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October 27, 2008

Financial Markets
The soaring yen

Back when it was fashionable to talk about the end of macroeconomic volatility, it was also common to note that volatility had disappeared from the currency market. The FT’s resident financial anth…

The soaring yen

October 27, 2008

Group of 7 (G7)
Can the G7 Stabilize the Yen?

The G7 has expressed concern over the implications of excessive yen volatility for financial and economic stability, but fell short of promising coordinated action. The graph above illustrates th…

Can the G7 Stabilize the Yen?

December 4, 2005

Financial Markets
The yen, for a change

The yen's trajectory at the end of 2005 seems a bit like the dollar's trajectory at the end of 2004.   With the yen at 120, companies like Toyota presumably have little incentive to ramp up t…

March 15, 2007

Financial Markets
Just how big is the yen carry trade?

Stephen Jen of Morgan Stanley insists not-so-big.  Or at least that the large size of the carry trade cannot be proved – and that the impact of any recent unwinding has been overstated.   That is his…

February 23, 2007

Monetary Policy
Can the yen ever be the un-dollar?

Binky Chadha and my friend Jens Nystedt of Deutsche Bank think so.In a world where the (net) global flow of capital is increasingly dominated by official flows (Chadha and Nystedt note "emerging mark…

February 10, 2007

Financial Markets
G-7 punts on the yen, as expected

The G-7 punted on the yen, more or less.  They didn't highlight yen weakness in their closely watched paragraph on exchange rates.  Though, as Morgan Stanley points out, the language on Japan ("J…

October 9, 2006

Financial Markets
Yet another reason to sell yen …

North Korea’s nuclear test.     At least that is an argument for selling yen that has long made a certain amount of sense.  Some other arguments for selling yen are, well, a bit more creative. …

November 7, 2005

United States
Renminbi hits multi-month highs v euro, yen

Do not let anyone tell you that China's economy requires a stable exchange rate, and consequently, it must remain pegged to the dollar.    China now trades almost as much with Europe as with the …

August 20, 2007

Financial Markets
If the US dollar is now a refuge, what is the yen?

The dollar rallied a bit last week, but nothing like the yen.The Wall Street Journal’s Mark Whitehouse conflates – at least in my view -- deleveraging with safe haven flows.   Deleveraging means that…

February 8, 2007

Emerging Markets
Why borrow yen to buy dollars, if you can buy Brazilian real …

Or, for that matter, Icelandic krona and Turkish lira … Borrowing at 1%, maybe less, in a depreciating currency, and buying an appreciating currency that pays 12.4% or so is pretty good business.  Th…