moral problem, and you are going to have to address it. You can’t say because you’ve gotten certain things wrong in the past that you are no longer going to try in the future. There are bad interventions, I agree with you. We should forfeit those. We should try as much as possible. But if people under tyranny call on us for help, we should give them help. That’s what the United States is about. BUTLER: So we recognize there’s some gray area there, and if we had time, we would create some more nuanced framework, right, and yet stand to the standards of like human rights is a thing we want to stand for, protect it in some way and not make it so relative that everybody’s frozen and can’t do anything, which is where we’re at. And that is a tough, tough order. We would need several hours to unpack our framework, wouldn’t we? (Laughter.) MOKHTARI: Yes. BUTLER: But we’re trying to compensate here, too, I think, for some of the extremes. OK. So we have somebody in the middle here, and somebody here. Let’s take these two really quick, and then we need to wrap. Thanks for being persistent. PROCIDA: Hello. Thank you for your comments. My name’s Rich Procida. I’m an attorney, and I studied law and international service at American University. And I’m also founding the Truth and Democracy Coalition, which works to build a pro-democracy movement in America in order to promote and defend democracy locally, nationally, and globally. So I have two questions. The first is for Dr. Obadare, and then, the second is for both of you. When we look at The Economist Democrat Index of Democracies, we see that in Africa—I’d like to say—sometimes I say the Iron Curtain runs through the heart of Africa. Yet, in South America we have mostly democracies, and the question is, why? And then, the second question is, is what does protecting, defending, promoting democracy in Ukraine, Iran, and Africa look like? BUTLER: OK. We had a second question over here. Go ahead throw it on the table, and we’ll see where we can get to. COHEN-SIMAYOF: Hi. I’m—it’s off. BUTLER: Keep going. Keep going. COHEN-SIMAYOF: OK. Is it on? (Laughs.) BUTLER: Yeah. COHEN-SIMAYOF: I’m Ophir. I’m from the AAAs Dialogue on Science, Ethics, and Religion. My question is about technology and the role that it plays in democratic backsliding or democracy building. I am twenty-four years old, a Gen Z-er, I feel like I’ve lived the majority of my adult life, especially post-COVID or during COVID, online, and I was just wondering what—whether it is in your own regions, the regions that you study, America, beyond—but what role does technology play, both as a tool of oppression as a tool for civil society, and especially in the wake of Twitter being a tool of  information sharing, but also now being a little bit of a dumpster fire? Yeah, so I wonder if you can speak to that. OBADARE: Do you want me? BUTLER: Go ahead. OBADARE: Yeah, social media, yes. I don’t know if you know what happened in Nigeria in 2020—October 2020, the End SARS protests. Most of the people who took part in the protests were just people like you—Gen Z-ers, and a little bit older. But I think—I bring it up because one of the things they did was to use the power of social media, too. So this is a very vast subject, of course, but you could sort of see social media going in one direction—being used positively to advance democratic space to support human rights struggle. But you also sort of see in the pushback by reactionary forces working for the state to use social media to sort of—I mean, think about what President Trump did with his Twitter handle. There’s a whole study there about how occupiers of state office can manipulate social media. So social media is going to be with us for the foreseeable future. How we deal with it as human beings is going to be the issue. Ukraine, before you get to Ukraine in—before you get to democracy in Ukraine, you’ve left something out. You have to keep Ukraine as a country. If Ukraine is not a country, how is it going to be democratic? The most important thing we have to do is to make sure that we help the people of Ukraine in their struggle to maintain their territorial sovereignty. Once we have that, we can then have it. As a matter of fact, one of the reasons why I think—other than the fact that its territory has been invaded by a hostile neighbor—the fact that philosophically we see eye to eye with the people of Ukraine that it’s a democracy—however flawed it is—makes it all the more incumbent on us to give support to Ukrainians. MOKHTARI: On the social media front, I mean, so there was a lot of celebrating of social media around 2011 with the Arab uprisings, and then we saw the darks side of it and the way that a lot of—particularly Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran—a lot of these governments figured out very quickly how to not only target dissidents through social media, but to manufacture and disseminate all sorts of disinformation, which then circulates as misinformation. And they have been very, very effective at that. And so it’s like the pendulum has swung, but then now that I look at Iran, I mean, I see both effects very—almost evenly. I mean, I don’t see how these protests could have—we’re now in, what, the end of the second month. I think we’re in week ten. I don’t think how it—that it would have endured without people being able to get those videos online and the world seeing what’s happening. At the same time, there’s a lot of, lot of, lot of misinformation. One of the people that sent me an image that was an iconic image of the Egyptian uprising. It’s called the Blue Bra incident. So it’s a woman that security forces are beating. She’s a protestor, and she’s got a veil so she’s religious, but you can see her blue bra. And they sent this to me as an example of the Iranian government’s moral hypocrisy, as if we needed more examples. But she doesn’t know, and I had to tell her this is actually from Egypt, not Iran, and then she stopped sending me things, so I was like, oh, this is bad. I need her to send this for my research. But in any case, both are—and that’s a somewhat benign example of misinformation, but there are more problematic ones. In terms of what intervention is helpful in Iran—I’ll just limit it to Iran quickly—this is the big question. So it used to be the U.S.—don’t say anything because then the government could shut it all down by calling this a U.S. agenda and a Western intervention, and so activists treaded so lightly, have such a confined space within which to operate. And what I think is fascinating is that a lot of—led by diaspora activists who have unfortunately, taken it a little bit to the extreme. But they have opened up the space so that you can say, Biden administration make a statement on this, and a lot of them, actually, go much farther. And it’s—I’m not quite there at all, but sanctions are OK. And even there are—there’s an interesting segment of the population outside and inside Iran who would’ve loved Trump to start a war in Iran because they saw that as the only avenue for them to be able to get rid of this regime. I mean, they couldn’t find—they couldn’t see any other way to get out of the grips of the regime. And there’s, of course, a lot of trauma, and there’s a lot of other things going on. But I think it is interesting that they’ve now opened up a space where at least statements are possible. But I think just the issue—the international spotlight on the protests in Iran and elsewhere in the region is very helpful because even the Islamic Republic of Iran really does not want to have all of this bad press that it’s getting. It does have an impact. BUTLER: Incredible. Unfortunately, we need wrap. I want to thank our audience. You all have asked incredible questions. And to Dr. Obadare and Dr. Mokhtari, it’s been inspiring and illuminating and complexifying, so thank you. (Applause.) OBADARE: Thank you.
  • Religion
    Academic Webinar: Religious Literacy in International Affairs
    Play
    Susan Hayward, associate director of the Religious Literacy and the Professions Initiative at Harvard Divinity School, leads the conversation on religious literacy in international affairs.   FASKIANOS: Welcome to the final session of the Fall 2022 CFR Academic Webinar Series. I’m Irina Faskianos, vice president of the National Program and Outreach here at CFR. Today’s discussion is on the record, and the video and transcript will be available on our website, CFR.org/Academic if you would like to share it with your classmates or colleagues. As always, CFR takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. We’re delighted to have Susan Hayward with us to discuss religious literacy in international affairs. Reverend Hayward is the associate director for the Religious Literacy and Professions Initiative at Harvard Divinity School. From 2007 to 2021, she worked for the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP), with focus on Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Columbia, and Iraq. And most recently serving as senior advisor for Religion and Inclusive Societies, and as a fellow in Religion and Public Life. During her tenure at USIP, Reverend Hayward also coordinated an initiative exploring the intersection of women, religion, conflict, and peacebuilding, partnership with the Berkley Center at Georgetown University and the World Faith Development Dialogue. And she coedited a book on the topic entitled Women, Religion and Peacebuilding: Illuminating the Unseen. Reverend Hayward has also taught at Georgetown and George Washington Universities and serves as a regular guest lecturer and trainer at the Foreign Service Institute. And she’s also a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. So, Susan, thank you very much for being with us today. Can you begin by explaining why religious literacy is so important for understanding international affairs? HAYWARD: Yeah, absolutely. Thank you, Irina. And thanks to the Council on Foreign Relations for inviting me to be a part of this webinar. And I really appreciate you and the invitation, and I appreciate all of you who have joined us today, taking time out of what I know is a busy time of year, as we hurdle towards final exams and cramming everything into these last weeks of the semester. So it’s great to be with all of you. I am going to be—in answering that broad question that Irina offered, I’m going to be drawing on my work. As Irina said, I worked at the—I work now at Harvard Divinity School’s Religion and Public Life Program. And what we seek to do here is to do here is to advance the public understanding of religion in service of a just world at peace. And we do that, in part, by working with professionals in governments and foreign policy, and in the humanitarian sector, as well as working with our students who are seeking to go into vocations in those professional spheres. And then my fourteen years with the Religion and Inclusive Societies Program at the U.S. Institute of Peace. So I’ll say a little bit more about both of those as we go along, and those experiences, but I’m also happy to answer any questions about either of those programs when we turn to the Q&A. And I should say that I’m going to be focusing as well—given that a lot of you all who are joining us today are educators yourselves or are students—I’m going to be focusing in particular on how we teach religious literacy within international affairs. So I wanted to begin with the definition of religious literacy, because this is a term that is increasingly employed as part of a rallying cry that’s based on a particular diagnosis. And the diagnosis is that there has been insufficient deep consideration of the multiple and complex dimensions of religion and culture that impact international affairs at all levels across the world. And that the result of that lack of a complex understanding of religion in this arena has been the—the hamstringing of the ability of the international system to operate in ways that are effective in bringing justice, peace, democracy, human rights, and development. So I’m going to circle back to that diagnosis in a bit. But first I want to jump to the prescription that’s offered, which is to enhance religious literacy using various resources, trainings, courses, and ways that are relevant for foreign policymakers and those working across the international system, as well as those students who are in the schools of international affairs, or other schools and planning to go into this space, into this profession. So the definition that we use here at Harvard Divinity School—and this is one that has been adopted by the American Academy of Religion, which is the scholarly guild for religious studies—defines it in this way: Religious literacy is the—entails the ability to discern and analyze the fundamental intersections of religion and social, political, and cultural life through multiple lenses. So specifically, one who is religious literate will possess a basic understanding of different religious traditions, including sort of fundamental beliefs and practices and contemporary manifestation of different religious traditions, as well as how they arose out of and continue to be shaped by particular social, historical, and cultural contexts. And the ability to discern and explore the religious dimensions of political, social, and cultural expressions across time and space. So this gets broken down in two different ways—three, according to me. But that definition focuses on two in particular. One is often referred to as the confessional approach or the substantive approach. So that’s looking at understanding different religious traditions and their manifestations in different places. That’s understanding something fundamental about the difference between Theravada Buddhism and Vajrayana Buddhism, for example. Or how Islam is practiced, and dominantly practiced in Nigeria, versus in North America, for example. The second approach is the religious studies approach. Which is sometimes also called the functional approach. So that’s the ability to be able to analyze the ways in which religions in complex ways are really intersecting with social, and political, and economic life, even if not explicitly so. But in implicit, embedded ways shaping different kinds of economic systems, social systems, and political systems, and being able to analyze and see that, and so ask particular questions and consider different kinds of policy solutions—diagnoses and solutions that can take that into account. And then finally, I add the religious engagement approach. That particularly comes out of my work when I was at USIP and working with foreign policymakers in the State Department and elsewhere. To some extent, overseas as well, those in the diplomatic sector. Which I understand is determining whether, when, and how to engage with specifically defined religious institutions, actors, and interests, including on issues related, for example, with religious freedom, in ways that are inclusive, just, strategic, and, importantly for the U.S. context, legal. So abiding by the Establishment Clause of the Constitution. Now, all three types of religious literacy defined here depend on three principles or ideas. So the first is that they understand religions as lived, as constituted by humans who are constantly interpreting and reinterpreting their religious traditions. This means that as a result they are internally diverse, sometimes very internally contradictory. They’ll have different religious interpretations with respect to particular human rights issues, particular social issues, issues related to gender, and so on and so forth. That they change over time. That that sort of complex interpretive process that is going on within religious traditions also leads to kind of larger normative changes within religious traditions over history in different temporal contexts. And that they’re culturally embedded. So as the question I was asking earlier, how is Islam, as it’s understood and practiced in Nigeria, different from how it’s understood and practiced in North America, for example. There are ways in which the particular religious interpretations and practices of a tradition are always going to be entangled with specific cultural contexts in ways that are near impossible to disentangle at times. And that means that they just manifest differently in different places. And this—these ideas of religion as lived pushes against an understanding of religions as being static or being monolithic. So that then leads us to ensure that there’s never—that it’s always going to be a problem to make sweeping claims about entire religious traditions because you’ll always find somebody or some community within those religious traditions that don’t believe or practice according to the claim that you just made about it. And that applies to situations of violent conflict and with respect to human rights, on global issues like climate and migration. This idea, the internal diversity in particular, is what is at play when you hear the phrase “Ambivalence of the Sacred” that was coined by Scott Appleby in his—in this very influential book by the same name. I’ll throw in here a quote from Scott Appleby from that book, this idea that religions are always going to show up in ambivalent or contradictory ways across different places, but also sometimes in the very same contexts. So I think we can see that, for example, in the U.S. right now, and that there’s no one, let’s say, religious position with respect to reproductive rights, for example. There’s a great deal of internal plurality and ambivalence that exists across religious traditions and interpretations within the Christian tradition and beyond about that specific issue. Moreover then, what religion is, what is considered religious, what is recognized as religious and what isn’t, and how it manifests in different contexts depends on just a complex array of intersecting factors. I’m going to come back to—that’s kind of meaty phrase just to throw out there, so I’m going to come back to that in a minute. So the second principle or idea of religious literacy that I want to highlight here is the idea of right-sizing religion. This is a phrase that Peter Mandaville used quite a bit when he was in the State Department’s Religion and Global Affairs Office under the Obama administration and has written about. So I’ll turn you to that article of his to understand more about it. But the central idea is that we don’t want to over nor underemphasize religion’s role in any given context. So just by way of a quick example, in looking at the Rohingya crisis or the ethnic cleansing of Rakhine State in Myanmar, one could not say it was all about religion, that it was about Buddhist nationalists who are anti-Muslim wanting to destroy a particular religious community. Nor could you say it had nothing to do with religion, because there were these religious dimensions that were at play in driving the violence towards the Rohingya and the larger communities’ acceptance of that violence against the Rohingya community. But if you were to overemphasize the religious roles, the religious dimensions of that crisis, then your policy solutions—you might look at religious freedom tools and resources to be able to address the situation. And that would address the situation in part, but obviously there were other economic and political factors that were at play in leading to the Rohingya crisis. And including certain economic interests with oil pipelines that were being constructed across lands that the Rohingya were living on in Rakhine state, or the political conflict that was taking place between the military and the National League of Democracy, and so on. So addressing the crisis holistically and sustainably requires that we right-size the role that religion is playing in that particular crisis. And that goes across the board, in looking at conflicts and looking at the role of religion in climate, and addressing climate collapse, and so on and so forth. We need to always neither under nor overestimate the role that religion is playing in driving some of these issues and as a solution in addressing some of these issues. OK. So with that definition and principles of religious literacy in mind, I want to go back to the diagnosis that I gave at the—that I mentioned at the top, for which religious literacy is offered as a solution. The diagnosis, if you remember, was that there’s been insufficient consideration given to the multiple and complex dimensions of religion and culture that impact international affairs. So I’m going to demonstrate what it means to apply the religious studies approach to religious literacy, or the functional approach to religious literacy, to help us understand why that might be. And remember, the religious studies approach is seeking to discern and explore the religious dimensions of political, social, and cultural expressions and understandings across time and place. So this approach, in trying to answer that question and consider that diagnosis, it would invite us to look historically at the development of the modern international legal and political systems in a particular time and place in Western Europe, during the European Enlightenment. As many of you may well know, this came about in the aftermath of the so-called confessional or religious wars. Those were largely understood to have pitted Protestants against Catholics, though it’s more complicated in reality. But broadly, that’s the story. And the modern state, on which the international system was built, sought to create a separation between religious and state authority. For the first time in European history, this separation between religious and state authority that became more rigid and enforced over time, in the belief that this was necessary in order to ensure peace and prosperity moving forward, to bring an end to these wars, and to ensure that the state would be better able to deal with the reality of increasing religious pluralism within Europe. So this was essentially the idea of secular political structures that was born in that time and place. And these secular political structures were considered to be areligious or neutral towards religion over time, again. In the process of legitimating this sort of revolutionary new model of the secular modern state, and in the process of creating this demarcated distinction that had not previously existed—at least, not a neat distinction of the secular or the political authority and the religious—the religious authority—there was an assertion as part of that ideologically legitimate and support that. There was an assertion of the secular as rational, ordered, and associated with all of the good stuff of modernity. Meanwhile, the religious was defined in counter-distinction as a threat to the secular. It was irrational, backwards, a threat to the emerging order. A not-subtle presumption in all of this is that the new modern state and the international system would serve as a bulwark against archaic, dangerous, religious, and other traditionally cultural, in particular, worldviews and practices in—it would be a bulwark against that, and a support for this neutral and considered universal international law and system—secular system. Now, I realize I’m making some, like, huge, broad historical sweeps here, given the short amount of time I have. But within that story I just told, there is a lot more complexity that one can dig into. But part of what I seek to do in offering religious literacy in international relations theory and practice to students, and to practitioners in this realm, is to help those operating in the system think through how that historically and contextually derived conception of religion and the co-constitutive conception of secularism continues to operate within and shape how we interpret and respond to global events within the system. And this occurs—I see this happening in two dominant ways. One is, first, in thinking about religion as a distinct sphere of life that can be disentangled entirely from the political, when in reality religion is deeply entangled with the political, and vice versa. And scholars like Talal Asad and Elizabeth Shakman Hurd have done really great work to show how even our understanding of the secular and secular norms and so on is shaped by Protestant Christian commitments and understandings. And saying within that, our understanding of what religion is—like, a focus on belief, for example, which has been codified in a lot of religious freedom law, as part of the international system—again, tends to emphasize Protestant Christian understandings of what religion is and how it functions. So that’s the first reason for doing that. And then second, in understanding religion to be a threat to modernity, and sometimes seeing and responding to it as such rather than taking into account its complexity, its ambivalence, the ways in which it has been a powerful force for good, and bad, and everything in between, and in ways that sometimes let the secular off the hook for ways that it has driven forms of violence, colonialism, gender injustice, global inequalities, the climate crisis, and so on. So those are the consequences of when we don’t have that religious literacy, of those potential pitfalls. And, on that second point, of the ways in which religion continues to be defined in ways that can overemphasize its negative aspect at time within the international system, I commend the work of William Cavanaugh in particular and his book, The Myth of Religious Violence to dig into that a little bit more. So what we’re seeking to do, in bringing that kind of religious literacy to even thinking about the international system and its norms and how it operates, is to raise the consciousness of what Donna Haraway calls the situatedness of the international system, the embedded agendas and assumptions that inevitably operate within it. And it invites students to be skeptical of any claims to the systems neutrality about religion, how it’s defined, and how it’s responded to. So I recognize that that approach is very deconstructionist work. It’s informed by, post-colonial critical theory, which reflects where religious studies has been for the last couple decades. But importantly, it doesn’t, nor shouldn’t ideally, lead students to what is sometimes referred to as analysis paralysis, when there’s sort of groundedness within hypercritical approaches, only looking at the complexity to a degree that it’s hard to understand how to move forward then to respond constructively to these concerns. Rather, the purpose is to ensure that they’re more conscious of these underlying embedded norms or assumptions so that they can better operate within the system in just ways, not reproducing forms of Eurocentrism, Christo-centrism, or forms of cultural harm. So the hope is that it helps students to be able to better critique the ways in in which religion and secularism is being—are being discussed, analyzed, or engaged within international affairs, and then be able to enter into those kinds of analysis, policymaking, program development, and so on, in ways that can help disrupt problematic assumptions and ensure that the work of religious literacy or religious engagement is just. So I’m just going to offer one example of how this kind of critical thinking and critical—the way of thinking complexly about religion in this space can be fruitful. And it speaks back to one of the things Irina noted about my biography, the work I had done looking at women and religion and peacebuilding. So while I was at USIP, in that program, we spent several years looking specifically and critically at forms of theory and practice, and this subfield that had emerged of religious peacebuilding. And we were looking at it through the lens of gender justice, asking how religion was being defined in the theory or engaged in the peacebuilding practice and policy in ways that unintentionally reinforced gender injustice. And what we found is that there were assumptions operating about certain authorities—often those at the top of institutions, which tended to be older, well-educated men—representing entire traditions. Assumptions made about their social and political power as well. When in reality, we knew that those of different genders, and ages, and socioeconomic locations were doing their own work of peacebuilding within these religious landscapes, and had different experiences of violence, and so different prescriptions for how to build peace. So we began to ask questions, like whose peace is being built in this field of religious peacebuilding that was emerging? And the work that USIP had been doing in this space of religious peacebuilding? Whose stories were being left out in the dominant analyses or narratives in the media about religious dimensions of certain conflicts, and what are the consequences of that? So these kinds of questions are grounded in the recognition of, again, the internal diversity, the change over time of religious traditions. And they help ensure that analysis and policy actions aren’t unintentionally reproducing forms of harm or structural violence. I’m almost done. So please do bring your questions so that we can engage in a discussion with each other. But I wanted to end by offering a couple examples of resources that I think might be helpful to both enhancing your own religious literacy but also as potential pedagogical tools in this work. So first is Religious Peacebuilding Action Guides that were produced by the U.S. Institute of Peace, in partnership with Salam Institute for Peace and Justice, and