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January 17, 2018

China
A Few Words on China’s Holdings of U.S. Bonds A Few Words on China’s Holdings of U.S. Bonds

A primer on China reserve watching.

April 18, 2018

Cuba
Cuba After the Castros What Is Cuba’s Post-Castro Future?

Miguel Diaz-Canel, set to replace Raul Castro as president of Cuba after sixty years of Castro rule, will be faced with the challenges of implementing economic reform and sidestepping regional isolat…

May 21, 2018

Argentina
Argentina: Sustainable, Yes, with Adjustment.  But Sustainable with A High Probability? Argentina: Sustainable, Yes, with Adjustment. But Sustainable with A High Probability?

Probably only connoisseurs of IMF Access Policy debates understand the importance of being judged “sustainable with a high probability” by 19th Street. That’s what unlocks the keys to the kingdom,…

May 16, 2018

Argentina
How Many Reserves Does a Country Like Argentina Need? How Many Reserves Does a Country Like Argentina Need?

The IMF’s reserve metric tends to overstate the reserve needs of current account surplus countries with little external debt, and understates the reserve needs of current account deficit countries wi…

January 3, 2018

China
China’s Impact on the U.S. Bond Market Gets Too Much Attention.   And Europe's Too Little China’s Impact on the U.S. Bond Market Gets Too Much Attention. And Europe's Too Little

The ECB has almost certainly had a bigger impact on U.S. rates over the last three years than the PBOC, without buying (or selling) any Treasuries.

May 8, 2018

China
Disaggregating the Fall in China's Current Account Surplus Since 2007 Disaggregating the Fall in China's Current Account Surplus Since 2007

China's current account surplus is almost certainly about $100 billion larger than officially reported, and the falling current account surplus masks a persistent manufacturing surplus.

May 8, 2018

Iran Nuclear Agreement
Kerry-Zarif-RTX22N89.jpg The Impact of the Iran Nuclear Agreement

President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran deal jeopardizes the unprecedented visibility international inspectors now have into Iran’s nuclear program.

May 7, 2018

Emerging Markets
Should We Fear a Tighten Tantrum? Should We Fear a Tighten Tantrum?

Back in May 2013, then-Fed Chair Ben Bernanke roiled emerging markets (EM) with the mere suggestion that the Fed might soon pare back its monthly asset purchases under so-called quantitative easi…

July 26, 2017

Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico’s “Voluntary” Restructuring of GDB Bonds

Puerto Rico’s Oversight Board didn’t object to the terms of Puerto Rico’s proposed restructuring of the Government Development Bank bonds (and selected deposits) so it looks like the GDB restructurin…