Disasters

Sailors load food and humanitarian supplies onto a helicopter aboard the USS Ronald Reagan which is off the coast of Japan, providing humanitarian assistance as directed in support of Operation Tomodachi, March 18, 2011. (Ho New/Courtesy Reuters) [Click here for information on how to locate friends and family in Japan, and here for how you can help]   Last week, I discussed the front line role of Japan’s Self Defense Force, and received many emails from Japanese friends in Tokyo asking that I do the same for the U.S. government personnel, uniformed and civilian, that are providing much needed assistance to Japan.   Operation Tomodachi—a broad disaster relief operation in support of Japan’s response to the triple crises—is growing by the day, and is a remarkable testament to the full throttle U.S. government effort to help the Japanese people. From the beginning the U.S. military was quickly on the scene; the U.S. Forces Japan stationed in country organized themselves for immediate support and Pacific Command forces outside Japan regrouped to lend assistance. An aircraft carrier task force, led by the USS Ronald Reagan, headed immediately for Japan, followed by eight other ships stocked with emergency relief equipment and supplies.  Emma Chanlett-Avery at the Congressional Research Service has done an excellent job of chronicling the burgeoning U.S. military effort to assist Japan. So let me quote her aggregation of the U.S. military effort at the moment:   On March 18, one week after the quake struck, U.S. and Japanese forces began to transition from a search and rescue effort to a relief mission for the survivors. DOD officials report that as of the morning of March 22, 20 U.S. naval ships, 140 aircraft, and 19,703 sailors and marines are now involved in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief efforts in and around Japan, delivering 227 tons of relief supplies to date. U.S. Army and Air Force units are also delivering humanitarian supplies and providing other services as required. All search and rescue assets from Okinawa, the southernmost part of Japan, were first moved to Yokota Air base outside of Tokyo and then deployed to the north...On March 21, Admiral Robert Willard, commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, visited the Defense Ministry for consultations with SDF Chief of Staff Ryoichi Oriki and other officers, reinforcing the commitment to coordinate relief efforts. Tomodachi, meaning friend in Japanese, is just what Japan needs right now, and the outpouring of American support reflects just how deeply Japan’s pain is felt here. President Obama himself, within hours of the earthquake-tsunami on March 11, promised Japan “The United States stands ready to help the Japanese people in this time of great trial. The friendship and alliance between our two nations is unshakeable, and only strengthens our resolve to stand with the people of Japan as they overcome this tragedy.” He reiterated that promise in the midst of considerable anxiety last week over the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant’s difficulties, and he demonstrated the depth of his concern when he visited the Japanese Embassy in Washington, DC on March 17 to sign the book of condolences there. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton also visited the embassy to personally extend her condolences for the victims of Japan’s natural disaster.    On the ground in Japan, the U.S. military mobilized quickly, and has been expanding its efforts to assist in search and rescue, and relief operations to the devastated northeastern region. Misawa Air Base in the north has been the nexus of the supply delivery efforts now burgeoning over difficult terrain. Even oil and gas supplies are being provided by our forces as the government and non-governmental relief teams are confronted by shortages.  Leading our overall American government response team in Japan is Ambassador John Roos and his staff at the U.S. Embassy in Tokyo, who has been tireless in his effort to support Japan’s government as well as in communicating clearly with U.S. citizens about the U.S. government’s support for those living in Japan. The USAID Disaster and Response Team (DART) that joined him in Tokyo the day following the earthquake included officials from USAID, the Department of Energy (DOE), and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Today, there are 39 DOE and 11 NRC experts working with their Japanese counterparts on the effort to contain the impacts of damage to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant’s reactors.  I will add more later about the various non-governmental efforts to raise money and send volunteers to Japan, but for now I would like our U.S. Embassy staff in Tokyo and our U.S. Forces Japan and beyond to know what a difference they are making in the disaster relief effort. Like in the 2004 tsunami relief effort, and again in other disasters around Asia, they have demonstrated that they are there for the people of Asia when needed the most. 