the Network for Religious and Traditional Peacemakers. There’s four guides. They’re all available for free online. Once I close down my PowerPoint, I’m going to throw the links for all of these things I’m mentioning into the chat box so you can all see it. But one of the things—I’m just going to dive in a little bit to the analysis guide, because one of the things that I think is useful in helping, again, to help us think a little bit more complexly about religion, is that it takes you through this process of thinking about the different dimensions of religion as defined here—ideas, community, institutions, symbols and practices, and spirituality. So it’s already moving beyond just an idea of religious institutions, for example. And it takes you through doing a conflict assessment, and asking the questions related to religion with respect to the drivers of the conflict and the geographic location and peacebuilding initiatives, to help you craft a peacebuilding—a religious peacebuilding initiative. I have used this framework as a means to help students think through the ambivalence of religion as it manifests in different places. So I have an example there of a question that I have sometimes used that has been fruitful in thinking about how these five different dimensions of religion have manifested in American history in ways that either have advanced forms of racialized violence and injustice or that have served as drivers of peace and justice. And there’s lots of examples across all of those dimensions of the ways in which religion has shown up in ambivalent ways in that respect. There’s also—USIP’s team has produced a lot of amazing things. So I’ll put some links to some of their other resources in there too, which includes they’re doing religious landscape mappings of conflict-affected states. They have an online course on religious engagement in peacebuilding that’s free to take. Another resource is from here, at Harvard Divinity School in the Religion in Public Life Program. And we provide a series of case studies that is for educators. It’s primarily created educators in secondary schools and in community colleges, but I think could easily be adapted and used in other kinds of four-year universities or other kinds of professional settings, where you’re doing trainings or workshops, or even just holding discussions on religious literacy. So there’s a series of kind of short, concise, but dense, case studies that are looking at different religions as they intersect with a host of issues, including peace, climate, human rights, gender issues. And it says something about that case study here—the example that I have here is the conflict in Myanmar, pre-coup, the conflicts that were occurring between religious communities, and particularly between Buddhist communities and Muslim communities. And then there’s a set of discussion questions there that really help to unearth some of those lessons about internal diversity and about the ways in which religious intersects with state policies and other kinds of power interests and agendas—political power interests and agendas. And then also, at our program, Religion and Public Life, we have a number of courses that are available online, one that’s more on the substantive religious literacy side, looking at different religious traditions through their scriptures. Another course, it’s on religion, conflict and peace, all of which are free and I’m going to throw them into the chat box in a moment. And we also have ongoing workshops for educators on religious literacy, a whole network with that. So you’re welcome to join that network if you’d like. And then finally, we have a one-year master’s of religion and public life program for people in professions—quote/unquote, “secular” professions—who want to come and think about—they’re encountering religion in various ways in their work in public health, or in their work in journalism. And so they want to come here for a year and to think deeply about that, and bring something back into their profession. And then the final thing, and then I’m going to be done, and this one is short, is the Transatlantic Policy for Religion and Diplomacy, which brings together point people from—who work on religion across different foreign ministries in North America and Europe. And their website, religionanddiplomacy.org, has a lot of really great resources that—reports on various thematic issues, but also looking at religion in situ in a number of different geographic locations. They have these strategic notes, that’s what I have the image of here, that talk about, at a particular time, what are some of the big stories related to religion and international affairs overseas. And they list a number of other religious literacy resources on their website as well. So I commend all of that to. And with that, let me stop share, throw some links into the chat box, and hear responses and questions from folks. FASKIANOS: Wonderful. Thank you for that. That was terrific. And we are going to send out—as a follow-up, we’ll send out a link to this webinar, maybe a link to your presentation, as well as the resources that you drop into the chat. So if you don’t get it here, you will have another bite at the apple, so to speak. (Gives queuing instructions.) So I’m going to go first to the written question from Meredith Coon, who’s an undergraduate student at Lewis University: What would be a solution for India to have many different religions live in peace with each other, especially since most religions share a lot of the same core values of how people should live? And how can society prevent the weaponization of religion, while still allowing broad religious freedom? HAYWARD: All right. Thank you for the question, Meredith. And one thing just to note, by way of housekeeping, I’m not sure I can actually share the links with all of the participants. So we’ll make sure that you get all of those links in that follow-up note, as Irina said. So, Meredith, I think a couple things. One, I just want to note that one of the assumptions within your question itself is that folks of different religious persuasions are constantly at conflict with one another. And of course, there is a reality of there is increasing religious tensions around the world, communal tensions of many different sorts, ethnic, and religious, and racial, and so on, across the world. And the threat to democracy and increasing authoritarianism has sometimes exacerbated those kinds of tensions. But there’s also a lot of examples presently and historically of religiously incredibly diverse communities living in ways that are harmonious, that are just, and so on. So I think it is important—there’s a lot of work that supports forms of interfaith dialogue and intra-faith dialogue. And I think that that work is—will always be important, to be able to recognize shared values and shared commitments, and in order to acknowledge and develop respect and appreciation for differences as well on different topics—again, both within religious traditions and across them. But I think that dialogue alone, frankly, is not enough. Because so often these tensions and these conflicts are rooted in structural violence and discrimination and concerns, economic issues, and political issues, and so on. And so I think part of that work, it’s not just about building relationships kind of on a horizontal level, but also about ensuring that state policies and practice, economic policies and practices, and so on, are not operating in ways that disadvantage some groups over others, on a religious side, on a gender side, on a racial side, and so on. So it’s about ensuring as well inclusive societies and a sense as well of inclusive political systems and inclusive economic systems. And doing that work in kind of integrated ways is going to be critical for ensuring that we’re able to address some of these rising forms of violations of religious freedom. Thanks again for the question. FASKIANOS: Thank you. Next question from Clemente Abrokwaa. Clemente, do you want to ask your question? Associate teaching professor of African studies at Pennsylvania State University? I’m going to give you a moment, so we can hear some voices. Q: OK. Thank you very much. Yeah, my question is I’m wondering how peacebuilding, in terms of religious literacy, how would you look at—or, how does it look at those that are termed fundamentalists? How their actions and beliefs, especially their beliefs, those of us—there are those outside who perceive them as being destructive. So then to that person, is their beliefs are good. So they fight for, just like anyone will fight for, what, a freedom fighter or something, or a religious fighter in this case. So I’m just wondering how does religious literacy perceive that in terms of peacebuilding? HAYWARD: Right. Thank you for the question, Professor Abrokwaa. I really appreciate it. So a couple things. One, first of all, with respect to—just going back, again, to the ambivalence of the sacred—recognizing that that exists. That there are particular religious ideas, commitments, groups, practices that are used in order to fuel and legitimate forms of violence. And I use violence in a capacious understanding of it, that includes both direct forms of violence but also structural and cultural forms of violence, to use the framework of Johan Galtung. And so that needs to be addressed as part of the work to build peace, is recognizing religious and nonreligious practices and ideas that are driving those forms of violence. But when it comes to religious literacy to understand that, a couple ways in which the principles apply. One is, first, not assuming that their—that that is the only or exclusive religious interpretation. And I think sometimes well-meaning folks end up reifying this idea that that is the exclusive religious interpretation or understanding when they’re—when they’re offering sometimes purely nonreligious responses to it. And what I mean by this, for example, let’s look at Iran right now. I read some analyses where it’s saying that, the Iranian authorities and the Ayatollahs who comprise the Supreme Council and so on, that they—that they define what Islamic law is. And there’s not a qualification of that. And in the meantime, the protesters are sort of defined as, like, secular, or they’re not—the idea that they could be driven by certain—their own Islamic interpretations that are just as authoritative to them, and motivating them, and shaping them is critical. So being able to recognize the internal plurality and not unintentionally reify that particular interpretation of a religious tradition as exclusive or authoritative. Rather, it’s one interpretation of a religious tradition with particular consequences that are harmful for peace. And there are multiple other interpretations of that religious tradition that are operating within that context. And then a second way that the religious literacy would apply would also look at the ways in which sometimes the diagnoses of extremist groups that are operating within a religious frame doesn’t right-size the role of religion in that. It sometimes overemphasizes the religious commitments, and drives, and so on. And so, again, we need to right-size. There are religious motivations. And we need to take those seriously. And we need to develop solutions for addressing that. And there are economic interests. And there are political interests. So there’s a whole host of factors that are motivating and inspiring and legitimating those groups. And being able to take into account that more holistic picture and ensure that your responses to it are going to be holistic. And then one final thing I want to say that’s not with respect to religious literacy as much—or, maybe it is—but it’s more just about my experience of work at USIP, is that—and it kind of goes back to the question that Meredith asked before you about religious harmony between multireligious relations and harmony, is that I sometimes finds that engaging with groups that are defining themselves and motivating themselves with a primary grounding in religion, that they’re not going to participate generally in interfaith initiatives, and so on, right? And so that’s where some of that intra-faith work can be particularly important. I saw this, for example, in Myanmar, when their—when previously the movement that was known as Ma Ba Tha, which was defined by some as a Buddhist nationalist anti-Muslim kind of Buddhist supremacist group. The folks who were most successful in being able to engage in a values-grounded conversation with members of the organization were other Buddhist monks, who were able to speak within the language of meaning and to draw attention to, like, different understandings of religious teachings or religious principles with respect to responding to minority groups, and so on. So I think that’s in particular, with addressing those groups, that’s where that intra-religious work or intra-communal work can be really critical, in addition to some of that cross-communal work. FASKIANOS: Thank you. So we’ve seen, obviously, the war in Ukraine and how Christian Orthodoxy is being—or, Greek Orthodoxy in Ukraine, and the division. Can you talk a little bit about that and how it’s playing out with Russian identity? HAYWARD: Yeah, absolutely. There’s been some really good analysis and work out there of the religious dimensions of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. So again, the sort of dominant story that you see, which reflects a reality, is that there are ways in which political and religious actors and interests are aligning on the Russian side in order to advance particular narratives and that legitimate the invasion of Ukraine that—that are about sort of fighting back against an understanding of the West as being counter to traditional and religious values. Those are some of the religious understandings. And then that concern gets linked then to the establishment of an independent or autocephalous Orthodox Church within the Ukraine context. And you see—in particular, what’s pointed to often is the relationship between Patriarch Kirill in the Russian Orthodox Church, and Putin, and the ways in which they’ve sort of reinforced each other’s narrative and offered support to it. And there’s really great analysis out there and stories that have been done about that. And that needs to be taken into account in responding to the situation and, I would say, that some of the religious literacy principles would then ask us to think about other ways in which religion is showing up within that, that go beyond the institution too. So a lot of the news stories that I’ve seen, for example, have focused exclusively on—sometimes—exclusively on the clerics within the Orthodox Church and their positions, either in support of or in opposition to the war. But in reality, on the ground there’s a lot more complexity that’s taken place, and a lot more of the ways in which different individuals and communities on both the Russia and the Ukraine side are responding to the violence, to the displacements, and so on. It paints a more complex and, I think, fascinating story, frankly. And sort of illuminates ways forward in support of peacebuilding. For example, there’s ways in which different kinds of ritual practices within Orthodoxy have served as a source of support and constancy to folks who are living in this situation of insecurity and displacement, in ways that have been helpful. There are, of course, other religious traditions that exist within both Ukraine and Russia that are operating and responding in different ways. Like, the Jewish community in Ukraine and the Catholic—the Greek Catholic Church in Ukraine. So looking at those complexities both within Orthodoxy, but there’s many different ways that Orthodox Christians are responding in both countries. There’s not one story of Orthodox Christianity and the invasion of Ukraine. But also looking at some of the religious diversity within it. And that helps to ensure, like I said, one, that we’re developing solutions that are also recognizing the ways in which religion at a very ground level is serving as a source of support, humanitarian relief, social, psychological support to people on the ground, as well as the ways in which it’s sort of manifesting ambivalently and complexly in ways that are driving some of the violence as well. And it also helps to push back against any sort of a narrative that this is about a Russian religion—on the Russian side—this is about a religious war against a secular, non-religious West or Ukraine, right? That that goes back to what I was talking about with the historical sort of contingencies that are baked into this system a little bit. And in defining it in that way, Russia’s religious and its motivations are religious, Ukraine’s not religious, that’s both not true—(laughs)—because there’s many religious folks within the Ukraine and within the West generally, but also feeds—it feeds the very narrative that Putin and Kirill are giving of a secular West that is anti-religion, that is in opposition to Russian traditional values. FASKIANOS: It seems like there needs to be some training of journalists too to have religious literacy, in the same way that we’re talking about media literacy. HAYWARD: Yeah. FASKIANOS: Probably should be introduced as well. (Laughs.) HAYWARD: Yeah, Irina, it’s funny, we did—one of my students actually did a kind of mapping and analysis of stories about the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the religious dimensions of it. And she noted that there was—for example, it was—almost always it was male clerics who were being quoted. So there was very little that was coming from other gendered perspectives and experiences on the ground, lay folks and so on. And again, for that—for that very reason it’s sort of—because we know so many policymakers and international analysis are depending on these kinds of media stories, I worry that it creates a blinder to potential opportunities for different kinds of ways of addressing needs and partners for addressing needs on the ground. FASKIANOS: Great. Thank you. I’m going to go next to Liam Wall, an undergraduate student at Loyola Marymount University: With so much diversity within religions itself, how can we avoid the analysis paralysis you mentioned and take in as many unique perspectives as possible, without letting that stand in the way of progress? How does one know that they have enough religious literacy and can now become an effective practitioner? HAYWARD: Well, OK, the bad news is that you will never have enough religious literacy. (Laughs.) This is a process, not an end. There are scholars here at Harvard who have been studying one particular sect of a particular religious tradition for their entire adult lives, and they would still say that they are students of those traditions, because they’re so complex. Because so many of these traditions are composed of a billion people or just—just 500 million people. But that means that there’s going to be an incredible diversity to explore. And so that’s the bad news. But the good news is, one, like, first take the burden off of your shoulders of having to be an expert on any one particular religious tradition, in order to be able to help to develop and enhance your own religious literacy, and those of others, and to operate in ways that reflect the principles of religious literacy, is the good news. As well as there are many different kinds of resources that you can turn to in order to understand, for example if you’re going to be working in a particular geographic location, scholarship, people you can speak to in order to begin to understand at least some of the specific manifestations and practices, and some of the disputes and diversity that exists within that particular country or geographic location across religious traditions. But, secondly, I would say, it’s almost more important than—like, the substance is important. But what’s just as important, if not more important, is understanding what kinds of questions to be asking, and to be curious about these religious questions and their intersection with the political and social. So we sometimes say that religious literacy is about developing habits of mind in how we think about these religious questions, and what kinds of questions we ask about religion. So it’s about developing that kind of a reflex to be able to kind of see what’s underneath some of the analysis that you’re seeing that might be relevant to religion or that might be advancing particularly problematic understandings of religion, or reinforcing binaries like the secular and the religious and so on. And that’s just as—just as important. So the extent to which you’re continuing to, like, hone those—that way of thinking, and those habits of mind, that will set you up well for then going into this space and being able to ask those particular questions with respect to whatever issues you’re focusing on, or whatever geographic location you’re looking at. FASKIANOS: Great. I’m going to go next to Mohamed Bilal, a postgraduate student at the Postgraduate Institute of Management in Sri Lanka. HAYWARD: Yay! FASKIANOS: Yes. How does sectarianism influence our literacy? In turn, if we are influenced by sectarianism, then would we be illiterate of the religion but literate of the sect? Thus, wouldn’t such a religious literacy perpetuate sectarianism? HAYWARD: Thank you for the question, Mohamed. It’s—I miss Sri Lanka. I have not been there in too long, and I look forward to going back at some point. So I would say sectarianism, in the sense of—so, there’s both religious sects, right? There’s the existence of different kinds of religious traditions, interpretive bodies, jurisprudential bodies in the case of Islam. And then broader, different schools or denominations. The term that’s used depends on the different religious tradition. And that reflects internal diversity. Sectarianism, with the -ism on the end of it, gets back to the same kinds of questions that I think Professor Clemente was asking with respect to fundamentalism. That’s about being sort of entrenched in an idea that your particular religious understanding and practice is the normative, authentic, and pure practice, and that all others are false in some ways. That is a devotional claim or—what I mean by a devotional claim, is that is a knowledge claim that is rooted within a particular religious commitment and understanding. And so religious literacy in this case would—again, it’s the principles of internal diversity, recognizing that different sects and different bodies of thought and practice are going to exist within religious traditions, but then also ensuring that any claim to be normative or to be orthodox by any of these different interpretive bodies is always a claim that is rooted within that religious tradition that we sometimes say is authentic. It’s authentic to those communities and what they believe. But it’s not exclusive. It’s not the only claim that exists within that religious tradition more broadly. And the concern is about—sects are fine. Different denominations, different interpretative bodies are fine and a good and sort of natural thing, given the breadth and the depth of these religious traditions. The problem is that -ism part of it, when it becomes a source of competition or even potentially violence between groups. And so that’s what needs to be interrogated and understood. FASKIANOS: So another question from John Francis, who’s the senior associate vice president for academic affairs at the University of Utah: If you were training new diplomats in other countries to be stationed in the United States, where a wide range of religious traditions thrive, how would you prepare them for dealing with such religious variation? HAYWARD: The same way I would—and thank you, again, for the question. The same way that I would with any other diplomats going to any other—the same way I do with foreign service officers at the Foreign Service Institute, who are going to work overseas. I would—I would invite them to think about their own assumptions and their own worldviews and their own understandings of what religion is, based on their own contexts that they grew up in. So how that shapes how they understand what religion is, in the ways I was speaking to before. So for example, in Protestant Christianity, we tend to emphasize belief as the sort of core principle of religious traditions. But other religious traditions might emphasize different forms of practice or community as sort of the central or principal factor. So recognizing your own situatedness and the ways in which you understand and respond to different religious traditions. I would invite those who are coming to work here to read up on the historical developments and reality of different religious communities and nonreligious communities in the U.S. and encourage them to look not just at some of the—what we call the world religions, or the major religions, but also at indigenous traditions and different practices within different immigrant communities. And I would have them look at the historical relationship between the state and different religious communities as well, including the Mormon tradition there in Utah, and how the experience of, for example, the Mormon community has shaped its own relationship with the state, with other religious communities on a whole host of issues as well. And then I would encourage—just as I was saying earlier—no diplomat going to the U.S. is going to become an expert on the religious context in the U.S., because it’s incredibly complex, just like anywhere else in the world. But to be able to have sort of a basic understanding to be able to then continue to ask the kinds of questions that are going to help to understand how any political action is taken or response to any policy issues kind of inevitably bumps up against particular religious or cultural commitments and values. FASKIANOS: Great. I’m going to take the next question from Will Carpenter, director of private equity principal investments at the Teacher Retirement System of Texas, and also taking a course at the Harvard Extension School. HAYWARD: Hey! FASKIANOS: I’m going to ask the second part of Will’s question. How will the current polarized domestic debate regarding U.S. history, which is often colored by the extremes—as a force for good only versus tainted by a foundation of injustice—impact America’s capacity to lead internationally? HAYWARD: Hmm, a lot. (Laughter.) Thank you for the question. I mean, I think the fact of polarization in the U.S. and the increasing difficulty that we’re facing in being able to have really deep conversations and frank conversations about historical experiences and perceptions of different communities, not just religiously, not just racially even, but across different—urban-rural, across socioeconomic divides, across educational divides and, of course, across political divides, and so on. I think that—I think that absolutely hampers our ability to engage within the global stage effectively. One, just because of the image that it gives to the rest of the world. So how can we—how can we have an authentic moral voice when we ourselves are having such a hard time engaging with one other in ways that reflect those values and that are grounded within those values? But also because I think get concern—with respect to religion questions in particular—I get concern about the increasing polarization and partisanization of religion in foreign policy and issues of religious freedom, and so on. Which means that we’re going to constantly have this sort of swinging back and forth then between Republican and Democratic administrations on how we understand and engage issues related to religion and foreign policy, different religious communities in particular, like Muslim communities worldwide, or on issues of religious freedom. So I think it’s incredibly critical—always has been, but is particularly right now at this historical moment—for us to be in the U.S. doing this hard work of having these conversations, and hearing, and listening to one another, and centering and being open about our values and having these conversations on that level of values. To be able to politically here in the U.S., much less overseas, to be able to work in ways that are effective. Irina, you’re muted. FASKIANOS: Thank you. (Laughs.) With that, we are at the end of our time. Thank you so much for this. This has been a really important hour of discussion. Again, we will send out the link to the webinar, as well as all the resources that you mentioned, Susan. Sorry we didn’t have the chat open so that we could focus on what you were saying and all the questions and comments that came forward. So we appreciate it. And thank you so much, again, for your time, Susan Hayward. And I just want to remind everybody that this is the last webinar of the semester, but we will be announcing the Winter/Spring Academic Webinar lineup in our Academic bulletin. And if you’re not already subscribed to that, you can email us at [email protected]. Just as a reminder, you can learn about CFR paid internships for students and fellowships for professors at CFR.org/careers. Follow @CFR_Academic on Twitter and visit CFR.org, ForeignAffairs.com, and ThinkGlobalHealth.org for research and analysis on global issues. Good luck with your exams. (Laughs.) Grading, taking them, et cetera. Wishing you all a happy Thanksgiving. And we look forward to seeing you again next semester. So, again, thank you to Susan Hayward. HAYWARD: Thank you, everybody. Take care.
