Philippines

Sharone Tobias and Will Piekos look at the top five stories in Asia this week. 1. China announces sweeping reforms. A wide range of reforms were announced following China’s third plenum of the Eighteenth Party Congress, with many commentators surprised by the scope of  President Xi Jinping’s reform campaign. Though they are too expansive to go into detail here, issues that were tackled included: relaxation of the one-child policy, abolishment of the re-education through labor system, state-owned enterprise reform, interest rate and currency regime liberalization, and establishment of an economic reform working group and a new State Security Council. 2. Typhoon kills thousands in the Philippines. The Philippine government’s official web site reported 3,631 confirmed casualties from Typhoon Haiyan on Thursday, though the United Nations has raised the death toll to 4,460. The main casualties were residents of the city of Tacloban in central Philippines, where many complained of a lack of logistics support, manpower, and supplies. There have also been widespread accounts of looting. 3. China increases aid to devastated Philippines. China announced on Thursday that it is increasing its humanitarian assistance to the Philippines to $1.6 million after it was criticized for only offering $100,000—the new amount is still less than that ($2.7 million) donated by Swedish furniture company Ikea. Many believe that the small donation was a political statement related to the two countries’ territorial disputes in the South China Sea. By contrast, the United States is sending $20 million, Japan is providing $10 million in aid, and Indonesia is giving $2 million. The United States and Japan are also sending troops, naval vessels, and aircraft to aid the in the cleanup and assistance efforts. 4. Court order throws off Maldivian elections. A third attempt at presidential elections was derailed by a court order this week, pushing elections back to November 16. The two leading candidates for the Maldivian presidency, Mohamed Nasheed and Abdulla Yameen, will face off in a runoff election. Mr. Nasheed is expected to win, and his supporters believe the courts, which are loyal to Mr. Yameen’s half-brother (who ruled the Maldives for thirty years), are stalling. The opposition was also upset that the sitting president, Mohammed Waheed Hassan, did not leave office when his term expired; instead, he plans to wait until the runoff election. 5. Caroline Kennedy takes up post in Tokyo. The new U.S. ambassador to Japan arrived in Tokyo on Friday—she is the first woman to serve in the post. Her appointment was widely acclaimed in Japan, as she has the ear of President Obama and comes from a political family familiar to many. Bonus: Batman bin Suparman jailed in Singapore. A young man with the curious name Batman bin Suparman has been jailed on drugs and theft charges in Singapore. Suparman is a not-unheard-of surname in Indonesia; the prefix Su- is often found at the beginning of surnames in Java. Batman, however, is not an Indonesian name at all—it seems the man’s parents simply had an interesting sense of humor. Correction: a previous version of this post stated that China had donated $1.6 billion in aid, while Ikea provided $2.7 billion. The correct amounts are $1.6 million and $2.7 million, respectively.

In the wake of one of the most powerful storms ever to hit Southeast Asia, Typhoon Haiyan, the Philippines is counting its dead and assessing the massive damage to infrastructure from the storm, particularly in Leyte province. The scope of the devastation in Leyte was, on Sunday, being compared by some disaster specialists to the destruction wrought by the 2004 Asian tsunami, which completely leveled parts of Aceh in Indonesia and other parts of Southeast Asia, like the Thai coast around Phuket. The typhoon was more powerful than most, but the Philippines has, sadly, become used to this type of devastation: the country is right in the path of the most dangerous Asian typhoons, and was hit by another deadly storm only a few weeks ago. The Philippines suffers from bad luck, and as one of the poorest countries in East Asia, it could not be expected to have the storm warning systems and storm-safe infrastructure of countries like Japan or Singapore. Still, the horrific quality of infrastructure in the Philippines—even worse than countries in the region with similar levels of economic development—certainly has made these storms deadlier. Because the Philippines is one of the most unequal and corrupt countries in Asia, funds for housing projects, roads, and seawalls and other public monies routinely vanish into the pockets of political dynasties; before the typhoon the country was riveted by a high-profile case involving massive slush funds amassed by several prominent politicians. Several news reports about Typhoon Haiyan already have noted that the horrendous, ramshackle nature of storm protection and houses in Leyte contributed to the high death toll and property damage. Although President Benigno Aquino has made some inroads into fighting corruption, his administration still faces an uphill battle, and many areas, including Leyte, remain dominated by patronage networks and a few political clans. The continuing feudalism has made it hard to attract investment in infrastructure, and the country certainly has not helped the cause of infrastructure upgrading by alienating China, whose state-owned companies have been busily building infrastructure for most other countries in Southeast Asia. The most recent high-profile corruption scandal appears to have catalyzed middle-class Filipino sentiment, potentially leading to the type of public outcry against corruption that could actually turn the country’s political course. In the terrible aftermath of Typhoon Haiyan, public pressure to reduce graft in construction projects, and to focus more intensely on upgrading infrastructure, would be at least one positive outcome.