First it was radioactive material in milk and spinach near the Fukushima reactors. Now it’s radioactive iodine in Tokyo tapwater that exceeds limits for infant consumption. All of which makes me think back to some work that I did in 2002 on dirty bombs. (Even if you aren’t interested in dirty bombs, read through; there’s a lesson for the current situation here too.) My colleagues and I wanted to estimate the consequences of a dirty bomb attack. To do that, we simulated the dispersal of radioactive material and then determined the area over which contamination levels would exceed established safety limits. The results were disturbing: large swaths of a city could be put off limits by a relatively modest attack. Some smart people pushed back. Contamination was considered unacceptable under existing regulations if continued exposure raised the risk of death from cancer by more than one-in-ten thousand. But the background rate of death from cancer was already one in five. If a large area became contaminated in a dirty bomb attack, they asked, wouldn’t authorities relax the limits? Faced with a choice between abandoning chunks of a city and accepting, say, a one-in-a-thousand increase in the cancer fatality rate, wouldn’t people pick the latter? Over the years, I became somewhat sympathetic to that argument, but I wasn’t entirely convinced. In particular, I was pretty sure that changing the safety thresholds after an event (rather than developing a set of alternative rules in advance) would be tough. Few people have the technical knowledge to judge for themselves what’s safe or not. In the aftermath of an ugly incident, they may also lose trust in authorities, which means that they won’t trust revisions to the rules either. Authorities may be stuck with the preexisting guidelines even if there’s a more rational alternative. That dynamic may come into play in Japan. I don’t want to claim any authoritative knowledge of the situation in Tokyo. That said, to the best of my understanding, the levels of iodine being seen in water exceed the threshold for chronic exposure. [UPDATE: After some more research, this is even more of a muddle. The thresholds seem to be consistent with FDA limits for chronic exposure through drinking water, but much more lax than EPA limits for the same. Like I said, I don’t want to claim any authoritative knowledge.] No one is yet at risk of chronic exposure. But authorities are still telling people not to drink the water. That may not be a rational response to the actual threat to public health, but it is a perfectly reasonable response given the existing rules. We will probably learn a lot in the coming months about exactly how much radioactive contamination people are willing to live with. The initial lesson I take away is that once you reach the point in a crisis where the radiation rules have become potentially counterproductive, it’s probably too late to change them.

A man walks through the flooded Terme area of New Orleans, lying under several feet of water on August 29, 2005. (Rick Wilking/Courtesy Reuters) As I watched the Japan crisis unfold in rapid succession—the earthquake, the tsunami and then the collapsing nuclear reactors at the Daiichi nuclear plant in Fukushima—I was struck by the absolute dignity and unity of the Japanese people. My colleague Sheila Smith has an excellent post on this, so no need for me to repeat. Instead, I want to raise the issue of context, or the lack thereof. For much of the past ten days, I have felt as though I was in an alternative reporting reality. Particularly in the early days, the western news media focused almost exclusively on the failures within the Japanese system: the failure of the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) to share information; the failure of the Prime Minister to stay on top of the crisis, and the failure of the Japanese people to retain hope and not hoard groceries. There was little to no reporting on the strength and resilience of the people. Yet many voices from Japan suggested this. How did we miss half the story? Even if the news media couldn’t see the whole picture in the midst of their frenzied reporting, how about some comparisons with other disaster responses? Does anyone remember the 2005 Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath? Tens of thousands of New Orleans residents simply refused to heed the government’s warning and leave the city before the hurricane hit. After the hurricane, there was no clean water or electricity; television news broadcasts were disrupted, hindering the flow of information; and armed gangs trolled the city looting. Decomposing bodies sometimes lay for days before they were collected. Rebuilding, of course, has been a slow and tortuous process, and more than five years later, sections of the city are still abandoned. Let’s not even discuss the difference between President Bush’s flight over the city and Prime Minister Kan’s roll-up-your-sleeves, on-the-ground approach to crisis management. China can also help bring some context. The Sichuan earthquake in 2008 is estimated to have cost around 90,000 lives, of which more than 5,000 were children. Of course, we don’t know for sure because the Chinese government refuses to allow the names of the children who died to be released. Moreover, after initially welcoming outside assistance and non-governmental organizations into the area to help with relief work, the government soon sent them all away, afraid of what they might see and report. In this vein, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Jiang Yu might win the award for greatest irony when she called on Thursday for Japan to be more transparent in its release of information to the public. The irony only increases when three days later, a South Korean state think tank announced that the toxic yellow dust that travels from China to South Korea every spring contains traces of cesium 137, indicating that China likely has a leak in one of its nuclear reactors. Perhaps Jiang Yu can offer some transparency on that front. Certainly the Japanese government and TEPCO have made mistakes, and undoubtedly, we will learn of more as time goes on. But if we put this devastating disaster into context, their glass house might look pretty good compared to ours.

