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September 28, 2020

China
Chasing Shadows in China’s Balance of Payments Data

China’s second quarter balance of payments data points to a significant increase in the foreign asset accumulation of the state banking system. That at least raises the question of whether China’s au…

Chasing Shadows in China’s Balance of Payments Data

September 16, 2020

United States
Why the Fed Bond Binge Will Boost Inflation

After the 2008 financial crisis, it took five years of quantitative easing (QE) for the Fed’s balance sheet to grow $1.8 trillion. This year, once the pandemic began, it took less than five month…

Why the Fed Bond Binge Will Boost Inflation

September 16, 2020

Currency Reserves
Asian Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market is Back. Bigly.

Joe Gagnon and Fred Bergsten have called the years from 2003 to 2013 the decade of manipulation, as a host of Asian countries protected their competitive position of their exporters by intervening ma…

Asian Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market is Back. Bigly.

September 9, 2020

United States
The National Debt Dilemma

With the U.S. national debt already exceeding $16 trillion, President Trump’s tax reform and budget deals with Congress have added to the country’s deficits. CFR explores the origins of the national debt, the risks it presents, and the outlook for change.

US-Debt-BGR-Header-2-1160x630.jpg

September 8, 2020

United States
Winners and Losers of the Pandemic Economy

While it is true that bullish equity markets are out of step with the historic contraction in the real economy, to say that they are disconnected from it misses the point. In fact, the lofty valuatio…

S&P 500 trading screens are displayed at the Nasdaq building in Times Square as the city continues Phase 4 of re-opening following restrictions imposed to slow the spread of coronavirus in New York City.

August 24, 2020

United States
U.S. Disaster Relief at Home and Abroad

The U.S. government responds to scores of disasters each year, coordinating closely with state, local, and foreign partners. However, more frequent and severe storms, fires, and floods are straining …

A person stands, back to the camera, in front of piles and rubbles and a house. The sky is pink and purple from the setting sun.

May 5, 2020

Turkey
Turkey Shows the Value of Balance Sheet Analysis

Selling reserves borrowed from the banks ultimately puts the health of Turkey's banks at risk.

Turkish External Debt (USD BIllions)

August 20, 2020

International Organizations
The IMF: The World’s Controversial Financial Firefighter

The International Monetary Fund, both criticized and lauded for its efforts to promote financial stability, continues to find itself at the forefront of global economic crisis management.

IMF Governors' meeting

May 27, 2020

Coronavirus
The COVID-19 Crisis in Emerging Markets Demands a Once-in-a-Century Response

"The novel coronavirus plunged emerging markets into crisis. As investors rushed to safety, major emerging economies lost more than $100 billion in foreign currency reserves in the month of March alo…

A bank that was burned during street protests in Tripoli, Lebanon, April 2020

July 23, 2020

Economics
Revisiting the Ides of March, Part III: Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark

This is a guest blog by Josh Younger, an interest rate strategist at J.P. Morgan. Joshua Younger is employed by the Research Department of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All views expressed in this forum ar…

Revisiting the Ides of March, Part III: Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark