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October 17, 2017

China
Bitcoin and the Yuan Bitcoin and the Yuan

This is a guest post by Cole Frank, a research associate at the Council on Foreign Relations. China watchers are always looking for new ways to gauge capital flows and pressure on the yuan. The mo…

July 30, 2009

China
repegged The Yuan

China has long pegged its currency to the Dollar.  After the USD started to depreciate against many currencies in 2002, expectations emerged that China would move away from a tight dollar peg.  Fol…

June 21, 2018

China
What Would Happen if China Started Selling Off Its Treasury Portfolio? What Would Happen if China Started Selling Off Its Treasury Portfolio?

Just how important have foreign inflows been to the Treasury market?  

August 30, 2016

China
Real-effective-CNY The 2016 Yuan Depreciation

The Bank for International Settlements’ (BIS) broad effective index is the gold standard for assessing exchange rates. And the BIS shows—building on a point that George Magnus has made—that China’s c…

June 5, 2018

China
How Durable is China’s Rebalancing? How Durable is China’s Rebalancing?

I increasingly suspect my view on Chinese “rebalancing” is at odds with the current consensus (or perhaps just with a plurality of the investment bank analysts and financial journalists who watch Chi…

June 4, 2018

United States
Italian flag over Quirinal Palace. Trade Deals or Macroeconomic Shocks?

With ongoing euro uncertainty in Italy, financial turmoil in Argentina and Turkey, and potential fiscal risks to demand in Asia, does the Trump administration's focus on trade deals miss the larger m…

May 25, 2018

Iran
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters after signing a proclamation declaring his intention to withdraw from the JCPOA Iran nuclear agreement in the Diplomatic Room at the White House in Washington, U.S. May 8, 2018. The Complicated Geopolitics of U.S. Oil Sanctions on Iran

U.S.-Iranian conflict resolution is in flux following withdrawal from the nuclear deal, and it remains unclear whether sanctions will be sufficient to force Iran back to the negotiating table. A deeper dive into the energy realpolitik of the matter reveals a host of barriers to improving the status quo in the Middle East.

April 13, 2018

Thailand
Previewing the U.S. Treasury’s April Foreign Exchange Report Previewing the U.S. Treasury’s April Foreign Exchange Report

The U.S. Treasury Department’s next foreign exchange report is due on April 15—so it should come out soon, maybe even tonight. Normally the section on China attracts all the attention. But righ…

March 16, 2018

Capital Flows
The (Balance of Payments) World Changed in 2014 The (Balance of Payments) World Changed in 2014

Reserve growth stopped as private investors in Europe and Japan started buying a lot of the rest of the world's bonds.

March 15, 2018

Religion
Uighur men leave a mosque following the Eid prayers in Kashgar. Religion in China

As religious observance in China grows, the Chinese Communist Party continues to toughen oversight, increase religious persecution, and attempt to coopt state-sanctioned religious organizations.