A student volunteer holds a sign in front of instant noodles for evacuees from Futaba, a city near the quake-stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, at the evacuees' new shelter Saitama Super Arena, near Tokyo March 20, 2011, nine days after an earthquake and tsunami hit Japan. (Jo Yong hak/Courtesy Reuters) [Click here for information on how to locate friends and family in Japan, and here for how you can help]  There are so many issues to discuss, but this morning, I thought I ought to share with you the voices I heard throughout the past week—on blogs, in conversation, and in the flowing emails to those of us outside the country—that ran counter to the speculation and panicky shrillness of our media’s coverage of the situation inside Japan.  Luckily, the English-language press published some first hand accounts by two foreign residents of Japan, Paul Blustein and William Pesek, who sought to quell our media’s whipped-up frenzy. They give us insights on what it is like for those in Japan trying to grapple with the effects of the disaster, and at the same time trying to go about their daily lives in the disruptions currently being confronted in the precisely organized world that we all know as Tokyo.  Since the earthquake-tsunami-and then, nuclear-disasters, I have had emails from many, Japanese and non-Japanese, asking me to help locate individuals, to help decipher the media’s disparagement of government announcements (both ours and theirs, by the way), and thanking CFR for its coverage online. For many living within Japan, especially in the northeast where there are still shortages of power, heat and food, information flow is sketchy. Electricity remains unavailable to many, and thus TV, radio and internet-access limited.     I will be back with more later on some of the challenges Japan faces. But for this Monday morning, I thought you should all read some of the experiences shared within Japan over the past week. A compilation of stories, compiled by Japanese but quickly translated by an American in Tokyo, offer a window into why so many in Japan deserve our admiration. It is long, but well worth the read. I include it here just as it was sent to me, typos and all.   Outside the country, we have all marveled at the calm and dignity of the people of Japan in the face of this terrible devastation. These stories reveal more: the resilience and strength of so many individual Japanese. Both as a society, and as individuals, this is what inspires so many of us who know Japan so well. And, it is this resilience and strength, along with international assistance, that will energize Japan’s rebuilding effort.    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------  Personal accounts by number of people, on-the-street:  Someone overseas called me on my cell. She said she wanted to connectv to anyone who is in Japan, and so she called the country code and their own mobile number, which happened to be the same as mine. I didn’t fully understand everything she said, because it was English, but I knew enough to know that she really wanted to support the Japanese people. It really gave me so much hope.  Last night when I was walking home (since all traffic had stopped), I saw an old lady at a bakery shop. It was totally past their closing time, but she was giving out free bread. Even at times like this, people were trying to find what they can do and it made my heart warm.  In the supermarket, where items of all the shelves fell, people were picking up things so neatly together, and then quietly stand in line to buy food. Instead of creating panic and buying as much as needed, they bought as little as they needed. I was proud to be a Japanese.  When I was walking home, for 4 hours, there was a lady holding a sign that said, “Please use our toilet.” They were opening their house for people to go to the restroom. It was hard not to tear up, when I saw the warmth of people.  At Disneyland, they were giving out candies. High school girls were taking so many so I was thinking, “What???” But then the next minute, they ran to the children in the evacuation place and handed it to them. That was a sweet gesture.  My co-worker wanted to help somehow, even if it was just to one person. So he wrote a sign: “If you’re okay with motor cycle, I will drive you to your house.” He stood in the cold with that sign. And then I saw him take one gentleman home, all the way to Tokorozawa! I was so moved. I felt like I wanted to help others too.  