  • Nuclear Weapons
    Religion and Foreign Policy Webinar: The Future of Nuclear Weapons
    Play
    Steven K. Pifer, affiliate of Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation, and Susan Brooks Thistlethwaite, professor of theology emerita and president emerita at Chicago Theological Seminary, discuss nuclear weapons, arms control reduction, and the religion community’s involvement in the field of nuclear power and peacekeeping. Maryann Cusimano Love, associate professor of international relations at Catholic University of America, moderates. Learn more about CFR's Religion and Foreign Policy Program. FASKIANOS: Thank you. Welcome to the Council on Foreign Relations Religion and Foreign Policy Webinar series. This series convenes religion and faith-based leaders in cross-denominational dialogue on the intersection between religion and international relations. I’m Irina Faskianos, vice president of the National Program and Outreach here at CFR. As a reminder, this webinar is on the record. The audio, video, and transcript will be made available on CFR’s website, CFR.org, and on the iTunes podcast channel, Religion and Foreign Policy. As always, CFR takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. We are delighted to have Maryann Cusimano Love with us to moderate today’s discussion on the future of nuclear weapons. Dr. Love is a tenured associate professor of international relations at the Catholic University of America in Washington, DC She serves the Holy See mission to the United Nations on nuclear arms issues, where she participated in the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty review conference in 2022, and in the negotiations for the treaty to prohibit nuclear weapons. She serves on the boards of the Arms Control Association, Pope Francis’s new Technologies for Peace Taskforce, the board of the Catholic Peacebuilding Network, and previously served as a fellow at the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom. And she is a New York Times bestselling author. Her recent books including Global Issues Beyond Sovereignty. So, Dr. Love, thank you very much for doing this. I’m going to turn it over to you to introduce our distinguished panel. LOVE: Thank you, Irina. And thank you for hosting this, at this critical time when we have nuclear weapons threats in the current war between Russia and Ukraine. Obviously, that’s the downside of the nuclear danger we face. But perhaps the opportunity in this moment of challenge is increased attention to nuclear weapons issues. I’m going to include the bios in our questions so we can get right to the heart of our discussion. And I’m going to first ask Ambassador Steven Pifer, you served as U.S. ambassador to Ukraine during kind of a much happier period of relations, in the aftermath of the Cold War, when there were a number of really pivotal arms control and disarmament agreements made during that time. For the first round of questions, I just want to help set some context. So can you tell us a bit about what the gains were in reducing and safeguarding nuclear arms at that time? As well as some of the challenges that nuclear—tactical nuclear weapons were kind of left outside of those agreements. How are we feeling the impact of those agreements today, both positively and negatively? PIFER: Yeah. Well, I think if you look at the end of the 1980s and the early 1990s, that’s what one would call the golden age of arms control, particularly in the nuclear area. So for example, in 1987 you had the agreement between Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev to eliminate all land-based intermediate-range missiles in the U.S. and Soviet arsenals. Big step. In 1991, you had the first Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START). That actually entailed significant reductions in both U.S. and Soviet strategic offensive forces, the long-range systems. You also then had agreement that, in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union, that there would only be one nuclear weapon state in that space. That would be Russia. And START I really then set the basis for the current treaty that’s now in force, the New Strategic Arms Reductions Treaty, which entailed even further reductions. In addition to formal agreements, you also had unilateral steps. In 1991, the Presidential Nuclear Initiatives by George H.W. Bush and Mikhail Gorbachev, and then by Boris Yeltsin. And they eliminated ten to twenty thousand U.S. and Soviet nuclear weapons. And with President Bush, we basically—all the nuclear weapons in the U.S. Army’s inventory were retired, and all the nuclear weapons in the U.S. Navy inventory, except for strategic ballistic missiles, were retired. And you had very large reductions on the Soviet and Russian side. So the combination of these measures, arms control and unilateral steps, was in 1990 you had about sixty thousand nuclear weapons in the world, most in the U.S. and Soviet inventories. Today it’s about thirteen thousand. Now, that’s still way too many. But it’s important to remember that progress has been made. Now, I think there was one different story in the 1990s. And that was the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances. That was a document in which Russia, along with the United States and Britain, committed to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty, its territorial integrity, and its independence, and committed not to use force, or threaten to use force, against Ukraine. And that was really a key element in getting Ukraine—which at that time had the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal on its territory—to get Ukraine to agree to give up those weapons. Unfortunately, Russia shredded those commitments with the seizure of Crimea in 2014 and then, of course, with its new invasion that began in February of this year. And so I don’t see that document—it really can’t be revived. And I worry that what the Russians have done, though, is they’ve done broader damage in the nonproliferation world, because security assurances were one part of that toolbox for trying to dissuade countries from acquiring nuclear weapons. And my guess is the Ukrainian experience is going to be one that other countries will look at. And those security assurances may not be as useful as they might have been. LOVE: So kind of a sobering assessment, both positive but some real challenges today. Susan, I wonder, in your illustrious career as a scholar at the Chicago Theological Seminary, as well as a religious advocate and one of the founders of Faith in Public Life, in your judgement how did religious actors impact this progress Steven’s just told us about in nuclear weapon, arms control, and disarmament? And is that activism—is that impact continuing today? THISTLETHWAITE: Thank you. I want to go back even further than that. One of my earliest memories as a child is walking with my mother, marching with my mother, in New York in a Ban the Bomb March. And the atmospheric testing was a big deal for activists in that very early period. Albert Schweitzer, a theologian as well as a Nobel Prize Peace winner, Pope Pius XII came out strongly against atmospheric nuclear testing. Albert Schweitzer was crucial in supporting these marches. And we got—and I think the tattered fabric that we have of the treaties and the successes and near-misses of the history of nuclear weapons—we got the Partial Test Ban Treaty. We got finally the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, and so forth. Now, these have been around for a while. And taking account of that in an age where you’ve got, in fact, one national actually still testing nuclear weapons. I want to hook onto Steven’s Reagan assessment. Early on in the Reagan administration there was anti-Soviet rhetoric left over from the campaign, nuclear strength. And this, of course, evolved. But a significant faith moment in that period, and I think in response to some of this, was the American Catholic Bishops’s significant letter, “The Challenge of Peace: God’s Promise and Our Response.” This is an important moment in faith response to and opposition to nuclear weapons. They used just war theory, and very effectively laid out how you cannot use nuclear weapons according to just war theory. It's an excellent letter, and it built momentum in terms of the Central Conference of American Rabbis, Protestant denominations supported it, other faith groups—Buddhists, Soka Gakkai. And the movement accelerated in the 1980s to reject the development, the trade, the use of nuclear weapons. The 1980s were a moment for this. And then, as Steven pointed out, you’ve also got a negotiation then with the Russians. It was a good moment. And I think the religious communities helped enormously in supporting that. Nineties was a decline, actually, in anti-nuclear protest. But in 2000, there was the Joint Nuclear Reduction Disarmament Statement that was issued in Washington, DC And this is an interfaith movement, interfaith statement. And Dr. Siddiqui of the Islamic Society of North America said, and I was at the announcement of this, “We must say to ourselves first, and then to the world, that we want a total and universal ban on the possession, production of nuclear weapons.” And he supported this argument with Islamic thought. Now, these faith communities’ denunciation of nuclear weapons were not just statements. There’s also activism, there’s education. I want to recommend to those who were on the call, Religions for Peace have an excellent collection of educational materials for your religious communities. And then, as was mentioned, the United Nations Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons—strong religious community’s activism on pushing forward that treaty. And the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, ICAN, has a lot of good material on that. So from the Quakers to the Catholic Church, there was strong faith support, and is strong faith support, for this treaty. I’m going to pause there, but we have a waxing and waning of success and drawing back in terms of opposition to nuclear weapons. And we have the same kind of waxing and waning within faith communities. I would say this is a really good time to be waxing in the faith communities and stepping it up. LOVE: So you both described kind of the golden era for arms control and disarmament, both on the activist, the religious community side, and the government side. Of course, today we are not in that golden era. (Laughs.) Steven, can I ask you to tell us a little bit about what our avenues for de-escalation are today? How close are we to nuclear weapons use, we know that Putin has made some threats, whether intentionally or by accident? And what do you propose be done to de-escalate the current nuclear danger? PIFER: Yeah. I think Vladimir Putin has certainly highlighted the nuclear risk with the threats that we’ve seen going back to February 28, when he put his—or, he said he put his nuclear forces on alert. Although, happily, the Pentagon says they’ve seen no change in Russian nuclear posture. I think it’s important to recognize with Putin, that Putin does not want to a nuclear war. What he does want, though, is to use that threat to try to persuade Ukraine to cave into his demands, or to persuade the West to cut off support for Ukraine. And there are very real reasons why, at the end of the day, I don’t think Putin would use a nuclear weapon. First of all, it would not change the Ukrainians’ determination to resist. They’ve seen what losing to Russia means. Second, thus far the global south—including China and India—have largely stayed on the sidelines. I think the global south would turn against Russia if they were to introduce nuclear weapons. And we saw that President Xi of China last week basically expressing concern about Russian nuclear threats. And also, the West has said there would be serious consequences. So I think there are real reasons why the Russians would not carry out that nuclear threat. And it’s interesting that both two weeks ago President Putin himself, and then last week in a statement put out by the Russian foreign ministry, they seem to be trying to de-escalate the nuclear rhetoric. But I think we have to face the fact that as long as nuclear weapons exist, and as long as we depend on nuclear deterrence, there’s going to be risk. Now, let me say, nuclear deterrence, I believe, likely kept the United States and the Soviet Union from going to war in the 1960s, 1970s, and early 1980s. It’s hard to see in history two—cases where you have two countries that were so opposed in political, ideological, military, and economic terms, and war didn’t result. And so nuclear deterrence probably kept the peace. But let me put a big asterisk on that. There were several points where nuclear deterrence came close to failing, either due to human miscalculation or mechanical failure. Just think what would have happened had we made different decisions, had President Kennedy made different decisions in the Cuban Missile Crisis. For example, a recommendation was made to him to launch attacks and engage the island of Cuba. We did not know then in 1962, we only learned in 1992, that the commander of Soviet forces on the island had tactical nuclear weapons and had already been given authority to use them against invading American forces. There have also been a number of cases where mechanical breakdowns almost led to miscalculation. And so a breakdown of nuclear deterrence could be catastrophic. And by “catastrophic,” we’re talking about tens of millions dead. So, I look at nuclear deterrence, and it worked, but a few times we got lucky. And if we’re going to rely on nuclear deterrence forever, we then have to be making the bet that we’re always going to be lucky. And I’m not sure that’s a good bet to make. That’s why I’m a member of Global Zero. I would like to see the verifiable elimination of all nuclear weapons, although I think it’s going to be very, very hard to get there. And how we do that is going to be a combination of arms control measures. It’ll be a combination of steps to strengthen norms against nuclear use and nuclear threats. And it will also be real hard diplomatic work to address those concerns that lead states to acquire nuclear weapons because they see that in their security interest. And it’s going to be a long, complex, step-by-step process. But I don’t see any alternative for us to do that, other than to engage on that process. Unfortunately, now because of, in particular, the war between Russia and Ukraine, these are not the best circumstances. But at some point, we need to get down to that because, as I said, while nuclear deterrence may be an acceptable strategy now, at some point I think we need to replace it with something more durable. LOVE: So being lucky is not a good strategy going forward. (Laughs.) And you raise a good point, how close we came during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Many do not realize that actually a commander in a Soviet sub saved us from a nuclear exchange during that conflict. But, Susan, I wonder if you can tell us a little bit more of this issue of de-escalating. We tend to think of religious actors as helping to de-escalate as being against nuclear weapons use and possession, as you mentioned in your previous remarks. But not all religious actors oppose nuclear weapons. Stanford University, where Steven is today, put out a recent book detailing the Russian Orthodox Church’s support for nuclear weapons. I wonder if you could tell us a bit about within the U.S. religious context the groups that actually favor increasing the size of the arsenals, reliance on the arsenals, and modernization of the arsenals. Including some of those who are more apocalyptically oriented, or end-times oriented religious actors. THISTLETHWAITE: Yeah. I taught a seminar in Israel and Palestine for many years from CTS. And every year we’d drive past Tel Megiddo. So apocalypticism, Armageddon, it’s a big topic. But for the purposes of this call, I want to narrow it to the idea of the great battle, OK? This is the great battle that’s supposed to take place between the forces of God and the very sinful on earth. And it’s a conflagration. It’s the final resolution. And symbolically speaking, that’s really attractive. And it’s played out, and increasingly being played out with—and I’ll be frank—with the political recruitment of right-wing Evangelicals. They hold this theology and are attracted—attracted and attractive—to the great battle. Today is Election Day. And I want to read to you what the Chaffee County Clerk has said about Election Day, here in Colorado. “What fresh hell is today going to bring?” So this language of the great battle, of the sinners, of heaven and hell, this has entered into our politics. And you’ve got the rank and file who are responsive to this language. It resonates with their reading of the Book of Revelation in Christian context, though Armageddon is not only particularly to Christians. But it is right now, today, playing out in our politics, that there is a great battle. And this is not symbolic. Now, this is the base, OK? I believe fully that political leadership is cynically promoting the language of the great battle. And what is the decisive—this is Hal Lindsey from the 1970s, The Late Great Planet Earth. Nuclear weapons represent the consummate win in terms of the great battle. That’s been going on in Christian conservative thinking for quite a while. So therefore, you promote development, manufacture, and production of nuclear weapons so that you are prepared for the great battle. But that’s within the leadership. And nuclear weapons are very emotional. They’re very emotional issue in regard to this. I do not believe that this leadership plans to use nuclear weapons. They function as a chip in the political arena. But you have a lot of nuclear weapons, you’re going to have a lot of nuclear rhetoric. Other countries read that, and as Steven is rightly pointing out, you can’t count on being lucky all the time. This is part of a political rhetoric of hyper-masculinity, carrying the biggest stick of all. And I think at the end of the day, symbolically speaking, we have a great challenge, those of us who are in the peace movement, because peace is related to weakness all the time. And war and weapons are related to strength. I’ve spent my life on this issue, and I have never, ever been able to crack this frame of weakness and strength, peace is weak, war is strength, weapons are strength. And yet this religious churn of the great battle, that you brought up in your question, what can be done to de-escalate the great battle? You’ve got to also get to a symbolic level in relationship if we’re going to move forward, and not see the promotion of nuclear weapons as strength but in fact as weakness. And if there’s a weakness argument to be made in relationship to the corruption of the Russian military, which then in turn you use the rhetoric of nuclear weapons because you’re weak. So there are an increasing number of Christian Evangelicals. I was at a press conference with a bunch of Christian Evangelicals who are horrified by the recruitment of their faith into this kind of political great battle. And as peace activists, you know the best way to bring about a de-escalation is for insiders to do it. So we have to support these Protestant Evangelicals who are trying to de-escalate the great battle rhetoric. And it is difficult. LOVE: So support those who are de-escalating. We are going to just go to our last question, to make sure we have room for time. And we’ve talked about some of the challenges that we’ve faced, but what gives you hope in this moment? And what are your recommendations for the future? I wonder, Steven, if you can start us out. What gives you hope? And what are your recommendations for the future, including engagement with the next generation? PIFER: Well, on arms control, it’s probably not the best time to be hopeful. I mean, one of the problems that you have now is mistrust between Washington and Moscow is probably at its highest level since the Cold War ended back in the end of the 1980s-1990. Now, there is a little bit of good news here, is both in Washington and in Moscow, and both President Biden and President Putin, has said that they remain interested in getting to some kind of dialogue on controlling nuclear weapons. And I would actually argue that’s a very sensible step. I think arms control now between the United States and Russia is more important than it was, say, back in 2010, when we signed the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, because relations are more difficult now. It’s in both sides’ interest. And the good news, both sides seem to recognize that while we’re going to have a relationship that’s going to be largely adversarial, there are mutual interests in having some constraints on that competition. So I think it would be smart to get back to this dialogue as soon as we can, but probably begin with baby steps. The first step, I would argue, is we now have the one remaining agreement that limits U.S. and Russian nuclear forces, the New START treaty. It expires in February of 2026. It’s not too early to be thinking now about what kind of limits you maintain on strategic offensive forces beyond 2026. We want to continue that. And we want to find a way—the Russians have developed in the last seven or eight years a couple of news kinds of strategic weapons which are not directly captured by the treaty, even though they perform basically like strategic weapons. So how can you bring those into the treaty? I think that’s the first step. The second step is, could we actually get to a negotiation that would cover all American and Russian nuclear weapons? Not just deployed strategic weapons, which is what New START limits, but also get reserved strategic weapons and nonstrategic weapons that are also referred to as tactical nuclear weapons. That, to my mind, an agreement that covers all U.S. and Russian nuclear weapons, would be the next logical step after the New START treaty. But having said that, I think in the last year getting that kind of negotiation has become harder. And that’s because of the Russians and, quite frankly, putting on my Ukraine hat—or, Ukraine-watching hat, I’m happy to see this—the Russian military at the conventional level has not performed well. Where that complicates nuclear arms negotiations, it may now make the Russians think that they have to rely more on nonstrategic nuclear weapons to make up for the deficiencies that this war has revealed in their conventional forces. And that could make it more difficult to get nonstrategic nuclear weapons on the table. And that was already going to be hard simply because there was a huge disparity in numbers between the United States and Russia. Russia has probably eighteen hundred to two thousand nonstrategic nuclear weapons, whereas the United States only has a couple of hundred gravity bombs that would fall into that category. Now, the offsetting American advantage is the United States tends to have more reserve strategic weapons. But could you get to a tradeoff between those categories? Perhaps, but that’s going to be hard. Another question which complicates things is what do you do about China? Because for the last fifty years, arms control—nuclear arms control—has largely been a U.S.-Soviet—a U.S.-Russian enterprise. And to a while we could really ignore China when China, like Britain and France, only had about three hundred nuclear weapons. But the projection is that the Chinese now are going to build up. We’ve seen these questions about new missile silos the Chinese are building. No one has a good idea of what’s going to be in them. The Chinese, I think, do themselves no favor by not being transparent, because they only accelerate concerns. I think it makes people concerned here, and you may even begin to see pressures in the United States where people are saying, well, the 1,550 deployed strategic weapons that the United States is allowed under the New START treaty, those are not enough because of China. I think that that’s a very simple and an incorrect assessment, but you may begin to see some of those pressures. So that’s another challenge, is how do you get some kind of a dialogue going between Washington and Beijing that can make this a bit more transparent and perhaps then get into a dialogue that addresses mutual concerns, and things like nuclear weapons levels and related issues? I think there’s also one area, in addition to sort of this formal arms control—and this is an area where I think the religious community in the West can help. And it’s a suggestion that the late Michael Krepon made about a year and a half ago. Which he said, in addition to formal arms control, look, it’s been almost eighty years since a nuclear weapon was used in anger. I mean, the U.S. weapons used against Hiroshima and Nagasaki. And he says, if you exclude North Korea, it’s now been almost twenty-five years since anybody has done a nuclear test. So can we find ways to sort of really make these norms, establish a norm? And he said, let’s aim for 2045, the hundredth anniversary of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Can we get there with a nuclear weapon not being used in anger? Can we get there, at that time it would be close to fifty years, of no nuclear testing? Are there ways to sort of make those international norms really take hold? Make them durable and universally accepted, in a way that could underpin other formal negotiations? Now, just briefly on the next generation, I find it a little bit frustrating at times that I think this generation seems to be less mindful of nuclear weapons and nuclear risks. And I think that probably was a result of the progress that was made back in the late 1980s and the early 1990s. And but now we have maybe less general knowledge about this, I have had the chance in the last five or six years to engage with and talk to sort of younger Americans, Europeans, Russians, and Chinese, who are becoming expert on this. They understand the challenges. And they’re beginning to think in creative ways. So I do think that there are people out there in that next generation who appreciate, understand this kind of threat, which is potentially an existential threat for us all. Maybe they can bring some creativity and some innovation and some new ideas to bear that my generation failed to find. LOVE: So you lay out both some official channels ways to move forward, as well as some societal, religious actors, younger folks. How about you, Susan? What gives you hope? What recommendations do you have going forward? THISTLETHWAITE: Well, I can connect directly to what Steve was saying. The fact that a nuclear weapon has not been used since 1945 is the greatest success of the peace movement ever. And it’s also the greatest success of the diplomatic community. But there is a—(laughs)—a waxing of knowledge of this. When I was a kid, we hid under our desks because we were going to have to hide from the bomb. Today kids hide in closets because the real threat of being killed in school, and they are killed in school, is our out-of-control gun culture. Nuclear weapons are down the list. You’ve got Black Lives Matter. African Americans are being killed with impunity. And the largest demonstrations around the world, that rival pictures of anti-nuclear demonstrations. The largest demonstrations the world has ever had were after George Floyd. Climate change. You ask my grandchildren, that’s top of the list. Climate change and its danger is more real and more immediate. So you’ve got the immediacy of being killed by guns, which is real. The immediacy of abrupt and violent climate change. And once again, the east coast of Florida is battening down the hatches. So we’ve got multiple crises that are really engaging the younger generation. And I think from that side, we’re not going to change that. We have to try to make a case for anti-nuclear work that fits with their concerns. That does not replace them, because it’s—you can’t say to a kid—I mean, I’ve talked to children who are traumatized months later after an active shooter drill. And where I volunteer in Colorado is Mom’s Demand Gun Sense. That’s what I do. I am not these days an anti-nuclear activist. I’m trying to get the guns. But my last couple of things is if you look at the religious arguments against nuclear weapons, Interfaith Just Peacemaking, the book I edited, with Christian and Islamic communities coming together on practices of peace. The doctrine of creation was the one that was most—it has been most commonly used to oppose the production, stockpiling, use of nuclear weapons. So today I think the better religious category is temptation, because the so-called tactical nuclear weapons, they are tempting. You can see it in political rhetoric. What’s the use of having these giant weapons and you can’t use them? So the misnomer of tactical nuclear weapon that it’s a smaller yield is just baloney. But it’s invasive. It’s tempting. And finally, I’d like to say for those who are on the call, that a practical step we can take moving forward with religious communities is to support the bill restricting the first use of nuclear weapons by a U.S. president. It’s the Markey bill. This is the Lieu bill. And this must be done because we have seen that there are actors in the presidential administration who do not respect the history or the norms that Steven is talking about. The disrespect of this, widespread amongst certain political actors, and not just rhetorically. I don’t think disrespecting the norms is just rhetorical. So I think if you want to do one thing, it’s going to come up again and we need to support that bill. Because the U.S. president should not be able to launch a first strike. LOVE: OK. We hear both governmental channels and nongovernmental channels. So that’s good, you both gave us plenty of room to run and to invite others to the conversation and to action. I think we’re going to hear now some questions from our audience. OPERATOR: Thank you. (Gives queuing instructions.) Our first question comes from Anna Ikeda from the Soka Gakkai International Office for UN Affairs. She writes: In today's context, in addition to supporting those who work on de-escalation, what opportunities and areas of collaboration do you see for religious communities’ activism and mobilization for nuclear disarmament and risk reduction? LOVE: I think that one has Susan’s name on it. So as she’s preparing, I’ll just say the latter part that she mentioned of risk reduction, in the negotiations for the NPT Review Conference this summer there was some pushback to the U.S. advocacy for nuclear risk reduction, that this was a way to draw attention away from the fact that there was not much movement on nuclear disarmament. But of course we see, with the recent events in Ukraine, that we need to be able to do both things at the same time—nuclear risk reduction, as well as the movement for deeper disarmament. But, Susan, you want to weigh in that? Opportunities for collaboration among religious communities. THISTLETHWAITE: Well, I think an opportunity for collaboration amongst religious communities is not to go in a single track relative to nuclear weapons. Military spending, spending on nuclear weapons, is expensive. It takes money away from these urgent concerns that we have in terms of climate change, in terms of racial and gender justice. And so I think we need to be more complex in the way that we do our activism, to begin to join these communities and say: When we reduce the research, production, development, et cetera, on nuclear weapons, we free money that can work on these other issues. And I think that it is the age of being able to multitask in our religious activism. And we cannot—we cannot reduce this activism—and I don’t want to disparage the work we’ve done in the past. I’ve done a lot of it. (Laughs.) But I think that today if we want to recognize the multiple crises that we’re facing, how does our work—our religious activism in relationship to anti-nuclear—support and engage anti-racism, climate catastrophe, toxic masculinity in terms of violence against women? So let’s be more complex in how we do this. Frankly, I see this happening. I mean, I’m very engaged in the work of Faith in Public Life. And we no longer stick in one silo. We have to multitask in this regard. LOVE: So knowing the interdependencies of issue areas. Go ahead, Steven. PIFER: Yeah. I think that the religious community in the West has a voice to be expressed and can apply pressure. One thing, and this, I guess, reflects my time spent in the government and having been, in the 1980s, on the receiving end of some of that pressure during the nuclear freeze movement, is that—I guess the question is, how do we find a way to build a comparable religious movement in Russia? Because as you said, you have a Russian Orthodox Church where the patriarch goes out and blesses nuclear weapons. And that’s one of the things I think—how do we get the same sorts of pressures, which I think should be functioning in democratic societies, functioning also on the other side? And I’ve never been able to figure out an answer to that challenge. LOVE: That’s challenging in countries that don’t have religious freedom to have that space for civil society and religious actors to function. But you have some more questions for