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September 26, 2004

Capital Flows
Confronting Iran would be a lot easier if the Saudis had more spare capacity

David Sanger looks at Iran and North Korea’s nuclear ambitions in today’s New York Times. Sanger suggests it will be hard to stop Iran’s quest for nukes, no matter what the nature of Iran’s regime -…

February 21, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
The confused conservatives on the Washington Post oped page …

The Washington Post put out an oped on the partial privatization of Social Security over the weekend, which Kevin Drum appropriately jumped on.One item in the oped jumped out at me:The second risk i…

January 25, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
When will the bond market wake up

I know, I know, Morgan Stanley’s investors have spoken, and there is no bond market bubble. But the federal government certainly is swimming in a sea of red ink.I hope we have asked the Bank of Japan…

February 26, 2005

Capital Flows
Geoeconomics: What can we learn from the end of the “real” Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates?

Dan Drezner started a post with the Triffin dilemma, so I figure I too can digress into the realm of history.The Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates (Bretton Woods 1) collapsed, in some sens…

January 25, 2005

Emerging Markets
Memo to John Taylor: In what sense was the Argentine crisis contained?

David Sanger goes back to his roots as the New York Times’ Treasury correspondent, and outlines the tensions that the dollar’s slide over the past few years has created. Sanger digs up a bunch of ol…

January 26, 2005

Monetary Policy
The US dollar fails the Chinese test

So China wants to adopt a basket peg because it no longer thinks the dollar is a stable store of value. To quote Mr. Fan, Director of China’s National Institute for Economic Research:The U.S. dollar …

May 22, 2005

Financial Markets
That strong renminbi (ok, that strong dollar)

The RMB has appreciated by about 7% against one of China’s major trading partners this year. Not the US, obviously. But that doesn’t mean that China is not exposed to moves in the dollar-euro, or t…

June 11, 2005

United States
April trade, one day late

Maybe my title should be "Boeing is back"The surge in Arpil exports stemmed in part from a surge in Boeing’s monthly exports. But the increase in aircraft goes beyond just a monthly blip. By my cal…

August 10, 2005

China
Will an (onshore) forward market for the RMB change the world?

Dan Drezner and David Altig are waxing enthusiastic about China's decision to allow domestic banks to trade the RMB forward - a development that in theory will help Chinese firms to better "hedge…

August 24, 2005

United States
Are we ignoring the United States’ strengths?

Anantha Nageswaran of Libran Asset Management in Singapore has submitted a set of (lengthy) comments that respond, in some sense, to many of the points I and others have raised on this blog.   Check …