A high school boy was saved because he climbed up on top of the roof of a department store during the flood. The flood came so suddenly, that he just saw people below him, trying to frantically climb up the roof and being taken by the flood. To help others, he kept filming them so their loved ones could see. He still hasn’t been able to reach his own parents but he says, “Its nobody’s fault. There is no one to blame. We have to stay strong.”  There is a lack of gas now and many gasoline stations are either closed or haave very loooong lines. I got worried, since I was behind 15 cars. Finally, when it was my turn, the man smiled and said, “Because of this situation, we are only giving $30 worth gas per each person. Is that alright?” “Of course its alright. I’m just glad that we are all able to share,” I said. His smile gave me so much relief.  I saw a little boy thanking a public transit employee, saying, “Thank you so much for trying hard to run the train last night.” It brought tears to the employee’s eyes, and mine.  A foreign friend told me that she was shocked to see a looong queue form so neatly behind one public phone. Everyone waited so patiently to use the phone even though everyone must have been so eager to call their families.  The traffic was horrible!! Only one car can move forward at green light. But everyone was driving so calmly. During the 10 hour drive (which would only take 30 minutes normally) the only horns I heard was a horn of thank you. It was a fearful time — but then again a time of warmth and it made me love Japan more.  When I was waiting at the platform, so tired and exhausted, a homeless person came to us and gave us a cardboard to sit on. Even though we usually ignore them in our daily life, they were ready to serve us.  Suntory (a juice company) is giving out free drinks, phone companies are creating more wi-fi spots, 1,000,000 noodles were given by a food company, and everyone is trying to help the best way they can. We, too, have to stand up and do our best.  Whenever there is a black out, people are working hard to fix it. Whenever the water stops, there are people working to fix that too. And when there is problem with nuclear energy, there are people trying to fix that too. It doesn’t just fix itself. While we are waiting to regain the heat in the cool temperature or have running water, there were people risking their life to fix it for us.  An old woman said, on a train: “Blackouts are no problem for me. I am used to saving electricity for this country, and turning off lights. At least, this time we don’t have bombs flying over our heads. I’m willing to happy to shut off my electricity!” Everyone around couldn’t say a word in response.  In one area, when the electricity returned, peopel rejoiced. And then someone yelled: “We got electricity because someone else probably conserved theirs! Thank you so much to EVERYONE who saved electricity for us. Thank you everyone!”  An old man at the evacuation shelter said, “What’s going to happen now?” And then a young high school boy sitting next to him said, “Don’t worry! When we grow up, we will promise to fix it back!” While saying this, he was rubbing the old man’s back. And when I was listening to that conversation, I felt hope. There is a bright future, on the other side of this crisis.

Rescue workers make their way through an area devastated by a tsunami as they search for victims in Rikuzentakata March 21, 2011. (Damir Sagolj/Courtesy Reuters) In the wake of the tsunami and earthquake, Japan is going to embark upon a massive reconstruction effort. Japan is a wealthy country, but already the sheer scale of the disaster, combined with the Japanese government’s apparent paralysis, is making initial relief efforts challenging. Though the 2004 Asian tsunami mostly hit nations far poorer than Japan, like Indonesia, Thailand, and Sri Lanka, there are lessons that can be taken from the 2004-05 relief and rebuilding effort that can be applied to Japan. In a CFR expert brief, I examine some of those lessons.

Japan bears only some resemblance to the Asian countries ravaged by the 2004 tsunami, but their recovery experiences could provide valuable insights to leaders in Tokyo, writes CFR’s Joshua Kurlantzick.

