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Introduction
Over the last several decades, governments have collectively pledged to slow global warming. But despite intensified diplomacy, the world is already facing the consequences of climate…
Center for Preventive Action
Managing Global Disorder
Project Expert
General John W. Vessey Senior Fellow for Conflict Prevention and Director of the Center for Preventive Action
About the Project
Increasing geopolitical friction between the United States and other major powers—including China, the European Union, India, and Russia—not only increases the risk of major war but also lessens the likelihood that other sources of instability and conflict can be effectively managed. The Center for Preventive Action convenes international workshops and publishes discussion papers on how the United States can best manage the growing risk of a more disorderly world.
This project is made possible by the generous support of Carnegie Corporation of New York.
Events
In a new paper for the Managing Global Disorder Discussion Paper series, Tanvi Madan argues that the intensifying competition in South Asia and the Indian Ocean between the United States and China and between China and India has profound implications for future peace and security in the region. Speakers discuss how the United States can manage and shape rivalries among major powers in South Asia while pursuing and defending its regional interests.
This roundtable is made possible by the generous support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York.
Although major power competition on the African continent is a reality, it should not dominate the Biden administration’s vision for U.S.-Africa relations, argues Michelle Gavin in her new paper Major Power Rivalry in Africa, for the Managing Global Disorder Discussion Paper series. Speakers discuss how the Biden administration can pursue strategic partnerships that align African aspirations and U.S. interests while managing competition with China.
To avoid a costly and potentially dangerous arms race with China and Russia, the United States should consider new and creative approaches to strategic arms control. A new paper, “The Future of Strategic Arms Control,” for the Managing Global Disorder series explains how this expanded conception can enhance strategic stability. American, Chinese, and Russian experts discuss how the major powers can pursue effective arms control in the future amid growing mistrust and animosity.
The risks of conflict between the United States and China are real and growing. This situation has left the U.S.-China relationship in a precarious place that will require delicate diplomacy in order to manage intensifying competition while preventing conflict. Panelists discuss “Major Power Rivalry in East Asia,” a paper by Evan S. Medeiros in the Managing Global Disorder discussion paper series, on how U.S. and Chinese policymakers should revitalize existing tools and build new ones to manage an increasingly militarized competition.
Additional Resources
For further reading, please see CPA's Managing Global Disorder series.
Even as the United States debates its role in the Middle East, it still retains significant power and influence in the region. With intensifying great power competition, however, regional dynamics and the prospects for preventing, containing, and mitigating conflicts are shifting. Panelists discuss these topics and possible avenues for cooperation among the major powers.
Additional Resources
For further reading, please see the CFR discussion paper, "Major Power Rivalry in the Middle East" by Steven A. Cook.
In this video of the Council on Foreign Relations’ Center for Preventive Action Roundtable Series on Managing Global Disorder, Qingguo Jia, Peking University, and Dhruva Jaishankar, Observer Research Foundation, discuss what the post-pandemic world may look like.
The COVID-19 pandemic has already sparked considerable debate over how the present international order could change as a consequence. Some commentators see the world growing more fragmented and disorderly while others believe this moment will give new impetus to international cooperation on a variety of global challenges. Speakers Andrey Kortunov, Russian International Affairs Council, and Nathalie Tocci, Istituto di Affari Internazionali, discuss what the post-pandemic world may look like.
For further reading, please see the CFR discussion paper, "Perspectives on a Changing World Order," by Dhruva Jaishankar, Qingguo Jia, Andrey Kortunov, Paul Stares, and Nathalie Tocci.
Blogs
Although deep disconnects plague current transatlantic cooperation in the Middle East, the United States and Europe still share a common interest in stabilizing this volatile region.
Despite a rift in the relationship, the United States could work with Europe to help African states achieve their peace and security goals.
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Thomas Graham argues that cooperation between European member states, as well as U.S. commitment to its allies in the region, can create a freer, more secure, and more prosperous Europe.
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In Dubai, leaders should focus their attention on policy solutions for vulnerable regions where climate change is amplifying the consequences of armed conflict and compounding failures of governance.
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The Middle East has suffered from protracted instability in recent decades, and climate-related disasters compound existing suffering. Marwa Daoudy argues that the United States and its partners should center mitigation efforts in assistance to the region.
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The countries on the Bay of Bengal already face some of the world’s most severe natural disasters, and climate change will likely make things worse. Sarang Shidore argues the United States should partner with regional organizations to increase mitigation efforts.
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Although no two major powers have openly fought in over three-quarters of a century, growing tensions between the United States, China, India, and Russia threaten renewed conflict. CFR’s Paul B. Stares argues a new logic—“mutual assured survival”—could keep the peace.
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The African countries of the Sahel stand to be among the most affected by climate change. To help mitigate its effects, Beza Tesfaye argues that the United States should partner with civil society groups and expand climate adaptation and financing efforts.
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Climate change is exacerbating instability in the Horn of Africa. Democratizing climate awareness, respecting African energy needs, and supporting regional organizations are strategies to mitigate its effects.
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To stave off climate-induced instability in Central America, national governments and regional and international organizations all have a role to play to develop both immediate crisis response and long-term instability mitigation, argues Paul J. Angelo.
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Despite growing rivalry among the major powers, multilateral institutions like the United Nations can continue to play a vital role in the management of violent conflict. Washington should look for opportunities to work with these institutions and, where needed, bolster their role in cooperation with other powers to manage future regional threats to peace.
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The United States should regard distrust—not cooperation—as a baseline condition for starting negotiations around shared global threats and challenges with other major powers, such as China and Russia.
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South Asia will be both the venue for and the source of intensifying U.S.-China and China-India rivalries. The United States should prepare to manage these rivalries by collaborating with allies and partners, competing with rivals to protect U.S. interests, and grappling with the risk of conflict.
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Major power rivalry on the African continent cannot be ignored, but it should not dominate U.S.-Africa relations. The United States should pursue close, strategic partnerships with African states.
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To manage the increasingly stark geopolitical power shifts of the past decade-plus, the United States should pursue arms control strategies that regulate rivalry and introduce a broader array of reciprocal restraints.
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In an era of intensifying U.S.-China friction and volatility, the risks of conflict are real and growing in East Asia, and U.S. policymakers should revitalize existing tools and build new ones to manage an increasingly militarized competition.
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Great power competition is altering the prospects for managing conflicts in the Middle East. As policymakers rethink the United States’ role in the region, they should avoid the kind of strategic errors that have provided opportunities for other major powers, notably China and Russia, to undermine U.S. policy.
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Although the world seems destined to grow more competitive, congested, and contested in the coming years, the logic of major power cooperation remains inescapable. Any effort to shape a new international order that is stable, inclusive, and beneficial to all must be a collaborative undertaking.
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In July 2018, the Council on Foreign Relations’ Center for Preventive Action convened a workshop to examine areas of cooperation between the United States and the European Union. The workshop was mad…
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In March 2018, the Council on Foreign Relations’ Center for Preventive Action convened a workshop to examine areas of cooperation between the United States and China. The workshop, held in partnershi…
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Relations between the United States and Russia have recently declined, but U.S., European, and Russian experts identify possible areas of cooperation for the two to work together to foster global stability.
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