us. OPERATOR: We do. Our next question comes from Rebecca Blachly from the Episcopal Church. Who writes: What are the ways we can address the risk of nonstate actors using nuclear weapons? I don’t know that international norms will constrain nonstate actors in a way that might work. She also asks: Are any investments in maintaining nuclear arsenal warranted, to ensure they are maintained safely? LOVE: So, again, it goes to the question of nuclear safety and risk reduction. Do you want to go first on this one, Steven? PIFER: Sure. No, I think we do have to pay attention to the risk of nonstate actors, although we should also understand it’s very hard for a nonstate actor to get a nuclear weapon. I came back from an assignment at Embassy of London back to Washington in 1993, in the aftermath of the breakup of the Soviet Union. And there was a lot of concern about loose nukes. In the chaos of the collapse of the Soviet Union, could the Soviet military, in fact, keep track of all the tens of thousands of nuclear weapons it had? And it turned out actually, they did. They were able to keep track. There’s no serious report of a nuclear weapon ever having disappeared. And my guess is, had that happened we would have seen evidence in the form of a nuclear explosion somewhere. And so for a non-state actor, they have to acquire a nuclear weapon. The good news, I think nuclear weapon states are pretty careful about protecting those weapons. And getting the highly enriched uranium or plutonium for a weapon is also something that nonstate actors really don’t have in their means. Now, I guess the concern I would have is, what if a state actor—say, like, North Korea—were to provide nuclear material? And I took part in a Brookings study about twelve years ago. And the recommendation we had on that, and I think the United States has come fairly close to this, is basically making the point that were a nonstate actor to use a nuclear weapon, the United States would respond to the state actor that provided that nuclear material as if that state actor had, in fact, conducted the nuclear attack. So the way it would be putting out a warning to state actors is: You need to control your nuclear materials. If you give it to a nonstate actor who then uses it, you could find yourself in fact on the receiving end of the retaliation. So that was sort of one way to try to come to grips with this problem. Of course, there have to be also steps then to make sure that you control nuclear materials. That’s why, particularly as more countries may become interested in nuclear power as they’re trying to move away from carbon-based energy, we have to ensure that there’s controlled enrichment facilities. I mean, the enrichment problem is very simple. And we see it in the case of concerns about Iran. Is you can use an enrichment facility to enrich highly enriched—or, I’m sorry—to enrich uranium to, say, 3.5 to 4 percent of U-235, part of uranium. And that’s perfectly useful for a power plant for nuclear fuel for a nuclear reactor. However, that same facility can keep on enriching. And once you get to, say, 90 percent enrichment levels, you have bomb-grade materials. So how do you control enrichment facilities? And likewise, to the extent that there are an increase in the number of nuclear power plants, how do you control the waste that comes out and control reprocessing, which would allow the possibility for countries to extract weapons-usable material from the waste? So there are things that we’re going to have to watch, again, to make sure that we have tight limits not only on nuclear weapons, but on the plutonium and the highly enriched uranium that could be used to build nuclear weapons, to make sure that they stay out of the hands of nonstate actors. LOVE: Yeah. So looking at the whole supply chain, not just the loose nuclear weapons in the hands of terrorists. And it’s a good point that you raise. There are thirty-two countries that have nuclear energy. Another thirty countries are looking to develop that, perhaps as one of their measures of response to climate change. And when you look at those list of countries there’s ones with a lot of political instability. And some of the measures the United States was doing in the past, like the series of nuclear security summits, we haven’t held those in recent years. So, obviously, a lot of room for improvement. Susan, do you want to weigh in on this connection between nuclear energy at all? THISTLETHWAITE: Yeah. Let me just say, Greta Thunberg, the child of the age of resisting climate change, three weeks ago said that she wants to keep the—she favors keeping the nuclear power plants going in Germany rather than switching to coal. And I think this is an issue in relationship to how do we put together protecting ourselves from catastrophic climate change in relationship to safety of nuclear power plants? And the nuclear industry is very interested in increasing the number of power plants. LOVE: Yeah. So we hear a lot of advertisements from the nuclear industry that the new nuclear power plants will be much safer and better than the old. We certainly all would hope that to be true, but we still have the old ones with us with the vulnerabilities that we know of, as we see from places like Fukushima, as well as in the current war in Ukraine. So I think we still have time for another question, Rivka. OPERATOR: We do. Our next question comes from Daniel Joranko from Tennessee Interfaith Power and Light. He asks: What can the religious climate movement learn from the history of the religious nuclear peace movement? LOVE: And it’s a great question, because before the call, Susan and I were discussing a little bit whether the climate change issue helps catalyze interest and concern about nuclear weapons and nuclear disarmament issues, or the ways in which there may be some fracturing on that as religious communities come down on different directions on nuclear energy. But, Susan, what can the climate and environmental movement, religious movements, learn from the nuclear disarmament religious movements? THISTLETHWAITE: Well, I would say—and my experience over decades of the religious peace movement, religious anti-nuclear movement—is cast as wide a net as possible. That when we did Interfaith Just Peacemaking we had thirty Jewish, Christians, Islamic participants over six years. You are not going to get agreement. And you have to live with that. You have to take as much as you can in terms of collaborative activism. And you’re going to not do that together. And in the same way, and this is—I see this in the environmental movement as well. You’ve got to accept that you have to cast as wide a net as possible. And you’re going to get this, and you’re not going to get that. I do lobby in terms of weapons. And how are we going to control the out-of-control gun lobby? You don’t get everything. You just don’t. And so I think—let me speak confessionally—(laughs)—as a religious actor. One tends to ideals and purism.  Because, God, and we’re trying to avoid sin. But you have to be as pragmatic as you possibly can in order to cast as wide a net as you can and be as diverse as you can. Where are the most polluted areas in the world? Polluted areas in this country, where climate activists need to be concerned? It’s, of course, in poor communities. It’s in communities without power. I think the community that Steven represents is better at pragmatism. And I think if anything over the years, what I’ve learned is try to get as much as you can, cast as wide a net as you possibly can. And if you’re white, and you’re privileged, don’t lead. Don’t lead. LOVE: So be pragmatic, be diverse, collaborate. I wonder, Steven, because the Treaty to Prohibit Nuclear Weapons came into force last year, with a lot of support from the religious community, initially the U.S. government was quite opposed. More recently we’ve heard a little more conciliatory language, saying let’s search for common ground. Do you see that as a way in which we can do what you suggested to expand norms against nuclear weapons? PIFER: Yeah. No, I certainly appreciate the sentiment behind the Treaty to Prohibit Nuclear Weapons. And I think it has caused the U.S. government to think in a bit more pragmatic way about how to engage the, I think it’s now, fifty-five countries who have now ratified and brought that agreement into force. But having said that, my guess is it’s still—it’s too radical a step. And of all the countries that support it, not a single country that has nuclear weapons supports it. And so I think—it gets back to this, maybe my own experience in the government and looking for, doing as much as you can. But I think to get towards that goal, which I think is the right goal for the United States, of a world verifiably without nuclear weapons, it’s going to have to be a step-by-step process. So we have to look for our victories where we can take them. Small agreements may not be as exciting as we want but if they’re moving in the right direction, we should pursue them. Then can we also work on sort of strengthening these broader norms against nuclear use and nuclear testing that might then create an environment in which later we can get to more dramatic agreements? THISTLETHWAITE: I also want to say, Maryann, that, vis-à-vis the treaty, I think its advantage is it raises the thought threshold, right? Just simply to think of a world without nuclear weapons. But even without nuclear weapons, the knowledge would still exist. And Robert Oppenheimer once said: We physicists have known sin, and we cannot forget it. So what—but I think raising the thought threshold is a good idea. As much as we can, try to put the pressure on those who see nuclear weapons as a good thing. Because they’re not. LOVE: So lessons learned would be the importance of religious communities in developing norms, but it still leaves the hard work of the step-by-step of how to implement those norms and get there, yeah. Another question, Rivka? I think we have time for one more. OPERATOR: We do. Our next question comes from Yuri Mantilla from Liberty University. MATILLA: Yes. Considering the increasing influence of totalitarian ideologies in the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation, how can we address this issue? How can we negotiate these kind of international treaties when it is very clear that neo-Marxist, Leninist ideologies are influencing the foreign policy of the People’s Republic of China? And so from that perspective, I think the use of nuclear weapons—the threat of use of nuclear weapons—is part of that worldview. And considering Vladimir Putin’s perspective of moral relativism, which it’s a strange integration of neo-fascist and neo-communist together, how can we really influence those countries? I’m not thinking about the United States, but how can peace movements in the Russian Federation, in the People’s Republic of China, be successful in the twenty-first historical context? Thank you. LOVE: So Yuri’s question gets to the point that we often hear, we have to wait until conditions are right for nuclear disarmament, and that we really can’t engage. These are a question about how to engage these, when you’re talking about totalitarian regimes. Steven, do you want to respond to that, and then Susan? PIFER: I guess I kind of disagree with the premise. I mean, if the only other nuclear weapon states in the world were Britain and France, we wouldn’t need nuclear arms control. Where you need nuclear arms control are precisely with those countries where you have large political, economic, ideological differences. And we’ve done this. I mean, the original negotiations go back to the 1980s, where Reagan and Gorbachev, or Reagan in his second term really I think got interested in arms control. And in 1986, when they met in Reykjavik, they came very close—I’m not sure if the agreement would have withstood the test of time—but they came very close to a U.S.-Soviet agreement to ban all of their nuclear weapons within ten years’ time. And that was despite big ideological differences. So I think the trick is to find agreements that both sides see as in their mutual interest. I think both sides have an interest in avoiding a nuclear conflict and in avoiding a nuclear competition that becomes either too dangerous, or too expensive, or too destabilizing. And if you can find that mutual interest, you can then work an agreement. And if you have the right verification measures, you can have confidence in your ability to know the other side is abiding by the agreement or know that you will know if that other sides cheats in a way that would be militarily destabilizing. And you can do that, regardless what kind of domestic system that country has. LOVE: So the importance of transparency, and verifiability. It’s a great point. We don’t get to negotiate with Mother Theresa, and Gandhi, and Martin Luther King. We get to negotiate with the leaders that we have. And sometimes they may be bad actors. Susan? THISTLETHWAITE: Yeah. I was going to quote Yitzhak Rabin. “You make peace with your enemies, not with your friends.” And what you have to do, and—(laughs)—this is from having been president of a seminary. There is a fair amount of conflict in higher education. (Laughs.) So, or in international relations—talk, talk, talk. You have to make the connections, individuals to individuals, as you were pointing out, Steven. These international frameworks have to be increased and kept robust once they’re increased. Because it’s the connections between people that will ultimately produce some results. Not everything, but some. PIFER: And just the conversations themselves. I mean, talking to people who on the American side started out in the first U.S.-Soviet negotiations back in 1969, in the first strategic arms limitation talks. And what they said was even though it took longer than you would hope to get agreements, and the agreements were much more modest, just that dialogue, they said, we were able in our conversations and our concerns to help change how the Soviets looked at things, and vice versa. And that’s been one thing, I think, that there is an advantage to the fifty years of history of dialogue between the United States and the Soviet Union, or the United States and Russia, is we have a pretty common lexicon. We talk now in similar concepts. There’s an understanding there. But I’d like to see us begin to get into that intense dialogue with China, even if it may not produce early agreements, simply because that conversation begins to develop a shared understanding of concepts and a shared understanding of the other’s concerns. And that can be valuable, quite apart from whether or not you get a specific agreement, and how quickly you get that agreement. THISTLETHWAITE: And that’s a great point to focus on, the overlap between the diplomatic and the governmental approach, and the interreligious approach, is the need for dialogue to build deeper relationships. Before I turn it over to Irina, I want to thank you for a very robust and fascinating discussion. I want to remind our listeners that each of these participants have some wonderful books that they’ve written. Steven, can you remind us of one of—your recent book title? PIFER: Well, the one I wrote most recently was called The Eagle and the Trident. It’s a history of U.S.-Ukraine relations from 1991 until 2004. But for the purposes of this, a book I wrote back in 2012 with a colleague, Michael O’Hanlon, called The Opportunity: Next Steps in Nuclear Arms Control, which we wrote as ideas for whichever administration took office in 2013. Most of those ideas probably could still work today. LOVE: So very timely. My own book, Beyond Sovereignty, on global issues. And, Susan, your book, Interfaith Just Peacemaking. So some further resources. And now I’ll turn it over to Irina. FASKIANOS: Thank you all for this terrific conversation. We really appreciate your being with us and sharing your analysis and insights. We encourage you to follow Steven Pifer on Twitter at @steven_pifer. And, Steven, again, what is the website? PIFER: Well, I’m at Stanford at [email protected]. FASKIANOS: There you go. And you can follow Susan Thistlethwaite at the Chicago Theological Seminary website, ctschicago.edu. You can also follow Maryann Cusimano Love’s work at politics.catholic.edu. So it’s a mouthful, but we will be sending the link to the video and the transcript for today’s conversation. So we hope that you will watch it again and share it with your colleagues. You can follow CFR’s Religion and Foreign Policy Program on Twitter at @CFR_religion. And also, please do reach out to us. Write to us at [email protected] with any suggestions or questions. And if you are attending the SBL and AAR annual meetings in Denver, we hope you will join us in person for our luncheon panel on human rights around the world on Monday, November 21, at 11:30 a.m. Mountain Time. To register you can email us, again, at [email protected]. So thank you all, again, for being with us. We really appreciate it. And to all the fabulous questions and comments.
  • Elections and Voting
    Social Justice Webinar: Religion and the 2022 Midterm Elections
    Play
    Alan Cooperman, director of religion research at Pew Research Center, and Elaine C. Kamarck, senior fellow in the governance studies program and director of the Center for Effective Public Management at the Brookings Institution, discuss what to expect from the 2022 midterm elections, how religion might influence these elections, and what has changed since 2020. Thomas J. Reese, senior analyst at Religion News Service, moderates. Learn more about CFR's Religion and Foreign Policy Program. FASKIANOS: Thank you. Welcome to the Council on Foreign Relations Social Justice Webinar Series. This series is exploring social justice issues and how they shape policy at home and abroad through discourse with members of the faith community. I’m Irina Faskianos, vice president of the National Program and Outreach here at CFR. As a reminder, this webinar is on the record, and the video and transcript will be made available on CFR’s website, CFR.org, and on the iTunes podcast channel, Religion and Foreign Policy. As always, CFR takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. We are delighted to have Father Thomas Reese with us to moderate today’s discussion on religion in the 2022 midterm elections. Father Reese is currently a senior analyst at Religion News Service. Previously, he was a columnist at the National Catholic Reporter and editor-in-chief at America magazine. A Jesuit priest ordained in 1974, Father Reese was a senior fellow at the Woodstock Theological Center at Georgetown University where he has authored—or where he authored three books. So Tom, thank you for being with us and doing this. I will turn this over to you to introduce our distinguished panel. REESE: Thank you. Thank you, Irina. We do have a terrific panel for this topic of religion in the 2022 midterm election. Alan Cooperman is director of Religion Research at the Pew Research Center. He is an expert on religion’s role in U.S. politics, and has reported on religion in Russia, the Middle East, and Europe. Before joining the Pew Research Center, Mr. Cooperman was a national reporter and editor at the Washington Post, and a foreign correspondent for Associated Press and U.S. News and World Report. He is author or editor of numerous reports on religious communities in the United States and around the world. Mr. Cooperman has appeared on numerous media outlets including NPR, BBC, and C-SPAN. And also on our panel is Elaine Kamarck, who is a senior fellow in governance studies program as well as the director of the Center for Effective Public Management at the Brookings Institution. She is an expert on American electoral politics and government innovation and reform in the United States, the OECD nations, and developing countries. Dr. Kamarck researches the presidential nomination system and American politics, and has worked on many American presidential campaigns. She is the author of numerous books on politics and public policy. Dr. Kamarck is also a lecturer in public policy at the Harvard Kennedy School, and makes regular appearances in the media. So I think we’re going to have a tremendous conversation with this panel. Let me start it off by asking some questions of our panelists. I want to start with Alan. He’s the data person on the panel. Polling agencies like the Pew Research Center report that most Black Protestants and Jews vote Democratic; most white Evangelicals vote Republican. Catholics are more divided, with most white Catholics voting Republican and Hispanic Catholics voting Democratic. What more can you tell us about the impact of religion on voting in the United States? COOPERMAN: Well, I think you hit a lot of the highlights, Tom. Maybe our work is done for the day. (Laughter.) You left out one big group: the religiously unaffiliated—people who don’t identify with any religion. That’s a large and growing share of the population. It’s probably something in the neighborhood of 30 percent of all U.S. adults. It’s a smaller share of the electorate of voters but still probably something like a quarter, and that group you can think of as almost like a political counterweight to white Evangelical Protestants. The unaffiliated lean at a strongly Democratic tilt, as strongly Democratic as white Evangelical Protestants tilt Republicans, and they are groups of somewhat similar size. And of course turnout is always going to vary and, depending on the issues in particular elections, some religious groups may be more motivated to vote than others, and we can get into that. But there are a couple of other things that I will mention, that come to my mind right off the top of the head of interesting things to say, I think, beyond the basic patterns. Those patterns are pretty stable, but they have been moving a little bit over time. And one kind of big way of capturing that is just the idea of polarization, which we are all familiar with in our political world. But you see it in religion and politics as well. So the groups that lean Republican and have leaned Republican—such as white Catholics and Evangelical Protestants—have been trending even more Republican over time. And the groups that lean Democratic, well, particularly the unaffiliated, have been trending even more Democratic over time. Another thing to think about is that these same sort of patterns also show up when one divides the electorate in even more granular ways, bringing into account things like race and ethnicity. So just for example, if you look at Catholics—you’re absolutely right—white Catholics lean Republican; Hispanic Catholics lean Democratic, but in general not only does religion affect politics, but politics affects religion. And if you look at Catholic Republicans, Catholic Republicans in their social attitudes, particularly their political issue priorities, they look a lot more like all Republicans than they look like other Catholics. And Catholic Democrats similarly really look in a lot of ways—in terms of, again, their attitudes, their issue priorities going into this and other elections—past elections—look a lot more like other Democrats than they look like Catholics as a whole. If you look at Latinos—and we should go into Latinos because they are a really interesting group we’ve got here—Latino voters overall in their political identification are about two-thirds Democratic and one-third Republican, so a ratio of about two-to-one overall leaning Democratic. Now if you look at Latinos who are religiously unaffiliated, they are even more Democratic; they are three-to-one, sort of mirroring the unaffiliated as a whole. If you look at Latino Catholics, they’re a little less than two-to-one. They are like one-and-a-half-to-one, and if you look at Latinos who are Evangelical Protestants, they lean Republican. Now not as much as Evangelicals do overall, but they lean by about one-and-a-half-to-one ratio. So 50 percent Republican, 32 percent Democrat in some of the more recent data that I’ve seen in terms of their generic ballot inclinations going into this election; that is, what share of them say they will vote for a Democratic or Republican candidate in their congressional district in this election. So those patterns that you outlined—big picture—over time they are becoming even more sort of differentiated, and also they show up in lots of other ways when you look at the electorate. REESE: Elaine, you’ve been involved in political campaigns so I’d like to focus in on how political parties use religion in campaigning. It seems like the Republicans are more comfortable using the religion card. Conservatives are more comfortable talking about religion, whereas the Democrats seem to talk less about religion. Progressives tend to talk less about religion. What’s going on there, and what do you think should be going on there? KAMARCK: Well, I think Alan gave the answer to that which is that of the unaffiliated group, many of whom are simply not religious at all, they are mostly Democrats, OK? So Democrats have been reflecting their base, so to speak, when they don’t talk about religion. I personally got in great trouble in the Al Gore campaign in 2000 when I was quoted in the New York Times as saying, we’re going to take back God for the Democrats, and—(laughs)—because Gore himself is a very religious person. He actually went to divinity school. Anyway, that created a little firestorm inside the campaign. So traditionally, that is a reflection of the party. The party has been pro-choice very heavily for a long time, and that runs up against protests from different religious groups—Evangelicals and some Catholics. So, it has been—it makes sense that Democrats don’t talk about religion as much as Republicans do. REESE: Is there any way that Democrats could talk about religion safely or use religion in attracting—because there are a lot of religious people in the country. KAMARCK: Well, in fact, people like myself who are Roman Catholic and who are—who identify with the sort of charitable take-care-of-the-poor piece of Catholicism more than with the—some of the other cultural pieces, have tried to emphasize over the years that in fact the Democratic party’s traditional concern for the poor, for the downtrodden, for those who are discriminated against is in fact quite in keeping with our Christian faith, with our Christian theology. And so to the extent that Democrats do try to talk about religion, they do talk about it in that context. I don’t think they’ve done a very good job. I don’t think they’ve done as good a job as they should be doing on that, but that is the Democratic Party’s opening, and I think somebody is going to come along at some point and have a very powerful, powerful message on that piece particularly. COOPERMAN: Can I jump in, Tom? Everything Elaine said is 100 percent right as far as I can see, but of course, especially midterm elections are all about individual districts, and they’re not national. And so there are certainly exceptions. One big set of exceptions concerns African-American candidates because Black Americans—as I think everybody knows—are both a highly religious group and highly Democratic at the same time. And African-American candidates tend to be among those—not only African-American candidates, but they do tend to be among those who are more likely to talk about faith on the hustings. So Raphael Warnock in Georgia would be an obvious example of that, but he’s not the only one. And there are individual Democrats, particularly in the South and other parts of the country, depending on their own background, who are more comfortable about talking about faith than others. One thing that I think—I’m not a political practitioner, but I’ve heard many people say the thing that’s the biggest turnoff to voters is that someone is not sincere in what they are talking about, and indeed if someone who is not particularly religious in their own life starts trying to feign religiosity on the campaign hustings, it might not work out very well. REESE: Alan— KAMARCK: It did work out for Donald—I did point out it did work out well for Donald Trump. (Laughs.) He’s maybe the exception to the rule. REESE: Alan, actually, that— COOPERMAN: When we polled on Trump, not a lot of Trump supporters actually thought he was such a highly religious man, and not a lot of them thought that Donald Trump actually showed very high morals. What people said about Donald Trump—particularly religious voters, particularly Evangelical Protestants—is that they thought that he fought for the things that they believed in. So I’m not sure that people were deceived and believed that Donald Trump was actually strongly religious so much as they saw him as—as we used to say about dictators overseas: he may be an SOB but he’s my SOB—(laughter)—that sort of a calculation going on. REESE: Alan, another big thing that people have been talking about this past year is Christian nationalism, and you’ve done some research on this. Tell us about what you found about Christian nationalism. COOPERMAN: Well, thank you, Tom. In fact, we just put out a big report this morning, and that’s one reason why I was eager to speak today. You can find it on our website at pewresearch.org. We asked Americans about the term, Christian nation, whether the United States was intended by its founders to be a Christian nation, whether it is a Christian nation, whether it should be a Christian nation. And we further dug into that to ask people what they mean by that, why they say that, and to ask about a whole lot of questions that have to do with separation of church and state. And the bottom line, I think, is that this term Christian nationalism has gained a lot of currency among, oh, the chattering classes, the cognoscenti, the pundits, et cetera in the past year or two. A majority of Americans say they have heard little or nothing about it. It’s not—it’s not a broad thought. On the other hand, the idea that the United States is a Christian nation does seem to have pretty widespread appeal. So 60 percent of Americans say that they think that the Founders intended for the United States to be a Christian nation; 45 percent say they think the United States should be a Christian nation, and 33 percent—a third—say that they think the United States now is a Christian nation. REESE: Now is that of everyone or is that of the people who say they are— COOPERMAN: That’s everyone. That’s the general public. REESE: OK, not just the— COOPERMAN: Right, all U.S. adults aged eighteen and older, and this is a representative sample, and it’s weighted to be representative of the whole country—of the adult population of the United States. But when we ask what people mean by that, people who don’t think the United States should be a Christian nation, don’t think that it is, and don’t think that the Founders intended it to be, they think of a Christian nation as a place that imposes Christian values or teachings by law on the—and they think of something akin to a theocracy. Many of the people who support the notion of a Christian nation have a kind of softer, more general idea about what it means. In some cases they mean that it indicates simply that a majority of the U.S. population is Christian, which it is. It is north of 60 percent of U.S. adults identify as Christian. Those numbers have been dropping, by the way, fairly rapidly over the last fifteen years, but it’s still a solid majority of Americans who identify as one flavor or another of Christian. Many of them also have in mind when they say the United States is or should be a Christian nation just think it should be a good, moral place with kind of traditional moral values. Some have in mind that it should—they should be kind of biblical values broadly speaking. But what’s interesting is when we asked specific questions like, should the federal government declare the United States as a Christian nation or should the federal government never declare that the U.S. has any official religion, well, most of the public—two-thirds of Americans—say it should never declare any official religion. And even among those who say they think the United States should be a Christian religion, most of them do not want the federal government to officially declare Christian religion. And most of them do not want the United States to stop enforcing separation of church and state. So separation of church and state—the concept of it—is supported by a majority of the population overall, and it’s even supported by most of the people who think that the United States should be a Christian nation. And similarly, actually, roughly two-thirds of Americans say churches and other religious organizations should stay out of politics, at least on a sort of day-to-day basis, and they certainly should endorse candidates for office. And even many of the people who support the notion of Christian nation also take that position. So I think what’s going on here is that—one of the things you see going on in this campaign is that there are some people—mostly commentators, scholars—who are talking about Christian nationalism, and they mean that term in very pejorative terms. It’s very strongly equated with racism, with theocracy, with misogyny, with patriarchal attitudes, and so on. And they see it as a very bad thing. But at the same time, there are some political candidates who are