Japan Self-Defense Forces officers search for victims in Higashimatsushima City, Miyagi Prefecture in northern Japan, after an earthquake and tsunami struck the area, March 14, 2011. (Courtesy Reuters/Kyodo) [Click here for information on how to locate friends and family in Japan, and here for how you can help] For much of the postwar period, the Japanese Self Defense Force (SDF) has remained in the background of national life. Post-war sensitivities about pre-war militarism left little room for the SDF to vaunt its capabilities, or its bravery. But today, as the country faces a complex and simultaneous series of crises, Japan’s military has emerged as the nation’s most relied upon “first responder.” In Japan’s largest disaster relief operation ever, the SDF has every asset deployed. The Maritime Self Defense Force has 59 ships offshore, and there are a total of 176 helicopters and 319 fixed-wing aircraft engaged. Personnel total 70,000 (40,000 Ground Self Defense Force (GSDF) and 30,000 combined Maritime and Air Self Defense Force personnel), and the number is growing. For the first time in the postwar era, the Japanese government has mobilized its reserves. The worst of the grim work associated with recovery has been given to the SDF. In many areas in the north where the devastation was so complete, SDF personnel are deployed in search and rescue operations along the devastated coastlines of Tohoku. Japan’s military faced the stark task of searching for victims through the rubble, and marking with red flags the location of the bodies found. Second, Japan’s SDF has been working with local fire and police units to repair roads, and to reopen critical infrastructure in the northeast. The SDF initiated the effort to supply evacuation centers with water, food, and blankets in heavily damaged areas. SDF helicopters and trucks are still the mainstay of delivery of goods to Iwate, Miyagi, and Fukushima prefectures. Finally, Japan’s SDF has stepped up in the desperate effort to contend with the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. GSDF helicopters were deployed on Wednesday in the initial effort to drop water on the No. 4 reactor. High radiation levels forced the operation to be halted, but the GSDF helicopters returned again on Thursday, at a higher altitude, to drop thirty tons of water on the plant. At the same time, SDF firefighting equipment and hazardous materials specialists were brought in over land after the National Police Agency determined that it did not have the requisite equipment. The nation is glued to NHK as it covers the ongoing crisis, and Japan’s citizens now understand that the Self Defense Force, along with Tokyo Electric Power Company’s (TEPCO) engineers, have accepted the attendant radiation risk. Defense Minister Kitazawa clearly stated on Thursday that they had run up against the clock on reactor No. 3. The nation’s future seems now to rest on the shoulders of a military that has rarely been allowed the spotlight, or, indeed, responsibility. Watching the burgeoning number of Twitter followers on #prayforjapan, a website dedicated to supporting Japan and its people through this terrible tragedy, I am struck by the deep respect conveyed for Japan’s Self Defense Force, especially from younger Japanese. One message announces simply the number of people rescued by the SDF: 14,900 by March 14. Another says how proud she is of the SDF and other first responders—a sentiment rarely expressed about Japan’s nearly invisible post-war military. As the media indulges in debate over whether the government and TEPCO behaved properly, the people of Japan understand that it is those inside the Fukushima plant right now that have the nation’s fate in their hands. How is the SDF itself coping? Here’s a small insight from a Twitter message. A woman tells her husband, who serves in the SDF, to take care of himself and not overdo it (muri shinaide kudasai). She tweeted that he admonished her, saying “if this is not the time for the SDF to overdo it, when is?”

