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October 15, 2019

Taiwan
What Does Taiwan’s Hidden Forward Book Mean for Taiwan’s Financial Stability and U.S. Currency Policy?

Taiwan's central bank—and Taiwanese households—have taken on an awful lot of foreign currency risk over the years …

treasury fx intervention taiwan 4

October 9, 2019

Taiwan
$130+ Billion in Undisclosed Foreign Exchange Intervention by Taiwan's Central Bank

Based on the profits and losses disclosed by Taiwan’s central bank, it appears that its true FX exposures exceed its disclosed foreign exchange reserves by USD 130bn, and perhaps by as much as USD 20…

fig 19

October 8, 2019

Taiwan
Could Taiwan’s Commercial Banks Cover the Lifers' Hedging Need? (Part 4)

Who is on the other side of the massive ($250 billion) hedging need of Taiwan's life insurance industry? The local banking system covers at most a quarter of the life insurers hedging need, and forei…

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October 4, 2019

Taiwan
Shadow FX Intervention in Taiwan: Solving a 100+ billion dollar enigma (Part 2)

Large-scale purchases of foreign bonds have become the central flow sustaining Taiwan’s massive current account surplus and keeping the Taiwan dollar weak. The size of this flow raises the question o…

Shadow FX Intervention in Taiwan: Solving a 100+ billion dollar enigma (Part 2)

October 4, 2019

Taiwan
Shadow FX Intervention in Taiwan: Solving a 100+ billion dollar enigma (Part 3)

This is the third post in a series* on Taiwan's life insurers and their private & sovereign FX hedging counterparties. It’s the product of a collaboration with S.T.W**, a market participant and frien…

Shadow FX Intervention in Taiwan: Solving a 100+ billion dollar enigma (Part 3)

October 3, 2019

Taiwan
Shadow FX Intervention in Taiwan: Solving a 100+ Billion Dollar Enigma (Part 1)

Taiwan’s central bank, unlike most central banks, doesn’t disclose its position in FX derivatives. It really should. There is good reason to think its undisclosed exposure is quite substantial.   …

A Taiwan dollar note is seen in this illustration photo May 31, 2017.

January 6, 2016

Global
Economist Brad W. Setser Returns to CFR as Senior Fellow

Brad W. Setser returns to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) as a senior fellow with the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies. 

April 25, 2018

Ireland
Tax Avoidance and the Irish Balance of Payments

At this point, profit shifting by multinational corporations doesn’t distort Ireland’s balance of payments; it constitutes Ireland’s balance of payments.

Irish Flag and Apple Logo

November 19, 2019

United States
Trump’s Sisyphean Task: Bringing Down the U.S. Trade Deficit Without A Fall in the Dollar

Stalled export growth is more a function of the strong dollar than of Trump's trade wars. U.S. non-petrol exports haven't grown over the last five years.

Trump’s Sisyphean Task: Bringing Down the U.S. Trade Deficit Without A Fall in the Dollar

November 5, 2019

Uganda
How Will China React to Uganda’s Looming Debt Crisis?

Uganda is heading toward a debt crisis. According to a senior official at the Bank of Uganda, unless the country is able to sustain a growth rate of at least 7 percent—which economic projections show Uganda will not do—the country will default on its payments. As is the case for many African countries, China is Uganda’s largest creditor, making up 39 percent of total debt this past fiscal year. If Uganda defaults, it is unclear how China will react.

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping flanked by Chinese and Ugandan flags.