Over the past two weeks, a rebel group in the Muslim-majority southern Philippines, which long has been plagued by numerous insurgencies/bandits, has essentially laid siege to the southern city of Zamboanga, taking numerous hostages and sparking a protracted response from the Armed Forces of the Philippines. The rebels, who came from the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) group, had at one point taken more than one hundred hostages, and the fighting between the MNLF and the army has now killed nearly 120 people and displaced over 100,000 Filipinos. The siege has attracted significant international media attention, because the fighting has forced so many to flee, and the rebels have made whole residential areas free-fire zones, hiding among civilians and taking seemingly as many hostages as possible. The current violence has been brutal and actually started some four weeks ago, when a group of fighters loyal to former MNLF leader Nur Misuari began launching attacks. The MNLF actually had signed a peace agreement with Manila in 1996, and Misuari had become regional governor of part of the southern Philippines, but his misrule as governor eventually led even many of his own followers to push him out of office, and sharply curtailed the popularity of the MNLF, now part of the southern government, among southerners. Some MNLF fighters stuck to the peace deal; others, including Misuari, took up arms again, as the MNLF argued with the government over the implementation of the peace deal, including how to share the proceeds of mining in the south, how former MNLF fighters would be employed, and other issues. But the sad brutality of the siege, made worse by the Philippines’ military’s scorched earth tactics (Human Rights Watch chronicles abuses on both sides here), does not mean that the southern insurgency is gaining ground. In contrast to southern Thailand, where the insurgency has gained adherents and caused increasing casualties over the past decade, overall the fighting in the southern Philippines, which has gone on since the MNLF was founded in the late 1960s and early 1970s, actually has been winding down. Although southerners retain intense grievances at being a permanent minority in the Catholic-dominated Philippines, and having little representation at the highest levels of government, the south has begun to develop in recent years, after being granted some degree of economic, cultural, and political autonomy. Indeed, most people in the southern Philippines have grown tired of insurgency, and the government of President Benigno Aquino III has bypassed the MNLF holdouts and conducted effective peace negotiations with the insurgent leaders willing to work on a final status agreement that would hammer out all major issues relating to the future of the south. In fact, Aquino, who has personally overseen the peace process, investing his credibility in it, is close to signing a permanent peace deal with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, another southern insurgent group that, in recent years, has become more powerful and more popular than the MNLF, which bungling its attempt to govern part of the south. Given the MNLF’s waning power, and Aquino’s effective peace negotiations, the Zamboanga siege, then, though tragic, should not be viewed as the eruption of new waves of violence in the southern Philippines. The fighting is unlikely to lead to more, similar attacks, or to attract young southerners and lead them to form their own, new insurgent cells, as has occurred in southern Thailand in recent years. In reality, the siege of Zamboanga is a desperate attempt by the MNLF splinter group to show that, in the face of Aquino’s peace negotiations, and of the rival MILF’s growing power in the south (after the peace deal is concluded, former MILF leaders well could be governing much of the south), parts of the MNLF, including Nur Misuari (who is 71 years old), still have some clout. The Zamboanga fighting, indeed, is a last stand.

