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May 12, 2005

United States
The sustainability of the current account deficit, once again

The market seems to have concluded that there is no need to put any pressure on the US to reduce its large external deficits. The dollar is up, at least against the euro. So is the renminbi for th…

April 30, 2005

Monetary Policy
So, have central banks lost interest in Treasuries?

Two apologies in advance: First, this is one my wonkier/ data-intensive kind of posts. Second, this post responds to a subscription only Wall Street Journal C4 article by Agnes Crane that ran last …

May 27, 2005

United States
Bretton Woods Two and Trade Politics

The interest rate on the 10 year Treasury note is somewhere between 4.0-4.1% -- and the US seems to be having no trouble financing its current account (or its budget) deficit right now. The risk of…

May 17, 2005

China
So, is the Bush Administration for bashing China or against it?

Let no one think the Bush Administration doesn’t occasionally try to have it both ways. A month ago the Bush Administration ratcheted up the verbal pressure on China. China was ready to change its…

April 13, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Economy strong (for now), fiscal deficit not falling (by much)

I have always thought the argument that attributed the widening trade deficit to the absence of growth abroad was a bit deceptive, for the simple reason that in aggregate, growth abroad has been quit…

July 18, 2005

United States
The May TIC data

Sorry about the unimaginative headline.I guess the TIC data was sort of blah. Net inflows were not as strong as in January or February, nor as weak as in March and April.One thing I don’t understand…

July 13, 2005

Monetary Policy
The euro/dollar, valuation losses and central bank reserves

India, Thailand and Korea all have fewer reserves than they did at the end of March. At least in dollar terms. Their euros and euro-denominated bonds are not worth what they used to be.Malaysia - …

May 31, 2005

Monetary Policy
The governor of China’s central bank might want to take notice

The former governor of Thailand’s central bank is being held accountable for squandering Thailand’s foreign exchange reserves defending the Baht peg back in 1997, and in a big way (though he is appea…

June 19, 2005

China
Two articles on China. One good. One not so good.

Reuters has done a nice wrap up of what we know -- and more importantly what we don’t know -- about how China manages its reserves. They correctly note that the TIC data misses so much that it, alon…

June 20, 2005

United States
Setser and Roubini respond to Levey and Brown: deficits do matter

The current issue of Foreign Affairs contains the rebuttal that Nouriel and I wrote to the David Levey and Stuart Brown’s "Current account deficits do not matter" article that appeared in the March/…