Mexican soldiers unload boxes with medical aid donated by China at the airport in Oaxaca, Mexico on May 5, 2009. (STR New/Courtesy Reuters) On March 11, I had a debate with Ambassador Jack Chow of Carnegie Mellon University on the question: “Should the United States press China to make the full transition from health aid recipient to global health donor?” The event was hosted by the CSIS Global Health Policy Center as part of its “Fault Lines in Global Health Debate” series. You can listen here to our discussion on China’s status as a recipient of and contributor to global health aid, as well as the prospect for China to make the full transition to a global health donor. The debate occurred only a few hours after the devastating earthquake and tsunami hit Japan. While I was concerned about the safety of my Japanese friends, I could not help but think of China’s Tangshan earthquake 35 years ago, which resulted in the loss of around 250,000 lives. To the surprise of the international community, China had declined the offer of humanitarian and medical assistance by Japan and other foreign governments. By contrast, China today faces growing pressures to significantly increase its global health aid and other development assistance. Critics find it ridiculous that a country with the largest foreign exchange reserve and the second largest fiscal revenue is still aggressively pursuing grants from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria. While I am sympathetic to the critics’ perspectives, I don’t think the United States has very much leverage to press China to become a full global health donor. As indicated by its clumsy handling of the Liu Xiaobo case, Chinese leaders today are increasingly inward-looking when it comes to issues with political legitimacy implications.  According to one senior Chinese health official, for example, China is still a developing nation and given the challenges of social-economic development that it faces, the fact that it is addressing the health problems of its 1.3 billion people should be viewed as a significant contribution to global health. Conflicts and instability in the Middle East only highlights the importance of domestic health issues. Years ago, a study by Ted Gurr, Robert Bates, and others found strong correlation between infant mortality rate (IMR) and political instability (e.g., disruptive regime transitions). China has an IMR of 18, which is close to Egypt (20), the same as Tunisia (18), but higher than Libya (17). It would also be unrealistic to expect China to significantly increase its financial contribution to global health because some political elites are increasingly viewing the demand for China to shoulder more global responsibilities and obligations as an international conspiracy. One former Politburo member, for example, claimed that these demands were in essence to ask China to take responsibilities “that do not match China’s power status… in an attempt to shirk Western developed countries’ responsibilities while at the same time delaying and containing the speed and space of China’s development, and sow discord between China and a large number of developing countries.” The conspiracy theory may become self-fulfilling given the recent debate on Capitol Hill over the Budget FY12. As my distinguished colleague Laurie Garrett recently wrote, “It is troubling to find the first shots out of Washington’s budget cannons taking aim at foreign assistance.” The GOP is proposing a $1.5 billion cut in Global Health Initiative commitments, including sharp reductions in support of the Global Fund. This occurs when the State Department’s QDDR is calling for leading through “civilian power” in solving global problems. Lack of policy coherence and consistence on our side only reinforces Beijing’s view that our efforts to press for radical change of its foreign aid policy are hypocritical at best.

People watch a television broadcasting Japan's Emperor Akihito's televised address to the nation at an electronics retail store in Tokyo. (Issei Kato/Courtesy Reuters) [Click here for information on how to locate friends and family in Japan, and here for how you can help] Day five of the struggle to cope with the devastation in Japan brings increasing fears, but it has revealed yet again the herculean effort currently underway across Japanese society to address the complex and urgent needs of the nation.    Japan’s Emperor Akihito, in a recorded message, asked the Japanese people not to give up hope and to reach out to each other in this time of great crisis. He urged the earliest relief be delivered to those in northeast Tohoku region who are still suffering after the earthquake and tsunami, and asked those at the damaged Fukushima Daiichi plant to do all that they could to avoid a worsening of the situation. As NHK continued its reporting on the fire damage at the Fukushima Daiichi plant, new information came in from the Public Safety Commission that the radiation levels had dropped. For the first time all day it seemed possible to try again to get water to the reactors. The minute-by-minute coverage continued, and a letter delivered to NHK by children of a worker at the plant was read aloud. The letter asked the country to understand that their father was prepared to fight until the end, and urged authorities to find a way bring him and others at the plant food and water. This brings home the human cost that attends the heroic effort of those first responders on site who are working to bring the reactors under control.   But the frustrations elsewhere are growing. Supplies are not getting to the half million or more in Tohoku. In Tokyo and beyond, trucks are being loaded with food and water. Ten hours on the road to the closest supply areas are only the beginning of the journey. Roads into the coastal towns and evacuation sites remain blocked. The biggest challenge for those in these areas is gasoline. Even if roads are open, people have no means of getting anywhere. Many are walking the newly bulldozed roads to try to find their missing families.     