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July 23, 2020

Economics
Revisiting the Ides of March, Part III: Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark

This is a guest blog by Josh Younger, an interest rate strategist at J.P. Morgan. Joshua Younger is employed by the Research Department of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All views expressed in this forum ar…

Revisiting the Ides of March, Part III: Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark

July 22, 2020

Economics
Revisiting the Ides of March, Part II: The Going Gets Weird

This is a guest blog by Josh Younger, an interest rate strategist at J.P. Morgan. Joshua Younger is employed by the Research Department of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All views expressed in this forum ar…

Revisiting the Ides of March, Part II: The Going Gets Weird

July 20, 2020

Economics
Revisiting the Ides of March, Part I: A Thousand Year Flood

This is a guest blog by Josh Younger, an interest rate strategist at J.P. Morgan. Joshua Younger is employed by the Research Department of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All views expressed in this forum ar…

Revisiting the Ides of March, Part I: A Thousand Year Flood

October 7, 2020

Emerging Economies
Reframing the Collective Action Problem in Sovereign Bond Restructuring

A recent white paper from Lazard points out that emerging market sovereign bond holdings are often fairly concentrated among a handful of big players.  The main impediment to collective action may be…

Reframing the Collective Action Problem in Sovereign Bond Restructuring

September 16, 2020

Currency Reserves
Asian Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market is Back. Bigly.

Joe Gagnon and Fred Bergsten have called the years from 2003 to 2013 the decade of manipulation, as a host of Asian countries protected their competitive position of their exporters by intervening ma…

Asian Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market is Back. Bigly.

October 5, 2020

China
Record Chinese Bilateral Surpluses With the United States Are Not Mirrored in the U.S. Trade Data

Is China’s surplus with the United States back at a record level? It depends. In China’s data, China’s exports to the United States and its surplus with the United States are at all-time highs. The U…

Record Chinese Bilateral Surpluses With the United States Are Not Mirrored in the U.S. Trade Data

October 15, 2020

China
A Crack in the Wall? Not So Fast.

What can the quick rise—and equally quick fall—of a state-approved app that allows Chinese netizens limited access to western social media tell us about the CCP’s evolving approach to information, ce…

Visitors are seen at the booth of anti-virus software maker Qihoo 360 at the China International Software Expo in Beijing on June 29, 2018.

October 19, 2020

Cybersecurity
U.S. Strategy for Global Internet Security Needs to Better Leverage the Private Sector

Private sector firms have the ability to leverage their influence on global internet architecture to improve internet security.

Fiber optic cables carrying internet providers are seen running into a server room.

October 15, 2019

Taiwan
What Does Taiwan’s Hidden Forward Book Mean for Taiwan’s Financial Stability and U.S. Currency Policy?

Taiwan's central bank—and Taiwanese households—have taken on an awful lot of foreign currency risk over the years …

treasury fx intervention taiwan 4

October 9, 2019

Taiwan
$130+ Billion in Undisclosed Foreign Exchange Intervention by Taiwan's Central Bank

Based on the profits and losses disclosed by Taiwan’s central bank, it appears that its true FX exposures exceed its disclosed foreign exchange reserves by USD 130bn, and perhaps by as much as USD 20…

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