September 20, 2004
Budget, Debt, and DeficitsThere is a common sense that social security is bankrupt and people now in their 20s and 30s won’t get anything from it. That is false. Social security can fund all projected benefits until someti…
October 14, 2004
United StatesThe latest monthly trade data came out today, and was worse than expected -- though in my view that indicates expectations have yet to catch up with reality. Exports have been stuck in the $95-96 bi…
November 20, 2004
United StatesOne of the world’s ironies is that even as John Snow putters on about how currency values should be set by market forces, the market -- or at least the private market -- is now playing a comparativel…
October 19, 2004
United StatesThe Treasury provides monthly data on foreign purchases of US long-term securities. It is not a complete look at how the US is funding its trade and current account deficit, but it is the best snap …
December 11, 2004
United StatesMy harping on the fact that US economic policy now has to pass a global test is not simply meant to score rhetorical points. I suspect that the same folks who financed the expansion of the US curren…
December 5, 2004
Sunday’s New York Times article on US consumer culture -- and its financial enablers -- has a domestic focus. But doesn’t the term "borrower-industrial complex" describe American’s relationship with…
January 8, 2005
A standard rule of thumb, mentioned by Paul Blustein in his excellent look at the impact of a falling dollar on US trade last week, is that a 10% fall in the broad dollar leads to a $100 billion fall…
November 24, 2004
Financial MarketsJust a reminder of what falling dollar currently means. Dollar depreciation is clearly part of what is needed to bring the US trade deficit down to a more sustainable level. But what is the case fo…
January 2, 2005
United StatesThe Fed has started to tighten, Greenspan said anyone who has not hedged their interest rate risk desires to lose money. Yet higher short-term rates have not led to higher long-term rates. In the j…
January 25, 2005
Budget, Debt, and DeficitsI know, I know, Morgan Stanley’s investors have spoken, and there is no bond market bubble. But the federal government certainly is swimming in a sea of red ink.I hope we have asked the Bank of Japan…