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February 12, 2007

Monetary Policy
Carry, carry, carry …

The debate over the size of the yen financed carry trade is far from settled.   Former (“The Yen carry trade is on in such huge size”) and current traders (“real money investors ain't short yen a…

November 1, 2019

Election 2020
Foreign Policy Roundup: Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, Israel, and Campaign Advisors

Each week, I look at what the presidential candidates are saying about foreign policy on the campaign trail. 

Bernie Sanders speaks at the J Street National Conference in Washington, DC, on October 28.

October 30, 2019

Nigeria
Nigerian Military Introduces Controversial Plans to Identify Terrorists and Criminals

Nigerian security services say that they have been requiring residents of the northeast—where Boko Haram is active—to produce identification cards on demand. The army claims that citizens are “cooperating” with the requirement, though it is hard to verify that claim. The army has now announced that it will extend the policy to the entire country in early November.

President Buhari looks at the camera, flanked by a Nigerian flag.

October 29, 2019

Islamic State
After Baghdadi: What Hurts the Islamic State May Help Al-Qaeda

Al-Qaeda could benefit from the death of the Islamic State’s leader, potentially regaining its worldwide reach and influence.

October 18, 2019

Cybersecurity
Cyber Week in Review: October 18, 2019

Huawei redeploys U.S.-linked executives and looks to other markets; U.S. cyberattacks against Iran unveiled; Russian APT involved in 2016 DNC hack still active; United States evaluates election secur…

U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia's President Vladimir Putin shake hands during a joint news conference after their meeting in Helsinki, Finland, July 16, 2018.

October 15, 2019

Taiwan
What Does Taiwan’s Hidden Forward Book Mean for Taiwan’s Financial Stability and U.S. Currency Policy?

Taiwan's central bank—and Taiwanese households—have taken on an awful lot of foreign currency risk over the years …

treasury fx intervention taiwan 4

October 11, 2019

Terrorism and Counterterrorism
Halle Shooting: The New Terrorism Reality

The attack in eastern Germany is another alarming example of how the terrorist threat is evolving, with more far-right perpetrators attempting to broadcast their brutality.

October 9, 2019

Taiwan
$130+ Billion in Undisclosed Foreign Exchange Intervention by Taiwan's Central Bank

Based on the profits and losses disclosed by Taiwan’s central bank, it appears that its true FX exposures exceed its disclosed foreign exchange reserves by USD 130bn, and perhaps by as much as USD 20…

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October 8, 2019

Iran
1970s Oil Crisis Redux or Oil Price Rout?

It has been four weeks since a major military attack on critical oil facilities in Saudi Arabia shocked the world and very little has happened to suggest such an event couldn’t happen again. That beg…

Some Motorists Ran Out of Gas Such as This Man in Portland and Had to Stand in Line with a Gas Can During the Fuel Crisis in the Pacific Northwest.

October 8, 2019

Cybersecurity
Ctrl + Shift + Delete: The GDPR’s Influence on National Security Posture

While the GDPR's "right to be forgotten" expands personal data privacy rights, it could complicate intelligence agencies' data collection efforts by allowing terrorists to request to have social medi…

A 3D-printed Twitter logo is seen in front of a computer screen on which an Islamic State flag is displayed