The odds of a US recession: Nouriel Roubini: 90% Stephen Jen: 13%  I know my comparative advantage does not lie in gauging whether or not a sharp fall in residential investment will spill o…

Roach has access to a slightly higher level of policy makers than either the author - or I suspect most of the readers - of this blog.   Particularly in China.   He didn't learn of Wen's critique of …

Subtitle: some parts of the IMF might want to reread Keynes. China, as we have discussed, saves too much and consumes too little.  It consequently finances both its own (exceptionally rapid) industri…

Apparently, Mr. Jen thinks the dollar -- despite the United States’ 6.2% of GDP current account deficit -- is significantly undervalued against all major currencies, and fairly valued against most As…