Will Piekos and Sharone Tobias look at the top five stories in Asia this week. 1. Chinese President wraps up trip to Central Asia. President Xi Jinping ended a ten-day trip to Central Asia with a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) last weekend. Xi signed a number of bilateral economic and energy deals with countries in the region, and the SCO reached consensus on a number of foreign policy issues (largely in line with Chinese and Russian interests). With the U.S. withdrawing from Afghanistan in 2014, Central Asia is a region ripe for Chinese leadership. 2. Violence nears end in Philippines. After the breakdown of last week’s truce, fighting in the southern city of Zamboanga will soon be over as more Muslim rebels were forced to surrender on Friday. The rebels, part of the Moro National Liberation Front that is seeking an independent state, have dwindled to around fifty from the original 200. Still, they remain dangerous, and three were killed by a bomb planted inside a bus earlier today. 3. Abe orders all of Fukushima’s surviving reactors to shut down. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ordered all nuclear power plant reactors from the Fukushima Daiichi plant scrapped, rather than only four as previously announced. The decision comes as Japan is trying to reassure the Olympic Committee and the public about its safety after being awarded the opportunity to host the 2020 Summer Olympics. Tokyo won the title of host city for the Summer Olympic Games over Istanbul by a vote of sixty to thirty-six. Buenos Aires and Madrid were also contenders. 4. Shuttered Kaesong complex stirs back to life. Cars and trucks flooded across the border between North and South Korea early this week, as the Kaesong industrial park restarted operations after a 166-day hiatus. The complex was closed in April, when rising tensions triggered the North to withdraw its workers. It houses 123 South Korean factories and employs over 50,000 North Koreans; it is the last joint inter-Korean project and an important source of hard currency for Pyongyang. 5. Caroline Kennedy nears confirmation for ambassadorship to Japan. Caroline Kennedy was warmly received at a confirmation hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Thursday. Lawmakers questioned her on issues ranging from tensions in the East China Sea, Japan’s trade relations with Iran, and recovery from the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Senator Tim Kaine noted that Kennedy’s father served in Japan during World War II, citing the fact as evidence of the family’s long history of representing the United States in the country. If confirmed, Kennedy will have to contend with policy issues such as increased tensions between China and Japan and implementing the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Bonus: Muslims in Indonesia protest Miss World beauty pageant. Conservative Muslims have held protests against the Miss World beauty pageant, and some have promised violence. An estimated 6,000 have already booked flights and hotel rooms for the contest, scheduled to be held next week. It is likely that the contest will be held in Bali, a majority-Hindu island, instead. A Muslim-only beauty pageant, called World Muslimah, was held in Jakarta earlier this week. All contestants were required to wear head coverings, were judged on their knowledge of the Quran rather than conventional beauty, and the winner was awarded trips to Mecca and India.

Over the past year, China’s disputes over the South China Sea, which had sharply divided Beijing from Southeast Asian claimants like the Philippines, Malaysia, and especially Vietnam, seems to have cooled somewhat. China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have been working on a code of conduct to manage disputes over the Sea and reduce tensions before they flare up. But these are only short-term fixes. New President Xi Jinping clearly is more of a nationalist than his immediate predecessors, and more willing to openly support a growing Chinese military presence in disputed waters. He also seems more willing to deal out diplomatic snubs to leaders in the region who dare dispute China’s claims; in August Beijing abruptly withdrew an invitation for Philippines President Benigno Aquino III to a major trade show in China, after Aquino launched negotiations with the United States to increase the American military presence in the Philippines. Vietnamese and Philippine leaders also have become more willing to push their claims, and, in the case of the Philippines, to turn to the United States for major help. Meanwhile, China has proven totally unwilling to agree to any binding permanent solution to overlapping claims in the South China Sea. So, are there any real solutions to the South China Sea crisis and to China’s other potentially explosive maritime disputes?  On CFR’s new interactive InfoGuide on China’s maritime disputes, you can find tons of information about the disputes, possible solutions, and the likelihood that these territorial disputes might lead to open conflict. Find the new interactive guide here.

