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January 25, 2005

Emerging Markets
Memo to John Taylor: In what sense was the Argentine crisis contained?

David Sanger goes back to his roots as the New York Times’ Treasury correspondent, and outlines the tensions that the dollar’s slide over the past few years has created. Sanger digs up a bunch of ol…

May 8, 2005

Capital Flows
Is the balance of financial power shifting?

The IMF has about $200 billion that it can lend out. About $75 b is currently lent out, mostly to Brazil, Turkey and Argentina (data link), leaving a bit over $100 billion that could be lent out in …

May 22, 2006

Emerging Markets
The dollar is still a currency you run to …

At least if you have borrowed dollars to buy stocks in emerging economies that are tanking. The series of crisis that rocked emerging economies in the 1990s were a formative experience for me.   So M…

July 20, 2006

Financial Markets
Is bad news for the world good news for the dollar …

I have long been puzzled by the notion that the currency of a country with a 6% of GDP trade deficit and a 7% of GDP (maybe a bit less in q1 … ) constitutes a “safe haven.”   Safe havens are supposed…

September 11, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Is John Snow going to be among Katrina’s (political) casualties?

Mike Allen of Time (formerly Mike Allen of the Washington Post) seems to think so.  Or at least he is starting hear whispers.It seems that the White House's post-Katrina political strategy consis…

December 8, 2004

Politics and Government
Damaged Snow

If you were John Snow, would you stay knowing that you were at best the President’s second choice?Do DC’s conservative activists really value tax cuts more than financial stability? And does their op…

January 11, 2007

Financial Markets
Cracks in the GCC’s commitment to the dollar peg?

From Simon Derrick of the Bank of New York. Reuters reports that central bank governors of the UAE will meet in March to discuss currency pegs. The agency cites Governor Sultan Nasser al-Suweidi wh…

February 2, 2007

Financial Markets
A trillion dollars gets my attention, whether it comes from the PBoC or the yen carry trade

Tim Lee of Pi Economics estimates that about a $1 trillion of private money is now betting that the yen will stay fairly weak.    Tim Lee, of Pi Economics, reckons as much as $1 trillion may be stake…

saudiusjapan

April 11, 2007

Emerging Markets
It is hard for the world to diversify away from the dollar when the world’s holdings of dollars need to rise by about a trillion a year

OK, I probably should strike “world” and insert “the world’s governments” instead.  It is pretty clear that central banks and oil investment funds provided the bulk of the financing the US needed in …

em_reserve_growth_small

September 17, 2007

Financial Markets
The first true twenty-first century financial crisis?

Larry Summers – picking up on a phrase perhaps first used by Michel Camdessus -- liked to call the Mexican crisis the first financial crisis of the 21st century.   Mexico’s decision to exhaust its re…