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April 6, 2005

Monetary Policy
Sometimes, it is worth listening to what policy makers in emerging economies are saying

The Koreans, I suspect, let the cat out of the bag. Korea knows the value of reserves, and the risks of holding too few reserves. Indeed, absent an IMF loan and a last-second deal with their credit…

October 31, 2005

Monetary Policy
In an attempt to be fair and balanced

Here is a link to a paper by two IMF economists (Aizenmann and Lee) that concludes China really is building up its reserves as a precaution against a crisis, not just to support its export sector (im…

In an attempt to be fair and balanced

September 8, 2006

Monetary Policy
Watch out China, you may soon be (financially) out-gunned …

China’s July reserve increase – at least if the end-July total of $954.5b that the Chinese leaked is right (Lex had a slightly higher number) – was pathetic. A measly $14b.  Not the manly $20…

September 18, 2006

Monetary Policy
China’s future?

The Bank of Korea is taking ongoing losses on its reserve holdings.    South Korea's central bank may have a loss of as much as 3 trillion won ($3.1 billion) in 2006 because of interest costs f…

February 21, 2007

Financial Markets
The size of the global carry trade (once again)

The Bank of Japan's recent rate hike doesn't seem to have dented the world's appetite for carry trades.  If anything, the BoJ's signal that it won't changes rates too quickly seem…

March 15, 2007

Financial Markets
Just how big is the yen carry trade?

Stephen Jen of Morgan Stanley insists not-so-big.  Or at least that the large size of the carry trade cannot be proved – and that the impact of any recent unwinding has been overstated.   That is his…

March 28, 2007

United States
Global adjustment — the US, Europe, Asia and last but not least the oil exporters

Folks have been worrying about the current account deficit for so long that “Wall Street is downright bored with it.”    Trust me, I know.  But just because the world’s central banks have financed an…

February 2, 2007

Financial Markets
A trillion dollars gets my attention, whether it comes from the PBoC or the yen carry trade

Tim Lee of Pi Economics estimates that about a $1 trillion of private money is now betting that the yen will stay fairly weak.    Tim Lee, of Pi Economics, reckons as much as $1 trillion may be stake…


September 3, 2007

United States
The post-industrial economy?

Buried in a column on iconoclastic  (and fashionista) tax policy expert Lee Shephard is this little gem:"“The whole Midwest was engaged in metal-bashing of some sort back then[when she was growing up…

April 16, 2008

Blog envy: on Europe, the G-7 and the Fed

Paul Krugman (who hardly needs a plug from me), Macro Man and Steve Waldman (of interfluidity) have all written posts that I wish I had written. Krugman elegantly shows that a lot of American stereo…