Elisabeth Harding

CFR Staff

Elisabeth Harding

Analyst, Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies

Elisabeth Harding is the analyst for the Greenberg Center of Geoeconomic Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). Before joining CFR, she was a research associate at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. She holds bachelor's degrees in economics and international studies from Pepperdine University and a master's degree in international politics from Trinity College Dublin.

RealEcon

Steel Productivity has Plummeted Since Trump’s 2018 Tariffs

Studies have shown that tariffs depress productivity in protected industries. U.S. steel is a case in point.

Post by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding March 6, 2025 Geo-Graphics
Economics

Dollar Undervalued on CFR Mini Mac Index

The dollar is slightly undervalued on CFR’s Mini Mac Index. Will Trump’s tariff policies send it soaring?

Post by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding February 12, 2025 Geo-Graphics
Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies

The Growth Hit From Trump’s Tariffs

Trump’s tariffs will hit U.S. growth. We estimate the impact over time.

Post by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding February 6, 2025 Geo-Graphics
Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies

Where Will Trump’s Tariff Revenues Go? His First Term Provides a Big Clue.

Nearly all of Trump’s first-term China tariff revenue went to compensate American farmers facing retaliatory tariffs. Expect a replay in 2025.

Post by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding February 3, 2025 Geo-Graphics
Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies

Why the Fed Should Stop Forward Guidance

If the Fed can’t predict the future path of the economy, it shouldn’t be predicting its own policy decisions.

Post by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding January 31, 2025 Geo-Graphics
World Trade Organization (WTO)

Soaring Abuse of “National Security” Exceptions Has Wrecked the Multilateral Trading System

Since 2019, there has been a massive surge in “National Security” notifications at the WTO. Many of these are covers for rank protectionism.

Post by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding December 19, 2024 Geo-Graphics
Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies

How Trump Can Control the Fed

Could President-elect Donald Trump end Fed independence on monetary policy? A legislative anomaly gives him a way.

Post by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding November 18, 2024 Geo-Graphics
China

China’s Central Bank is Becoming the Developing World’s “Payday Lender”

With the developing world’s growing use of costly and opaque “payday loans” from China’s central bank, the IMF and World Bank need to demand far greater transparency from Beijing.

Post by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding October 22, 2024 Geo-Graphics
United States

Will a Worker Shortage Kill the U.S. Manufacturing Boom?

The United States is witnessing a boom in manufacturing investment, stimulated by massive government subsidies, but the skilled workforce necessary to support it is severely lacking.

Post by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding September 30, 2024 Geo-Graphics
Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies

Aging Will Hit China’s Economy Far Harder Than Is Recognized

Aging is not only shrinking the labor force but damaging productivity—and therefore per capita GDP growth.

Post by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding August 28, 2024 Geo-Graphics
Economics

Big Macs Show Dollar Hugely Overvalued, But “Mini Macs” Beg to Differ.

Whereas the Economist magazine’s Big Mac currency index says the dollar is hugely overvalued, CFR’s “Mini Mac” index finds it slightly undervalued.

Post by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding August 12, 2024 Geo-Graphics
Economics

Immigration Has Boosted Labor Force Participation, Helping Growth and Hastening Rate Cuts

One factor boosting the case for an early Fed rate cut is the rise in the labor force participation rate—a rise driven by immigration.

Post by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding July 22, 2024 Geo-Graphics
Economics

The Farm Legacy of Henry Wallace: Regressive Subsidies

The era of massive government farm subsidies began in the early 1930s. It has favored the large and the rich ever since.

Post by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding June 10, 2024 Geo-Graphics
Economics

For the First Time, the U.S. Is Spending More on Debt Interest than Defense

Post by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding May 23, 2024 Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies
Economics

Global Inflation Tracker

The CFR Global Inflation Tracker allows you to gauge trends in prices across the world over time.

Tracker by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding December 19, 2024 Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies
Economics

China Has Become a Major Source of Sovereign Default Risk

Post by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding March 20, 2024 Geo-Graphics
Economics

With a Soft Landing Looking Likely, the Dollar Falls on the CFR Mini Mac Index

Post by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding February 6, 2024 Geo-Graphics
Economics

Fed Policy is Tighter Than it Looks, and is Set to Tighten Further

Post by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding January 30, 2024 Geo-Graphics
Economics

QT and Monetary Policy

Post by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding December 6, 2023 Geo-Graphics
Economics

Dollar Plummets on CFR Mini Mac Index as Market Calls a Peak on U.S. Rates

Post by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding August 15, 2023 Geo-Graphics
Economics

As China Battles Falling Home Prices, the U.S. Faces a Worsening Housing Shortage

Post by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding October 13, 2023 Geo-Graphics
China

The Root of China’s Growing Youth Unemployment Crisis

Post by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding September 18, 2023 Geo-Graphics
Global

Central Bank Currency Swaps Tracker

Introduction Since the financial crisis of 2007, central banks around the world have entered into a multitude of bilateral currency swap agreements with one another. These agreements allow a centr…

Tracker by Benn Steil, Elisabeth Harding and Samuel Zucker October 2, 2024
Economics

The Fed Is Tightening More Than It Says

with Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding via Barron's November 29, 2023
RealEcon

How Washington Killed the World Trade Organization

with Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding via Barron's December 12, 2024

Taiwan

Why China-Taiwan Relations Are So Tense

Differences over Taiwan’s status have fueled rising tensions between the island and mainland. Taiwan is the likeliest potential flash point in U.S.-China relations.

Backgrounder by Lindsay Maizland and Clara Fong March 18, 2025

Ukraine

Here’s How Much Aid the United States Has Sent Ukraine

Ten charts illustrate the extraordinary level of support the United States has provided Ukraine in its war against Russian invaders.

Article by Jonathan Masters and Will Merrow March 11, 2025

Palestinian Territories

The UN’s Palestinian Aid Controversy: What’s at Stake

The leading UN aid agency for Palestinian refugees faces severe funding cuts and suspended services, with huge consequences for millions of Palestinians. It remains enmeshed in controversy over accusations that some of its employees were involved in Hamas’s 2023 attack on Israel.

In Brief by Christina Bouri March 6, 2025

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