Turkey’s presidential runoff election set for May 28 appears to favor longtime incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with little chance that he will ease up on his authoritarian ways.

The Assad regime and Arab capitals will reap the greatest rewards, but ordinary citizens and certain foreign governments involved in Syria’s war have less to gain.

Turkish President Erdogan and Syrian President Assad could see opportunities to extend their rules in the disaster that has killed tens of thousands and pushed relief systems to their limits.

A sweeping win in parliamentary elections helps Iranian conservatives in a time of mounting tensions with Washington, but record-low turnout signals fading public support for Iran’s hard-liners.

New U.S. sanctions under the Caesar Act could compound the economic turmoil threatening to undo the Assad regime.