claiming the mantle of Christian nationalism, and you might wonder, well, what’s going on here. What’s going on is that they’re kind of talking past each other. The people who are condemning Christian nationalism have something very different in mind from the people—again, that broad section of the American public—not necessarily a majority but close to it in many cases—who think the country is or should be a Christian nation. They don’t mean by that that it should impose Christian teachings on people or that it should stop having separation of church and state where the non-Christians should be kept out of elected office. That’s not what they mean by it. REESE: Elaine, what do you think about Christian nationalism? Do you think it’s a threat? Do you think it’s a growing phenomenon? How do you think politicians and especially religious leaders ought to talk about this? KAMARCK: Well, I think—just moving off of Alan’s comments, I think that what we’re seeing here is a basket of far-right attitudes and beliefs that a piece of the public has, and that that group is pretty strong in some places, and the backlash to it is pretty strong. I mean, this is a—I see Christian nationalism as a part and parcel of our overall extreme polarization; that you have in certain parts of the country people who believe it’s a Christian nation, think that the Democrats are trying to get rid of Christmas—we hear that every—we hear that every year, right? (Laughs.) And the Democrats are trying to get rid of Christmas, get rid of your guns, et cetera; groom your children to be homosexuals. I mean, there’s a whole basket of sort of attitudes that are deeply held in some parts of the country. What is staggering to me is how these attitudes, which have always been with us throughout American history, have now settled in geographic clumps because Americans have moved to where others are like them. And so we have a situation where we really do have very red and blue states; not just in terms of their voting, but in terms of a whole slew of issues like lifestyle, like religion, et cetera. When I worked for Al Gore, we used to get these reports about Tennessee every morning and what was going on in Tennessee, and one of the things that happened in that period of time is that people who were—whites who were homeschooling their children started moving to Tennessee. At one point it had the highest rate of homeschooled children in the country, and they were largely Christian, and of course, if you are homeschooling your children, you want to be close to others who are homeschooling your children so that you can create for them a social life, and soccer teams, and things like that. And so the country has been doing this in ways that are just surprising, even to me, and I’ve been studying politics for several decades now. And I think Christian nationalism is part of that far-right cultural and political movement that is very powerful. But it has its backlash as well. And so here we are about to be in an election that is as tight as can possibly be, OK, where there are four, five, six Senate races that are impossible to call right now, where everything is turning on very small changes in turnout, and that’s our politics today. REESE: We have about five more minutes for our discussion before we open it up to questions from everyone on the call, so use the little hand and type in your questions that you would like to make. Let’s take a look at some of the issues in this election campaign. The Republicans are stressing inflation, immigration, and crime; the Democrats want to talk about abortion, Trump, and threats to democracy. Alan, what do the people—(laughs)—what do the people care about? COOPERMAN: Yeah, well, the economy is number one for the general public—pretty much as it is in most elections, and very solidly number one. It won’t surprise anybody to know that over the summer, after the Supreme Court decision in the Dobbs case that overturned the Roe v. Wade and declared that the Constitution does not enshrine a woman’s right to choose to have an abortion, that the salience and the importance of the issue of abortion and reproductive rights rose very much, especially for Democrats. At the same time, some of the big issues that had been important in the 2020 campaign—such as COVID and COVID restrictions—those were falling way up over the summer. Certainly, inflation, gas prices, and those kinds of things; crime and public safety, those have increased in recent months. And the thing that’s so interesting is—as you pointed out, Tom—how the importance of various issues differs so much between Democrats and Republicans. And it’s sometimes tempting to point to media ecospheres for that and attribute it to those who watch CNN and MSNBC versus those who watch Fox News, or where people get their information. But I think at this point so much of this is now baked into the cake. And if you look, again, at religious groups, one of the things you find is that the big distinction is not that Catholics as a whole, for example, have different issue priorities than Protestants do, or than Jews do. The big difference is, in some ways, between Republican Catholics and Democratic Catholics, and among Protestants between Republicans and Democrats, and within the Jewish community between Republicans and Democrats, and so on. The hyper-partisan polarization is really apparent any time you dig just even a little bit below the surface of these numbers. REESE: Elaine, there are two theories of how to run a campaign. One is to try and win over the swing voters, and the other is to get out your base. What do you think the two parties are doing during this campaign, during this midterm election cycle, especially with the stress they put on these issues? KAMARCK: Well, one thing that my colleague, Bill Galston, and I have been writing about for three to four decades, I hate to admit, is, in fact, the difference between the two parties when it comes to the base theory versus the persuasion theory. The Republicans have always had—for at least the last four decades they have an advantage in the base theory, because the number of conservatives in America are higher than the number of liberals. Sometimes it’s been as high as two to one. Recently that’s shrunk a bit, because the number of liberals have crept up. But still there are substantially more conservatives in the country than there are liberals, people who call themselves conservatives. What that means is for Republicans it’s a little bit easier to run a base campaign, get out your vote, than it is for Democrats. Democrats have a problem here. OK, they’re just—their liberal basis is simply not big enough. REESE: But aren’t there more Democrats than Republicans in the country? KAMARCK: It’s about evenly split. And then it’s sort of Democrats, Republicans, and independents. There’s a lot of independents, who, as we know, are—some are Democratic leaners; some are Republican leaners. I think the interesting thing about this is that both parties right now—if we take it to this election, both parties are trying desperately to get out their base. But for the Democrats, the question is: is there one issue that could, in fact, pull some people who might be voting Republican into the Democratic camp? And that issue is abortion. Abortion is, I think, fundamentally different than some of the other political issues where—and I think Alan alluded to this—where, if you’re a Democrat, you think inflation is something that Joe Biden is working hard at. And if you’re a Republican, you think inflation is something that Joe Biden caused. OK, and it’s just—your party ID comes really first. Abortion is different. First of all, the two parties are very clearly different on this. There is no ambiguity about where the parties stand. And it is deeply personal and it is intense. And the one thing that politics and polling can’t do really well is measure intensity. So I think that we’re in a situation where the Democrats are facing a pretty grim election day. And their one hope is that new voters, younger voters, women voters, are going to cross over, so to speak, turn away from their traditional Republican leaning, and vote Democratic on this issue. And you see that in their ads. You see that in—we’ve seen that in the four special elections that have happened this year. And I think that that’s where the Democrats—if they manage to do better than expected, it will be on that issue. It’ll be because of that issue. REESE: That’s terrific. The three of us have had a wonderful conversation here, and now we want to invite the other participants on our call to come in with their questions. So I hand it over to our other moderator. OPERATOR: Thank you, Father Reese. (Gives queueing instructions.) Our first question will come from Ani Zonneveld from Muslims for Progressive Values. ZONNEVELD: Good morning, afternoon. This is a fascinating conversation. And my question is towards Alan. I know you had a ten-year study of American Muslims from—I think starting from 2007, 2013, and 2017. And the trajectory of the values—you could see that Muslims were leaning towards more progressive values—LGBT rights, critical thinking, reinterpreting Islam for the twenty-first century. So what I’d like to know is that I’ve been speaking to traditional imams in America, and what they’ve said is that more Americans voted for Trump the second time around than the first time around. I’d like to see a study on that and if you could do that. And number two, I have also seen how Muslims now have borrowed the modus operandi from the Christian right in substantiating their discriminating values, particularly towards LGBT and gender issues, from the Christian right, and using the Religious Restoration Act to justify that discrimination. And I know there’s a lot of focus on Christian and Catholics and some Jewish communities, but I would like to see more in the Muslim community, if you will. Thank you. REESE: Alan, what kind of data do we have on the Muslim community? COOPERMAN: Not as good as we would like, because Muslims are a relatively small share of the U.S. population, and to get a good sample of Muslims is really not easy. When we’ve done Muslim-American surveys, we’ve done them in multiple languages, and we’ve put a lot of effort, and it’s very costly. And it’s very worth doing, but we can only do them periodically. So, as the questioner noted, we’ve done three. We’re hoping to do another one. I don’t have a time certain for it, but we do have plans on the drawing board. They’ve become more expensive and more complicated over time. I also like to think they’ve gotten a little bit better over time. In general, the Muslim-American population does lean Democratic. I’m not sure that I really have good data particularly on actual voting patterns. That’s a really difficult thing, both from the general public and especially for small groups, because in America we have people vote in secret. So we have exit polls, but the exit polls don’t give very good data on small religious groups. We can ask people how they voted, but then you get post facto declarations that we just know factually are not always correct. So the best data on actual voting comes from, I think—and maybe Elaine will disagree with me; political scientists have different views on this—but what’s called validated voter studies, where you combine various types of data and you combine public data on who actually voted with a probability sample of Americans and ask them how they voted. And so then you are discounting the people who tell you how they voted but they didn’t actually vote. And when you look at that validated voter data and look at Donald Trump, first of all, Donald Trump won in 2016 and did not win in 2020. And it’s not the case that more Americans voted for him in 2020 than in 2016. That’s not so. But he did gain in some groups. And depending on exactly which validated voter study, you look at, et cetera, some people say he gained ten points among Latinos. Some people say nine. Some people say eight or five. But I think there’s a general feeling that he gained a little bit among Latinos. There are some other subgroups of the population he gained in. Biden, the Democratic candidate, did better among independents than Hillary Clinton did in 2020—I’m sorry, in 2016—and probably did a little bit better among suburban voters. So, there are changes, but it’s also true that both elections were very close. And it’s also true that, going into this midterm election, it’s close. And I wish I could tell you, I wish I could tell Ani, that I really know what exactly the voting intentions of Muslim-American voters are today and how they compare to the past, but the data is just not that good. I can say fairly confidently that Muslim Americans lean Democratic. They’re more likely to vote Democratic than Republican. But I’m not sure exactly what that margin is, and I’m not sure how that’s going to play out in this particular election. I also don’t know about turnout, enthusiasm of Muslim-American voters. Like Catholic voters, Muslim Americans, many of them are both traditionally religious, or especially, like, Latino Catholic voters. They’re both traditionally religious but also Democratic-leaning. And those two things can sort of cut in different directions, depending on the issues involved in a particular campaign. REESE: OK, let’s take the next question. OPERATOR: Our next question comes from Tom McWhertor from World Renew. He writes: How does the mix of white supremacy and Christian nationalism change the character of this discussion since 2016? REESE: Elaine, you want to take that question? KAMARCK: Sure. I think that those two threads and the consistent support of Donald Trump for those two threads has made them stronger, OK. And it has also made them—gotten them into mainstream politics and mainstream debate. I mean, we did always have white supremacists in the United States. That’s for sure. We did have a group that you could call Christian nationalists. But they were always regarded as on the fringe of the Republican Party. They have now become the mainstream of the Republican Party, causing some more traditional Republicans to leave that party or to leave it temporarily, I mean, Liz Cheney being the prime example of that. So what you’ve got is you’ve got a group—those two groups you mentioned used to be on the fringes. They are now much more the mainstream of the Republican Party. There’s a civil war inside the Republican Party, because some people want to retain its traditional values and emphasis on business and low regulation and low taxes. And that, I think, is going to be fought out. It was fought out, to a certain extent, in the primaries, where Donald Trump did very well and some of those candidates did very well. And, of course, one of the things we will be watching in the general election, though, is, how did those candidates who won on these issues by sending the dog whistles out on white supremacy, et cetera, how did they do in the general election? What are their margins? OK, did they win or did they lose? Or if it’s a very Republican state and they win, what’s their margin? Is the margin the same as Republican margins used to be, say, four years ago, or has it shrunk? So those are the sorts of things we’re going to be watching. But basically these—this is now the modern Republican Party, and we’re going to now have a test as to how well it does in the general—in a general election without Trump actually on the ballot. REESE: Thank you. COOPERMAN: Can I throw in— REESE: Sure. COOPERMAN: Can I throw in one thing? When people talk about Christian nationals, they don’t always throw in the word “white.” And it’s important. White Christian nationalism and Christian nationalism may be two different things, because let me just say that attitudes that are used as markers of Christian nationalism are, on the whole, as prevalent among Black Americans and Hispanic Americans as they are among white Americans. So what I mean by that is, for example, a question like should the United States be a Christian nation? Is the United States a Christian nation? Should teachers be allowed to teach Christian—be allowed to lead Christian prayers in public schools? Should the federal government stop enforcing separation of church and state? Should the federal government advocate for specifically Christian values? So those positions are actually, roughly speaking in most cases, as popular among—now, it’s not necessarily a majority, but they’re as popular among Black Americans and Hispanic Americans as they are among white Americans. Those are not white-only positions. Now, when you then throw white supremacy in on top of those things, you may be talking about a different mix, because what I was trying to say about the whole notion of a Christian nation, for many people that’s a pretty soft notion. It’s not necessarily an exclusivist notion. For many people the word Christian, who are Christians, it just means good values. It means traditional thinking, et cetera. It isn’t necessarily advocating a theocracy. Now, when you throw white supremacy onto it and add a bunch of other caveats, then maybe you’re talking about something different, actually, a more compact and—oh, what’s the word I want? Certainly from the point of view of progressives, a more poisonous set of positions than—but again, these things—these positions actually—I just want to emphasize, these positions have pretty wide appeal. REESE: OK, next question. OPERATOR: Our next question is a written submission from Sana Tayyen from the University of Redlands, who writes: We see a lot about how Christian nationalists want to shape America within our borders. What about their views in terms of America’s role in the rest of the world? Do they want us to present ourselves to the rest of the world as a Christian nation? What does that mean for how we conduct our foreign policy? REESE: What do you think about that, Elaine? KAMARCK: Well, I don’t know what I think about that. I can tell you that the way these values have most impacted our foreign policy is in a very simple phenomenon that occurs absolutely regularly whenever we change parties, which is USAID—if there’s a Democrat in office, USAID is permitted to give funding to entities that provide abortions abroad. And the minute a Republican comes in, they cut that off. OK, so literally our foreign aid in that particular instance of abortion is directly affected by religion and by the religious coalitions that make up one or the other party. Other than that, I’m just not sure that I know the answer to that. And Tom or Alan might be better capable to answer that. REESE: Sounds like a good answer to me. COOPERMAN: In the past, when I’ve tried to dissect on particular questions about foreign policy—so not a little like a broad question, how should the U.S. conduct foreign policy, but particular questions about particular wars, particular events, treaties, and so on. When we’ve looked at that and we’ve analyzed it, people’s religious views don’t seem to have very much independent effect on that. Now, the issue of abortion might be different, especially, overseas and support for it. That might be one where religious views have an independent effect. But basically what I want to say is people’s views on foreign policy, as with so many domestic policies, are primarily shaped by their political partisanship. And so it’s really not—again, it’s not a Christian versus non-Christian thing. It’s a Republican versus Democratic thing, primarily in public opinion. REESE: OK, we’ve got about fifteen minutes left. So I’ll ask the panel to be crisp in responding so that we can get in as many questions as possible. Next question. OPERATOR: Our next question comes from Laura George from the Oracle Institute. GEORGE: Hi. Good afternoon. I’m in southwestern Virginia at the tip of the Bible Belt and see a lot of the rural movement toward the far right. And we were talking a minute ago about maybe not that their numbers are growing but that they’ve become more vocal. And my question has to do with actually what I see as a growing “God gap” in that, using spiral dynamics as a model, what we’re seeing, I think, is that prior stage-four nationalists on this model are becoming stage-three neonationalists. I see the spiral collapsing. And at the other end of the spectrum, what I see are the millennials, and the Gen Z, and the people who you guys categorize as the “nones” or unaffiliated are actually moving toward more sophisticated views of the godhead. So my question has to do with this growing “God gap,” which is a term we use here at Oracle. How do you see that impacting the future of America when there’s so little common ground left? And also we believe that your view of the godhead necessarily defines how you operate in the world. REESE: Either of you want to try that? KAMARCK: Well, I’ll just take a stab at this. I mean, in this whole area there are major generational changes going on. I was struck by—I think it was Alan’s data at Pew that the Christian nationalism, white Christian nationalism, was most popular among older Republican Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation. And as we know, the Evangelical movement has sort of slowed its growth. It’s not attracting as many young people as it did. We know in our church, the Roman Catholic Church, that there’s fewer young people attending mass regularly, et cetera, than there has been in the past. So we’re looking at a change, a demographic change, that I think is going to be quite significant. I think it poses a challenge for organized—a big challenge for organized religion, and I think it will have political consequences as these generations move into and out of the electorate, which they are doing. So I don’t think there’s anything necessarily permanent about this because so much of this is generational. The Trump phenomenon is generational. The sense of white grief is heavily heard among older white men who grew up in an era when they thought that their status as white men were going to guarantee them a certain amount of prestige and a certain amount of success in the world, and it didn’t necessarily work out that way for everyone. I think there’s a generational aspect to this that will change as we go forward. REESE: Let me follow up on that by asking the question, we’ve been focused on how religion impacts politics. What about the other way around? How is American politics changing religion? COOPERMAN: I think it’s an excellent question, and one of the things that a number of scholars—Michelle Margolis among them—I’ll just mention as one, but by no means alone—have been pointing out is increasing research that suggests that in many cases people form their political attachments before they form their religious attachments. So during the course of a lifetime and especially in young adult years, people come of age, separate from their parents and in some cases change, and don’t adopt either the political affiliation or the religious affiliation of their parents in any event often go through a period of questioning and so on. And a lot of the research now suggests that it’s just as common, maybe more common, certainly important to think of it moving as people’s political attachments affecting their religious attachments. And so when we think about the growth of the unaffiliated— which is now this very large blob that really needs to be disaggregated, not just as one sort of all the same kind of people, but a variety of different types—but, well, 30 percent of the overall U.S. adult population and something like 40 percent of adults between the ages of eighteen and twenty-nine—that’s a really big group—and one theory about why those folks disassociate from religion is political. And I don’t think this is the entire explanation, but part of it is that it’s a backlash, in part, against the entanglement of religion with politics—and particularly conservative religion and conservative politics—in the United States. And as Michael Hout and Claude Fischer sort of elaborated this theory and said, basically, what folks are saying—if that’s what religion is, then I don’t want any part of religion. Now, there are other folks saying, oh, hey, but wait, that’s not what religion is. Religion isn’t all that. There’s plenty of other kinds of religion. It’s not all conservative religion and conservative politics entangled. But that’s part of what’s going on. And if we look at the unaffiliated as a whole—Laura, I apologize I’m not actually familiar with the specific sets of diagrams and analyses that you’re talking about, but I would say that the unaffiliated, from my point of view, should be and can be disaggregated a bunch of ways. And one of those ways is between the people who are kind of—they’re nonreligious in principle. They’ve taken a thoughtful position, and they feel that they are atheist or agnostic. And they’ll tell you that, and they’ve thought about that. But there’s a bigger—there’s another group and it’s probably a bigger group that is basically uninterested in religion. And they’re not necessarily atheist or agnostic, and they’re not necessarily anti-religious. Many of them will tell us they believe in God. Some will tell us they pray. But they’re basically disinterested in religion, and when we ask questions about their levels of knowledge, for example, two totally different groups. Atheists and agnostics have extremely high levels of education and very high levels of knowledge about religion. Whereas the sort of disinterested part of the unaffiliated have lower levels of education and much lower levels of theological sophistication, and of understanding the history of religion, and an ability to answer factual questions about religion. So I agree with you. These are two different groups. To be clear, both of those groups are growing in size. Like the number of Americans and the share of Americans who are atheists, agnostics—those who are principled non-religious—and the sheer kind of—I’m going to, again, use this term—the sort of disinterested nonreligious. There may be more than just disinterest going on, but that’s part of it. They’re both growing as a share of the population. REESE: OK. I think we have time for one more question. OPERATOR: Our next question comes from Galen Carey from the National Association for Evangelicals. CAREY: Hi. I wanted to dig a little deeper on the question of how politics is impacting religion, and as a—I represent Evangelical Christians, not only white but of all ethnicities. And what we find is that politics in many ways is hijacking the Evangelical brand, and so that you have now even Evangelical Buddhists, for example, who don’t share any of our theological beliefs, but they have said, oh, that must be someone who’s politically conservative and so on. So it’s a considerable distress to us or challenge how to maintain the religious or theological grounding to our identity, and also, just to illustrate that we have a whole variety of political commitments across the board, although there are some that are more numerous than others. So I wonder, is that something that you all also are seeing, and is that happening with other groups? Or is it mostly with us? KAMARCK: I can say that it’s happening with lots of groups because what has happened to our politics for a wide variety of reasons—and we’ve had lots of books written on it here at Brookings and other places—is that as America has become more polarized, your partisan identification colors everything else, OK. Your choice of religion. It colors where you live. It colors who you marry, who you fall in love with. I recently had a friend, a widow, who finally found a very nice man, and she was dating him. And he told her that he had voted for Trump, and she said, oh, that’s it. Sorry, I can’t go out with you anymore. So I mean—we’ve never seen—well, I mean, we have seen, of course, if we go back to the nineteenth century. But in recent American history, we haven’t seen this level of polarization. It’s not surprising it’s affecting religion. It’s affecting every place. It’s affecting where people choose to live, what neighborhood. I’ve heard of people looking at the voting statistics for a certain country before deciding to buy a house there to see if they were going to be living with Democrats or living with Republicans. So we’re in an odd place in America, where politics seems to have dominated everything, and I think we’re in this for a little while. I don’t think we’re in this permanently. COOPERMAN: That’s a great answer, Elaine, and I agree with it. I could throw in, Galen, to your question a little bit of a wonky answer. I think it’s a terrific question as to whether the Evangelical label is attracting people who are basically really not Evangelicals into Evangelicals and for political reasons, and you might ask the reverse side of it—whether certain people who are theologically Evangelical are running away from Evangelicalism because of its attachments—the political labeling. We did take a crack at this. The best way to do it was with longitudinal data. So you’re looking at the same set of respondents over time, and we did that with our American Trends Panel, about ten thousand people. And we looked at those people from 2016 to 2020 and took people who are in both sets of studies and looked at their attitudes toward Trump and what happened with them, and then the Evangelical label. To make a long story short, we did not find evidence that there are a lot of people leaving Evangelicalism because of the political label. We did find some evidence that there are some people who became Evangelicals or adopted that label, who are supportive of Trump, had conservative political views over those years. Having said that, though, the notion that the broad mass of people who identify as Evangelical Protestants are really not religious, and they’re just political. I don’t think that that’s the case. What we found in 2016 and in 2020, and in our data all along, is that most of the people who self-identify as Evangelical answer a variety of other questions in ways that indicate they actually are traditionally religious in lots of ways. They tend to be people who say they go to church often. They tend to be people who say they believe in God with absolute certainty. They tend to be people who say religion is very important in their lives, and so on, and much more than, say, mainline or non-Evangelical Protestants, or other groups of the population. So this notion that somehow or other Evangelicalism as a whole, that the label is religiously empty today, I might say it’s a little bit in play. You’re not wrong to worry that things are going on with politics. But it’s not a false label as far as I can see. REESE: But I think one of the other things is we’ve seen a different impact depending on whether a church has a congregational model of governance or a hierarchal. I mean, we’ve seen a lot of Evangelical pastors who, if they speak out against Trump, they’re fired. Whereas, in Catholic Church, it’s more hierarchical so the people can’t fire their priest. COOPERMAN: Well, remember, even among the Evangelicals, Tom, and Galen, even if my numbers hold up—and in recent elections we’ve had Evangelicals—self-identified, white Evangelical Protestants—I’m going to limit it to white for political reasons, not for theological reasons—voting roughly four to one Republican, that still means that 20 percent are not voting Republican. I mean, it’s not an unappreciable share, and these elections are very tight. And it isn’t—Galen’s very aware—there are prominent Evangelical voices who are not Trump supporters, and who are not white supremacists or Christian nationalists. And we should be careful not to throw too broad a brush, and I certainly don’t want to be accused of it. I’ve given some numbers that indicate sort of the overall tilt of religious groups, but by no means should that—should people take that to mean that everybody in those religious groups has exactly the same position. They don’t. There’s a lot of nuance and variance, and there is some movement over time. REESE: Well, this has been a wonderful conversation. I want to thank our panelists for bringing their wealth of knowledge and experience to this conversation. And now, I’ll turn it over to Irina. FASKIANOS: Thank you, all. This was really a great hour. We appreciate your taking the time to do this, and to all of you for being with us. We encourage you to follow their work. You can find Alan Cooperman’s work on PewResearch.org—that is the website; Elaine Kamarck’s work on Twitter at @elainekamarck; and of course, the Brookings website is Brookings.edu. You can follow Father Tom at @thomasreesej. And, obviously, you can follow us at @CFR_Religion. We will send out a link to this webinar, the video, and the transcript as well as a link to the report that Alan referenced today, and anything else—Elaine, if you have something that you want to share with the group, we’d be happy to circulate that. As always, send us your comments and feedback, suggestions for other ideas we should cover in this series and speakers to [email protected], and just please join us for our next religion and foreign policy webinar on the future of nuclear weapons on Tuesday, November 8, at 1:00 p.m. Eastern time. So thank you, all, again. We really appreciate it. KAMARCK: Thank you. COOPERMAN: Thank you. KAMARCK: Thank you. REESE: Bye-bye.
