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July 23, 2020

Economics
Revisiting the Ides of March, Part III: Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark

This is a guest blog by Josh Younger, an interest rate strategist at J.P. Morgan. Joshua Younger is employed by the Research Department of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All views expressed in this forum ar…

Revisiting the Ides of March, Part III: Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark

July 22, 2020

Economics
Revisiting the Ides of March, Part II: The Going Gets Weird

This is a guest blog by Josh Younger, an interest rate strategist at J.P. Morgan. Joshua Younger is employed by the Research Department of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All views expressed in this forum ar…

Revisiting the Ides of March, Part II: The Going Gets Weird

July 20, 2020

Economics
Revisiting the Ides of March, Part I: A Thousand Year Flood

This is a guest blog by Josh Younger, an interest rate strategist at J.P. Morgan. Joshua Younger is employed by the Research Department of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All views expressed in this forum ar…

Revisiting the Ides of March, Part I: A Thousand Year Flood

September 16, 2020

Currency Reserves
Asian Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market is Back. Bigly.

Joe Gagnon and Fred Bergsten have called the years from 2003 to 2013 the decade of manipulation, as a host of Asian countries protected their competitive position of their exporters by intervening ma…

Asian Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market is Back. Bigly.

September 7, 2020

Trade
The Return of Big Chinese Surpluses (And Large U.S. Deficits)

Global trade imbalances are, once again, largely the result of Chinese and American trade imbalances. China's surplus has increased even as the pandemic has reduced global trade, as has the U.S. defi…

The Return of Big Chinese Surpluses (And Large U.S. Deficits)

August 26, 2020

United States
Could Trade Agreements Help Limit Tax Competition?

There is, now, I hope a growing recognition that tax avoidance has a significant impact on the structure of global supply chains—some “supply” chains also function as tax chains, with transfer pricin…

Could Trade Agreements Help Limit Tax Competition?

August 20, 2020

Trade
Falling Trade, Rising Imbalances...

If nothing changes, China’s massive trade surplus will soon be an even bigger political and economic issue…as global trade imbalances are once again being made in China.

Falling Trade, Rising Imbalances...

August 21, 2020

Wars and Conflict
Five Movies About Foreign Intrigue Worth Watching

Each Friday this summer, we suggest foreign-policy-themed movies worth watching. This week: tales of espionage and conspiracy.

Movie posters clockwise from the top left: Bridge of Spies/Amazon; Notorious/ReelGood; The Third Man/FilmSite; Argo/Awards Circuit; The Spy Who Came in from the Cold/YouTube; Three Days of the Condor/FanArt.

August 12, 2020

United States
Weaker Dollar Means More Dollar Reserves

Large increases in dollar reserves tend to come during periods of dollar weakness, not periods of dollar strength. That is for a simple reason: many export-heavy countries still intervene heavily in …

Weaker Dollar Means More Dollar Reserves

August 14, 2020

World War II
Five Movies About World War II Worth Watching

Each Friday this summer, we suggest foreign-policy-themed movies worth watching. This week: films about the second World War.

Movie posters clockwise from the top left: Mrs. Miniver/TMDB; Schindler’s List/Amazon; The Longest Day/Amazon; Hacksaw Ridge/IMDB; Saving Private Ryan/Fathom Events; Twelve O’Clock High/Heritage Auctions.