According to NHK, nine refineries are located in this Tohoku region alone, but six of them are closed. Production of 4.5 million liters has dwindled to 3.1 million liters. Supply depots for bringing oil and gasoline to the north are similarly damaged. Japan’s oil companies are moving gasoline by ship to Niigata and Akita on the Sea of Japan coast, but roads east are similarly difficult to pass. With the electricity out in the affected areas, gasoline stands are also unable to get up and running.     But some signs of movement are evident. The Tohoku expressway, originally reserved for rescue and relief forces, is now open for supply efforts, and supply trucks are beginning to move north in increasing numbers. Some of the ports in Miyagi and Iwate have been cleared of debris, and will offer new ways in for supply efforts. As of the end of the day, roads to the badly hit towns of Hizentakada, Hisaichi and Kassenuma are reportedly almost open.  Once supplies reach communities in the north, the challenge will be to distribute to those not only in evacuation centers but to those without power, heat or information still living in their own homes. Convenience stores and supermarkets that remain are empty. Food producers have prepared meals, but are waiting to get permission to fly them in. Lawson, one of Japan’s biggest convenience store, has 40,000 ready-made meals to send. Air transport will be the key to getting these basic needs met quickly.    Today, 4,340 Japanese are confirmed dead, and 9,083 are still missing. But the focus of national energy at the moment is concentrated on those who have survived.    The crisis caused by Japan’s three disasters—earthquake, tsunami and nuclear—continues, and the nation’s basic needs remain acute—and growing.

Despite turbulence in financial markets, Japan’s multiple disasters will likely not have a major global economic impact, and reconstruction will provide a boost to the Japanese economy in the long term, says CFR’s Sebastian Mallaby.

While many questions remain about the problems at Fukushima nuclear plant, comparisons with the 1986 Chernobyl incident suggest Japan’s government is taking the right steps to mitigate radiation damage, says CFR’s Laurie Garrett.

  The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, 240 km (150 miles) north of Tokyo, is seen in this satellite image taken on November 21, 2004. (Ho New/Courtesy Reuters)   China’s nuclear industry’s free ride may soon be coming to an end. While nuclear power represents a mere fraction of China’s overall energy use—just over one percent—China plans to add another ten nuclear power projects to the books as part of the 12th Five Year Plan. By 2020, China wants to have a  nuclear power capacity of 86 GW–a dramatic increase considering China’s current capacity of 10.8 GW (To put that in perspective, in 2008, Japan’s nuclear capacity was 48 GW while the United States’ was 101 GW). China also has big plans to export its nuclear technology in the coming years. Despite such ambitious plans for an often contentious technology, there is virtually no public debate in China on the topic of nuclear power. In a country where environmental activists protest everything from dams to incinerators to the Maglev Train, the issues of nuclear safety and contamination are completely off the radar. Greenpeace Beijing, which should be a natural repository for anti-nuclear activity in China, has no campaign or study underway on the issue. Perhaps they want to avoid the fate of the two known activists—uranium mine worker Sun Xiaodi and his daughter Sun Haiyan—who were sentenced to jail in 2009 for inciting the public with libelous slogans of “nuclear pollution” and “human rights violations.” While censoring environmental debate and activism on nuclear power may have made life easy for the Chinese government up until now, the devastating nuclear accident in Japan has necessitated a new, serious dialogue on nuclear safety—at least among government officials. Certainly, as Evan Osnos writes, at least the official in charge of nuclear safety for China has warned in the past of too rapid an expansion in China’s nuclear industry, fearing that the quality of construction and safety will be compromised. But Japan’s nuclear crisis has afforded China a more concentrated time of introspection and debate. As James Areddy from the Wall Street Journal notes, some officials, such as Ministry of Environment Protection Vice Minister Zhang Lijun, have taken a relatively sanguine view: “Some lessons we learn from Japan will be considered in the making of China’s nuclear power plans, but China will not change its determination and plan for developing nuclear power.” Others, such as Liu Tienan, a deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, express greater concern, urging authorities to “seriously analyze and summarize lessons learned from Japan’s nuclear accident to ensure the safe development of the nuclear power industry…” A few experts, however, use the moment for real teaching. Wen Hongjun, the original director of the Chinese Nuclear Energy Studies Committee, in an article, “Analyzing Nuclear Pollution: The Unseen Devil” speaks to all the Chinese who live or will live in the shadow of a nuclear power reactor, when he warns in detail of the dangers of radioactive fallout. Even in the midst of the nuclear crisis unfolding next door, broader public debate is largely absent. While there is wide-ranging discourse on Japan’s devastating situation writ large, there is no such discourse on the implications for China and its nuclear industry. The Chinese website Baidu Zhidao has nothing on its website discussing China’s own nuclear power sites, suggesting that independent online public discussions on the topic are being censored. Yet the mere fact that officials are being forced to commit to the safety of China’s nuclear power industry in the media offers its own form of transparency and public accountability. It may not be everything, but it is something.