  • Nigeria
    A Tertiary Debacle
    Nigerian universities urgently need a reboot; whether ASUU should be part of that process is an open question.
  • West Africa
    Religion and Foreign Policy Webinar: The Politics of Religion and Gender in West Africa
    Play
    Chiedo Nwankwor, vice dean of education and academic affairs, and director of SAIS Women Lead at Johns Hopkins University, and Ebenezer Obadare, the Douglas Dillon senior fellow for Africa studies at CFR, discuss how religion and gender affect politics and policy in West Africa. Katherine Marshall, senior fellow at the Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs and professor of the practice of development, conflict, and religion at Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service, moderates. Learn more about CFR's Religion and Foreign Policy Program. FASKIANOS: Welcome to the Council on Foreign Relations Religion and Foreign Policy Webinar series. The Religion and Foreign Policy Webinar series convenes religion and faith-based leaders in cross-denominational dialogue on the intersection between religion and international relations. I’m Irina Faskianos, vice president of the National Program and Outreach here at CFR. As a reminder, this webinar is on the record. The audio, video, and transcript will be available on CFR’s website, CFR.org, and on the iTunes podcast channel, Religion and Foreign Policy. As always, CFR takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. We’re delighted to have Katherine Marshall with us today to moderate our discussion on the politics of religion and gender in West Africa. Katherine Marshall is a senior fellow at Georgetown University’s Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs, and leads the center’s work on religion and global development. She is also a professor of the practice of development, conflict, and religion in the Walsh School of Foreign Service. She teaches courses on ethics of development work and mentors students at many levels. And she was just appointed as a member of the Advisory Committee on Voluntary Foreign Aid at the U.S. Agency for International Development. With five decades of experience in a variety of development issues in Africa, Latin America, East Asia, and the Middle East, particularly those faced by the world’s poorest countries, she is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and a member of CFR’s Religion Advisory Committee. So Katherine, thanks for all that you do. I’m going to turn it over to you to introduce our distinguished speakers and to moderate the conversation before we turn to the group for their questions and comments. MARSHALL: Thank you and good afternoon. It’s a pleasure to be here to discuss a particularly important, interwoven set of issues on this, which is the Day of the Girl Child. So we have two very experienced and provocative speakers today. First we have Chiedo Nwankwor, who is the vice dean of education and academic affairs, and director of the SAIS Women Lead at Johns Hopkins University. Her primary specializations are comparative politics with a focus on African politics, and women and gender studies. And her research and teaching interests include women’s political participation with an emphasis on ministerial-level politics in Africa, women’s health and health policy, feminism, international relations, and the political economy of gender in Africa. Dr. Nwankwor’s work has been published in a variety of journals, and she coedited a book on the Nigerian National Assembly. She is a fellow of the Center for Democracy and Development in Nigeria and consults for the World Bank, Bloomberg Philanthropies, and Premium Times Nigeria. We also have Ebenezer Obadare, who is the Douglas Dillon senior fellow for Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Before joining CFR, he was a professor of sociology at the University of Kansas, Lawrence. Dr. Obadare is also a senior fellow at the New York University School of Professional Studies Center for Global Affairs, as well as a fellow at the University of South Africa’s Institute of Theology. He was the Ralf Dahrendorf scholar and Ford Foundation international scholar at the London School of Economics and Political Science. Dr. Obadare was a political reporter for The News and TEMPO magazines and a lecturer in international relations at the Obafemi Awolowo University. His primary areas of interest are civil society and the state, and religion and politics in Africa. And Dr. Obadare is the author and editor of numerous books. His most recent is titled Pastoral Power, Clerical State: Pentecostalism, Gender, and Sexuality in Nigeria. So you see we have a vast array of experience here on a topic which is very much interwoven, and affects, I think, the national and local level, the Africa-wide level, but also the global level. And we’re listening, I think, to a lot of African voices this week during the World Bank-IMF annual meetings that are taking place in Washington. So why don’t we start with Ebenezer. Why don’t you sort of—why is religion important particularly? What’s it got to do with gender, and what’s it got to do with politics? Where do we start in unraveling these issues? OBADARE: Thank you, Katherine. Thank you for having me. I’m going to—let me, maybe on a broadly philosophical note, maybe just to offer reminders why it’s important to take women seriously. And I think for me it always goes back to the question of—so the question of how much progress a given society has made on the path towards social equality, a question that is often posed in different times. I think for me is best answered with a different sort of question, which is: How free are women in that society? And you can sort of break down that into further subdivisions. How much control do women in that given society have, all things considered, over their lives and bodies, including—among other things—like sexual and reproductive rights, right to own property, right to dispose of property, right to education. Life, liberty, the pursuit of happiness—the whole nine yards. So I think it’s the question of how much social equality you have in society can be approached from the much more fundamental question for me is: How free are women in that society? So that—I think that’s sort of to state the broad parameters of the conversation. But what is felt toward religion and gender itself, I think one thing to note is it’s a paradox that while religious ideology is often an obstacle or an impediment to the realization and enjoyment of some of the rights I’ve just listed, women surprisingly find opportunities for social maneuvering within the spaces of religious institutions. And that enables them to challenge male domination. It doesn’t mean they are always successful, but sometimes they find those opportunities. So at any rate, it would seem generally unhelpful to speak of women as a homogenous category especially as we see on the ground that they are constantly divided along the lines of class, profession, education, access to power, and all of that. So a corollary of that point is that women’s role within the contexts of religious institutions—and I find this in the context of my own work—is so far ambivalent, so women are constantly swinging between disruption or revolt on the one hand, and stabilization and consolidation of religious institutions and religious ideology on the other. Well, let me quickly tie that all by taking those to a different region of the world right now because what is happening there pertains to what we are talking about in a West African context, so—which is that many of the issues at the intersection of religion and gender that we’re talking about today, they are currently on display in Iran—where women are in revolt against an Islamic theocracy that more or less operates like a panopticon that is fundamentalist, suspicious of individual agency and initiative, especially women’s initiative and individuality. And it’s not that we regard and treat women like children in permanent need of adult male supervision. The slogan of the protesters in Iran is a slogan that I think one ought to recommend to women in West Africa, women in every other region of the world: Women, Life, Freedom. I think the slogan itself is a reminder of what is at stake in conversations about religion and conversations about gender. MARSHALL: Great. Thank you so much. Chiedo, over to you. How would you frame the issue and the challenges that we’re facing? NWANKWOR: I thank you so very much for having me. I think Ebenezer said it all, but let me speak specifically to gender, right? And so, if by way of framing this, one would ask a couple questions like what is gender, and how does this shape women’s lives and experiences across the continent? Two, why are gender considerations critical for politics on the continent? Three, what has been changed, both in the discourse and the reality of gender relations in contemporary signs across the continent? And last, how has gender implicated pathways for outcomes of politics across the continent, right? And so when we talk about gender, I think often we just talk women, right, but we need to be sure that gender is not just women; gender represents learned behaviors and practices about what it means to be either male or female, right? So when we talk about gender we are talking about relative, core constitution of dynamics across the continent. So in a sense we are talking about culturally constructed ideas of what it means to be me, a female on the continent, and what it means to be Ebenezer as a male on the continent, right? So it’s not so much about male-female as it is about masculinity and femininity and how those characteristics shape and define what it means to be a man or a woman. And because these are socially constructed, right, they are contextual; they vary from place to place and from time to time. For example, gender will therefore account for what women and other people considered feminine, particularly across the continent but not uniquely across the continent because we know that these are global dynamics, right—usually subordinated and invisible. So why is gender consideration critical for politics on the continent? Because primarily it should [give] access to power and influence, right? It shapes the citizenship rights and status. And it informs public policy and access to resources, right? So it’s critical because, particularly across the continent, gender is the master identity, of hegemonic proportions. So to the extent that identity consists of repertoires of categories and roles for organizing cells within a society, gender is a master identity across the continent. So gender is primary in—it’s a primary identifying characteristic of an individual, often the most important constituent in an individual’s identity, and is therefore at the core of social identity, and influences roles and behaviors. So I, on the continent, will primarily identify first as a woman, right? Ebenezer will primarily identify as male before his ethnic and religious—or in reverse depending on what is most salient to him. And so this has real significant implications for public school mobilization. So for example, gender will intersect in very specific ways with religion as Ebenezer has said, and being male and Christian has different life outcomes for being male, than female and Christian. Being male and Muslim has different life outcomes for being female and Muslim, right? But more importantly while gender, as you have said, is hegemonic in terms of identity making and identity conferral, and while it stands at the origin of other differences and subordinations, its pervasiveness and universality makes it a less cohesive and potent base for collective identification and mobilization, kind of like religion, right? So in the case of religion and maybe ethnicity, you have this cohesiveness around geography, right? But gender is geographically separated and divided also by all these other identity categories. So class is also fragmented by ethnicity and religion. So for gender to be in any way, shape, or form, active, right, and successful as a form of political mobilization, it has to ally itself with other more cohesive identities to inspire collective consciousness and action. And so that is why gender becomes very key—critical for policies across the continent. MARSHALL: I’m interested in following up on one issue—that in many cases, religious communities or religious practices and beliefs are seen as anathema or hostile to women’s more active public roles, and there can be tensions between feminists who are so-called feminists and women who come with a religious identity. I’m curious as to whether you see anything along those lines in Africa. NWANKWOR: I think I missed the question. Do you want to just repeat this? MARSHALL: I’m asking about the religious role versus feminism. NWANKWOR: OK. MARSHALL: And the fact that, in many situations, feminist women who do not come from a religious perspective may be uneasy about religion and women’s religious roles, and vice versa where religious women are uneasy about feminism. And you’ve emphasized that it’s very contextual—it depends on the context. But if we’re trying to generalize about Africa, how might you look at that issue? NWANKWOR: So it’s—this is, as you rightly put it, a complex issue, right, because of the multiple imperfections of identities and subjectivities inherent in feminism and religion, and the imperfection of those. And again, it’s also to identify as to acknowledge that when we’re talking about these intersections—it’s not just religion and feminism—gender and feminism, it’s also the inherent and overlapping other identity markers, right, that strategically ally amongst themselves to adapt to what has become a rather problematic issue. So when we are talking about this, we typically go to ideas—traditional versus progressive ideas of womanhood and feminism, right? But it’s also to recognize that there is no fundamental contradiction between religion and feminism. If feminism is the strive for equality, male and female created He them, right? And so that’s typically, most times, is what is lost in this debate. And I would dare say that parts of this debate generated from patriarchal—(inaudible)—and patriarchal attempts to dislodge and disrupt the movement for gender equality, right, in creating in most instances—and this is not to say that we don’t have differences in interests—women’s interests—based on where women stand at their social locations on the spectrum. But it’s to say that despite these differences as a function of social location and positionality, that there are what we—and research—has seen to be collectivism of interest that connects women across the board. And so those then become the basis for cross-mobilizations, and most times we tend to focus on the differences that lead to policy paralysis rather than focusing on the commonalities that will drive some form of change in public policy and women’s empowerment. MARSHALL: Great. Ebenezer, let’s throw the question to you of trying to tease out a little bit some of the distinctive challenges, but also—we could also call them opportunities as well as distinctions within the African continent. What is—there’s a lot of data that shows Africa may be the most religious continent, whatever that means, and it also has some remarkable women, obviously, but also a lot of women who suffer. So I’m interested in your take on what—how you would point to things that are distinctive about Africa. OBADARE: So thank you for the question. I think maybe there are two things for me with respect to what we are saying right now. So the first one is about what you might call the fundamental frame of reference for people, and this is not just about gender. I think it cuts across your class, ethnicity, and all, identity markers—that for a majority of Africans, the fundamental frame of reference is still spiritual, and what do I mean by that? That when people think about power, when people think about authority, for instance, there’s always that general understanding. Not of who’s speaking, but the assumption that behind that power there is this other power that is ineffable, that is unsaid, but that has a road and often controls the things or the powers that you see. And I think that’s one element that fundamentally unite civil society and the state in Africa, a common subscription to that frame of reference. So that’s the first point. With respect to women, let me go back to one of the first—the initial points I made, which is that the spaces of religious institutions are very anti-women spaces in terms of how they allow women to exercise power. So on the one hand, you would expect that because these are notionally conservative spaces women would have no agency and that whatever agency they have would be diminished. That is often the case. But you also find out that sometimes it is within the parameters of those institutions that women are also able to affirm their own agency and challenge male domination. So the most interesting for me is the ambivalence of female agency within the context of religious institutions. There’s a chapter in my new book, the book that you mentioned, in which I sort of talk about this in my discussion of what I call “useless women.” “Useless women,” women who, according to the male gaze, according to male judgements, are not conforming to the norms that are associated with feminine behavior. So the point in the chapter in the book is to say that actually, within the context of this new religious movement in Africa, women are actually—women are often coming forward and challenging male pastoral power within those institutions. But also to make the point—and this is the paradox—that often that challenge is subverted and undermined not just by males, but also by other women within the context of those institutions. NWANKWOR: And so, if I may just follow up, so I think, Katherine, this is evidence of this strategic alliance, right, between gender and other salient careers by identity, religion, region, and even culture, right? So this strategic alliance maintains a chokehold on women’s ability to—women’s ability to be political agents across the continent. And what Ebenezer—I completely agree with what Ebenezer has just outlined, but I also think that we need to look at the temporality of these changes, and the waves of these changes in women’s agency across the continent in terms of disrupting political, religious, and patriarchal domination, right? So not to go back to precolonial women’s agency, but looking postcolonial and how that has married with—or feed into the women’s movements—the women’s and feminist movements. One would argue that this ongoing “uselessness of women,” so to speak, in quotes, right, as you argued, is a relatively emerging disruptive agency that women have taken upon themselves. And I would also argue that this has been shaped in a large extent by the advancements in information technology, particularly Twitter, Facebook, and all of that, because that has given women this agency and this—and given women this platform to be able to mobilize a defense against these structures. So, yes, we have a number of “useless women,” so to speak, growing out of Pentecostal and patriarchal domination. But we also have to kind of look at the emergence of this destructive agency and how that has been shaped by new advances in information technology. MARSHALL: And that also, of course, brings us to the question not only of distinctions and differences by context, but also how things are changing. What are the disruptive factors. But let’s turn now to questions from members. And, Riki, you’re going to guide us through that process. OPERATOR: Absolutely. Thank you, Katherine. (Gives queuing instructions.) It appears we don’t have any questions at the moment. So, Katherine, if you would like to follow up. MARSHALL: Great. Well, let’s follow up on the challenge that I as just putting to you, and maybe start with Ebenezer. Do you see, as Chiedo does, some of the major disruptions, linked particularly to information technology and to other factors? Including, I would also add, economic ups and downs, and some of the political turmoil that we’re seeing in parts of the continent? OBADARE: Yeah, I do. I mean, so one of the most interesting developments in Nigeria over the last twenty years for me, as a student of civil society, would be the “End SARS” protests of October 2020. For those who may not know about that, that’s the mass protest against police brutality in Nigeria. SARS was the Special Anti-Robbery Squad, that was visiting violence on every—on citizens. So why is that important? So it’s important because if you look at the iconic images from that—from those protests, one—there is one of Aisha Yesufu. The woman was in full hijab but who had the Statue of Liberty posture, basically challenging power and the state and authority, which I thought was quite interesting. But the other thing is that it was actually a group of women—and I’m blocking on their name now—I think it was, like, Nigerian Feminist Movement, something like that. I remember Jack Dorsey led sort of—people started donating money to them after Jack Dorsey brought what they were doing to popular attention. So inasmuch as that was a protest, and this is my point, about the use or the abuse of law enforcement against ordinary citizens, it also then became an opportunity for women themselves to say, hold on, we all suffer. That’s true. But women suffer doubly on account of their being women. So I thought that was really quite interesting. But the other thing is, as we are talking about gender, and to sort of circle back to some of the points that Chiedo made earlier, is that it was also an important moment not just for women but for LGBT individuals, right? And I think that was one element of the protest that hasn’t quite received as much attention as one would imagine that it should. That it was a moment where a few—a handful, but people emboldened by sort of the courage and the energy of the moment, LGBT individuals, who came out and said: It’s true that men are oppressed by law enforcement in Nigeria. It’s true that women are oppressed by law enforcement. Oh, what about us? We suffer untold hardship because we’re LGBT people, or we are perceived to be LGBT people.   Police stop us at random. They abuse us. They brutalize us. So in that context, the use of social media, the mobilization in the context of the opportunities and affordances of new digital spaces, I think women have been among the primary drivers of that. And I think it’s an important part of just the idea of civil society, not just in Nigeria but in other African contexts. MARSHALL: Yeah. I think we’re seeing that also in some of the peace and conflict issues, where there’s some interesting very innovative approaches that bring things together. We do have a question now that’s come in through the chat, from Charles Robertson. So let me read it, and then see who wants to answer it: The power of women leaders among the faith communities in Africa is a force to reckon with. Independent churches led by women are growing fast in Nigeria, Kenya, and even Uganda. While these women leaders may not identify with feminism, how could other women leaders globally inspire this new brand of women leaders to become an enduring and lasting change? I think that’s an interesting question about the leadership—distinctive kinds of leadership coming out of some of the religious traditions. So maybe, Ebenezer, you start. And maybe, Chiedo, you can see what reaction you have. OBADARE: So I agree, they’re absolutely important. And I think this is one of the sort of side benefits of Pentecostalism. To the extent that in doctrine, it’s highly deregulated. Meaning that anybody can just sort of say, I want to become a pastor, and all of that. And many women are embracing the opportunity. So I wrote about, what was the name of the woman again, Mummy G.O., in my blog, about, three or four months ago. But the point I would like to make, which I think is actually the depressing point, is that the fact that you have a woman as leader in a church does not necessarily mean—and you see this—are reminded of this often and again—that it doesn’t mean that the woman necessarily represents the interest of women. Oftentimes, because of the constraints and the strictures of religious spaces themselves, women are often playing other roles that are already predetermined, that are already delineated as masculine roles. So if you think about some of the female pastors, the most influential female pastors, Pentecostal pastors, in Nigeria right now, yes. It’s interesting that they are women. And oftentimes they talk about women’s rights. But most of the time, they operate within the strict confines of roles—the narrative already set by men. So one time actually—I think it’s not helpful to draw a straight line and say because you have a woman in a leadership role within a strict—religious context, that you then have somebody who necessarily represents the interests of women. That’s not always the case. MARSHALL: Chiedo, do you have any comment at this stage on some of these leadership issues? NWANKWOR: Right. So, two things. One, I think we need to also realize, inasmuch as there is a huge opportunity for global women leaders to inspire this brand of women religious leaders, I want us also to acknowledge that this idea of normative division from the West to the South is not—does not always hold true. And I would say, in this case the reverse is actually the case because across Africa, prior to precolonial times, women were in fact the keepers of the faith, right? And so with the disruption of colonialism, there’s been the institutionalization of women’s subordination across all the bodies of power, including the church. So I would say that, yes, there is—there are opportunities for global women leaders to inspire a continuation in this. But it’s also to take a step back to say that this trend has been indigenous to Africa, right? And so it continues. Secondly, just to echo what Ebenezer has said, there’s also a fundamental problem with assumptions around access. Women’s access to our bodies, our power, right? This assumption is that women’s inclusion in these bodies automatically dislodges the norms and regimes, and values and cultures that have set— traditionally set these bodies. Which have been created around this perspective, the male perspective, the male gaze, right? And male benefits. So, for example, in the church, like we said, the idea that women are now assuming pastoral leadership does not mean that their leadership automatically dislodges these dynamics. The same thing in political bodies—in some of our political bodies, right? The assumption that women’s inclusion and women sitting at the table automatically engenders a change in public policy is a bit of a fallacy, right? So that there is a need for sustained advocacy and activism, not just for the women leaders, because onus is not just on the women but on society at large. To continue to sustain advocacy and activism, right, to effect change in these norms and not just the automatic inclusion of women’s presence and the assumption that it does change things. MARSHALL: Right. Oversimplifying gets us into trouble every time. Riki, I think we have a question. OPERATOR: We do. Our next question comes from Jonathan Golden from Drew University. GOLDEN: Hi. Thank you so much. So perfect, just picking right up on the previous comment, because I do think it’s something different to say that there is leadership in separate religious communities, and then—but looking at it, it’s something different to say leadership within an interfaith movement, right? So my question is sort of what are the opportunities for the intersection of Muslim and Christian women, if we’re thinking, say, a Nigerian context or some of the other West African countries in particular, where Muslim and Christian women, and women even of others faiths—there are small Jewish populations in some of these countries as well—can actually find affinities with each other, and build that sort of movement? Because it does seem like there’s a growing interfaith movement, but that still seems to be—not that women don’t participate—but still may be dominated as you were just saying, with the older paradigm. And I also think of the famous example in Liberia, of the peace movement which was clearly an interfaith religious women’s movement, to end the war there. So just looking, what are the opportunities, specifically within an interfaith setting of women’s leadership, and to reach across the religious divide, and connect just as women at this sort of intersection? MARSHALL: Ebenezer, do you want to start on that? OBADARE: Yeah, yeah, sure. I can. It’s a great question. And my take is maybe slightly different. So I know where the question is coming from. So the question is coming from the specifics of particular societies where religious differences are sort of split the social fabric. And this is part of the solution that people are looking for, that if people are sort of holed up in their different religious communities, we must find a way to build bridges so that women or men from a particular religious community will be kept in touch with women or men from another religious community. So that thinking, and I think it’s a fair thing. But that will only work in places where religious identity is the primary identity that people mobilize, right? Because so if you think about the part of Nigeria I come from, which is western Nigeria, Yoruba, you’ll find that there’s a sense in which people’s identity as Yoruba, their ethnic identity, sometimes is—most of the time comes before every other—any other consideration. So you’re a Yoruba first, before you’re a Muslim or you’re a Christian. So the assumption itself that because people subscribe to different religious faiths that they are then in tension and do not connect, that assumption does not exactly work out in everyday life. So there are places where people—the fact that you’re a Christian and a Muslim, you have to sort of remind yourself—like they would be, oh, yeah, I forgot you’re a Muslim, or I forgot you’re a Christian. But the question becomes redundant in communities—and I don’t think this is just a western Nigerian thing—in communities where a master identity, if you will, an overriding cultural identity, supersedes the other kinds of identity. So it’s—I think that’s—that’s worth keeping in mind. I think Katherine is muted. Katherine, we can’t hear you. MARSHALL: Sorry. Chiedo, do you have further reactions on the interfaith