Will Piekos and Sharone Tobias look at the top five stories in Asia this week. 1. Chinese economy posts strong numbers. Chinese overseas shipments in August rose 7.2 percent from a year earlier, increasing more than originally estimated, while inflation stayed below the government target. The industrial sector also showed strong numbers in August, climbing 10.4 percent year-to-year and posting the highest growth rate since March 2012. The data, along with other positive reports, pushed stocks to a three-month high, and experts are generally optimistic about the direction of China’s economy. 2. North Korea might have restarted a nuclear reactor.  Commercial satellite images from August 31 show two plumes of white steam rising from a turbine building next to the reactor, according to a report from the U.S.-Korea Institute at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. North Korea stated its intention to restart the reactor in the spring when tensions between the two Koreas were high; prior to that, the reactor had been inactive for six years. The reactor, which experts say does not effectively produce electricity, is capable of producing thirteen pounds of weapons-grade plutonium per year, enough for one or two bombs. 3. Bomb in Guilin, China, kills two, injures scores. A migrant worker upset that his child was unable to attend a local school detonated a bomb outside the school on Monday, killing himself and a woman next to him. Reports estimate about forty-five people were injured, including many students on their way to class. Migrant workers without the proper “hukou” household registration are not entitled to the same privileges and social services as urban residents; the issue has been trumpeted by Premier Li Keqiang as one of China’s most important reforms. 4. China to limit coal production, cars in an effort to curb pollution. The Chinese government unveiled an ambitious plan [Chinese] yesterday to reduce key indicators of air pollution by 25 percent in Beijing and the surrounding provinces by 2017. In January, air pollution in Beijing reached forty times the exposure limit recommended by the World Health Organization, and poor air quality is thought to have accounted for 1.2 million premature deaths in China in 2010. The new plan has been praised for its focus on regional coordination and binding air quality targets, but some experts say it does not do enough to reduce vehicle emissions. 5. Philippine army and separatist militants forge truce after five days of fighting. Around 200 members of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) swept into Zamboanga, a city of 800,000 in the southern island of Mindanao on Monday, taking 180 people hostage in an attempt to declare independence. A cease-fire was forged today between the two groups after at least eighteen were killed in skirmishes. The MNLF are an offshoot of the larger Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), which was founded in the 1960s with the goal of establishing an autonomous Muslim region in the southern party of the country; the MNLF wants to create an independent nation. The insurgency has claimed more than 120,000 lives since its beginning. The clashes are one of the biggest challenges President Benigno Aquino III faces, and he has stated that he wants to solve the conflict by the end of his administration in 2016. Bonus: Tomb of China’s “female prime minister” has been discovered. Shangguan Wan’er, who lived from 664-710 CE, was a famous politician and poet who served empress Wu Zetian, China’s first female ruler. Her tomb, repeatedly ransacked, was found this week near an airport in Shaanxi province. She was killed in a palace coup, and her life inspired a TV series. Due to technical difficulties, we were unable to post until Saturday, September 14. We apologize for the delay.

Will Piekos and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia this week. 1. The SEC probes JPMorgan amid allegations that it hired Chinese princelings. The U.S. Justice Department and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has begun an investigation into whether JPMorgan Chase hired the children of senior Chinese officials to help secure business in a now-defunct program called "Sons and Daughters." The scrutiny began in Hong Kong and now has spread through the bank’s Asia offices; the bank has flagged more than 200 hires for review. JPMorgan has not yet been accused of any illegal acts, but they might have violated the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, which forbids granting personal favors to government officials in exchange for business. One example included the son of Tang Shuangning, chairman of a state-run financial conglomerate, who was hired and retained even after other employees questioned his financial expertise. 2. Chinese government begins massive campaign against online “rumormongering.” The Chinese government wants citizens to adhere to the “seven base lines” of proper internet conduct and curb “rumormongering” online. After the Beijing Internet Conference last week, the government released "seven base lines" for proper Internet conduct. State-run media has released a flurry of op-eds and run prime-time TV spots about the issue [links in Chinese]. Multiple people have been arrested for spreading rumors through microblogging accounts, and yesterday, twenty-seven people were arrested for operating 312 microblogging accounts with millions of followers [Chinese]. Xinhua also released an op-ed saying that government officials should not be exempt from anti-rumormongering laws, giving four examples of recent rumors spread by officials. 3. Filipino businesswoman at center of corruption scandal detained. Janet Lim-Napoles, a wealthy Manila businesswoman, was arrested for the "illegal detention" of a witness who claims she diverted billions of pesos from poverty-reduction programs for her personal gain. The money was allegedly diverted to lawmakers and their associates in a corruption scandal that has sparked protests in Manila; more than 700,000 gathered on Monday to demand tougher action. 4. North Korea rescinds invitation to U.S. envoy. Pyongyang cancelled its invitation to U.S. diplomat Robert King, ambassador for North Korean human rights issues, who planned to travel to Pyongyang on Saturday in hopes of securing the release of ailing American missionary Kenneth Bae. Bae has been held in North Korea since November of last year, when he was detained for committing "hostile acts." It is as yet unclear why Pyongyang cancelled the visit. 5. China opposes Syria strike. Official Chinese media and think tanks are warning strongly against Syrian strikes, insisting no action should be taken until a UN investigation determines the origin of the chemical attacks. China is a signatory to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons but is highly unlikely to support any international military action in Syria. China has quietly funded Bashar al-Assad’s military, supplying $300 million worth of arms between 2007 and 2010. Since the civil war began, the United States imposed sanctions on the China Precision Machinery Import and Export Corporation for allegedly providing arms to the Syrian army. As a veto-holding member of the UN Security Council, any UN action taken in Syria would have to have China’s approval. China’s insistence on "non-interference" in other countries’ affairs, coupled with its previous trade with the Syrian military, means that this is highly unlikely to happen. Bonus: North Korea on "ice." A recently released study in the North Korea Review has brought attention to significant phenomenon: the common use of methamphetamine in North Korea. According to one researcher, 40 to 50 percent of the population are "seriously addicted" to "bingdu," or "ice." (This estimate is thought to be high, but the DPRK’s drug addiction has been documented before.)

