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May 25, 2016

Monetary Policy
Europe Custodial Holdings Dan Drezner Asked Three Questions

He gets three half answers. Drezner’s first question: “Just how much third-party holdings of U.S. debt does Saudi Arabia have?” Wish I knew. The custodial data doesn’t really help us out much. …

January 17, 2018

China
A Few Words on China’s Holdings of U.S. Bonds A Few Words on China’s Holdings of U.S. Bonds

A primer on China reserve watching.

May 16, 2018

Argentina
How Many Reserves Does a Country Like Argentina Need? How Many Reserves Does a Country Like Argentina Need?

The IMF’s reserve metric tends to overstate the reserve needs of current account surplus countries with little external debt, and understates the reserve needs of current account deficit countries wi…

January 3, 2018

China
China’s Impact on the U.S. Bond Market Gets Too Much Attention.   And Europe's Too Little China’s Impact on the U.S. Bond Market Gets Too Much Attention. And Europe's Too Little

The ECB has almost certainly had a bigger impact on U.S. rates over the last three years than the PBOC, without buying (or selling) any Treasuries.

May 8, 2018

China
Disaggregating the Fall in China's Current Account Surplus Since 2007 Disaggregating the Fall in China's Current Account Surplus Since 2007

China's current account surplus is almost certainly about $100 billion larger than officially reported, and the falling current account surplus masks a persistent manufacturing surplus.

May 7, 2018

Emerging Markets
Should We Fear a Tighten Tantrum? Should We Fear a Tighten Tantrum?

Back in May 2013, then-Fed Chair Ben Bernanke roiled emerging markets (EM) with the mere suggestion that the Fed might soon pare back its monthly asset purchases under so-called quantitative easi…

July 26, 2017

Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico’s “Voluntary” Restructuring of GDB Bonds

Puerto Rico’s Oversight Board didn’t object to the terms of Puerto Rico’s proposed restructuring of the Government Development Bank bonds (and selected deposits) so it looks like the GDB restructurin…

April 19, 2018

Puerto Rico
The Oversight Board’s Latest Fiscal Plan for Puerto Rico is Still Too Optimistic The Oversight Board’s Latest Fiscal Plan for Puerto Rico is Still Too Optimistic

The power is off in Puerto Rico, again. It may not be restored for a day or two. Puerto Rico obviously has yet to fully recover from Maria’s devastation. Tax revenues this fiscal year are off by o…

April 13, 2018

Thailand
Previewing the U.S. Treasury’s April Foreign Exchange Report Previewing the U.S. Treasury’s April Foreign Exchange Report

The U.S. Treasury Department’s next foreign exchange report is due on April 15—so it should come out soon, maybe even tonight. Normally the section on China attracts all the attention. But righ…