or intra-faith, and women’s roles in that ecumenical or interfaith context? NWANKWOR: Yes. And I want to use the back and also the analogy of women’s distinct and different interest in political studies, right? Because at times, these kind of tend to overlap. And it’s to say that, for example, I am doing currently engaged in a project that seeks to explain why women remain marginalized in politics across Africa, right? And so it seeks to explain the intransigence of African—(inaudible)—in political—women’s political maximization. And the argument is that women’s continued marginalization derives from their inability to cross-mobilize, right, across—to mobilize across the various groups. And this is the same thing that the question is asking, is it impossible? Is it possible that women mobilize across the various states? Is it possible that women find common ground even within the distinctness and the differences in theologies and tenets—ideological, religious tenets, that women find commonalities that would bring them together? And like Ebenezer said, yes, absolutely it happens. We have evidence of that across. We have evidence of that in Nigeria as women continue to mobilize against the state. The various million women marches. This has been cross-mobilizations across religious women’s political participation across different parties. And the same thing happens. We have various interstate organizations mobilized by women across Africa. So the idea is, again, that cross-mobilization is impossible in interstate organizations. Again, it is one of the patriarchal narratives that has sought to continue to divide women to ensure that you don’t have this broad-based mobilization that will provide credible threats, right, to include that women are included—meaningful inclusion. MARSHALL: Yeah. There’s some very interesting, dynamic women who are leading interreligious activities both in Africa but also globally, coming from Africa. So the idea that through that means that women can help to transform what’s happening in their own communities. We have one question from—a written question from Celene Ibrahim and then another one coming in. So let’s first take this one: In terms of women’s roles in contemporary Nigerian politics, do you see any notable alliances between Christian-identified organizations and actors, and those who are Muslim-identified? How are Christian-Muslim tensions impacting women’s abilities to be in strategic alliances for political rights and representation? Do you see notable differences between women’s political representation between northern and southern Nigeria? That’s getting right into the specifics, so I guess we’ll throw that to Ebenezer. OBADARE: It’s a good question. It’s also a very complex question. And I think one of the things that I just would remind you of is that while women may have common economic interests, as they often do, they do not necessarily work under common political umbrellas, which I think is their right. And I think it sort of reinforces the point I was making earlier about the heterogeneity of women and why it would be unhelpful to sort of put all women under the same umbrella. So I think we can all say that for the most part women in Nigeria face common challenges. But they’re also divided along regional lines. They’re divided along ethnic lines. And they’re also divided across political lines. So in terms of a common front for women in terms of political representation, I don’t think any exists at the moment. Personally, I’m not even sure we need one, because the last thing you want—you want women often to be able to speak with the common voice who say, take us seriously. But in terms of—take our agency seriously. But in terms of how they approach that, how that breaks down, you also want women—want to give women the freedom to be able to pursue their own. So I’m sort of happy that there isn’t a single party that is accommodating of the interests of women in Nigeria. MARSHALL: Chiedo, do you want to get into the Nigeria complexities? NWANKWOR: Right. So I think the Nigerian case is a rather interesting case study, right? Both for its historical failure, so to speak, to include women. And when I say “failure,” I don’t mean necessarily women’s failure, but just the abysmal low representation of women across Nigeria, and also for the multiplicity of platforms for women’s mobilization across. But I do think that actually there’s been learned lessons, in the three, four decades of women’s attempts to mobilize. And in current times, like we’re saying, women are actually breaking down those walls. And we have a number of national women’s organizations. And I say national because these cut across ethnicities, they cut across religion, they cut across political parties. Because women have come to realize that this fragmentation of women across all these identity matters is, in fact, a strategy to ensure that women remain un-mobilized. Because if women are able to mobilize then they can drive a credible electoral threat that would actually cause political parties and the state to pay them attention. So it’s to say, yes, that, indeed, actually that we have some form of national women’s cross-mobilization on the continent. Now, how effective has that been is another story. MARSHALL: (Laughs.) Riki, do we have other questions coming in? OPERATOR: We have a written question from Dr. Mary Nyangweso. She asks: Can you highlight other challenges women face towards efforts to include gender equality, and especially political representation? Patriarchy is always cited, but it helps to outline implications of patriarchy. MARSHALL: Well, let’s start with Chiedo this time, and then go to Ebenezer. NWANKWOR: Right. So women face a myriad of challenges in accessing political power, particularly across the continent. But we must also realize that women have made dramatic strides, right, in accessing power, despite the odds, right? Despite the hydra-headed constraints, and discrimination, and oppression, women have actually pushed against all these challenges to achieve significance in some places, right? Political leadership. And so it’s sort of we don’t discount actually these achievements and these gender shifts in the composition of formal bodies. This is real. In fact, we know that Rwanda is the first in the world, at 61.3 percent, of women’s political representation in the lower house. And then you have five, six other countries on the continent who have surpassed 40 percent, right? And it’s just so that we know this. However, we still have countries like Nigeria that just has a 3.6 percent representation of women. So, yes, the challenges are myriad. One is with just lack of access to resources, both financial and material resources. And this becomes significant where political machinations and campaigns are finance-heavy, right? So where you have a commodification of elections, finances become key. And when you have women just abysmally reduced in their ability to access these resources, it becomes significant. And then you also have laws, right? You have regulations. You have norms. Part of that, women in the past have really mobilized to get these equality bills into the constitutional amendments, which have failed woefully. And so it’s, one, resources. Two, it’s laws and regulations. As Nigeria has also been unable to get some affirmative action for women’s political participation in the books. And then it’s also continuing social roles, right? Patriarchal ideas of what’s—of who a woman is, right? The woman’s place being in the house, and all of that. And this there intersects with religion, right, to have even greater implications and constraints. So women in the north, this is not to say that you don’t have agency—political agency among women in the north writ large. But it’s to say that in a large extent women in the north, right, find that they are more constrained than women in the south, in terms of political leadership, as a result of this strategic alliance between gender and religion. And I think I’ll leave some of the other parts of the story for Ebenezer to talk about. OBADARE: Thank you. I’ll just add one other element to that, which is access to education. I think this is extremely important. And I was going to talk about northern Nigeria as well. It’s where you have the lowest levels of literacy, the highest fertility rate, and the highest maternal mortality rate, all under the star of conservative Islamist ideology. And I think it’s important to talk about, because at the end of the day what it means is that you continually have generation after generation of women without basic education, without an understanding of how the system works. What you’re assuming is that those women are continually susceptible to the manipulation of men. So access to education, for me, I think is an extremely important thing. And women—the fact that, especially in the northern part of the country, because of conservative Islam, women are continually denied access to education, I think is an extremely important thing that warrants mediation. NWANKWOR: And so just on— MARSHALL: And the age of marriage. NWANKWOR: Right. MARSHALL: Age of marriage is obviously an important issue. NWANKWOR: So I wanted to say that, and violence, right? Gender-based violence. To the extent that that translates to political violence as a separate phenomenon also imposes very serious constraints on women’s access to power across continent, as a result of patriarchy. MARSHALL: I think a lot of good illustrations. Another one that we’ve heard is that women sometimes have an advantage by being basically invisible, or less visible, particularly this applies, I think, to Catholic sisters. But that also deprives them, as you’ve mentioned, of resources. So, Riki, I think you have another question for us. And we’re coming close to the end, so we’ll need to keep it fairly short. OPERATOR: Yes. We have time for one last question. And this question comes from Millicent Akinsulure , whose hand is raised. MARSHALL: Go ahead. AKINSULURE: OK. Can you hear me? OBADARE: Yes, we can. MARSHALL: Yes. AKINSULURE: I am going to ask—I am not a Nigerian, by the way. I’m Sierra Leonean. Have you seen any backlash against the men—I mean, against the women from the male parts against women priests? Because I noticed recently that female priests are rising up. I went to a function in which all the priests were women. And they are accepted by the male, and it’s rising. I just wondered if your studies if you’ve seen any reaction from the side of the male pastors or the men? OBADARE: Thank you. Do you want me to take that, Katherine? MARSHALL: Yes, go ahead. OBADARE: Yeah. So within the context of the Pentecostal churches that I study, I don’t think there has been any pushback, because the place of the men is secure. The leading Pentecostal pastors in the country are all male. They are all well-resourced. They have connections to power. They have transnational connections. They know all the statesmen and women out there. They have bottomless pockets. So there is no—to the extent that those women pastors are there, and that they are doing their own thing, the important thing is that they pose no challenge to the authority of the male pastors. So they are tolerated. MARSHALL: Chiedo, any comment? NWANKWOR: I completely agree. So, women play out—women pastors’ lives are written scripts within churches. You have to play out the script that has been given to you. Anytime you deviate from that script, it’s considered a challenge to the authorities and the status quo as they are. And most often the consequence—the logical consequences is swift and decisive. So that’s why most times you don’t have this backlash, because women stay in their places, even in those leadership roles in churches. MARSHALL: We’re coming very close to the end. So, let’s see, Ebenezer, do you have any final question or thought? And then Chiedo. And then I’m afraid we’ll have to close this fascinating discussion. NWANKWOR: My final thought would be I think it’s extremely interesting that we’re having this conversation. And we’re having it on the International Day of the Girl Child. I think it’s something that everybody should think about. But more important, I want to call our attention—as I did earlier in my preliminary remarks—to what is going on in Iran. Women in Iran are organizing around the banner of women’s life and freedom. Everywhere we are we should support them. We should support them not because they are Iranian women, but because the principles that they are articulating and championing and losing their lives over are the same principles that women in Africa and other places are articulating, championing, and losing their lives over. MARSHALL: Chiedo. NWANKWOR: And so just to add to that, I think it’s also important that as we discuss these identity categories, particularly gender, and how it shapes women’s political mobilization, and the fact that there’s been significant increase in women’s access to these organizations, to these bodies that we also do not forget the fact that we need to move this discussion beyond just numbers, right? And look at continuing to lobby and pressure for a kind of transformative model of leadership that moves just beyond the rhetoric of presence, right, to empowering women in these organizations to actually push for systemic change. To the extent that these changes then become real for ordinary women, for whom these representations are—(inaudible)—so it’s to move the conversation beyond we want more women to not just women. Women, yes, but also principal actors, and to create women’s policy agencies and missionaries, right, and build all these bridges to these women as well as other critical actors in these bodies, to ensure that public policies change. And not just that public policies change, but that there is implementation of the change in public policy so that we close the loop around public change to affect lives. MARSHALL: Well, thank you, both. Those are very strong final statements that, I think, highlight, first of all, the direction that we all are hoping to move in, or determined to move in, but also some of the subtleties and the nuance that takes use beyond platitudes into some of the hearts of the issues, but also the policy implications. So thank you, all. Happy day of the girl child. And hope to see you all again, soon. OBADARE: Thank you. NWANKWOR: Thank you, Kathrine.  
  • West Africa
    CFR Fellows' Book Launch Series: Pastoral Power, Clerical State: Pentecostalism, Gender, and Sexuality in Nigeria by Ebenezer Obadare
    Play
    In Pastoral Power, Clerical State: Pentecostalism, Gender, and Sexuality in Nigeria, Ebenezer Obadare examines the overriding impact of Nigerian Pentecostal pastors on their churches, and how they have shaped the dynamics of state-society relations. The CFR Fellows’ Book Launch series highlights new books by CFR fellows.
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  • Nigeria
    Pastoral Power, Clerical State
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  • Saudi Arabia
    U.S.-Saudi Relations
    Play
    Steven A. Cook, the Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa studies at CFR, and Martin S. Indyk, distinguished fellow at CFR, discuss the future of the U.S.-Saudi relationship and President Biden’s July visit. Laura Trevelyan, anchor of BBC World News America, moderates. Learn more about CFR's Religion and Foreign Policy Program. FASKIANOS: Welcome to the Council on Foreign Relations Religion and Foreign Policy Webinar series. Happy fall, everybody. I am Irina Faskianos, vice president for the National Program and Outreach here at CFR.   As a reminder, this webinar is on the record and the audio, video, and transcript will be made available on CFR’s website, CFR.org, and on the iTunes podcast channel Religion and Foreign Policy. As always, CFR takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. We are delighted to have Laura Trevelyan here to moderate today’s discussion on U.S.-Saudi Relations. Laura Trevelyan is the anchor of BBC World News America. She was the BBC’s UN correspondent from 2006 to 2009, and a political correspondent for BBC News in the United Kingdom, where she began her BBC career reporting from Northern Ireland on the Good Friday Agreement. She has reported on humanitarian and peacekeeping work in Haiti, Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and on many U.S. elections. And she is the author of two books and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.  So I’m going to turn it over to her now to introduce our speakers and moderate the conversation before we go to all of you for your questions and comments. So, Laura, thanks for doing this and over to you.   TREVELYAN: Thank you very much, indeed, Irina. Thank you so much to everybody who is joining this conversation, which I think will also become a discussion. Thank you to the Council for this invitation. So, yes, we’re going to talk today about the future of U.S.-Saudi relations, informed particularly by the light of President Biden’s July visit to the kingdom. And who better to guide us through this discussion than our panelists.   We have Steven Cook. He is the Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa studies, and director of the International Affairs Fellowship for tenured international relations scholars at the Council on Foreign Relations, a columnist at Foreign Policy magazine, and expert on Arab and Turkish politics, as well as U.S.-Middle East policy, and the author of many books.   We’re also joined by Martin Indyk, who’s a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. He served as the U.S. special envoy, of course, for the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations from 2013 to 2014. He was also a U.S. ambassador to Israel, an advisor to President Clinton, a member of the National Security Council. Also author of numerous books.   Now, Steven and Martin coauthored a Council Special Report on the subject of U.S.-Saudi relations—which, if you haven’t read it, I would thoroughly recommend it—and they make the case in it for a new U.S.-Saudi strategic compact. Now, they wrote that ahead of President Biden’s—or, around the time of President Biden’s visit. So we can talk about what they’re suggesting there and how it’s all worked out. But first of all, I would just—before we get to the future of U.S.-Saudi relations, because the past informs the present, we’re going to start with the past. And I should say that at about twenty-five past 1:00, I will end my discussion with Steven and Martin and open up the floor for questions from all of you.    But first of all, Steven, I’d just like to ask you, I found this really so interesting, the backdrop that you lay out, to the, if you call it, a close if uneasy relationship for some three-quarters of a century between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. But in the beginning, it was all about oil, wasn’t it?   COOK: That’s quite right. First of all, thank you so much, Laura, for presiding over this session. And thanks to everybody who’s called in. And it’s great to be with my coauthor, Martin Indyk, who is just an accomplished and skilled diplomat. And he used those skills getting this—getting this report out. So was extremely, extremely helpful to us. Indeed, the relationship has been essentially based on, first, America’s commercial interests in the Gulf, and in particular in Saudi Arabia, dating back to the 1930s. And then after 1971, with the British withdrawal east of Suez, the United States became increasingly involved in the Persian Gulf. And the prime directive, the prime reason why the United States was so—became so directly involved over the course of between 1971 up through 1991, and then on through the subsequent thirty years, is primarily because of oil. The Middle Eastern oil was critical to the reconstruction of Europe after World War II. Seventy-five percent of the oil used in the Marshall Plan came from the Persian Gulf. The vast majority of it was from Saudi Arabia. And in the decade of the 1950s, stretching in the 1960s, about 85 percent of Europe’s oil came directly from Saudi Arabia. The idea that you needed to have a functioning capitalist West to insulate Europe—and the stability of Europe was of critical importance to the United States—you needed to have Middle Eastern oil to have successful economies in Western Europe. And thus was the American interest in Saudi Arabia and the continued free flow of energy resources not just from that region but from—not just from that country but from the region more generally. In exchange, the United States increasingly provided security to Saudi Arabia. And that’s really the basis of the relationship. My former colleague Rachel Bronson wrote a book in which she explained how the Saudis played a critical role during the Cold War in their own anti-communism. But at its basis, this was an oil for security relationship. In recent years it’s been oil for security for weapons relationship.  But once again, that is a function of the fact that Saudi Arabia has been such an important producer, the swing producer, of oil and, as we’ve seen most recently, the one country that had the ability to produce more oil relatively quickly and cheaply to make a difference in the global oil market, and subsequently what Americans pay at the pump. The Saudi leadership chose not to go that route, however, despite President Biden’s request, but we’ll get into that. TREVELYAN: We certainly will get into that. So thank you for that backdrop. And, Martin, if you could just bring us up to date, perhaps, and just tell us why you and Steven wanted to lay out the case for a new U.S.-Saudi strategic compact? And if you could sum up what that is. INDYK: Thank you, Laura, for hosting us today. The basic compact that Steven described, which was oil for security, is one that has essentially be shaken by recent developments in U.S. and Saudi policies. The United States essentially drawing down in the region, ending its involvement in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that were seen to have been highly counterproductive, focusing on more pressing geostrategic threats from Russia—an aggressive Russia in Europe, and a rising China in Asia, becoming, in the views of the Saudi leadership, a much less reliable guarantor of its security. And on the other side, the United States, looking at a new leadership in Saudi Arabia under Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, and seeing a young, brash, ruthless, headstrong leader more likely to get Saudi Arabia and the United States into trouble than to serve as a reliable partner. Taking his country and the rest of the GCC states into a war in Yemen that was highly destructive of Yemen and caused a dramatic humanitarian crisis and worsened Saudi Arabia’s security situation. A siege of Qatar—neighboring Qatar which broke apart the GCC and essentially pushed Qatar into the hands of a waiting Iran. All of these things and more, particularly the way in which MBS—as he came to be known—was treating his own dissenters within Saudi Arabia. In particular his ordering of the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, the Saudi dissident journalist.  All kind of combine to raise real questions on the part of the Saudis in terms of the reliability of the United States, and on the part of the United States in terms of the reliability of the Saudis. And all of this comes at a time when the oil market is in a particular tight situation, when the expectation that the world would no longer need as much oil because we were shifting to sustainable energy sources, turned out to be wrong, that calculation. And for the next thirty years, the expectation is we’re going to need more of Saudi Arabia’s oil, not less. And on the other side, the rising threat from Iran and the sense of insecurity that the Saudis felt led to a situation which we both need each other to be responsible partners, and yet we’re not. And that’s why we felt the need for a reinvention of the relationship and a new understanding and a new strategic compact. TREVELYAN: OK. But of course, Steven, a major problem with this issue or this idea of the need for a new strategic compact is that, as Martin was saying there, the crown prince has shown himself to be a ruthless leader. The U.S. intelligence agencies concluded with high confidence that he ordered the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. So this is the backdrop against which President Biden goes to visit the kingdom in July, the famous fist bump takes place. Steven, what did President Biden get for that visit? COOK: Well, not much, it turns out. I think that there were expectations going into the visit that both—American officials publicly and privately intimated that there would be some sort of deal with regard to the oil markets. In exchange, the United States would work and help to enhance Saudi security and become involved directly in ensuring Saudi security, in some way. Not necessarily providing an American security guarantee, but nevertheless would be, after years in which the Saudis had questioned American commitment, that the United States would provide evidence that it remains committed to Saudi security. In the end, the Saudis did not end up pumping more oil. They announced in August a very modest increase of about a hundred thousand barrels. And they’ve actually announced just the other day that they are going to reduce by another hundred thousand barrels. They keep saying that this is based on their assessment of where the market is, and that they are not going to be dictated by the politics, or the geopolitics, in which the United States has sought to isolate the Russians. Russia has become an important partner of Saudi Arabia’s in what’s called OPEC+. So what you get after the president’s visit is, as I said, a miniscule increase in oil, an American commitment in the form of sending Patriot missile batteries to Saudi Arabia, further discussion of security cooperation between the two countries, and agreements to cooperate on a variety of what I think colloquially we would call small ball type stuff. Cooperating on 5G and 6G, the next generation of cell. I think perhaps the most important thing coming out of the visit, and something that was sort of baked into it ahead of time, was the Saudi agreement to allow Israeli airliners to traverse Saudi airspace. Not just going through Bahrain and UAE, but traveling to Asia, an important step towards normalization. Everything else doesn’t make a lot of sense to me why the president made the trip. He did go and it wasn’t just a meeting with Saudi officials. He participated in what’s called the GCC+3 meeting, the plus three being Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan, as a way of planting the flag and demonstrating to America’s partners in the region that it remained in the region and that it wasn’t leaving. This was an important statement about great power competition in the region, but still I think the overall effect has not been what the administration had wanted. And I think people are looking back and wondering whether the trip was really worth it. We haven’t seen much change in the policies of Saudi Arabia, or other countries in the region, to be quite honest. TREVELYAN: Well, in fact, OPEC actually just announced that they’re going to cut oil production, because it seems like they like having oil at $100 a barrel. But, Martin, if I could just turn to you and also the Saudis recently jailed a woman for her tweets for forty-five years—tweets in which she appears to have criticized the crown prince. You wrote in your paper, perhaps prophetically, “If bin Salman comes to believe he now has sufficient leverage to force the Biden administration to accept him as he is, he may have little incentive to act more responsibly.” Do you think you were right? INDYK: Regrettably, yeah. I think that beyond that statement we felt strongly that if the Biden administration did not try for this grand bargain, for this greater understanding, that the—whatever the president did would be short-lived and unsustainable. Because all of the problems have effectively been swept under the rug, instead of dealing with them. And so therefore there’s going to be a renewed deterioration, exacerbated by the sense of disappointment on the side of the United States because, as you pointed out, Laura, not only are they not increasing production, OPEC is now decreasing production. (Coughs.) Excuse me. Which is, by the way, a direct contravention of the private assurance that the crown prince gave the president that Saudi Arabia would increase production by some $200,000 a month, starting in October and going through the end of the year. And that’s critically important for the overall effort by the United States to deal with Russia, as we head into winter, as European allies critical to the support of Ukraine are facing a really tough energy situation as a result of the tactics of Vladimir Putin—cutting off the gas, driving the price of gas through the roof. It’s really unhelpful that the Saudis are not prepared to live up to the commitments that they made in private during the president’s visit. That’s one problem. Second problem is that rather than seeing the willingness of President Biden to go there and, as you pointed out, fist bump the crown prince, as an act of kind of reconciliation and willingness to put the past statements about Saudi Arabia as a pariah state behind the president, and try to build a new, positive relationship. Instead of viewing that in a way that it was intended, the Saudis, starting with the crown prince but in their press, have been lauding the fact that Biden came on his knees and MBS is back, and there’s nothing to be done about his—(inaudible). It’s just that United States has recognized the wrongness of its ways. And so I think that the basic basis has now been laid for an even more serious misunderstanding between Saudi Arabia and the United States, at a time when we really need Saudi Arabia to be harmonious with our efforts, particularly when it comes to the impact of energy on the war in Ukraine. TREVELYAN: Right. I mean, it’s, like, three-dimensional chess. There are so many things—so many strands coming together, so many moves happening at the same time. And in your paper, you talked about the relationship with Iran as being something, in a way, that the two countries could come together on, because Iran is historically an enemy of Saudi Arabia, and the U.S. is trying to contain it. But, Steven, how do you assess the state of these talks to revive the Iran nuclear deal? And what do you think the Saudis are making of that, and how that plays into, really, how little they’ve done since President Biden’s visit? COOK: Yeah, before I get into that a little bit, I just want to add a further complication to Martin’s comments. And that is, is what makes Saudi Arabia so difficult to kind of get their minds around and figure out a way forward is the—is you have this crown prince who is, as has been described, brash, impulsive, even—(laughs)—I’ve heard people call him a sociopath. Yet, he has done a number of revolutionary things within Saudi Arabia that, absent the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, absent the intervention in Yemen, absent the blockade of Qatar, absent his reluctance to help the United States now, people would be singing his praises.  