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January 2, 2005

United States
Bretton Woods Two Lives

The Fed has started to tighten, Greenspan said anyone who has not hedged their interest rate risk desires to lose money. Yet higher short-term rates have not led to higher long-term rates. In the j…

January 18, 2005

Financial Markets
The November TIC data: Matching debtor and creditor side data

The November TIC data has been out since this morning. The TIC data provides information about the most important way the US is financing its ongoing current account deficit: selling long-term secu…

January 9, 2005

Financial Markets
The price of a European vacation

As readers of this blog no doubt know, the dollar rallied v. the euro last week. Not that most of America noticed. In much of America’s heartland, the dollar’s value does not make the financial new…

April 15, 2005

Emerging Markets
Large players in large markets, part two

Brad DeLong is rather skilled at squeezing the fat off a post, and then creating something that is sharper, more succinct and often far better than the initial post. I know. He does it to me every n…

April 18, 2005

Financial Markets
Tactical Issue Linkages

Dan Drezner has an interesting post up, laying out the components of a "serious" approach to encouraging (or pressuring) China to change its exchange rate peg. He nicely lays out the options, thoug…

February 16, 2005

Monetary Policy
Did Bretton Woods 2 die and no one notice?

That, by the way, would be a bit of a blow for Nouriel Roubini and myself -- not just Dooley, Garber, Folkerts-Landau. Nouriel and I argue the Bretton Woods 2 of central bank financing of the US cur…

April 4, 2005

United States
McKinsey says the trade deficit does not matter

What is good for IBM (oops, Lenovo) is good for America.OK, that is a cheap shot.Yesterday’s Wall Street Journal published a column by Jon Hilsenrath that drew on work by Diana Farrell and the McKins…

April 17, 2005

Economics
A few things Europe does (relatively) well

Some Europeans enjoy taking a few rhetorical pot shots at America every now and then. More and more Americans enjoy reciprocating.I suspect that US criticism of Europe will step up a gear in the nea…

December 10, 2004

Emerging Markets
Why Argentina should do its bond exchange, ASAP

Yields on Latin American bonds have not been this low for a long time. It is hard to believe that Brazil’s 20 year dollar bond trades at a yield of only 8%, and most long-term Brazilian bonds are in …

May 1, 2005

China
Will China get hit by the cover jinx?

It is a bit hard to start shorting the renminbi (RMB/ the Chinese currency) just because China has now made its appearance on the cover of Newsweek. It is hard to short something that has yet to be …