Can Brunei Copy the Gulf States and Reform While It Still Has a Chance?

With its oil reserves—the country’s largest source of revenue—set to run out in about 30 years, the sultanate of Brunei Darussalam recently has begun to implement major changes to its economic model and foreign relations, inspired by the efforts at transformation of several Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.  Those Gulf states have created far-reaching plans to diversify their economies , to settle some regional disputes in order to boost trading, and to open up socially (to a very modest extent) to attract tourism, foreign residents, and skilled workers.

The strategy is working, with economic bumps and some serious social challenges, for Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, but these are regional giants and still have much larger reserves than Brunei, allowing them more flexibility to make huge plans, see some fail, and face a degree of social backlash. Can it work for tiny, historically conservative Brunei, with a population of less than 500,000 people? For more on Brunei’s efforts, please see my new piece in World Politics Review.