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April 30, 2005

Monetary Policy
So, have central banks lost interest in Treasuries?

Two apologies in advance: First, this is one my wonkier/ data-intensive kind of posts. Second, this post responds to a subscription only Wall Street Journal C4 article by Agnes Crane that ran last …

July 14, 2005

Capital Flows
Is oil always sold to the highest bidder?

I suspect that the US is not prepared for the implications of a world where China’s reserves are rising fast enough to allow China to finance the purchase of one Unocal every month. I also would bet…

October 23, 2005

China
China’s crazy numbers

The Big Picture is right.  China's growth numbers are not to be trusted.   China's growth almost certainly slowed more than the government acknowledged in say 1998 and 1999, after the Asian c…

January 5, 2006

China
Chinese Sterilization Watch

Three things to watch closely in 2006:The size of China's reserve increase.   Some say it is falling back from its recent $20 b or so monthly pace.  I am not convinced.   The amount of sterilizat…

January 6, 2005

Financial Markets
Already Conventional Wisdom?

It seems like Asian central bank support for the Treasury market -- and other fixed income markets -- has become part of the conventional wisdom recently. We know Bill Gross has long worried about t…

November 8, 2004

Pepsi is no longer red, white and blue

Buried deep within the Scott Kilman’s Monday WSJ article on rising food imports is the following gem:"Much of the Pepsi-Cola sold in the US is made from concentrate imported from places such as Irela…

November 30, 2004

United States
Their savings, our problem?

It seems like American households are now saving about a penny of every dollar they earn, and recently even less. Foreigners exporting to the US, in contrast, save roughly 35 cents of every dollar …

March 18, 2006

United States
What Geithner said. And then some

Most of the blogosphere has already weighed in on Tim Geithner's most recent speech.   I am a bit late to the party.   And I may not have much to add. I deeply agree with Geithner's argument…

March 12, 2007

China
Just what is in China’s portfolio? And do foreign central banks think Agencies are Treasuries?

China's decision to set up a new investment authority with a mandate to invest in a range of assets -- not just traditional reserve assets -- has attracted a lot of attention.  But as the Bank of…

March 28, 2007

United States
Global adjustment — the US, Europe, Asia and last but not least the oil exporters

Folks have been worrying about the current account deficit for so long that “Wall Street is downright bored with it.”    Trust me, I know.  But just because the world’s central banks have financed an…