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October 30, 2018

China
Where Will the Yuan Go Next? China's Big Choice

China could widen the trading band around its currency in response to Trump's tariffs, but that wouldn't give it full policy autonomy. It would still need to defend the new edge of any trading band.

Where Will the Yuan Go Next?  China's Big Choice

October 17, 2017

China
Bitcoin and the Yuan

This is a guest post by Cole Frank, a research associate at the Council on Foreign Relations. China watchers are always looking for new ways to gauge capital flows and pressure on the yuan. The mo…

Bitcoin and the Yuan

July 30, 2009

China
The Yuan

China has long pegged its currency to the Dollar.  After the USD started to depreciate against many currencies in 2002, expectations emerged that China would move away from a tight dollar peg.  Fol…

repegged

January 17, 2019

China
Will China’s Currency Hit a Wall?

Worry about China’s slowing economy in 2019, not its balance of payments…

Will China’s Currency Hit a Wall?

August 30, 2016

China
The 2016 Yuan Depreciation

The Bank for International Settlements’ (BIS) broad effective index is the gold standard for assessing exchange rates. And the BIS shows—building on a point that George Magnus has made—that China’s c…

Real-effective-CNY

December 13, 2018

China
Why Hasn't China Needed to Intervene More This Year?

The prospects for moving from a three month truce to a more durable ceasefire and eventual resolution of the current trade conflict with China have become a central focus of global markets. The is…

Why Hasn't China Needed to Intervene More This Year?

November 29, 2018

Economics
The Digital Key to Inclusive Growth

So far, it seems that the rise of the digital economy has already contributed to a broad pattern of income and job polarization in the developed world. Yet digital technology can play a powerful role…

Data Mobile Phones

November 19, 2018

China
China’s Naturally Triangular Trade… and What China’s Bilateral Trade Data Is Telling Us Right Now

The bilateral trade data is useful, even if Trump doesn’t always interpret it correctly…

China’s Naturally Triangular Trade… and What China’s Bilateral Trade Data Is Telling Us Right Now

December 5, 2018

Emerging Markets
What’s in Store for Emerging Markets?

Market pressure on Turkey and Argentina has abated a bit, thanks to a large IMF program that funds Argentina for another year and the apparent ability of Turkey’s banks to roll over a large share of …

What’s in Store for Emerging Markets?

November 9, 2018

Oil and Petroleum Products
Emerging Market Contagion Could Hit the Oil Industry

This is a guest post by Benjamin Silliman, research associate for Energy Security and Climate Change at the Council on Foreign Relations.  When the Trump administration announced temporary waivers…

Turkish Lira and Dollar banknotes.