People on their wheelchairs rest at an evacuation centre in Kesennuma, Miyagi Prefecture in northern Japan, after an earthquake and tsunami struck the area, March 15, 2011. (Courtesy Reuters/Kyodo) [Click here for information on how to locate friends and family in Japan, and here for how you can help] At ten thirty in the night of March 15, another earthquake—magnitude 6.4—rocked the Kanto plain. Watching NHK to catch up on the latest news, I watched the incredibly composed news team at Newswatch 9 begin to report on an aftershock along the northeastern coast—and warn residents of the potential for a tsunami. But then the studio began to rock, and they began to realize that they were in the midst of another earthquake, centered this time just south of Tokyo. Cameras revealed the powerful lateral swaying buildings of Yokohama, Shizuoka and Tokyo. Just another night in a country that is struggling to cope with a national emergency that includes unimaginable devastation in the northeastern coast, a nuclear emergency at the tsunami-ravaged Fukushima Daiichi plant, and an economy that is reeling. As information about explosions in the nuclear plant raised fears and anxiety, the Nikkei lost more than 1,000 points—a 10 percent loss in Japan’s assets. All day today the urgent need for assistance at evacuation shelters in the north was communicated to national TV viewers. Messages from those in shelters, over 80 percent of who are elderly, ask for water, food, blankets and medicine. Local officials urged the national government to step up their efforts as they worry about the evacuees’ failing health, and the potential for more serious outbreaks of disease. Meanwhile, Self Defense Force search and rescue teams, accompanied by local residents, continue their grim task of searching the rubble of communities devastated by the tsunami. The television coverage on Tuesday, day four, continued the telling of individual stories. The horror of the day continues to be recalled. Amidst the sadness of those who face mountains of debris in their search for family and friends, there are moments of relief as those stranded in buildings were rescued and given access to telephones to reach their family. In tsunami-stricken Iwate, today, there were signs of help arriving. A British search and rescue team with their dogs arrived to begin their work amidst the crumpled buildings and impenetrable piles of ruin left behind by the tsunami. A doctor began to talk to a group at an evacuation center. When he asks the elderly evacuees if anything is bothering them, many hesitate and then raise their hands: “we cannot sleep, we are so frightened.” The doctor reassures them that he has medicine that will help them. In a gymnasium-turned-shelter, middle and high school students put up a brightly colored, hand painted sign: “We have our lives—let’s try hard to be happy!” While everyone is safe, life in Tokyo is wearing. The rolling blackouts have created confusion. Traffic signals are not working; refrigeration is compromised. Consumers have cleared shelves of goods that can be sustained over time. Noodles, rice, and other basic foodstuffs are being stockpiled, creating difficulties for supermarket inventory. The transportation system has had to improvise, and many companies, including Mitsubishi Truck, Sony, and Rakuten, have told their employees to work from home rather than wait in line for hours to get on a train. The news broadcasters are now reporting minimal damage from the new quake. Power lines are down in some areas, but traffic continues along the major highways connecting Tokyo to the south and west as supplies continue to flow north. Meanwhile, the weather man reports snow and freezing rain in the stricken prefectures in Tohoku.

An extraordinary series of events has caused Japan’s nuclear crisis but it appears backup safety systems were flawed, says nuclear expert Charles Ferguson. He expects the disaster to slow some nuclear projects elsewhere but not cause a wholesale stoppage.