Natalie Caloca

CFR Staff

Natalie Caloca

Assistant Director, Center for Preventive Action

Natalie Caloca is assistant director of the Center for Preventive Action (CPA) at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). She was previously the program coordinator and a research associate for CPA. Before joining CFR, she was a teaching assistant at the School for Ethics and Global Leadership in London, United Kingdom and completed internships at the Better Evidence Project at the Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter School for Peace and Conflict Resolution and the Center for Engagement and Advocacy in the Americas. She graduated with a B.A. in international affairs, with concentrations in conflict resolution and international politics, from the Elliott School of International Affairs at the George Washington University.

United States

A Guide to Trump’s Second-Term Military Strikes and Actions

Since returning to office, Trump has steadily expanded his use of military force abroad. Many of his actions mirror those of previous administrations, but diverge from the president’s past opposition to foreign military commitments.

by Abi McGowan, Molly Carlough and Natalie Caloca January 13, 2026
Wars and Conflict

Five Takeaways From CFR’s 2026 Conflict Risk Assessment

Every year, the Preventive Priorities Survey asks experts to rank thirty conflict scenarios in terms of likelihood and potential impact. This year’s results paint a picture of a more violent and dangerous world in 2026.

by Natalie Caloca, Molly Carlough and Abi McGowan December 18, 2025 Center for Preventive Action
China Strategy Initiative

China in the Taiwan Strait: May 2025

U.S. officials warned the world about a potential conflict over Taiwan. China accused Taiwanese authorities of hacking. China’s president asserted legal authority over Taiwan. Taiwan increased pressure on Chinese spouses.

by Natalie Caloca July 8, 2025 China Strategy Initiative
China Strategy Initiative

China in the Taiwan Strait: March 2025

Taiwan President Lai declared China a foreign hostile force and oversaw the island’s first whole-of-society civil defense drill. Taiwan also cracked down on Chinese influencers, spies, and tech companies.

by Natalie Caloca May 20, 2025 China Strategy Initiative
India

India and Pakistan: On the Brink of Conflict Over Kashmir

Following a terrorist attack in Kashmir, India and Pakistan are heading toward a conflict, with few signs of de-escalation.

by Steven Honig and Natalie Caloca April 30, 2025 Asia Unbound
China Strategy Initiative

China in the Taiwan Strait: February 2025

The PRC threatened Taiwan and its partners with live-fire military drills. Taiwan cracked down on Chinese influence and espionage. The Taiwanese Coast Guard boarded and detained the Chinese crew of a ghost ship implicated in a cable-cutting plot.

by Natalie Caloca April 9, 2025 China Strategy Initiative
China Strategy Initiative

China in the Taiwan Strait: January 2025

January saw the PRC’s first combat patrol of the year around Taiwan and the presidential office of Taiwan’s first-ever tabletop wargame. Taiwan accused Chinese-owned cargo ships of deliberately damaging undersea telecom cables in the waters surrounding the island, Taipei cracked down on spies and PRC ID-holders, and Donald Trump’s inauguration brought new challenges for the Washington-Beijing-Taipei relationship.

by Natalie Caloca January 30, 2025 China Strategy Initiative
United Nations

Security Challenges Cloud UN’s Summit of the Future

This year’s UN summit offers a rare chance for reform of the world’s leading peace and security body but is bedeviled by major power tensions over intractable wars.

by Paul B. Stares and Natalie Caloca September 19, 2024 Center for Preventive Action
Australia

Australia’s Growing Defense and Security Role in the Indo-Pacific

Australia’s first comprehensive national defense strategy comes as Chinese coercion around Taiwan and in the South China Sea sparks heightened concerns about Beijing’s intentions and ambitions in the region.

by Natalie Caloca August 1, 2024
Nigeria

The Forever Counterinsurgency

What if the Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria is ‘programmed’ to continue in perpetuity?

by Ebenezer Obadare and Natalie Caloca July 24, 2024 Africa in Transition
China

Review of "Countering China’s Great Game: A Strategy For American Dominance"

Michael Sobolik’s new book Countering China’s Great Game promotes an assertive approach to China policy that would frustrate Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative and leave no room for bilateral cooperation.

by Natalie Caloca July 18, 2024 Asia Unbound
Climate Change

Climate, Conflict, and COP28: The Burden on Unstable Regions

In Dubai, leaders should focus their attention on policy solutions for vulnerable regions where climate change is amplifying the consequences of armed conflict and compounding failures of governance.

by Natalie Caloca December 1, 2023

Iran

The Islamic Republic’s Power Centers

Who calls the shots in Iran on economic policy, security, and domestic calls for reform? A look at the government’s organization chart indicates how complicated the answer is.

by CFR Editors January 9, 2026

Climate Change

Paris to Kyoto: The History of UN Climate Agreements

International efforts, such as the Paris Agreement, aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But experts say countries aren’t doing enough to limit dangerous global warming.

by Lindsay Maizland and Clara Fong January 9, 2026 Renewing America

Hong Kong

Hong Kong’s Freedoms: What China Promised and How It’s Cracking Down

Beijing has tightened its grip on Hong Kong in recent years, dimming hopes that the financial center will ever become a full democracy.

by Lindsay Maizland and Clara Fong December 15, 2025

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