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August 25, 2005

Capital Flows
Peter Galbraith and Iraq

I think the folks over at TPM Café are right: David Brooks' latest New York Times column is a real flip-flop.  He has gone from celebrating the United States firm commitment to universal democrat…

July 18, 2007

$136 billion here, $131b there and pretty soon you are talking about real money …

China announced that it added $130.6b to its reserves in the second quarter, only a bit smaller than the $135.7b it added in the first quarter.  Most of the increase was real: if China had 5% of its …


December 2, 2007

China: selling Treasuries and buying yen? What do we know about how China manages its foreign assets?

Put the latest from Stratfor and Yves Smith (Naked Capitalism) together, and it seems like China may be scaling back on its holdings of US treasuries in order to buy yen.  Stratfor hints that China m…


September 29, 2007

Waiting for the Plenum

Michael PettisIt is hard to overestimate the importance to China's near-term and longer-term prospects of the 17th Plenum in two weeks.  These meetings, held every five years, are the main events…

December 10, 2007

The search for China’s missing foreign assets …

Yesterday I noted the remarkable slowdown in China’s reserve growth over the last few months.     Chinese reserve growth over the last three months – after adjusting for estimated valuation gains -- …


December 19, 2007

The alliance between China’s (nominally) communist government and Wall Street deepens …

The China investment corporation (the CIC) is investing $5b in Morgan Stanley, taking a 9.9% stake.That is a bit of a surprise, at least to me.   After the CIC's (mark to market) losses on Blacks…

November 13, 2007

China’s CPI numbers look bad

Michael PettisFinally the November CPI numbers for China are in.  I said I would try to write about other things besides China, but here I am, my third post on Brad's blog, and still nothing but …

December 10, 2007

China’s missing reserves

Chinese policy makers continue to take steps to try to limit capital inflows into China.    The recent 1% increase in the reserve ratio also suggests ongoing inflows, or at least the need to steriliz…


October 14, 2007

Why did China only add $100b to its fx reserves in the third quarter?

Chinese reserve growth, on the surface, seems to be slowing.   The q3 headline increase was “only” $101b – down from $135b in q1 and $130b in q2.   The actual slowdown is even more dramatic.    If Ch…

January 13, 2008

Are China’s foreign assets growing by $430b a year? $500b a year? Even more rapidly?

It is almost impossible to overstate the scale of China’s reserve growth. China just announced that its reserves increased by $461.9b in 2007. Its reserves "only" increased by $247.5b in 2006. …