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October 27, 2008

Financial Markets
The soaring yen The soaring yen

Back when it was fashionable to talk about the end of macroeconomic volatility, it was also common to note that volatility had disappeared from the currency market. The FT’s resident financial anth…

October 27, 2008

Group of 7 (G7)
Can the G7 Stabilize the Yen? Can the G7 Stabilize the Yen?

The G7 has expressed concern over the implications of excessive yen volatility for financial and economic stability, but fell short of promising coordinated action. The graph above illustrates th…

December 4, 2005

Financial Markets
The yen, for a change

The yen's trajectory at the end of 2005 seems a bit like the dollar's trajectory at the end of 2004.   With the yen at 120, companies like Toyota presumably have little incentive to ramp up t…

June 4, 2018

United States
Italian flag over Quirinal Palace. Trade Deals or Macroeconomic Shocks?

With ongoing euro uncertainty in Italy, financial turmoil in Argentina and Turkey, and potential fiscal risks to demand in Asia, does the Trump administration's focus on trade deals miss the larger m…

May 21, 2018

Argentina: Sustainable, Yes, with Adjustment.  But Sustainable with A High Probability? Argentina: Sustainable, Yes, with Adjustment. But Sustainable with A High Probability?

Probably only connoisseurs of IMF Access Policy debates understand the importance of being judged “sustainable with a high probability” by 19th Street. That’s what unlocks the keys to the kingdom,…

March 15, 2007

Financial Markets
Just how big is the yen carry trade?

Stephen Jen of Morgan Stanley insists not-so-big.  Or at least that the large size of the carry trade cannot be proved – and that the impact of any recent unwinding has been overstated.   That is his…

February 23, 2007

Monetary Policy
Can the yen ever be the un-dollar?

Binky Chadha and my friend Jens Nystedt of Deutsche Bank think so.In a world where the (net) global flow of capital is increasingly dominated by official flows (Chadha and Nystedt note "emerging mark…

February 10, 2007

Financial Markets
G-7 punts on the yen, as expected

The G-7 punted on the yen, more or less.  They didn't highlight yen weakness in their closely watched paragraph on exchange rates.  Though, as Morgan Stanley points out, the language on Japan ("J…

October 9, 2006

Financial Markets
Yet another reason to sell yen …

North Korea’s nuclear test.     At least that is an argument for selling yen that has long made a certain amount of sense.  Some other arguments for selling yen are, well, a bit more creative. …

November 7, 2005

United States
Renminbi hits multi-month highs v euro, yen

Do not let anyone tell you that China's economy requires a stable exchange rate, and consequently, it must remain pegged to the dollar.    China now trades almost as much with Europe as with the …