Deja-vu in North Korea? Succession 1994 vs. 2011

As events unfold surrounding the succession from Kim Jong-il to Kim Jong-un, it is clear that North Korea is using the 1994 succession from Kim Il-sung to Kim Jong-il as its template for managing the current transition. However, as one observes these two parallel processes, it becomes clear that while North Korea may have this template, differing conditions in 2011 compared to those that existed in 1994 may prove fatal to successful implementation of this succession. Among the key differences in the two processes are the following:

On this basis, it should be clear that the North Korea Kim Jong-un will lead is not his father’s North Korea, but a country that has already embarked on a process of inevitable change. What is not clear is whether a collective leadership that is virtually unchanged–with the exception of Kim Jong-un assuming his father’s roles–fully recognizes and appreciates the difficulty of the challenges they face or the necessity of transformation.