Sharone Tobias and Will Piekos look at the top stories in Asia this week. 1. China fines milk formula companies. The Chinese government has fined six milk formula companies a total of $110 million for anti-competitive behavior and price fixing, the largest fine the Chinese government has ever instituted for violations of antitrust laws. Five of the companies are foreign, hailing from France, New Zealand, the Netherlands, and the United States, and one company is based in Hong Kong. The price of milk formula has risen 30 percent since 2008, when Chinese-made milk formula was linked to infant deaths and consumers rushed to buy foreign brands. Chinese state-run media has run multiple front-page articles about the case. Just days before, Fonterra, one of the companies fined by the government, recalled thirty-eight tons of contaminated whey protein used in baby formula, another scare in China’s food safety crisis. 2. China releases promising trade numbers. China’s July trade data revealed promising signs that China’s economy might be stabilizing after a six-month slowdown. Stronger-than-expected global demand for China’s exports—in particular from the United States and Europe, as well as Southeast Asia—also signaled improving global economic prospects, while increased imports in China suggested a strengthening domestic economy. The trade numbers improve China’s chances of achieving this year’s target for economic growth of 7.5 percent, already China’s lowest in decades. 3. Japan lodges protest with China over island dispute. Japan has summoned a China envoy to protest an unusually long visit by Chinese coast guard vessels to waters close to the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea. Chinese ships have been encroaching upon territorial waters on a near-daily basis, but those visits usually last only a few hours; the latest visit lasted twenty-eight hours. The small, uninhabited islands have been a source of dispute for decades, and tensions reignited in September when the Japanese government nationalized the islands. 4. Thirty Muslim Rohingya escape Thai jail. Thirty Rohingya asylum seekers escaped jail in southern Thailand where they were being held, along with 1,700 others, for illegally crossing the border. The Rohingya are a Muslim minority from Myanmar who have been the target of ethnically-charged attacks by Buddhists in the country. 5. Taiwan lifts economic sanctions against the Philippines. The Taiwanese government has ended a three month-long freeze on trade with the Philippines, in effect ever since an incident on May 9 that left one Taiwanese fisherman dead. The Philippine government apologized to the family of the fisherman killed and has said it will bring murder charges against the eight coast guard personnel who shot at the man. In China, the "Walking Dead" get thirsty too. Han, a Chinese drink vendor, faked his death at the hands of China’s chengguan, an unarmed, semi-official enforcement force, hoping to gain compensation for the his death. Angry that the chengguan were forcing drink vendors to move their stands and were confiscating their merchandise, Han and his accomplices pretended he had been killed; their plan fell apart when Han, suffering under a sheet for two hours while he was "dead," was caught drinking a bottle of water.

