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April 25, 2018

Ireland
Irish Flag and Apple Logo Tax Avoidance and the Irish Balance of Payments

At this point, profit shifting by multinational corporations doesn’t distort Ireland’s balance of payments; it constitutes Ireland’s balance of payments.

May 7, 2007

Economics
Central Kansas, not central park

My plans have evolved slightly, so I am going pretty much directly from England to central Kansas (i.e. tornado land).  In practice, that I means I probably won't be able to resume regular postin…

May 18, 2018

International Economic Policy
A Bad Deal on Currency (with Korea) A Bad Deal on Currency (with Korea)

Korea has indicated that it will, very gradually, start to disclose a bit more about its direct activities in the foreign exchange market. The Korean announcement presumably was meant to front-run it…

May 16, 2018

Argentina
How Many Reserves Does a Country Like Argentina Need? How Many Reserves Does a Country Like Argentina Need?

The IMF’s reserve metric tends to overstate the reserve needs of current account surplus countries with little external debt, and understates the reserve needs of current account deficit countries wi…

May 11, 2018

Eurozone
Ireland Exports its Leprechaun Ireland Exports its Leprechaun

Irish tax distortions have a material impact on aggregate eurozone economic data.

May 8, 2018

China
Disaggregating the Fall in China's Current Account Surplus Since 2007 Disaggregating the Fall in China's Current Account Surplus Since 2007

China's current account surplus is almost certainly about $100 billion larger than officially reported, and the falling current account surplus masks a persistent manufacturing surplus.

May 3, 2018

China
The Rising Bilateral Deficit with China and the Negotiations Over China 2025 The Rising Bilateral Deficit with China and the Negotiations Over China 2025

A short review of the March U.S. trade data and a lot of speculation about the arc of the Sino-American economic relationship in light of the non-negotiability of Made in China 2025.

April 24, 2018

International Economic Policy
Asia's Central Banks and Sovereign Funds Are Back Asia's Central Banks and Sovereign Funds Are Back

East Asia (China, Japan, and the NIEs) ran a $600 billion current account surplus in 2017. "Official" (central bank and sovereign fund) outflows accounted for about half of that. Asia's foreign excha…

April 19, 2018

Puerto Rico
The Oversight Board’s Latest Fiscal Plan for Puerto Rico is Still Too Optimistic The Oversight Board’s Latest Fiscal Plan for Puerto Rico is Still Too Optimistic

The power is off in Puerto Rico, again. It may not be restored for a day or two. Puerto Rico obviously has yet to fully recover from Maria’s devastation. Tax revenues this fiscal year are off by o…