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July 14, 2005

Capital Flows
Is oil always sold to the highest bidder?

I suspect that the US is not prepared for the implications of a world where China’s reserves are rising fast enough to allow China to finance the purchase of one Unocal every month. I also would bet…

October 23, 2005

China
China’s crazy numbers

The Big Picture is right.  China's growth numbers are not to be trusted.   China's growth almost certainly slowed more than the government acknowledged in say 1998 and 1999, after the Asian c…

January 5, 2006

China
Chinese Sterilization Watch

Three things to watch closely in 2006:The size of China's reserve increase.   Some say it is falling back from its recent $20 b or so monthly pace.  I am not convinced.   The amount of sterilizat…

March 18, 2006

United States
What Geithner said. And then some

Most of the blogosphere has already weighed in on Tim Geithner's most recent speech.   I am a bit late to the party.   And I may not have much to add. I deeply agree with Geithner's argument…

March 12, 2007

China
Just what is in China’s portfolio? And do foreign central banks think Agencies are Treasuries?

China's decision to set up a new investment authority with a mandate to invest in a range of assets -- not just traditional reserve assets -- has attracted a lot of attention.  But as the Bank of…

April 17, 2007

Financial Markets
Saudi riyal, Kuwait dinar, UAE dirham hit multi-year lows v. the pound …

They are also getting close to a record low v. the euro. Yet oil is, well, still rather strong.   Against the dollar.  But also against the pound and euro.   The euro and pound have gained significan…

August 22, 2007

China
The one thing the US really exports to China

John Cassidy is right.  The leading US export to China is high-quality housing debt.   The toxic waste generally went elsewhere – thought there are now hints that China (perhaps the state bank…

china_debt_tic_data_mid_07

August 28, 2007

China
Just how large is China’s subprime exposure?

Josef Joffe: [Can Moscow and Beijing] mend a global financial system battered by subprime crisis?   Where are the central banks of Russia and China?  Hmmm.    The fact that China and the oi…

September 4, 2007

China
Close to $500b of debt purchased over the last 18 months, and not a cent of subprime …

China’s reserve managers – the State Administration of Foreign Exchange – recently reported that they have exactly zero exposure to US subprime mortgages.    “"China's official forex reserves d…

May 20, 2007

China
What, if anything, has China decided to do differently?

China widened the band around the RMB and raised (slightly) interest rates, with the rate on deposits going up more than the rate on lending.     It hardly seemed like a major policy shift to me – bu…