Sharone Tobias and Will Piekos look at the top five stories in Asia this week. 1. Tensions between Taiwan, Philippines escalate. The Philippine navy opened fire on a Taiwanese fishing vessel last week in disputed waters, killing one man on board and igniting a new round of tensions in the South China Sea. Though Philippine officials (including the president) have expressed their sympathies, Taiwan has rejected these apologies as lacking “sincerity.”  In response, Taipei recalled its envoy to the Philippines, announced a hiring freeze of Filipino workers, and held military drills. Yesterday, the Philippine envoy to Taiwan advised thousands of Filipino workers not to leave their homes. The incident and the heavy-handed response by Taiwan will likely dim prospects of cooperation between the two neighbors in solving territorial disputes in the South China Sea. 2. Chinese journalist’s scoop leads to sacked top official. Liu Tienan, deputy director of China’s National Development and Reform Commission, was dismissed for corruption this week. Journalist Luo Changping published an online report five months ago of Liu’s off-the-books business deals, threats to kill his mistress, and fabricated academic qualifications. A China Daily editorial mentioned that this is the first time an official at the ministerial level has been investigated under the new administration, and it is the highest-level dismissal amid a crackdown on corruption under Xi Jinping. 3. Four East Asian nations granted permanent observer status in Arctic Council. In addition to Italy and India, China, Singapore, South Korea, and Japan were accepted as permanent observers in the Arctic Council. They will observe the eight Arctic member nations who debate and establish rules for the Arctic, as melting ice opens the area to political and economic competition. Chinese statements generally have been diplomatic, and a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman states that China recognizes Arctic countries’ sovereignty, rights, and jurisdiction in the area. The melting ice has made abundant supplies of oil, natural gas, and minerals far more accessible and have shorten shipping routes for trade and fishing, an economic opportunity these countries do not want to pass up. 4. EU prepares probe into Chinese telecom firms. The European Union (EU) has warned that it is prepared to open an anti-dumping and an anti-subsidy investigation of Chinese telecommunication firms such as Huawei and ZTE. The EU will not act immediately in hopes that the two sides can come to some agreement, but China’s reaction does not bode well for a deal: a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that China would take “assertive” measures to “defend our lawful interests and rights” according to World Trade Organization rules and Chinese laws. The inquiry would be the first initiated by the European Commission itself without a complaint by European companies. 5. Thousands protest petrochemical plant in Kunming. Traffic was shut down on Saturday as over 2,500 citizens marched in Kunming in southwestern China to protest construction of a new petrochemical plant. China National Petroleum Company is planning on building an oil refinery eighteen miles from Kunming’s city center, which would produce 500,000 tons of the chemical paraxylene, a carcinogen, annually. The protest was peaceful and seems to have been somewhat successful—Kunming mayor Li Wenrong sympathized with the protestors and promised immediate change, though did not specify as to what that change might be. This protest is one of a growing number that seem to force local governments to reconsider large-scale polluting investment projects. Bonus: Massive counterfeit condom factories busted in China. Police in central and eastern China busted multiple factories producing fake condoms, seizing supplies worth nearly $8 million. Counterfeit condoms cost roughly $0.03 to produce and were sold for one yuan, or around $0.16.

In an excellent overview of the political and economic changes that occurred in the Philippines in 2012, the Financial Times this week discussed how the country, long the “sick man” economy of Southeast Asia, is primed for a significant take off, putting it in a much higher class of fast-growing economies, like Indonesia, India, China, and others. The paper rightly gives credit to the president, Benigno Aquino III, for overseeing new investments in infrastructure, taking a personal interest in—and reaching—a real peace deal with rebels in the south, taking on the Catholic church to make birth control more accessible in one of the most devoutly Catholic nations in the world, and targeting high-profile corruption cases. To be honest, like many Southeast Asia analysts, I did not expect very much from the Aquino administration, and his policies—and his willingness and ability to enact them—have come as a major surprise. Though well-liked before becoming president, Aquino seemed like a relatively aimless inheritor of his famed family name, having few signature issues or legislative attempts to his name in politics previously. He is, by far, the biggest shock of any Southeast Asian leader that has come in the past five years, even more so than the political competency of Yingluck Shinawatra in Thailand. In 2013, the outlook for the Philippines is, if anything, brighter. With the peace deal in the south, the area can finally reach its economic potential, while the increased access to birth control should help the population stabilize and result in a smaller but more effective workforce, and force less Filipinos to head abroad to find work, as has happened for decades. The growing confidence in the country’s domestic investors —the Financial Times cites the Ayala Group plowing some $2 billion in the Philippines in 2012—is bound to eventually also help spark greater foreign investment, though the country’s old image still hinders it. Still, South Korean, Chinese, Indian, and some Western Information Technology firms already have seen the potential. 2013 looks very strong for the archipelago.

