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July 1, 2015

Ignoring Human Rights in Cuba

President Obama proudly announced the restoration of diplomatic relations with Cuba today--after a week of additional arrests on that island. Here’s the most recent story: "Police arrested Emilio Ga…

February 5, 2013

Economics
Mexico’s Congressional Agenda for 2013

With Enrique Peña Nieto’s first congressional session just starting, expectations are high. Between now and April 30th, when the sixty-second Congress will adjourn, many hope the administration will …

Calderon by the numbers - LAM

February 23, 2012

Politics and Government
Press Freedom and Democracy in Latin America

Last Wednesday, Ecuador’s Supreme Court upheld sentences handed down in July 2011 for four members of the El Universo newspaper’s staff in the latest chapter of a lengthy and controversial trial. Thr…

Freedom of Press - Latin America's Moment

June 7, 2012

Economics
How a Stronger Democracy Will Check the PRI

Here is a piece that I wrote for ForeignAffairs.com on the upcoming Mexican elections and the prospects for the PRI. After voting the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) out of Los Pinos, Mexico…

Peña Nieto - Latin Americas Moment

April 3, 2007

Financial Markets
GCC revaluation watch

The US housing boom is – rather clearly – over.   The Federal Reserve is – at least in the eyes of the market – more likely to cut than to raise US policy rates.    The dollar is rather weak, at leas…

November 28, 2007

Financial Markets
What should replace the Gulf’s peg to the dollar? More on my Peterson institute policy brief

Oil and the dollar have not consistently moved in the same direction over the past ten years.     In 1997/1998, oil tanked and the dollar soared.In 2000, oil and the dollar both rose – in large par…

April 17, 2007

Financial Markets
Saudi riyal, Kuwait dinar, UAE dirham hit multi-year lows v. the pound …

They are also getting close to a record low v. the euro. Yet oil is, well, still rather strong.   Against the dollar.  But also against the pound and euro.   The euro and pound have gained significan…

June 11, 2007

Monetary Policy
“Asia’s importance in the bond market cannot be overstated”

That quote doesn't come from me -- but from someone with a bit more authority: Jim Caron, co-head of global interest rate strategy at Morgan Stanley (quoted by Michael MacKenzie in Monday's F…

central_bank_demand_quarters

March 28, 2007

United States
Global adjustment — the US, Europe, Asia and last but not least the oil exporters

Folks have been worrying about the current account deficit for so long that “Wall Street is downright bored with it.”    Trust me, I know.  But just because the world’s central banks have financed an…