2014 Conflict Prevention Priorities: Three Things to Know
Videos

2014 Conflict Prevention Priorities: Three Things to Know

December 20, 2013 4:21 pm (EST)

2014 Conflict Prevention Priorities: Three Things to Know
Explainer Video

CFR’s Center for Preventive Action conducts an annual survey of leading experts assessing global conflict from several conceivable sources. Each conflict is examined in regard to likelihood and role in affecting U.S. interests. To help summarize the findings of the latest survey, Paul Stares, CFR’s Director of the Center for Preventive Action, prioritizes three regions to keep an eye on in 2014:

More From Our Experts

Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa: With the civil war in Syria now close to entering its third year, an unresolved political situation in Egypt, and a surge in sectarian violence in Iraq, the Middle East and North Africa are regions to watch in 2014, Stares says. Both regions are on the precipice of destabilization as Jordan faces "intense strain" from the inflow of Syrian refugees and Libya’s central power authority "remains in doubt" in contrast to the rising power of militant groups, Stares warns.

East Asian Brinksmanship: In North Korea, it is unknown if the recent purge of senior officials, including leader Kim Jong-un’s uncle, will "presage a period of acute instability and more military provocations," Stares says. Meanwhile, in the East China Sea, Japan and China have been flexing their military muscles in an ongoing territorial row over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. "The risk of either a miscalculation or an accident occurring that leads to serious incident between the two countries is very real," Stares says.

More From Our Experts

Insecurity in Afghanistan and Pakistan: There is concern that a U.S. drawdown in Afghanistan will give way to growing instability and violence, according to Stares. Also, in Pakistan, Stares says, a "fragile" political climate and a weak relationship with neighboring India cause fears that "militant activity in Kashmir could cause another major crisis in the short term."

Top Stories on CFR

United States

Each Friday, I look at what the presidential contenders are saying about foreign policy. This Week: Joe Biden doesn’t want one of America’s closest allies to buy a once iconic American company.

Immigration and Migration

Dara Lind, a senior fellow at the American Immigration Council, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss the record surge in migrants and asylum seekers crossing the U.S. southern border.

Center for Preventive Action

Every January, CFR’s annual Preventive Priorities Survey analyzes the conflicts most likely to occur in the year ahead and measures their potential impact. For the first time, the survey anticipates that this year, 2024, the United States will contend not only with a slew of global threats, but also a high risk of upheaval within its own borders. Is the country prepared for the eruption of election-related instability at home while wars continue to rage abroad?