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January 24, 2018

United States
Adjustment Is Hard, Especially if it Involves the Dollar Adjustment Is Hard, Especially if it Involves the Dollar

Trump’s tax cut has not, to date, unleashed a wave of global demand for U.S. dollar assets. In fact, the dollar weakened as prospects for the tax cut—and associated rise in the U.S. federal budget…

November 28, 2017

China
U.S. President Donald Trump takes part in a welcoming ceremony with China's President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China. Trump's Looming Hard Line on China

U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s first visit to Beijing was an exhibition of mutual flattery. China rolled out the red carpet for what it termed a 'state visit plus,' replete with unprecedented pomp …

February 22, 2018

Puerto Rico
Counting Chickens Long Before They Hatch: Should Hurricane Maria Be Modeled as a Positive Growth Shock for Puerto Rico? Counting Chickens Long Before They Hatch: Should Hurricane Maria Be Modeled as a Positive Growth Shock for Puerto Rico?

Puerto Rico’s latest fiscal plan appears to use a best case scenario as its base case. It consequently doesn’t provide a realistic benchmark for evaluating Puerto Rico’s long-run capacity to pay.

February 16, 2018

Cybersecurity
Maersk Cyber Week in Review: February 16, 2018

This week: accusing Russia over NotPetya, cyber threats to the United States, gTLDs, and more on the Equifax breach. 

February 16, 2018

United States
Mapping Capital Flows Into the U.S. Over the Last Thirty Years Mapping Capital Flows Into the U.S. Over the Last Thirty Years

Up until 2014, the growth in central bank dollar reserves closely mapped to the increase in U.S. net external debt. The past few years have been different: for the first time in a long time, yield-st…

February 16, 2018

North Korea
KCNA Avoiding War With North Korea

The U.S. military is prepared for a number of contingencies with regard to North Korea, but the best path forward is diplomacy aimed at denuclearization.

February 14, 2018

Italy
Grillo and Di Maio What to Know About Italy’s 2018 Elections

Italy’s elections will shape the country’s response to economic stagnation, migration woes, and European integration, with repercussions across the continent.

February 13, 2018

United States
The Marshall Plan Holds Lessons for Present Tensions With Russia, Benn Steil Writes in New Book

February 13, 2018—The Marshall Plan—the costly and ambitious initiative to revive western Europe after World War II—marked the true beginning of the Cold War, argues Benn Steil. Bringing to bear …

February 13, 2018

United States
FA MA 2018 Cover Walking Away From World Order: Weighing Trump’s First Year of Foreign Policy

“Nobody really knew what to expect when Donald Trump became U.S. president. Would he disrupt the status quo or maintain it? Blow himself up or escape unscathed? One year in, the answer is yes,” write…

February 12, 2018

China
The Belt and Road Initiative Didn't Quite Live up to its Hype in 2017 The Belt and Road Initiative Didn't Quite Live up to its Hype in 2017

China's balance of payments data doesn't show any material increase in the pace of offshore lending.