This is someone who has reined in the religious police and the clerical establishment. Is really trying to force a change in the way in which Islam is practiced both in Saudi Arabia and his emissaries telling Muslims around the world that they need to obey the laws within their countries. That’s, I think, a pretty radical thing for a Saudi prince to do. Obviously, women can drive. Women are all over the place in Saudi Arabia, in comparison to twenty years ago. He’s unleashed young people to enjoy the things that they’ve come to enjoy when they go to school outside of Saudi Arabia. These things are important. And when you think about Saudi futures, there’s a piece of the MBS agenda that you can’t think of a better Saudi future. And then there’s a piece that there— TREVELYAN: So long as you don’t dare tweet about him. COOK: Precisely, precisely. And then there’s this other piece of it where it’s worse than it’s ever been. Saudi Arabia is truly a police state with an impulsive leader, which leads to a lot of danger. And I think this really complicates things. Part of that complication is the relationship—and is the—how the United States should relate to Saudi Arabia. And part of that is Iran. And the Saudis have built up a narrative over the course of two decades that suggests that the United States would like to replace Saudi Arabia with Iran as its primary interlocutor in the region. And going back to everything from the invasion of Iraq, which vassalized Iraq to Iran, to the unwillingness of the Obama administration to intervene in Syria, to the Arab uprisings which, especially when it came to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, the belief that the Obama administration sort of helped show Mubarak the door, which in turn made Egypt neutral in the region, all the way including Yemen, and the Iranian attacks on Abqaiq and Khurais in the summer of 2019, in which the United States didn’t respond. Take all those things together. In isolation, the United States had good reasons for doing what it did. But taken together, the Saudis have built a narrative that the United States is not committed to Saudi security or regional stability, and is going to, through the JCPOA, leave Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states at the mercy of the Iranians. Now, they have been opposed to the original JCPOA, they’re opposed to getting back into the JCPOA. Not necessarily on the nuclear issue, on the sanctions relief piece of things. But of course, at the moment Ayatollah Khamenei is helping them out by being resistant to the United States’ efforts to get back into the agreement. TREVELYAN: And yet, Martin, I read today that U.S. military command responsible for the Middle East and Iran is developing plans to open a facility in Saudi Arabia that will be based on testing new technology to combat the threat from unmanned drones. Now, as we know, there’s been a lot happening recently, a lot of back and forth with the Iranians and their drones. So do you think, Martin, it’s possible that despite maybe the lack of progress that we see, or we think we see since President Biden’s visit, there is something going on in terms of military cooperation against Iraq, particularly when it comes to drones? INDYK: Yeah, I think that’s true. The military cooperation has continued, even in the worst days of the Obama administration’s relationship with the crown prince. The military cooperation was there over Yemen, actually, even more so than today. So the fact that there’s military cooperation doesn’t really get at all the other things that we’re discussing here. There’s a minimum level of common interest here on the security play. The Saudis have, as you alluded to, a big problem with Iranian drones. They’ve been used by the Houthis—or were up until the truce that was negotiated in Yemen—they’d been used by the Houthis to attack on a daily basis Saudi targets, including civilian targets. And of course, there was this Iranian attack that Steven referred to, which took out 50 percent of Saudi Arabia’s oil production, albeit only for a couple of days. And the United States did not have a good answer, shockingly, to the kind of techniques that have been used and the technology that was used in those attacks. So, hence, the effort to try to come up with some answers beyond the standard Patriot air defense systems that we’ve put into Saudi Arabia. And so I think on the—but I regard it as a tactical thing. On a tactical level, we have a common interest in dealing with the threat from Iran. And that manifests itself in these kinds of things. The other day, the United States, in an effort to show Iran that it had a serious military option, flew B-52s with their nuclear bombs across Europe from—across—excuse me—the Middle East from England to—essentially up to Iranian airspace. So the last phase of that trip, they were escorted by Saudi fighters. And so that’s a manifestation of the way in which the two countries still work together. And I don’t want to suggest that on the security level, on the arms sales level, there isn’t a lot of kind of continued business as usual. But there is something fundamentally wrong with the relationship that if not fixed is going to make it very difficult for us to pursue our strategic interests effectively in the region, and for Saudi Arabia to do the same. TREVELYAN: All right, now before we open up to the Q&A, I’d just like to ask both of you if you could—because we’re running out of time already, just in forty-five seconds just to sum up your hopes for the U.S.-Saudi relationship, if you can—if you can do that, and throw it forward. So, Steven, what would you like to see in this relationship? COOK: Well, there’s what I’d like to see in the relationship and what I expect to see in the relationship. What I’d like to see in the relationship is what Martin and I wrote, about a new strategic compact, which would take care of the issues that divide the two countries. What I think will happen is something else we wrote about, which is a realist rapprochement, which will essentially sweep the issues that divide us under the gain for short-term gain, or the promise of short-term gain, but those problems will come back very quickly to haunt the two governments. TREVELYAN: Martin, what do you expect to see? And do you think that the Saudis are looking ahead and perhaps even thinking President Trump could return? INDYK: For sure that’s part of their calculation. I think that they would hope for that and wish it would come about. But they can’t be sure of it. I think that given the way that the visit went, and the way things are now developing, I’m afraid that there’ll be a continued deterioration in the relationship. What I would like to see is that both sides recognize that they need to find a new way of doing business together. And that the crown prince needs to respect American interests, treat his people better, act with greater circumspection and deliberation. And in response, the United States needs to become a more reliable security partner to Saudi Arabia in a very difficult strategic environment. TREVELYAN: Diplomatically put. Martin Indyk and Steven Cook, thank you so much for that discussion. And now I’d like to open it up to the floor for questions. And I think, Christina you’re going to just explain how that works. OPERATOR: I’ve got it. (Gives queuing instructions.) Our first question comes from Sheikh Ubaid from the Muslim Peace Coalition. TREVELYAN: Thank you, Sheikh. Do go ahead. UBAID: Thank you for taking my question. In the past Soviet Union was a major nuclear threat. Therefore, we put up with these dictators in the Middle East, and they were not as tyrannical as MBS. Now that threat is gone, and China is more pragmatic and does not rattle the nuclear saber. So why do we put up with MBS and also his counterpart in this, UAE? I mean, they just do superficial reforms, just like allowing wrestling and mixing of genders while they’re putting female activists and independent Islamic scholars in jail. Because continuing to support him will further alienate the Arab and Muslim masses, and—which is not a good thing with our rivalry with China. China is persecuting Muslims, so this is an ideal opportunity for the U.S. to win back the Muslim support that it had in the ’50s and early ’60s. MBS also decided that he could support the Israeli and Indian government, as well as have friendship with China, so that he gets the support that he—they used to get from the U.S. in the past militarily and that he would be free to— to repress his people. But those factors should be in—don’t you think should be in our analysis of the situation, so that we win the Arab and Muslim street and not just rely on these dictators who can be overthrown anytime? TREVELYAN: Thank you for that question. Martin, would you like to respond? INDYK: Well, Sheikh Ubaid is right that we need to take account of the street, such as it is, in the Arab and Muslim world, and that’s a very difficult thing to do. First of all, is it really one street? Probably not. There are a lot of different streets with different attitudes across the Muslim world, and different priorities. And secondly, there’s a kind of structural problem, which I’m sure he’s aware of—(laughs)—and lives with, which is a kind of structural antagonism between the Muslim world and the United States, fundamental misunderstanding on both sides of what the other’s intentions are. And there’s so much water under the bridge in this regard that it’s very hard to find ways—effective ways of rebuilding the trust and understanding between these two very large communities. And I say this as somebody who, for many years, promoted a U.S.-Islamic world dialogue, sort—all sorts of ways, both political and economic and cultural, to try to build those bridges. And it just—not that we didn’t have some success, but it’s a very difficult thing to do. So the bottom line is that I don’t think that we can—we, the United States—can or should run its foreign policy on the basis of an applause meter in the Muslim world. I think that we need to explain ourselves better, but essentially if we don’t pursue our own interests in a wise and effective way then when—it won’t work.  Barack Obama gave a famous speech in Cairo at the beginning of his presidency in an attempt to reach out to the Muslim world. By the end of his presidency, America’s standing in the Muslim world was at an all-time low, in the single digits in terms of Muslim public opinion. So best of intentions don’t seem to do it. I really think we’re better off being clear, being honest, and promoting our interests—which include better relations with the Muslim world but cannot be defined by that objective. TREVELYAN: Martin, thank you very much. Of course, you served as the U.S. special envoy for the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, amongst your many other roles. So you know of what you speak. Can we take the next question, please? OPERATOR: The next question comes from Sarah Leah Whitson, from Democracy for the Arab World Now. TREVELYAN: Thanks, Sarah. Do go ahead. WHITSON: Hi, Martin. Hi, Steven. I wanted to just push a little bit more for you to articulate the security interests or the interests of the United States that you now advocate. Trumping, I guess, other considerations, including compliance with U.S. laws on providing weapons to abusive governments, as well as overlooking or putting aside the war in Yemen, the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, the continued incarceration of women. Is it really just the need for Saudi Arabia to provide oil, which it’s not doing? You, Martin, have advocated for a withdrawal of the U.S.—a decrease of the U.S.’ military commitments in the United States. And I think Biden started on that path but hasn’t continued it.  So I really wonder what’s changed? Why are you now again advocating for the United States to provide security guarantees to essentially a dictatorship, and a dictatorship royal coterie in exchange for oil, which Saudi Arabia is not increasing output for? And if it’s just oil why not just lift sanctions on Iran and Venezuela and Russia, if that’s the most important consideration? TREVELYAN: Yeah. So, Steven, why should the U.S. provide security guarantees to a dictatorship, as Sarah put it? COOK: Yeah. It’s a—I think it’s a—I think it’s a good question. I think it’s something that the Biden administration has clearly wrestled with. You have to give the Biden administration some amount of credit here for its desire to be consistent with the president’s campaign rhetoric, and what it did when it came into office. I think there’s a couple of things that had made that extremely difficult. And that is the lack of anticipation of geopolitical shock and domestic political shocks, coming in the form—and resulting in the dramatic run-up in the price of gasoline for American consumers. And as principled as perhaps Joe Biden would like to have been, he’s also a politician who would like to be reelected in 2024 and would like Democrats to be reelected in 2022. That, more than anything, the price of gas impinged upon those two important goals. There is—there is political—parochial political interests that go into our national interest. And that is what essentially drove the Biden administration to dispatch a number of envoys to Riyadh, to seek the Saudi cooperation in pumping more oil, that eventually drove the president to Riyadh. He did not meet with success, of course. But the view that Saudi Arabia can be helpful is not invalid. It’s just that the crown prince doesn’t necessarily want to help, perhaps looking forward to 2024, and a return of Donald Trump and an administration with which they felt they could deal more easily with. From my own perspective, I think that the idea that we can drive politics in Saudi Arabia, or we can drive politics in any country of the region, when leaders determine that what they’re doing is in their interest or is, in fact, existential, is difficult for the United States, given the fact that we don’t have the kind of resources to alter the interests or have the kind of leverage that we might imagine that we have in order to fundamentally alter the politics of a country. It's outrageous, what MBS has done at home. The country is, in some ways, more open than it’s ever been, but MBS is ruling like a—more like his grandfather than his father or his uncle, in that he is accumulating all of the power and he is adding to that power by leveraging all kinds of modern technologies in order to create a surveillance state. I’m not convinced that there’s much that we can do about that, as long as MBS is content—intends to continue to accumulate and centralize power. I haven’t really changed my position on that, but I do think that Saudi Arabia remains important. As Martin pointed out, in the energy transition we’re going to be more reliant on Saudi oil for the time being. If we don’t want to be complicit with Saudi Arabia, then it’s incumbent upon all of us to pursue things like a more rational energy policy. It’s incumbent upon us to think about things like lifting sanctions on a country like Venezuela, something that the Biden administration has very much sought—pursued. Lifting sanctions on Iran, something that the Biden administration has also pursued, through the JCPOA. These are not ideas that are revolutionary ideas. But the problems, particularly when it comes to Iran, lies in Tehran, not necessarily in Washington. TREVELYAN: Right. And, Martin, Sarah was asking why are you proposing essentially security guarantees for a country that has trampled on human rights? INDYK: Yeah. And I think that we make very clear in the paper that all of these issues—especially human rights issues—need to be addressed if there’s to be the kind of compact that we are recommending. And not just the human rights issues. It’s the issue of Yemen, of the relationship with Israel and, of course, what to do about Iran and its threatening behavior and hegemonic ambitions in the region. So all of these issues, in our view, need to be addressed in a broader understanding of where our common interests lie and what we would like or need—not like, but need—to see from Saudi Arabia in order to justify the kind of commitment to their security that we are recommending. So far from sweeping this under the rug, that’s exactly what we’re arguing against. Is not to ignore those issues, but to deal with them openly, and reach and understanding with MBS, the crown prince, about what it is that we expect him to do and what he can expect from us if he does it. So I think that’s the key here. It’s not to ignore it, but to address it. TREVELYAN: Thanks very much. Can we have the next question, please? OPERATOR: Absolutely. Our next question comes from Jim Prince from The Democracy Council.  He writes: What is the likelihood that Saudi Arabia joins the Abraham Accords? Can you discuss the status and future of Saudi-Israeli relations? TREVELYAN: Ah, indeed. So, Martin, what do you think? What is the likelihood that Saudi Arabia joins that accord? INDYK: Well, eventually they will. But they’ll do it on their own timetable, which means not anytime soon. We see them doing things which we call small steps. Steven referred to it earlier, the overflight rights. It’s actually a very small step. They allowed the Israelis to fly to Bahrain and Abu Dhabi, Dubai after the Abraham Accords were signed, as their way of signaling that they basically support it, but they’re really not going to do much on their own.  They did do this deal in the Red Sea, where two islands that had previously been held by Egypt were handed over to Saudi Arabia by Egypt. And that required a security understanding with Israel, because under the peace treaty between Israel and Egypt those islands were in Egypt’s hands, and Egypt had to commit to freedom of navigation in the Red Sea for Israeli ships and Israeli cargos going through there. And the Saudis had to take that on. If you like, that’s a kind of security normalization that the Saudis agreed to. But it’s very low-profile and not likely to get any real attention. Saudis basically are not the same as these small countries like the UAE and Bahrain. They have a large population that’s been brought up under the anti-Israel, even antisemitic diet for decades. And they are not going to be easily turned around. And that is why the crown prince is consistent in saying that he needs to see progress on the Palestinian issue before he takes any big steps towards normalization. And because the Palestinian issue is stuck in the mud and doesn’t look like it’s going to move forward in any positive way for some time to come, I think that it’s going to take some time before we see a breakthrough between Saudi Arabia and Israel.  And this has nothing to do with a lack of desire on the part of the Biden administration to support the Abraham Accords because they were somehow a Trump administration breakthrough, and therefore Biden doesn’t want to do it. He’s worked it hard. He’s pushed hard in various directions to try to advance the Abraham Accords because it’s a good thing. And it serves the cause of peace and it serves the cause of American interests in the region to have these countries working with Israel. But Saudis are going to be, as always, the caboose on the train, not the engine. TREVELYAN: Thanks very much for that. Can we have the next question, please? OPERATOR: Our next written question comes from Sarah Robinson from Pacific Lutheran Theological Seminary. She writes: Has Saudi Arabia signaled concern about climate changes in their region, such as intensified drought and excessive heat and/or their potential for collaboration toward alternative energy opportunities? TREVELYAN: Interesting question about an oil producer. Steven, what do you think? COOK: Well, there has been a lot of talk in the Gulf broadly, but also Saudi Arabia, about climate change. And I think that there are aspects of Crown Prince Salman’s Vision 2030 which recognizes that there’s going to become a time where oil is not going to become important, and that climate change is going to affect—climate change is going to affect the region. But like many things that have happened with Saudi Arabia, there’s lots of big talk about things and much more fanfare when it comes to certain issues, and not a lot of action. The Saudis obviously are committed to continuing to be the most important producer of oil, and a swing producer of oil in the world. And while neighbors of Saudi Arabia, Iraq—national intelligence estimate on climate that came out almost a year ago identified Iraq as one of the five most vulnerable countries to climate change. Or there are parts of the UAE that will become uninhabitable in the coming decades. The Saudis, despite talk of climate change, haven’t really signaled significant urgency to the problem. They’re much more focused on the crown prince’s flights of fancy, like, a new airline, things along those lines, than really tackling the issue of climate change. Which is affecting Saudi Arabia and the rest of the region, which is a water-scarce and very, very hot region. TREVELYAN: Thanks very much for that. And can we have the next question, please? OPERATOR: Our next question comes from David Greenhaw from Naples United Church of Christ. He asks: To what extent can Saudi Arabia play an increasing role in humanitarian relief? For instance, in Pakistan flooding? TREVELYAN: Well, I guess one would also have to ask about Yemen, and what they’re doing with the situation there, which is a humanitarian catastrophe, which is, of course, related. Martin, perhaps you could address that question. INDYK: Sure. I’ll talk about Yemen. Maybe Steve can talk more broadly about it. But in Yemen, there is a truce now. And while the Saudis have been responsible for this humanitarian disaster, they’re now getting on the right side in terms of allowing and encouraging flights to and from Sana’a to outside of the place, namely to Jordan. And, more importantly, allowing goods to flow in through the port of Hodeida, that they had essentially been blocking. And so the situation is improving on the ground, and Saudis have come to see that’s in their interests to go on the right side of this. So they are, I think, for the time being, doing the right thing. The problem there is the Houthis, on the other side, who control the northern part of Yemen and the capital, Sana’a. Really don’t have a great stake in a truce. And as a result, we’re seeing them undertake actions that are against the truce—military actions. And I fear that over time, unless the United States and the United Nations can succeed in moving the parties to a more stable ceasefire and negotiation of the political differences, it’s going to start to unravel. And then we’ll be back in the soup again and the humanitarian crisis will rear its very ugly head. So I think there’s some urgency in trying to seize the moment here, and trying to take advantage of Saudi Arabia’s understanding that it’s in its interests to try to end the war and get the hell out of Yemen, before the Houthis disrupt the whole process again. TREVELYAN: And if we leave the question of Yemen to one side for a second, Steven, if you could address the question. And he was asking if the Saudis could play a role in humanitarian relief in, for example, Pakistan, where there’s been this terrible, terrible flooding? COOK: Yeah. Look, the Saudi relationship with Pakistan is historic and deep. There’s been some problems with Pakistanis in recent years, as the Indians have made a play to become a strategic partner to Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Gulf. But I think it’s clear with the kind of humanitarian needs that Pakistan has, Saudi Arabia will be providing at least monetary assistance to Pakistan. Just a quick before— I think Pakistan’s problems are well, well beyond Saudi. A third of the country remains underwater. This requires a global—a global effort. And I think, thus far, we haven’t seen much of it. But certainly, Saudi Arabia, flush with oil revenues, can be helpful there. Just one more point on Yemen. I think that the way in which Yemen has often been portrayed in the news media has been rather uncomplicated to actually quite a complicated situation. And I just want to echo what Martin said about the Houthis being the ones who are—seem intent on disrupting things. The Houthis win by not losing and by the Saudis continuing to be sucked into the conflict. Therefore, they do have a significant interest in prolonging the conflict. I think the Saudis obviously, by intervening in another country’s civil war thinking that they can prevail in a number of weeks or months, made a huge mistake. And all of the things that they feared have come true, as a result of their intervention.  But now they are seeking to get out and have been successful in helping to provide humanitarian assistance, whereas the Houthis have—as I said, don’t have a strong interest. Having met with the Houthis, these are not—these are not a nice group of people. And one can imagine them wanting to prolong this conflict to press their advantage. TREVELYAN: Thanks for that. And do we have any more questions? We have just a couple of minutes left. OPERATOR: Yes. Our next question comes from James Patton from the International Center for Religion and Diplomacy.  He writes: There has been a palpable decline in the social, political, and educational influence of the conservative ulema in the kingdom. One imagines this is causing some unseen frustration. What direction will this take, based on your observations? Is there a threat of significant backlash? TREVELYAN: Well, it’s an excellent question. I’ll ask it of both of you. Martin, would you like to go first? INDYK: I’d rather Steven went first. (Laughter.) COOK: I think what happens within the clerical establishment in Saudi Arabia is a lot like what happens with the royal family. Behind the scenes, it’s very hard to divine precisely what’s going on there. But I think that the possibility of a backlash is something that I think analysts must keep as a potential outcome, should MBS be challenged in a serious way.  One of the allies of a challenger will be the cleric—the conservative clerical establishment, which, you’ve seen, obviously gets its standing reduced dramatically over the course of MBS’s rise to power. And looking over—out over many decades in which he will likely be the king, they are faced with a diminished role. So if he gets into trouble, if there’s a significant challenge from within the royal family, one can imagine the clerical establishment—or, factions of the clerical establishment joining with opposition to MBS. TREVELYAN: Thanks for that. Yeah, go on. INDYK: I’d just make a broader point here about this delicate, high-wire act that MBS is walking. And that is that he is a modernizing reformer, dragging his country from the seventh century, sixth century, into the twenty-first century in terms of social change. It’s dramatic. It’s having a profound effect internally. The number of women, I’m told, that have now entered the workforce is 25 percent, which is a huge jump and has a profound impact on cultural and social relations in the kingdom. And so in a sense, we should all want him to succeed. And not just for the sake of the people of Saudi Arabia, but because Saudi Arabia is a leader in the Muslim world, because the king is the custodian of the two holy mosques of Mecca and Medina. What happens in Saudi Arabia will have a profound ripple effect across the world—the Muslim world. And so if he succeeds in reconciling Islam with modernity, it’ll be profoundly important. And so we should want him to succeed, because the consequences of failure are really—could be quite profound. But on the other hand, that cannot be used as an excuse to give him a pass on the other things that he does that are egregious. And we’ve discussed them all. So there’s a tension there. And it’s very hard to navigate. But if there’s any one point that I’d like to make, we tried to make it in our paper, is that just by kind of whistling past the graveyard, by ignoring all those things, sweeping them under the rug, is not going to help him, Saudi Arabia, or the United States, or the Muslim world. And we need to have a mature and sensitive conversation that leads to a serious understanding about the way in which the crown prince moves his nation forward, so that all of mankind can benefit. TREVELYAN: Well, I think that seems a very fitting point to leave our discussion. Martin and Steven, thank you so much for your contribution. Thanks to all the questioners. The dilemma there for the Biden administration, how do they deal with someone who Martin described as modernizing and reforming and moving his country forward, yet also someone who jails his opponents, most recently a woman deemed an opponent simply because she tweeted to her followers things that could possibly be construed as being critical of MBS, or so it appears. So thank you to all of you for joining, and I’ll hand it over to Irina to say goodbye. FASKIANOS: Thank you so much, Laura, for moderating this discussion, and to all of you. We encourage you to follow Steven Cook’s work on Twitter at @stevenacook. And Martin Indyk’s work at @martin_indyk. You can also follow Laura Trevelyan at @lauratrevelyan. And please follow CFR’s Religion and Foreign Policy Program on Twitter at @cfr_religion. We will be sending you all a link to the video and transcript. And please do read the Council’s special report that Dr. Cook and Ambassador Indyk authored. We included that in the Zoom access information, and we’ll include it again in the follow-up note. So thank you all again for this terrific discussion. And we wish you a very good rest of the day. INDYK: Thank you. TREVELYAN: Thanks very much. Bye. FASKIANOS: Bye-bye (END)  
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