Over the past six months, the insurgency in southern Thailand, which seemed to be cooling off late last year, has once again heated up. Incidents of daily violence are up, and the insurgents are using increasingly sophisticated bombing and gunning techniques. The recent ceasefire deal in the southern Philippines between Manila and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front has shifted attention to the south Thailand insurgency, yet the prospect of change in the Thai south looks remote. In a new piece in The National, I analyze the prospects for the Thai south. Read the whole piece here.

On Sunday in Asia, the Philippine government reportedly signed a preliminary peace agreement with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), according to the Associated Press and other services in Manila. If this deal is successful, it would end an insurgency that has raged in the south for decades, and which at times has seemed impossible to shut down —the rebels and various Philippine governments have been negotiating over a potential ceasefire and peace deal for more than fifteen years. In between negotiations, various governments would step up the military’s attacks on the MILF, and for a period in the 2000s, any peace seemed hopeless. According to the AP and other sources, some 120,000 people have died in the fighting in the Philippines’s south, and the violence also has seriously hindered economic growth in the south. But there are reasons to believe that this time, the peace is for real. For one, the Philippine armed forces increasingly realize that they have other threats to focus on, namely China —a threat for which they are woefully unprepared, as reflected by the horrendous state of the Philippine navy, which has been exposed in the current crisis over the South China Sea. Secondly, the agreement offers people in the south more than previous negotiations, promising them a potential Muslim autonomous region in the south that would be better governed, and less likely to descend into a mafia state than previous efforts at autonomy. Third, President Benigno Aquino III seems to enjoy more genuine trust from rebel leaders, and people in the south, than previous presidents dating back to Joseph Estrada. Finally, this proposed peace deal, by creating the possibility for real economic development, offers the chance to reduce inequality in the south, and reduce the anger among poorer Muslim groups in the south against the generally wealthier Christian minority in Mindanao.

One of the cardinal rules of Chinese diplomacy is that China doesn’t mix business with politics. The precept fits in nicely with the primacy that China places on sovereignty, respecting the right of a country—or at least the leaders of the moment—to determine how things ought to work. And, of course, it also provides Beijing with the opportunity to rationalize its lack of enthusiasm for tough foreign policy action in places such as Iran, Syria, Sudan, or Zimbabwe as a matter of principle. Of course, as I have written elsewhere, doing business in any country—particularly when you supply a country with arms as Beijing has done in both Sudan and Zimbabwe—is in fact mixing business with politics. And the ongoing competition between Beijing and Taipei to purchase diplomatic relations with small, often poor, states is nothing if not the blatant mixing of business with politics. So on the face of it, the claim is rather silly. Moreover, there have been more subtle cases in the past—such as when Beijing postponed a purchase of Airbus planes after then-President Sarkozy agreed to meet with the Dalai Lama in 2008 and its rare earth export slowdown to Japan in the wake of the East China Sea dispute in 2010, to name a few—that suggest Beijing has not been unwilling to exert a bit of economic leverage to punish a perceived political transgression. In fact, it appears that Beijing’s willingness to mix business with politics is increasingly an open secret.  In the midst of China’s dispute with the Philippines over control of a shoal in the South China Sea, Beijing has called on Chinese travel agencies to suspend tours to the Philippines. There have also been some fruit shipments blocked from the Philippines to China, although this problem apparently began before the standoff in the South China Sea. A similar theme is playing out this month across a couple of oceans. The state-supported Global Times has called for Beijing to suspend some economic cooperation with the United Kingdom in retaliation for Prime Minister David Cameron meeting with the Dalai Lama. