There is a common sense that social security is bankrupt and people now in their 20s and 30s won’t get anything from it. That is false. Social security can fund all projected benefits until someti…

The latest monthly trade data came out today, and was worse than expected -- though in my view that indicates expectations have yet to catch up with reality. Exports have been stuck in the $95-96 bi…

One of the world’s ironies is that even as John Snow putters on about how currency values should be set by market forces, the market -- or at least the private market -- is now playing a comparativel…

The Treasury provides monthly data on foreign purchases of US long-term securities. It is not a complete look at how the US is funding its trade and current account deficit, but it is the best snap …

My harping on the fact that US economic policy now has to pass a global test is not simply meant to score rhetorical points. I suspect that the same folks who financed the expansion of the US curren…

The Fed has started to tighten, Greenspan said anyone who has not hedged their interest rate risk desires to lose money. Yet higher short-term rates have not led to higher long-term rates. In the j…

Nouriel and I went out on a bit of a limb in this paper. Since the beginning of the year, the dollar has rallied and yields on the ten-year and thirty year treasury bond have fallen: both market mov…

I know, I know, Morgan Stanley’s investors have spoken, and there is no bond market bubble. But the federal government certainly is swimming in a sea of red ink.I hope we have asked the Bank of Japan…