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has chimed in by saying that the meeting “Seriously interfered with China’s internal affairs, undermined China’s core interests, and hurt the feelings of the Chinese people.” And of course, Tokyo felt Beijing’s political sting when it hosted the World Uyghur Congress, an exile group opposed to China’s policies in Xinjiang that is considered by Beijing to be a terrorist organization. Beijing cancelled a meeting between Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi and Hiromasa Yonekura, the Chairman of the Japanese business group Keidanren, to demonstrate its displeasure with Tokyo. Despite Beijing’s massive economic weight, however, its efforts to throw that weight around are unlikely to succeed. The problem for Beijing, as I see it, is three-fold. First, on the rare occasion that anyone listens to China’s protestations and does what Beijing wants, it seems that Beijing doesn’t then return the favor. (See, for example, President Obama postponing a meeting with the Dalai Lama before his trip to Beijing in 2009, and China’s ungenerous treatment of the U.S. president in return.) Once countries see that China takes without giving back, no one will want to give any more. Second, it is very difficult to use economic leverage to get other states to adopt your interests as their own when they really don’t want to. Here Beijing can look to the United States for instruction. At a recent meeting I attended, when a senior Myanmar/Burmese official was asked whether the U.S. sanctions had any impact on the country’s decision to transition to democracy and open the economy, the official said—rather unsurprisingly, I think—that they really hadn’t, because the sanctions had been around for years. Third, Beijing may simply be in danger of overestimating its economic leverage. In the case of the Philippines, for example, even though China is the Philippines’ third largest trading partner, the Chinese are not among the top three tourist groups visiting the Philippines and Filipino Tourism Secretary Ramon Jimenez Jr. seems unfazed by China’s pullout. He has simply suggested that the Philippines will look to Japan and other “traditionally stronger markets” to make up the difference. China has long mixed business with politics in a most unattractive fashion; it just hasn’t been willing to admit it. Will it make a difference if Beijing finally fesses up? My guess is that greater honesty won’t make much of a difference outside China, where everyone is pretty well aware of the gap between Chinese rhetoric and Chinese actions on the ground. The opportunity rests within China itself. If China’s leaders can take the first step to acknowledge honestly what it is they are doing, they may be able to take the second step and realize that what they are doing is not, in fact, yielding what they want. That, at least, might put them a step ahead of the United States, where we are still waiting for Cuba to see the error of its ways.

China continues to raise the heat in its dispute with the Philippines over the sovereignty of Scarborough Shoal/Huangyan Island. On Monday, He Jia, an anchor on China’s state-run CCTV, mistakenly declared that "China has unquestionable sovereignty over the Philippines" rather than just over the disputed island. On Tuesday, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Fu Ying warned a Philippine diplomat that China was fully prepared to do anything to respond to escalation. Deep-water drilling has begun near islands in the South China Sea and Chinese travel agencies have reportedly suspended tours to the Philippines. Chinese netizens are fully in support of the claims, and have in many instances criticized the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for not taking more assertive action. As with previous territorial disputes in East Asia these days (see China-Vietnam, China-Japan, and Korea-Japan), the political, diplomatic, and military maneuvering has a cyber component. On April 20, Chinese hackers attacked the website of the University of the Philippines. The next day, Filipino hackers struck back with the defacement of Chinese websites. On the 23rd and 24th, the two sides again traded tit-for-tat attacks (a very useful timeline up until April 30 can be found here). Attacks have continued over the last week; today attackers pasted the Chinese flag on the website of the Philippines News Agency. From almost the beginning of the attacks, the Philippines government has called for both sides to stop. On April 22, a Philippines government spokesperson said, “We call on citizens, including ours, to exercise civil temperance.” On April 25, the Philippines’ Department of Science and Technology and Information and Communications Technology Office declared that the attacks were neither sanctioned nor condoned, and on May 10 a spokesman went further in warning that such attacks "will not benefit anyone and could possibly lead to bigger problems in the future for the Philippines and China and escalate the already tense situation at Panatag Shoal (Scarborough Shoal)." This is not a misplaced worry as freelance attacks could make it much more difficult for the two sides to communicate and signal intentions. Unfortunately, there has been silence from Beijing on the issue. China’s leaders seem to be embracing the conflict, or at least the prospect of conflict, as a welcome distraction from the problems of Chen Guangcheng and Bo Xilai. As Michael Yip and Craig Weber argue, the Chinese government – after years of enrolling students in patriotic education that stresses a history of national humiliation – needs to align itself with and divert away from nationalistic responses to real and perceived slights. Political hacking acts as a diversion–venting resentment away from the regime, focusing web users’ ire on outside actors, and maintaining the government’s nationalistic credentials. When China’s Minister of Defense General Liang Guanglie was at the Pentagon this week, he talked about how China wanted to work to improve cybersecurity. Beijing could gain a great deal of credibility by doing what the Philippines has done: call on both sides to stop the attacks.